Recession coming?

[BSR]

1 hour ago, keroscenefire said:

I really do not want to get into a political discussion on the finance forum. But would just like to point out that Americans saying the U.S. is on the wrong track could have various causes beyond a pure gauge of the economy. For example, many people surely think the country is on the "wrong track" after the Supreme Court overruling Roe V Wade.

Certainly the economy contributes to those numbers but there are certainly other factors as well. 

True enough, but to quote the immortal wisdom of James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid!" (no, I'm not calling you stupid, LOL).  Although people do consider a number of non-economic issues in their right track/wrong track view, I think the economy has always been and will always be the overriding concern of the vast majority of Americans.

Edited July 30, 2022 by BSR
Wording

[+ Bryan Dube]

Many companies are pulling back or freezing hiring altogether for white collar jobs right now. I say this as someone who freelances and has heard this from multiple recruiters lol. 

[+ sync]

U.S. history is a history of recessions and recoveries.

The U.S. economy, as is the economies of other countries, is influenced by the economic environments of other countries.

The only path now, as it has been in the past, is to just ride it out until better times.

[+ keroscenefire]

It's looking more and more like a global recession is inevitable. Europe definitely is going to have a rough couple years. I think the US economy is actually relatively strong compared to many others. But probably we're in for at least a mild recession to push back against inflation. 

[+ FrankR]

42 minutes ago, keroscenefire said:

It's looking more and more like a global recession is inevitable. Europe definitely is going to have a rough couple years. I think the US economy is actually relatively strong compared to many others. But probably we're in for at least a mild recession to push back against inflation. 

Listening to bank earnings calls today - it sounds like the CEOs feel that banks, at least, are in a good position to weather the coming storm.  Things will be rough for the next year, market wise. A “soft landing” seems more and more unlikely.  So buckle up, cup cake! 🤓

[pubic_assistance]

In my mere 5 decades on this planet I've seen multiple boom and bust sessions in the US economy. Each time it's the same result. Small businesses collapse and big businesses lap up the market share. If you think the ups and downs aren't rigged, you're not paying attention to the benefits for those with the most influence.

[Kevin Slater]

Let's keep this topic to investing and finances.

[+ keroscenefire]

In terms of bringing it back to finances/investing, any advice on weathering bad economic times? I did just put 5K into a 3.5% CD. Considering doing another 5K in I-bonds maybe? Anything else?

[pubic_assistance]

Rental property near Agra businesses in the south. Those migrants gotta live somewhere. The Federal Government is never late with the rent.

[+ FrankR]

2 hours ago, keroscenefire said:

In terms of bringing it back to finances/investing, any advice on weathering bad economic times? I did just put 5K into a 3.5% CD. Considering doing another 5K in I-bonds maybe? Anything else?

Well, if there is an “economic hurricane” coming…make sure you have the basics covered. If you are single, I recommend having 9 months worth of living expenses in cash or cash equivalents (like CDs) where you can get to it quick if needed.  Then you can start thinking about returns. “Insurance” first, “investments” second. 😉

[+ GoingGood]

Hopefully we can avoid a rail workers strike as the impact could be significant.  

[EZEtoGRU]

19 hours ago, arnemgreeves said:

I'd be surprised if most European/North American economies are not in recession right now. 

Putting money away for a rainy day, as well as watching heating and food costs, are probably in order right now.

I think Europe is well into it's recession right now.  I don't feel North America is as far down that path yet even though, technically, we are probably in a recession.  As I said up-thread in July, it still doesn't feel like a recession to me.  Lot's of places in Michigan are still looking for workers.  Inflation is ebbing by all accounts.  People are still traveling a whole lot.  The high-tech/social media bubble does seem to have burst with those layoffs becoming a reality now.   Let's see how things look/feel after the holidays in January.  Right now it still feels like business as usual...at least where I live.  

[hassanizhar]

It is important to note that predicting the future of the economy is a complex and uncertain task, and it involves various factors, including political and social conditions, market trends, global events, and many others. While some signs may suggest that the market is peaking, it is not possible to predict with certainty if we are on the verge of a recession.

Concerns about rising gas prices, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical risks can have an impact on the economy, but it is difficult to quantify their exact effects. It is also important to note that the stock market is not always a perfect reflection of the broader economy, and it can be influenced by many factors, including investor sentiment and speculation.

If you are considering adjusting your investment strategy, it is always advisable to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalized guidance based on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and other factors

[EZEtoGRU]

To answer the thread title, it seems not.  Report after report shows inflation is moderating and near-full employment continues to hold.  People in the US continue to spend money like it's going out of style.  One Wall Street analyst says we're "slipping into an expansion".  It seems all the nay-sayers that have been predicting a recession for the last two years may have been wrong (are you listening Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon?).

