IS COVID-19 weakening in strength? Some doctors think it is.

[+ keroscenefire]

Well, Singapore is certainly very warm and humid everywhere at all times, but I wouldn't describe their outbreak as "bad." They have identified a lot of cases in their overcrowded migrant worker quarters, which seems to confirm that living in crowded communal conditions such as Rio's favelas doesn't bode well for the Covid fight in those places. According to today's latest data:

Singapore

Confirmed

35,836

+544

Recovered

23,175

Deaths

24

So for 24 deaths out of 35,836 confirmed cases (and that doesn't even include any asymptomatic cases which haven't been found), that yields a case fatality rate of under 0.07%, if my math is OK. If that's "bad," what does it need to be "good"? I don't consider 24 deaths in total for the entire pandemic for a city of 5.7 million to be alarming.

As for Ecuador, although it lies on the equator, like Singapore, much of the population, such as in the capital, lies at a high elevation, so it's not as hot and steamy as you might think. Quito sits at an elevation of 2850 m. According to Wikipedia,

"Quito is in a unique situation among cities, as it is one of the few cities located on the equator and it is the only city on Earth in which the climate changes depending on what hemisphere the place is in, in the Southern Hemisphere (which the vast majority of Quito falls under), the city has a subtropical highland climate (Köppen climate classification Cfb), while in the Northern Hemisphere, the city has a warm-summer mediterranean climate (Köppen climate classification Csb). Because of its elevation and location on the equator, Quito has a fairly constant cool climate. The average afternoon high temperature is 21.4 °C (70.5 °F) with an average night-time low of 9.8 °C (49.6 °F).[18] The annual average temperature is 15.6 °C (60.1 °F).[19] The city has only two seasons: dry and wet. The dry season, June through September (4 months), is referred to as summer; the wet season, October through May (8 months), is referred to as winter. Annual precipitation, depending on location, is about 1,000 mm (39 in)."

 

Yeah Singapore hasn't been that bad overall..just with their migrant population. As for Ecuador, the biggest outbreak actually has been in the large port city of Guayaquil. This city lies on a muggy coastal delta with average temps in the 80s year round. It does appear that an underfunded and ill-prepared hospital system contributed to the deadly consequences of the outbreak there though.

[bostonman]

As with everything else Covid-19 related, we're discovering things as we go. It would be phenomenal if the virus itself is weakening, but until we have some evidence of that, it's best to assume it's not.

 

On the other hand, we also have to start thinking about the very strong possibility that we will be living with this virus for a long time to come. In which case, we have to be willing to make some sort of peace with it - that is, we need to find ways to live our lives as we need to, knowing that we may not be living as safely as we are used to. We will have to live with the risk around us. The majority of us can't stay under "modified house arrest" forever, and though wearing masks and "social distancing" are still going to be important, we're going to get to the point where we're more willing to take the risks of going without - that's human nature. We will just have to be more conscious of other's needs as we try to carry on. (Unless, of course, people start getting sick again at very high rates, and then we may wind up with another shutdown. I'm hoping that won't happen. But I know it may.)

[mike carey]

Isn't Australias summer type weather generally in the months that we have colder weather and that being said didn't their outbreak come about at the same time ours did?

I'm not stating there's an absolute cause and effect, but Covid entered Australia during their late summer. They were able to isolate the few cases they had, and mostly shut themselves off from the rest of the world as their Autumn began.

Our first case was in mid-summer but there wasn't much spread, or rather not many additional imported cases for several weeks, and it was only in mid-March that the government became really worried and the restrictions were escalated. We had closed our borders to people first from China at the end of January and then Iran, South Korea and Italy. Repatriation flights from Wuhan and from the Diamond Princess in Yokohama were quarantined in remote facilities for 14 days. The borders were closed to non-Australians and quarantine imposed for Australians who returned from 19 March. We (and New Zealand) are easing our restrictions now (I had my first drive out of Canberra yesterday, and back today), although we are easing one or two measures then waiting two weeks to see what happens before easing some more. It's winter now (-2 to 13C tomorrow in Canberra) so we will soon find out whether a combination of the easing and the cold weather causes a spike. (Most of the recent cases here have been of people in the quarantine hotels where recent arrivals are confined, so very few are from community spread.)

Edited June 3, 2020 by mike carey

[+ bigjoey]

As with everything else Covid-19 related, we're discovering things as we go. It would be phenomenal if the virus itself is weakening, but until we have some evidence of that, it's best to assume it's not.

