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Everything posted by bigjoey

  1. A company name. Great products. They have a “hotel line” sold to top hotels. Great quality at a reduced price. The wife of a friend was a rep for that line and I bought my sheets through her. Highly recommended🥇🏆
  2. I have not seen him in a number of years but he’s one of the best. Not just his good looks and great sexual skills but his positive attitude guarantee you a great time. He’s very intelligent and uses his intellect to figure out how to please you. His goal is that you have a good time and you will.
  3. Interesting video on inflation: https://www.facebook.com/reel/2875969319203371?fs=e&s=aEkTS0&mibextid=RgwyXk
  4. And the problem is: we’ll have to wait and only looking back know if he is correct. However, I find it interesting that he hedges his bet. He does not say the market will crash. He puts his prediction in percentage terms. At any given time, a normal investor is saying a stock price has peaked and is selling and another investor is buying because they think it will go up. 50% of the investors are wrong. (I say “normal investor” because there is always some “forced” selling due to death, divorce and debt). Like buying Coke in 1998, the “smart”, short term investor was a seller and the wrong, short term investor was a buyer. At that moment, the outcome was unknown; now, decades later we know who was right.
  5. The problem knowing that you shouldn’t have bought Coke in 1998 and that it would be 15 years before it reached that price level again is you are looking in a rear view mirror. While it’s obvious now, it wasn’t then. At any point in time with the knowledge of the time, decisions need to be made to buy and sell. If you had bought Coke in 1998, looking at its past history, as it dropped the logical thought would have been that this is a temporary setback and will soon return to its upward path. When you take the very long term Buffett view of holding a dividend paying, quality company it seems to work (a long life helps, too). Market timing doesn’t work. I agree with you about real estate. Normally, it’s a great long term investment. One thing that needs to be considered: inflation. To accurately measure any investment return, the return needs to be inflation adjusted. Stocks, bonds and real estate returns to be accurate and to be compared over time must be inflation adjusted. A 10% return now and a 10% return during the high inflation Jimmy Carter years are different.
  6. Thoughts: 1- Buffett’s strategy includes stocks that pay huge dividends year after year: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/best-warren-buffett-dividend-stocks#:~:text=And%20the%20best%20Warren%20Buffett,and%20%244.89%20billion%20in%202020. Getting $6 billion in cash dividends adds value no matter what the market says Berkshire is worth. (At some point, after Buffett dies, I would expect the company to payout some of this largesse.) 2-because many of the Buffett stocks are held decades and the dividends keep flowing, short term ups and downs in the market price of those stocks are not important. Think: Coke. As long as the dividend is “safe” year-to-year change in the stock’s price does not mean much. Buffett holds stocks like HP whose growth potential is limited and the printer machine business declines BUT the ink business is a cash cow and adds to Berkshire’s cash pile💵💰. Instead of trying to “time the market,” the long term certainty has paid off well. Rather than try to run after short term gains with “hot,” flavor of the month stocks, slow and steady has done well. 3-looking at Berkshire’s stock between carefully selected time points is dangerous (and often can produce different results by changing the window) as well as looking in a rear view mirror. A better approach is to be “neutral” and use arbitrary “windows” like 5, 10, 15 or 20 to see how effective an asset holding strategy is. For “seniors”: No matter what theory one uses for buying stocks, personally I believe it is best to be diversified among asset classes and even within any asset class. This will smooth out market ups and downs. For example in the asset class of stocks, I hold mostly great dividend paying stocks but also I hold some stocks that don’t pay dividends but are stocks with a great, long term future (El Pollo Loco- a profitable restaurant chain that’s expanding nationally) or a solid record that produces long term capital gains (O Reilly Automotive).
