IS COVID-19 weakening in strength? Some doctors think it is.

[EZEtoGRU]

I thought this was interesting. Some doctors in Italy are saying that the strength of the Coronavirus they are seeing in current tests has a much weaker viral load than what they were seeing previously. It will be interesting to see if this is actually true. I know viruses can evolve and sometimes actually turn on themselves and die off. Could it be that this pandemic will end as quickly as it started?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ?il=0

[Trick]

I think it’s only because of the mitigation measures put in place. With people ignoring social distancing guidelines, it will stage a comeback. How many people in those riots do you think will infect others?

[+ sniper]

Its the distancing measures and masks. Between all thise things, the infections that do.happen happen at lower initial doses. It takes time for the virus to replicate in the body, amd it only goes up by a fixed factor each "generation" of replication. Which means if you get a lower initial dose, your immune system will likely have time to generate enough antibodies to either keep the virus in check or at least mitigate the severity of illness, and then your immune system starts killing off the virus faster than it replicates and you recover.

[EZEtoGRU]

I'm surprised this story isn't getting more attention in the press. It seems to be a pretty significant development to me.

[Daverwr]

I'm surprised this story isn't getting more attention in the press. It seems to be a pretty significant development to me.

It simply doesn’t support the press‘s purpose and agenda. And now, with the riots and Floyd’s death, they have a new terrible image to exploit.

[+ ButchAtl]

Yeah, that would be great if it turned out to be correct, but seems a lot like wishful thinking.

[EZEtoGRU]

Folks...lets keep this thread free of politics. It's in The Lounge for a reason.

[Todd Jenkins]

I thought this was interesting. Some doctors in Italy are saying that the strength of the Coronavirus they are seeing in current tests has a much weaker viral load than what they were seeing previously. It will be interesting to see if this is actually true. I know viruses can evolve and sometimes actually turn on themselves and die off. Could it be that this pandemic will end as quickly as it started?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ?il=0

DEAR GOD, Let this be true.

AMEN!

[marylander1940]

I'm surprised this story isn't getting more attention in the press. It seems to be a pretty significant development to me.

 

I hope the story doesn't make it to news because it will be an excuse for folks to get lazy and not take social distancing and hand washing seriously.

[CuriousByNature]

Every pandemic has to end at some point, whether by immunization, treatment, mutation, etc. The big question for me is whether it will return, and if so, whether it will be less virulent or more virulent than the current outbreak.

[Rudynate]

Every pandemic has to end at some point, whether by immunization, treatment, mutation, etc. The big question for me is whether it will return, and if so, whether it will be less virulent or more virulent than the current outbreak.

 

 

The Chinese mounted that herculean project to test every single one of Wuhan's 11 million residents. They completed it and found no new cases. Very good news.

[+ keroscenefire]

Could be a couple of things:

1) Viral loads may be lower because of social distancing and mask wearing. Those who are exposed to infectious individuals are getting much less virus because of these factors and loosening the restrictions could increase viral loads and therefore create a more harmful illness.

 

2) There is some thought that COVID is mutating to a less-harmful form. A study from Arizona showed some deletion of nucleotides in the virus over time that is similar to the mutations that occurred with SARS that made it less harmful. In some ways, this could be more advantageous to the virus, because it would allow it to spread more easily among asymptomatic people. We don't know if this mutation is widespread, however.

 

For what it's worth the WHO has pushed back pretty hard against the Italian doctors who said that COVID is losing strength.

[Populist Fury]

Further proof that OTT hysteria in the media & draconian government measures have to be opposed, not enabled like it always is by creadulous people.

 

SARS-CoV-2 has been a relatively weak virus from the start, that's why the vast majority of young & healthy people (especially kids) are almost immune to it. It only seemed to thrive & spread rapidly in 40-50 degree weather & under certain humidity levels. The late spring/summer heat is killing it off, weakening it's effects on people. ???

[+ purplekow]

Further proof that OTT hysteria in the media & draconian government measures have to be opposed, not enabled like it always is by creadulous people.

 

SARS-CoV-2 has been a relatively weak virus from the start, that's why the vast majority of young & healthy people (especially kids) are almost immune to it. It only seemed to thrive & spread rapidly in 40-50 degree weather & under certain humidity levels. The late spring/summer heat is killing it off, weakening it's effects on people. ???

Thank you Dr. Shill. Exactly who are you shilling for now? Without the "draconian" measures, this would be worse. And after all, the federal government left it to the states to close down if they so desired. Some did not. And again, 100000 dead is hardly hysteria. So I suppose Brazil has nothing to worry about as the weather will protect them.

[Rudynate]

Could be a couple of things:

1) Viral loads may be lower because of social distancing and mask wearing. Those who are exposed to infectious individuals are getting much less virus because of these factors and loosening the restrictions could increase viral loads and therefore create a more harmful illness.

 

Are you sure that a measured viral load on testing is a function of the viral load that caused the infection? I'm not a virologist, but I would think that a viral load sufficient to cause infection would be sufficient to cause a high viral load on testing. I'm inclined to think that a lower viral load on testing would be caused by the virus not being able to multiply rapidly after it has infected the host.

[+ keroscenefire]

Are you sure that a measured viral load on testing is a function of the viral load that caused the infection? I'm not a virologist, but I would think that a viral load sufficient to cause infection would be sufficient to cause a high viral load on testing. I'm inclined to think that a lower viral load on testing would be caused by the virus not being able to multiply rapidly after it has infected the host.