 

On the other hand, we also have to start thinking about the very strong possibility that we will be living with this virus for a long time to come. In which case, we have to be willing to make some sort of peace with it - that is, we need to find ways to live our lives as we need to, knowing that we may not be living as safely as we are used to. We will have to live with the risk around us. The majority of us can't stay under "modified house arrest" forever, and though wearing masks and "social distancing" are still going to be important, we're going to get to the point where we're more willing to take the risks of going without - that's human nature. We will just have to be more conscious of other's needs as we try to carry on. (Unless, of course, people start getting sick again at very high rates, and then we may wind up with another shutdown. I'm hoping that won't happen. But I know it may.)

 

Yes, I think we will adjust our behavior to the known risk. Every year, we accept the risk of the annual flu season which can kill tens of thousands of people. Some people get the flu shots and others do not. Some stay away from crowds and others do not. We all have different risk tolerance levels and act accordingly.

[Rudynate]

I think that is somewhat unknown at this point. It definitely is the case with some viruses like influenza, that the lower the initial viral load, the less severe of disease. While other viruses like norovirus can sicken people with a very small number of infectious particles. There has kinda been conflicting reports with COVID-19 and the main way to test this through "challenge" studies that give people various doses of the virus under experimental conditions is considered unethical with a virus that is potentially so deadly.

 

 

My understanding is that there is a treshhold number below which disease is unlikely.

[+ LIguy]

Well just like the American Express card commercials used to say....Don't leave home without it....that's exactly what i do and will keep doing with masks.

Just an FYI A doctor told a group of us in a store one day that if we keep medical masks in our car that we should keep them in a brown paper bag but left without saying why. I keep 2 in my glove compartment in a brown bag at all times.

[mike carey]

A doctor told a group of us in a store one day that if we keep medical masks in our car that we should keep them in a brown paper bag but left without saying why. I keep 2 in my glove compartment in a brown bag at all times.

I understand that being in a paper bag is the most unfavourable environment for the virus.

[bostonman]

I understand that being in a paper bag is the most unfavourable environment for the virus.

 

This immediately makes me wonder if "The Unknown Comic" (made famous on "The Gong Show") was more prescient than he realized?

[orville]

I thought this was interesting. Some doctors in Italy are saying that the strength of the Coronavirus they are seeing in current tests has a much weaker viral load than what they were seeing previously.

Luc Montagnier, 2008 Nobel Prize for discovering HIV already said that we can get rid of HIV even if exposed multiple times, as long as we have a good immune system, but why COVID could be weakening now has a plausible theory here:

https://www.companyofmen.org/threads/nobel-prize-2008-covid-is-man-made-do-not-accept-a-vaccine.157932/

Edited June 4, 2020 by orville

[+ Pensant]

Well just like the American Express card commercials used to say....Don't leave home without it....that's exactly what i do and will keep doing with masks.

Just an FYI A doctor told a group of us in a store one day that if we keep medical masks in our car that we should keep them in a brown paper bag but left without saying why. I keep 2 in my glove compartment in a brown bag at all times.

I place my N95 in a UV light box every time I use it. And often my wallet, iPhone and keys.

[maninsoma]

Luc Montagnier, 2008 Nobel Prize for discovering HIV already said that we can get rid of HIV even if exposed multiple times, as long as we have a good immune system, but why COVID could be weakening now has a plausible theory here:

https://www.companyofmen.org/threads/nobel-prize-2008-covid-is-man-made-do-not-accept-a-vaccine.157932/

 

Just because he has an important credit in his career doesn't mean he's correct with this theory. After doing some additional reading I would consider what he states to be highly suspect.

[MscleLovr]

I agree @maninsoma I posted this in the related thread https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/luc-montagnier-covid-created-lab/

[orville]

Just because he has an important credit in his career doesn't mean he's correct with this theory. After doing some additional reading I would consider what he states to be highly suspect.

I agree @maninsoma I posted this in the related thread https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/luc-montagnier-covid-created-lab/

Just because he has an important credit in his career, his findings are way more credible than any of our opinions. And we are not talking ANY important credit here but the NOBEL prize. He's obviously way smarter than the rest of us 'average-smart' people, and a laureate expert scientist in his field. He's also not dependant on any employer, corporation or media to conduct or vet his research. Reason why you probably won't read this on any mainstream news media outlet as they typically have liabilities with Big Pharma advertisers and governments. If you read the complete article, he did not work alone but with a biomathematician and the results of his studies have been corroborated by a separate team in India, later forced to remove their paper publication because of "editorial pressure".

