Stocks and the marketplace

[+ bigjoey]

11 hours ago, Kevin Slater said:

This presents a wonderful opportunity to deploy some of that cash.

How am I feeling?  Like I've seen this before, and I know how it ends.  It ends well.

Kevin Slater

Like you, I see this as a “buying opportunity.”  Warren Buffet has been buying this week.  It may not be the bottom but there are selective “good” buys.  I have made some purchases.  Like Disney, this may not be the bottom but over the long run, it’ll be OK.

This has been my stock buying pattern for over 50 years.  My problem is that at 76, the “long run” is not so long🥲.

 

[MscleLovr]

5 hours ago, bigjoey said:

My problem is that at 76, the “long run” is not so long🥲.

I completely agree @bigjoey I’m happy with my investments (all long-term holdings) and I see no point in trading them.

As we age, I think there may be a further problem for single gay men with a good income. Certainly in the pandemic, I found myself saving far more than usual.  Unless you have a dynastic impulse, why try to get richer? I always recall my grandfather’s dictum on investing “You never want to wake up poor”

[Bucky]

Single gay investors have now changed their profiles from:

"Looking for A bottom" to "Looking for THE bottom".

[Kevin Slater]

An interesting article on panic selling. 

That’s because investors in these demographic categories are more likely to react to the market’s decline by freaking out and “panic selling.” And if you do that, odds are good that you won’t get back into equities until the stock market is much higher than where it stood when you sold—causing you to lose out to buying and holding.

In fact, according to a new study, you might never get back in. Nearly a third of investors who “panic sell” swear off equities altogether, and never re-enter the market. So they lose out on stocks’ long-term potential.

Kevin Slater

[+ FrankR]

23 hours ago, Kevin Slater said:

An interesting article on panic selling. 

That’s because investors in these demographic categories are more likely to react to the market’s decline by freaking out and “panic selling.” And if you do that, odds are good that you won’t get back into equities until the stock market is much higher than where it stood when you sold—causing you to lose out to buying and holding.

In fact, according to a new study, you might never get back in. Nearly a third of investors who “panic sell” swear off equities altogether, and never re-enter the market. So they lose out on stocks’ long-term potential.

Kevin Slater

I think it was Warren Buffett who said that the stock market is the only store where the customers run away when there is a sale on.  😆

Edited May 21, 2022 by FrankR

[Luv2play]

There is an old saw in investing that says never try to catch a falling knife. 

[+ augustus]

On 5/20/2022 at 7:30 AM, bigjoey said:

This has been my stock buying pattern for over 50 years.  My problem is that at 76, the “long run” is not so long

Your nearest and dearest are patiently waiting LOL.

[Guest]

12 hours ago, Luv2play said:

There is an old saw in investing that says never try to catch a falling knife. 

[+ FrankR]

17 hours ago, Luv2play said:

There is an old saw in investing that says never try to catch a falling knife. 

That is indeed a well known saying - To be sure, I am not trying to catch the falling knife…I am “betting” it will still be in usable condition after it hits the floor! 😉

Edited May 22, 2022 by FrankR

[Luv2play]

Well, here we are almost a month later and that proverbial knife is still falling. 

Some days it has fallen as fast as the worst days of 2008. And we know how that ended. The great recession.

Today the S&P500 is down 23 percent. It is not inconceivable it could fall between 33 and 50 percent. It has in my lifetime a couple of times. At this point its hard to see what is going to change market sentiment since there are no silver bullets in prospect.

[SirBillybob]

27 minutes ago, Luv2play said:

Well, here we are almost a month later and that proverbial knife is still falling. 

Some days it has fallen as fast as the worst days of 2008. And we know how that ended. The great recession.

Today the S&P500 is down 23 percent. It is not inconceivable it could fall between 33 and 50 percent. It has in my lifetime a couple of times. At this point its hard to see what is going to change market sentiment since there are no silver bullets in prospect.

I ill-advisedly tossed the die and cashed out a chunk of registered mutual funds at around the market nadir in March 2020, didn’t die, and I had planned to spend a lot of it but I haven’t needed to touch it as my regular income flow has been adequate even for 5 major trips I will have done and dusted this year. My fund manager asserted over two years ago that it would be a challenge to ever get that money back into the market. Now with the funds I left invested tumbling, I am wondering if the adage ‘never say never’ applies. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by SirBillybob

[Kevin Slater]

Great time to throw some money into the market.  Time in the market is more important than timing the market.  From the Elements of Investing:

We could run through dozens of other examples using actual
stock market returns. One investor might start early but have the
worst possible timing, investing at the peak of the stock market
each year. Another investor starts later but is the world's luckiest
investor, buying at the absolute bottom of the market every year.
The first investor, even though she may have invested less money
and had the worst possible timing, accumulates more money.
Luck in picking the right time to invest is all well and good,
but time is much more important than timing. There is always a
good excuse to put off planning for retirement. Don't let it happen
to you. Put time on your side. To get rich surely you have to do
it wisely - which means slowly - and you will have to start now.

Kevin Slater

[KeepItReal]

On 5/20/2022 at 6:30 AM, bigjoey said:

Like you, I see this as a “buying opportunity.”  Warren Buffet has been buying this week.  It may not be the bottom but there are selective “good” buys.  I have made some purchases.  Like Disney, this may not be the bottom but over the long run, it’ll be OK.

This has been my stock buying pattern for over 50 years.  My problem is that at 76, the “long run” is not so long🥲.