  7. The answer to the riddle is really easy. The graphs and economic data you list are all aggregate data for an entire economy. No matter what the investment asset purchased (real estate, a bond, a stock), you are buying a singular investment asset and not the aggregate (unless buying an index fund). For buying a specific asset, information about the general economy is interesting but not terribly relevant in making a decision on a specific asset. Example: No matter the interest rate, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, etc, a specific real estate piece’s value depends more on location, tenant, condition of building, length of lease, local and government policies, why the real estate is for sale, what purpose the buyer has in mind, etc. Aggregate factors in the general economy like interest rates will impact the value to some extent but other factors may over ride the aggregate ones. The same with bonds and stocks. When the aggregate market is hitting new highs, there are usually a few stocks hitting new lows. When stocks in the aggregate market are hitting new lows, there are often a few hitting new highs. The “art” of investing in real estate, bonds or stocks is focusing on a specific asset. Warren Buffett made his mark picking specific stocks and he often is buying when others are selling. He is often buying when aggregate factors are sending sell signals. He holds stocks for the long run and doesn’t sell when aggregate factors send sell signals that the market is going down. Finally, no matter the theory one uses to buy, sell or hold investments, there is a luck factor. We need to acknowledge that no matter how skilled the investor is, luck plays a role.
  8. Warren Buffett on economists buying stocks: https://www.facebook.com/reel/295781309613940?fs=e&s=aEkTS0&mibextid=z9DgKg
  9. No reason there cannot be a moderate middle path between the two extremes and thoughtfully incarcerate those who need it.
  10. I’m OK but rarely check-in anymore yet alone comment. It’s just not worth the effort and I have a very busy and full life outside the virtual world. I just got tired of trying to defend myself from outright lies, distortions and slander by one verbose poster in particular. He is welcome to continue practicing his Saul Alinsky methods on others and perhaps fool many readers here. I will no longer play his games. It seems he views posting not as a discussion or exchange of ideas but a battle-to-the-death against anything opposing his very partisan beliefs. I may occasionally post or like a comment but otherwise, I’ve got a real life and my time is too valuable to waste with nonsense.
  11. I would hold off on crypto investment right now. From “The Economist” this morning: The summer of crypto’s discontent PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES On Wednesday, Iran will cut off electricity to its 118 authorised crypto-mining firms, hoping to relieve the country’s strained power network. It is a fitting move, as the mood darkens in the wider cryptoverse. The price of bitcoin fell nearly 15% on Saturday alone, triggering some $1bn in liquidation as traders who had borrowed money to make big bets failed to put up more collateral. Other crypto-coins tumbled too, although most have since recovered and the market appears to have stabilised. But bitcoin remains nearly 70% below its peak in November. That is wreaking havoc across the industry. Lenders have suspended withdrawals, hedge funds have failed to meet margin calls and one exchange halted transactions altogether, fearing it might run out of funds. Even giant firms have been hit. Many—notably Coinbase—have announced layoffs of up to 20% of their workforces. This summer of discontent could evolve into a long winter for the fading stars of crypto.
  12. The Frick is an amazing place. Closed for a complete renovation of the house (new HVAC, opening part of the second floor). Currently, the collection is on display on Madison Avenue in the old Whitney. Interesting because you can see the collection in a different way than when it was in the house.
  13. Is the crypto party over? Wonder what your co-workers are saying🤔. https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/investing/bitcoin-price
  14. Agree but I would add the concept of “dollar cost averaging.” https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/dollar-cost-averaging#:~:text=Dollar%2Dcost%20averaging%20can%20help,temptation%20to%20time%20the%20market.
  15. I feel the newbie investor can do this. I did after observation of some very wealthy real estate investors. God isn’t making any more land. My entire life, there has been inflation that has increased the value of most real estate that equals or exceeds rate of inflation. Inflation is the enemy of the middle class who does not own a home (first real estate investment).
  16. Absolutely correct. With little capital, investing in a low cost index fund should “beat the market” over the long haul. I would add fixed monthly investment amount to dollar cost average and not try to time the market. It requires discipline to dollar cost average but that will bring the best results.
  17. Bill Gates on crypto: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/15/tech/bill-gates-crypto-nfts-comments/index.html Warren Buffett on crypto: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/02/warren-buffett-wouldnt-spend-25-on-all-of-the-bitcoin-in-the-world.html Mark Cuban (who was big on crypto and still SELECTIVELY believes in crypto: https://cointelegraph.com/news/mark-cuban-says-crypto-crash-highlights-warren-buffett-s-wisdom/amp I am old enough to see all types of investment crazes. They do not end up well. Buffett believes in investing in companies that produce products or services; they rise and fall in value with how well they execute that role and how well those products and services are needed and used. Even museum quality art and antiques go both up and down in value depending on changing tastes and fashions but at least it has some intrinsic value. To me, crypto seems to be valued solely on the greater fool theory: there will be a greater fool than I who will buy it from me for more than I paid..