Edited June 4, 2020 by orville

[+ sniper]

Luc Montagnier is 87 years old. You also cited him as saying we can clear HIV as logn ad we have a good immune system, for which there's exactly zero documented cases. Maybe he's just losing it in his old age?

 

Linus Pauling won two Nobels and missed a third by probably a couple of months(he was neck and neck with Crick and Watson), but his Vitamin C claims were pretty much all simply not true. Being great at something doesn't mean you aren't able to have poor judgment ever.

 

 

If the second wave is milder, it probably means that the hygiene methods people are adopting will make any initial exposure lower, OR...the virus ran through the most susceptible part of the population first, and the remaining cases will be of people who are in somewhat better on average health to begin with.

[maninsoma]

Just because he has an important credit in his career, his findings are way more credible than any of our opinions. And we are not talking ANY important credit here but the NOBEL prize. He's obviously way smarter than the rest of us 'average-smart' people, and a laureate expert scientist in his field. He's also not dependant on any employer, corporation or media to conduct or vet his research. Reason why you probably won't read this on any mainstream news media outlet as they typically have liabilities with Big Pharma advertisers and governments. If you read the complete article, he did not work alone but with a biomathematician and the results of his studies have been corroborated by a separate team in India, later forced to remove their paper publication because of "editorial pressure".

 

I am not putting myself up as a medical or infectious disease specialist. I merely read another article where people who are experts rebutted Montagnier's claims. One that stuck out to me because it was easy enough for a layperson to understand is that his claim that this new virus had to be man-made because it "contains HIV" is akin to saying that one book contains another because they both have the word "hat" in them multiple times. Not being a genetic expert I don't know whether it's true but I don't see why the medical community wouldn't be supporting Montagnier's theory if it was legitimate rather than publishing articles that indicate the flaws in his logic. Unless you're a major conspiracy theorist it's difficult to believe that every person involved in fighting this plague that does have the educational background to understand things like this would rather throw Montagnier under the bus and let hundreds of thousands of additional people die rather than celebrating his findings and advancing on them to work on treatment or prevention.

 

This reminds of me of Peter Duesberg, a doctor who has been claiming since the late 1980s that HIV does not cause AIDS and that instead drug use and poor nutrition were responsible for AIDS.

[orville]

Luc Montagnier is 87 years old. You also cited him as saying we can clear HIV as logn ad we have a good immune system, for which there's exactly zero documented cases. Maybe he's just losing it in his old age?

 

Linus Pauling won two Nobels and missed a third by probably a couple of months(he was neck and neck with Crick and Watson), but his Vitamin C claims were pretty much all simply not true. Being great at something doesn't mean you aren't able to have poor judgment ever.

 

 

If the second wave is milder, it probably means that the hygiene methods people are adopting will make any initial exposure lower, OR...the virus ran through the most susceptible part of the population first, and the remaining cases will be of people who are in somewhat better on average health to begin with.

Human nature is fantastic. Most ordinary people will overlook 1,000 successes because of 1 fail. No matter all the things the subject of their judgment did right in the past.

You are not factoring that there is an agenda, by big pharma and the media. Reason why the WHO covered the outbreak at the beginning, because of the Chinese government pressure. This I'm not inventing. First they said China did a great job but now the WHO is pointing their fingers at China. It's on the mainstream media now, because it came to light thanks to investigative journalism. Medications and the vaccine are the big business here and they will keep talking about it as the main topic, granted.

You definitely have a blind trust in whatever is fed to you via mainstream media corporations.

Edited June 4, 2020 by orville

[+ sniper]

I don't have to think China did a good job or is at all honest to think it's not manmade. It's quite possible for it to both be true that China's data is fudged and the virus is not manmade. Why does having a Nobel mean his motives are not suspect? Maybe he misses being the center of attention so he's making up shit. Or maybe he's simply losing his marbles.

A scientists's life is not the story of 1000 successes and one fail. It's the story of hundreds of failures, and, if they're lucky, a success or two.

[JayCeeKy]

NY Times article today states that scientists now have data indicating that having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient with Covid-19 would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator. "It’s not the first time Type A blood has turned up as a possible risk. Chinese scientists who examined patient blood types also found that those with Type A were more likely to develop a serious case of Covid-19." I guess those of us with A blood type need to be especially careful.