 

I am beginning to think the stock price for Disney may be down enough to start looking like value...pity about the dividend though. 🤔

[Kevin Slater]

1 hour ago, KeepItReal said:

I am beginning to think the stock price for Disney may be down enough to start looking like value...pity about the dividend though. 🤔

It popped today in tandem with Netflix's not-as-bad-as-expected results.  Still pretty close to its 52 week low, and basically where it was seven years ago.

Kevin Slater

[KeepItReal]

On 7/20/2022 at 8:53 PM, Kevin Slater said:

It popped today in tandem with Netflix's not-as-bad-as-expected results.  Still pretty close to its 52 week low, and basically where it was seven years ago.

Kevin Slater

Breaking news is that Bob Iger is returning ...

[Luv2play]

My impression is that while stock markets have staged somewhat of a rally in recent weeks, that in the face of growing recessionary fears, this will not last and that markets will resume heading south.

Some sectors have done well, such as energy, because of the war in Ukraine, but oil prices have started tumbling and are now below $80. Banks are doing well but real estate is under pressure and banks always have a huge exposure there.

Hi tech is in a swoon so no comfort there. Inflation may be coming under control but the road ahead still looks long and winding.

I only keep a casual eye on the markets as I am not invested heavily but wonder what others think.

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloKyle]

1 hour ago, Luv2play said:

My impression is that while stock markets have staged somewhat of a rally in recent weeks, that in the face of growing recessionary fears, this will not last and that markets will resume heading south.

Especially if the rail strike happens in a couple weeks.

[+ FrankR]

Disney is still struggling. The PE ratio speaks for itself. Rumors of Apple potentially looking to buy Disney does sound interesting. 

[+ FrankR]

So Disney is still down quite a bit and it looks like one battle is behind it.

https://www.axios.com/2024/05/30/nelson-peltz-sells-disney-stake

[KeepItReal]

Disney is basically back down to its 5 year low. Consumer appears to be hurting. 🤓

[MikePDNA51]

On 8/7/2024 at 1:09 PM, KeepItReal said:

Disney is basically back down to its 5 year low. Consumer appears to be hurting. 🤓

I’m not keeping Disney+ subscription, if company loosing me as customer then others are also moving away from service. Disney entertainment never was the highest profit area for company so me leaving Disney+ (or even division folding) might not have much of an impact 
 

Disney Parks will always be a money maker! Disney parks, cruises, and vacations, are visited even during major recessions! I do not plan on visiting anything Disney but there are plenty of people spending their money at these venues. 

[MikePDNA51]

Steps need to figure out (all while meeting USA laws because I hate paying taxes but it's part of living in USA). 

1. how to open a bank account in foreign developing country

2. invest in foreign countries stock 

3. divest from stock 

4. money conversion from local currency back to US dollar 

5. move money from foreign bank account back to middle country or USA. (this step might not happen)

 

The US dollar is valued higher than all developing world currencies.  

 

Problems

1. Stock markets in developing countries are unregulated or corrupt. (Corruption is basically the same thing as Real Estate Industry in USA but without taxes, message for more information).

2. Will my dollars be taken but not converted back?

3. Will the exchange rate between the US dollar are foreign currency change enough 

 

Solutions

1. invest in iPOs in countries with regulations that are followed

2. use a bank that will give money back.  (not important, Lebanon cannot keep money in bank or even send to relatives.  The bank will take US dollars out of bank then not give anything.  People do not even have savings.)

3. Can I make exchange rate not important if I move money quickly (once a day or week) between currencies? 

Plan put together now I need to make real! Any suggestions? 

[mike carey]

If your interest is to invest in emerging markets, doing so through their banks and buying stocks through various foreign stock exchanges can be a casino play. It will also become incredibly complicated if you want to repeat the steps in multiple countries. It would be simpler to invest via US intermediaries (and not Honest Billy Bob's Third World Stocks Inc), either a US broker who handles foreign stock dealing, or through an emerging market mutual fund or exchange traded fund. It may be feasible to deal directly with foreign stocks and currencies in developed countries, but keeping track of the market trends AND the variations in their exchange rates with the US would make for a complex management task for you. Take professional advice.

If your intent is to take your funds out of reach of the IRS, basically you can't. Well, unless you renounce any US citizenship you have, or aren't one in the first place. For US citizens, all income domestic and foreign is subject to US taxes, and from what I understand, they take a dim view of off-shore investments that tax-payers try to hide from them.

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

8 hours ago, MikePDNA51 said:

Steps need to figure out (all while meeting USA laws because I hate paying taxes but it's part of living in USA). 

1. how to open a bank account in foreign developing country

2. invest in foreign countries stock 

3. divest from stock 

4. money conversion from local currency back to US dollar 

5. move money from foreign bank account back to middle country or USA. (this step might not happen)

 

The US dollar is valued higher than all developing world currencies.  

 

Problems

1. Stock markets in developing countries are unregulated or corrupt. (Corruption is basically the same thing as Real Estate Industry in USA but without taxes, message for more information).

2. Will my dollars be taken but not converted back?

3. Will the exchange rate between the US dollar are foreign currency change enough 

 

Solutions

1. invest in iPOs in countries with regulations that are followed

2. use a bank that will give money back.  (not important, Lebanon cannot keep money in bank or even send to relatives.  The bank will take US dollars out of bank then not give anything.  People do not even have savings.)

3. Can I make exchange rate not important if I move money quickly (once a day or week) between currencies? 

Plan put together now I need to make real! Any suggestions? 

As a US citizen, open a Roth IRA.  Invest in foreign emerging market stocks and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) within your Roth IRA.  Pay no taxes on any gains from the Roth IRA.

[MikePDNA51]

As a USA citizen cannot invest in certain countries stock markets (India). My Roth IRA just sits there