Link to article:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/wall-street-biggest-bull-called-213737048.html

[EZEtoGRU]

Further evidence of a robust economy:

U.S. economy was hotter than previously thought, new GDP data shows

STOCKS.APPLE.COM

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Fresh data released Wednesday shows U.S. economic growth in the third quarter was even better than...

No recession in sight

Edited November 29, 2023 by Kevin Slater

[Bucky]

Is a recession on the horizon? More bank CEOs think so | CNN Business

WWW.CNN.COM

---

Add Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser to the growing list of bank CEOs who are warning about tough times ahead.

 

[pubic_assistance]

On 12/6/2023 at 5:35 PM, Bucky said:

Add Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser to the growing list of bank CEOs who are warning about tough times ahead.

We'd probably be in a better position if CEO's stopped stripping the middle class of their earnings.

The  float to the top is stagnating the "normal" economy.

Impulse shopping in down with middle class wage earners because necessities are still at grossly inflated prices.

As said before, you can't go by the stock market. Too much hype to run up numbers before the people who really know what's going on, jump ship, and start shorting.

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

On 7/29/2022 at 4:20 PM, Luv2play said:

I would argue that the difference between my parent's generation and today is that the solid middle class then entailed a single earner family that could afford a nice house in a good neighbourhood, one or two cars replaced every three or five years, a vacation home and private clubs for sports or other activities.

Today all these things require both parents working.

Your parent's generation had a smaller labor force before women began entering the workforce in masses.  When the labor supply nearly doubles (due to half the population seeking employment instead of staying home; or masses of immigration; etc.) then wages are suppressed because there are more available workers to apply for the same job.  The labor supply nearly doubled because of the stark increase in participation by women, now it takes nearly twice as many people working in a household to sustain what one person used to be able to.

[SouthOfTheBorder]

14 hours ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

now it takes nearly twice as many people working in a household to sustain what one person used to be able to.

just wait till AI is fully rolled-out & millions of jobs are no longer required.

Im losing track of just how long the “experts” have been predicting a recession.  It’s beyond ridiculous.  Of course they will eventually be right if they keep it up long enough - it’s clickbait at this point.  

[EZEtoGRU]

52 minutes ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

Im losing track of just how long the “experts” have been predicting a recession.  It’s beyond ridiculous.  Of course they will eventually be right if they keep it up long enough - it’s clickbait at this point.  

This is so true.  Jamie Dimon has been predicting a recession for over 3 years now.  

[EZEtoGRU]

19 hours ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

now it takes nearly twice as many people working in a household to sustain what one person used to be able to.

Yes...but...people want to live much larger today than they did 60 years ago.  The typical household has a much bigger house than before and on a much bigger lot.  Two or three cars instead of one.  People take much more luxurious vacations now than before.  A week at the cottage will no longer do.  It needs to be at least two weeks during the summer in Italy and then a one week winter cruise to the Caribbean... plus a long weekend in Las Vegas somewhere in between. 

I wonder if an average one salary household could sustain a family today if they lived like folks did in the 50's/60's: in a 1500 sq ft bungalow on a 5,000 sq ft lot.  One car and a one-week summer vacation on the lake up north in a small rented cottage.  

Edited December 8, 2023 by EZEtoGRU

[SouthOfTheBorder]

24 minutes ago, EZEtoGRU said:

I wonder if an average one salary household could sustain a family today if they lived like folks did in the 50's/60's: in a 1500 sq ft bungalow on a 5,000 sq ft lot. 

this is part of the problem.

 Americans go into debt for an otherwise unaffordable lifestyle -  buying homes & things can go far beyond a basic function.  The much larger American homes of today perfectly illustrates that point.  The need for bigger homes & corresponding “stuff” is not a thing in most other places, where the basic sizes really haven’t changed at all. 

and then when there’s too much stuff - Americans put it in paid storage for months/years without thinking twice.  It makes no sense. 

[BuffaloKyle]

1 hour ago, EZEtoGRU said:

This is so true.  Jamie Dimon has been predicting a recession for over 3 years now.  

But eventually he'll be right. Just like I predict my Buffalo Bills to win the super bowl every year. I can't wait to say see I told you so!

[marylander1940]

It's cyclical.... sooner or later a recession will come and end but I doubt it will be even closer to the Great Recession or the self-inflicted wound of shutting down everything in March 2020 because of Covid-19.

[Bokomaru]

On 12/8/2023 at 12:58 PM, EZEtoGRU said:

Dimon has been predicting a recession for over 3 years now

Looking back on this thread there are a number of smart people who predicted doom and gloom, which has yet to materialize.  Point is, no one knows.
 

Slow and steady wins the race in investing. I’ve stopped trying to predict anything. Dollar cost averaging is my strategy. 

Edited December 10, 2023 by Bokomaru
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