  18. The buildings I have bought have all been in a partnership with members of my family. There were five of us investors who each put in 20%. In my example, we would have each put in $40,000 which makes it fairly easy to start building real estate wealth. Also, that spread the risk as we could buy more properties over time.
  19. Warren Buffett would agree with you and over the last few weeks has been buying while stocks are “on sale.”👍
  20. I lucked out and bought a policy that was so unprofitable for the insurance industry, policies with those terms are not longer being sold😇. I bought the policy in my 40’s and it was paid for in full after 10 years with no more payments. (I am now 76) The policy only paid for long term care after I was 65. The actuarial calculation included the insurance company holding the money for at least 20 years with no payouts and for anyone who died, never paying out. The policy paid $300/day which covered costs thirty years ago; while it has a COLA factor, long term skilled nursing can run more. It does cover home aid instead of institutional care. It has no lifetime limit. It has a 60 day wait period before coverage starts once long term care is required (the actuarial calculation was that if you entered skilled nursing, you would not last long). The policy predates the wide availability of “assisted living.” Back when I bought the policy there was only independent living and skilled nursing. As a volunteer, I was involved in Kansas City’s first assisted living facility about 25 years ago and it was a revolutionary concept and we did not know how people would accept it and if it would be fiscally viable. The actuarial calculation did not include such living arrangements. In addition to all of the above, people are living longer (pre-Covid) and the insurance industry made the terms much less favorable on new policies.
  21. A second trick with such a piece of property: when the first mortgage is paid off, take out a new mortgage. That money comes out TAX FREE😀. Do NOT spend that money but reinvest it in more similar properties. Rinse and repeat. This works when you are young and have a long investment window. It worked for me because I started early and am now 76😇. Highly simplified example: 1-buy a $1 million dollar building . 20% down and $800,000 mortgage. It needs to be a building with a good tenant and a steady income stream. 2-once that mortgage is paid off, take out a new $800,000 mortgage. Your basis in the original building drops to $200,000 (for purposes of the example, let’s omit effects of depreciation on basis). Do not spend the money on personal items but reinvest it. Buy four new $1 million buildings with 20% down. You now own five $1 million dollar buildings. Rinse and repeat. 3-depreciation has sheltered some of your income from rent and gives you a higher after tax return on your investment. 4-the downside is after the second or third mortgage, the building will have a negative basis. IF you sell the building, that gives you a huge gain. HOWEVER, their are alternatives to selling so that money you got with each mortgage remains TAX FREE: 1031 exchange, donate to charity, never sell the building and your heirs get a stepped up basis. 5-this works if you are disciplined and reinvest the money and not spend it for personal needs. It is taking a long term view to build wealth. Luck is involved as your tenants need to be strong financially with long term leases and the sites need to be good ones and the leases triple net leases (tenants pay all the expenses). A separate issue that I did NOT do because my properties were all triple net leases, is putting personal expenses onto the rental property. If you own rental property and manage it yourself: when you are putting in a new parking lot, the contractor puts in a new driveway at your home; when you put in landscaping at the rental property, landscape your own house; appliances, carpet, painting and repairs can all be written off on the rental property as business expenses. I am NOT advising or advocating this but just note it is often done. I list this as an observation only.😇
  22. It depends on the property. I have a single user piece of property leased to a solid NYSE company. I had 80% down and the mortgage lender hardly seemed to care about my income or assets. The company had a 25 year lease (the lease ended last year and they renewed for another 20 years). The lender looked at the strength of the tenant and joked with me at the time that it was like a bond. The location was a top location that they figured would only go up in value over time (it has).
  23. The mortgage lender looks more at the value of the property and how much down you are doing. The larger the amount down, the safer the loan and less dependent on your personal sssets and income. Going the REIT way, your income/assets make no difference.
  24. Like you, I see this as a “buying opportunity.” Warren Buffet has been buying this week. It may not be the bottom but there are selective “good” buys. I have made some purchases. Like Disney, this may not be the bottom but over the long run, it’ll be OK. This has been my stock buying pattern for over 50 years. My problem is that at 76, the “long run” is not so long🥲.
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