 

I think that is somewhat unknown at this point. It definitely is the case with some viruses like influenza, that the lower the initial viral load, the less severe of disease. While other viruses like norovirus can sicken people with a very small number of infectious particles. There has kinda been conflicting reports with COVID-19 and the main way to test this through "challenge" studies that give people various doses of the virus under experimental conditions is considered unethical with a virus that is potentially so deadly.

[EZEtoGRU]

For what it's worth the WHO has pushed back pretty hard against the Italian doctors who said that COVID is losing strength.

Yes I noticed this too. Of course the WHO has to be cautious as they don't want people to lower their guard.

[Guest]

Well, most respiratory viruses (rhinoviruses, coronoviruses, flu, etc.) seem to be less active in warmer months. The reason for that isn't fully understood. Maybe the infections are the same but more are asymptomatic? Maybe fewer infections? Also, there seem to be genetic drifts, which is why the flu shot is re-formulated every year. Our knowledge is increasing rapidly with this virus because of the intense study. What we do seem to know with a fair degree of certainty is that opening things up with a fair degree of caution doesn't cause a spike of cases, as we look at the data from all of the states. I remember hearing on NBC news that they were making a big deal about one hospital in Alabama whose ICU got full. Really? You have to scour the entire country to find one hospital? It really demonstrated to me how the media love to sensationalize. (BTW, it's not uncommon for hospitals to run out of ICU beds, even pre-Covid).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

Edited June 2, 2020 by Unicorn

[+ Charlie]

Does the virus behave differently in warmer months, or do people behave differently? In places where winter months are cold, people are likely to spend more time indoors, i.e. in enclosed spaces with other people, where they are more likely to come in contact with whatever virus is being spread through the air.

[spider]

It simply doesn’t support the press‘s purpose and agenda. And now, with the riots and Floyd’s death, they have a new terrible image to exploit.

Let me check. Yep, there’s a board for politics where is where this belongs. Take it there.

[+ keroscenefire]

Does the virus behave differently in warmer months, or do people behave differently? In places where winter months are cold, people are likely to spend more time indoors, i.e. in enclosed spaces with other people, where they are more likely to come in contact with whatever virus is being spread through the air.

 

It's probably a combination of both. Heat and humidity of the summer months likely do damage the virus with increased UV rays unraveling the RNA structures of the virus and increased humidity making it harder for the infectious droplets to spread very far. But yes, it's also likely that more people are outside and not in the crammed indoor conditions that this virus loves to spread in. I also wonder if people are biking and walking more than taking public transit with the warmer weather, decreasing their contact with people. But we've also seen bad outbreaks in very warm and humid areas like Ecuador and Singapore, so we shouldn't assume that we can't have a bad outbreak in the US just because it's summer.

[MscleLovr]

we've also seen bad outbreaks in very warm and humid areas like Ecuador and Singapore, so we shouldn't assume that we can't have a bad outbreak in the US just because it's summer.

 

Very well put @keroscenefire Also I thought it was normal for a virus to weaken and be less potent as it spread into a much larger population.

 

I still wonder if this virus differs between Asia and Europe/US as the rate of fatality is so much greater in the latter.

[Ajac]

Isn't Australias summer type weather generally in the months that we have colder weather and that being said didn't their outbreak come about at the same time ours did?

[Guest]

Isn't Australias summer type weather generally in the months that we have colder weather and that being said didn't their outbreak come about at the same time ours did?

I'm not stating there's an absolute cause and effect, but Covid entered Australia during their late summer. They were able to isolate the few cases they had, and mostly shut themselves off from the rest of the world as their Autumn began. Lots of factors to consider. The Italy/New York strain of Covid-19 also seemed to be milder than the Asian/California strain. Or the climate could have been involved. We don't have firm answers at this time.

[Guest]

...But we've also seen bad outbreaks in very warm and humid areas like Ecuador and Singapore, so we shouldn't assume that we can't have a bad outbreak in the US just because it's summer.

Well, Singapore is certainly very warm and humid everywhere at all times, but I wouldn't describe their outbreak as "bad." They have identified a lot of cases in their overcrowded migrant worker quarters, which seems to confirm that living in crowded communal conditions such as Rio's favelas doesn't bode well for the Covid fight in those places. According to today's latest data:

Singapore

Confirmed

35,836

+544

Recovered

23,175

Deaths

24

So for 24 deaths out of 35,836 confirmed cases (and that doesn't even include any asymptomatic cases which haven't been found), that yields a case fatality rate of under 0.07%, if my math is OK. If that's "bad," what does it need to be "good"? I don't consider 24 deaths in total for the entire pandemic for a city of 5.7 million to be alarming.

As for Ecuador, although it lies on the equator, like Singapore, much of the population, such as in the capital, lies at a high elevation, so it's not as hot and steamy as you might think. Quito sits at an elevation of 2850 m. According to Wikipedia,

"Quito is in a unique situation among cities, as it is one of the few cities located on the equator and it is the only city on Earth in which the climate changes depending on what hemisphere the place is in, in the Southern Hemisphere (which the vast majority of Quito falls under), the city has a subtropical highland climate (Köppen climate classification Cfb), while in the Northern Hemisphere, the city has a warm-summer mediterranean climate (Köppen climate classification Csb). Because of its elevation and location on the equator, Quito has a fairly constant cool climate. The average afternoon high temperature is 21.4 °C (70.5 °F) with an average night-time low of 9.8 °C (49.6 °F).[18] The annual average temperature is 15.6 °C (60.1 °F).[19] The city has only two seasons: dry and wet. The dry season, June through September (4 months), is referred to as summer; the wet season, October through May (8 months), is referred to as winter. Annual precipitation, depending on location, is about 1,000 mm (39 in)."