[orville]

I don't have to think China did a good job or is at all honest to think it's not manmade. It's quite possible for it to both be true that China's data is fudged and the virus is not manmade. Why does having a Nobel mean his motives are not suspect? Maybe he misses being the center of attention so he's making up shit. Or maybe he's simply losing his marbles.

A scientists's life is not the story of 1000 successes and one fail. It's the story of hundreds of failures, and, if they're lucky, a success or two.

Yes, you can twist my words all you want to win a useless argument. He probably had errors but also many successes previous to his biggest one, which happens to be discovering the HIV virus, and that won him a Nobel Prize, which not many can account on their careers. Be happy in your small bubble.

[+ Charlie]

Human nature is fantastic. Most ordinary people will overlook 1,000 successes because of 1 fail. No matter all the things the subject of their judgment did right in the past.

You are not factoring that there is an agenda, by big pharma and the media. Reason why the WHO covered the outbreak at the beginning, because of the Chinese government pressure. This I'm not inventing. First they said China did a great job but now the WHO is pointing their fingers at China. It's on the mainstream media now, because it came to light thanks to investigative journalism. Medications and the vaccine are the big business here and they will keep talking about it as the main topic, granted.

You definitely have a blind trust in whatever is fed to you via mainstream media corporations.

And you seem to have a blind trust in the glitter of the Nobel Prize, as though it is the definitive answer to an objective question and not as politically influenced as many other issues. Even Montagnier himself expressed surprise that he received the prize alone instead of jointly with American scientist Robert Gallo, since although Montagnier identified the virus first, it was Gallo who was first to prove that it caused AIDS. Since receiving the Nobel, BTW, Montagnier has made other scientific claims that experts have found highly questionable, not just the latest one about COVID-19. Any examination of the history of the Nobel Prizes would raise doubts in many people's minds about the quality of the choices, and of those who were not chosen.

[Guest]

Just because he has an important credit in his career, his findings are way more credible than any of our opinions. And we are not talking ANY important credit here but the NOBEL prize. He's obviously way smarter than the rest of us 'average-smart' people, and a laureate expert scientist in his field. He's also not dependant on any employer, corporation or media to conduct or vet his research. Reason why you probably won't read this on any mainstream news media outlet as they typically have liabilities with Big Pharma advertisers and governments. If you read the complete article, he did not work alone but with a biomathematician and the results of his studies have been corroborated by a separate team in India, later forced to remove their paper publication because of "editorial pressure".

Sniper hit it on the head with his example of Linus Pauling, who was brilliant in one way, but a complete crackpot when it came to his opinions regarding Vitamin C. In general, one would do best to trust the opinons of groups of scientists trained to look at current evidence objectively (for example, the CDC).

[orville]

And you seem to have a blind trust in the glitter of the Nobel Prize, as though it is the definitive answer to an objective question and not as politically influenced as many other issues. Even Montagnier himself expressed surprise that he received the prize alone instead of jointly with American scientist Robert Gallo, since although Montagnier identified the virus first, it was Gallo who was first to prove that it caused AIDS. Since receiving the Nobel, BTW, Montagnier has made other scientific claims that experts have found highly questionable, not just the latest one about COVID-19. Any examination of the history of the Nobel Prizes would raise doubts in many people's minds about the quality of the choices, and of those who were not chosen.

Good to know that even a Nobel Prize and probably one of the greatest contributions to medical science in human history can be looked down upon thanks to personal appreciations of facts no one is 100% sure about. Unless you were there, so you can make now those affirmations. If so, good for you. If anyone is unsatisfied with the Nobel Prize appointments, they're free to do their claims to the organization, given that, as it seems, we are all owners of our own truth.

Edited June 4, 2020 by orville

[orville]

Sniper hit it on the head with his example of Linus Pauling, who was brilliant in one way, but a complete crackpot when it came to his opinions regarding Vitamin C. In general, one would do best to trust the opinons of groups of scientists trained to look at current evidence objectively (for example, the CDC).

Sure, like CDC giving green light to Hydroxychloroquine.

[Guest]

Sure, like CDC giving green light to Hydroxychloroquine.

What are you talking about? The CDC does not ever approve medications. The FDA has that role.

[orville]

What are you talking about? The CDC does not ever approve medications. The FDA has that role.

It provided guidelines that later had to be pulled back

https://bgr.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-usa-cdc-fixes-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-info/