BSR Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 hours ago, Walt said: I remember a very high stakes prediction similar to this involving Henny Penny, Foxy Loxy, Goosey Loosey, and Turkey Lurkey. They KNEW. People who were predicting a really bad recession pre-2008 were also dismissed as Chicken Littles. The rose-colored glasses set insisted that no recession was coming or that worst case it would be a mild one. I'm not predicting a recession as bad as 2008, but it won't be mild either. Marc in Calif, + augustus and pubic_assistance 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) 13 hours ago, Walt said: I remember a very high stakes prediction similar to this involving Henny Penny, Foxy Loxy, Goosey Loosey, and Turkey Lurkey. They KNEW. What utter nonsense. Government spending fueled by debt and consumer spending fueled by credit cards...tick tock tick tock = boom. Even Robert Rubin, treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, warned about this looming disaster a couple of days ago. Edited January 27 by Kevin Slater Marc in Calif and pubic_assistance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topunderachiever Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) 6 hours ago, augustus said: What utter nonsense. Government spending fueled by debt and consumer spending fueled by credit cards...tick tock tick tock = boom. Even Robert Rubin, treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, warned about this looming disaster a couple of days ago. Rubin yelled and screamed about being pushed off this economic cliff in 1993 authoring The Deficit Reduction Act. We've now prospered for over 30 years, never ever reducing debt, and are still awaiting this "looming disaster". Edited January 27 by topunderachiever Beancounter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ Vegas_Millennial Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) 2 hours ago, topunderachiever said: Rubin yelled and screamed about being pushed off this economic cliff in 1993 authoring The Deficit Reduction Act. We've now prospered for over 30 years, never ever reducing debt, and are still awaiting this "looming disaster". Great! Let's take that same view with Climate Change. Relax and do nothing for 30 more years! The truth is probably the same in both scenarios.... Some are overreacting, and some are not worried enough. Since I can only control my own actions, I plan to continue to pay down my own debt while reducing the amount of single use plastic products I purchase, and then not worry about everything else. Edited January 27 by Vegas_Millennial + stevenkesslar, Walt, + augustus and 1 other 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/20/2024 at 7:59 PM, stevenkesslar said: Meanwhile, 2 in 3 Americans own homes. Most with no mortgage or a low fixed rate mortgage. That is bedrock. Again, this helps explain why the recession has gone missing. I disagree with this conclusion. Because as a member of that 2/3, I'm not a whit "wealthier" from the increase in my property valuation. In fact, I'm actually POORER, since this means increased local and state property taxes, maintanence, insurance etc. on my now-more-valuable home. I wouldn't even be technically wealthier because to SELL my house I would have to get into the group having to buy another one in this higher prices/higher interest rate/low supply environment. How is it an increase in wealth if you can’t sell it or monetize it? This is the fundamental problem with that view. + Vegas_Millennial, Marc in Calif, Walt and 2 others 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ stevenkesslar Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) 2 hours ago, augustus said: How is it an increase in wealth if you can’t sell it or monetize it? This is the fundamental problem with that view. I get your point. If you go to the store and pay more for eggs, that is real. If your house is worth $50,000 more, that's not real. It's an extremely pessimistic way of looking at things. Here's an investment question. My stock nerdy nephew started buying SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022, when it was beaten down to a low by the imminent recession mongers. He kept adding positions, and kind of risked the store on it. But only because it is an index fund with only solid profit makers like NVDA. And he was racking up huge paper gains. I think he went from about $200,000 or so invested to now over $1 million in value on paper. With most of it being an unrealized long term capital gain. I, by comparison, got in late at like $17 a share, and have only doubled the tens of thousands I put in. By your investment standard, both my nephew and I are poor. And bat shit crazy, to boot. First, it is only a paper gain. Second, if it is ever realized, we will have to pay lots of taxes. Therefore, we are shitty investors. Just like my roughly 30 % annual return on real estate value over about 25 years is total shit, by your standards. After all, I have to pay property taxes every year. And since I haven't sold, the homes may be worth nothing tomorrow. Is this the investment "logic" you are espousing? By the way, just to cheer up the gloom a bit ...... Stock prices and home prices may not be crashing. But egg prices have! Egg prices are crashing. Here’s why It's terrible! Obviously a recession is coming! 😉 Edited January 30 by Kevin Slater pubic_assistance and EZEtoGRU 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 UPS reported its earnings yesterday. They are laying off 12,000 employees. Their revenue was DOWN 7.8% from the same quarter last year. This is most definitely bad news and a sign of an impending recession. + Travis69, BSR, pubic_assistance and 2 others 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BSR Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, augustus said: UPS reported its earnings yesterday. They are laying off 12,000 employees. Their revenue was DOWN 7.8% from the same quarter last year. This is most definitely bad news and a sign of an impending recession. FedEx also reported a decline in year-over-year package volume, down 2% in its fiscal Q2, the biggest decline being last June with 9%. Given that Americans shop online more & more, these declines are a bad sign. + augustus, pubic_assistance and + Travis69 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bokomaru Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 hours ago, BSR said: FedEx also reported a decline in year-over-year package volume, down 2% in its fiscal Q2, the biggest decline being last June with 9%. Given that Americans shop online more & more, these declines are a bad sign. People went on an extended online spending orgy, which all transportation companies benefitted from. Plus there were supply chain issues causing a huge shortage of air freight space which meant people who would normally get delivery of orders by freight had to switch to express services. UPS and FedEx had huge, but temporary, profits as a result. It was a supply-demand imbalance. Now that things are returning to normal, they have volumes coming down, year over year, but still have significantly more shipments than they did pre-covid. So the volume and profit windfalls are over. It’s back to normal (good, instead of very exceptional) growth now. Yes they are bellwether companies. But the numbers don’t mean impending recession. They mean the results must be viewed in light of tough comps that are specific to the express transportation industry. + Travis69, EZEtoGRU, craigville beach and 3 others 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZEtoGRU Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) The main dynamic at play for UPS in 2023 was them narrowly avoiding a strike by workers on August 1 over wages and other issues. Negotiations went on for months and many shipping customers started re-directing their shipments through other channels to ensure delivery. UPS lost customers during this period so revenue and profits fell substantially. They have since recovered some of, but not all, the lost business which explains the weak Q4 results Edited January 31 by Kevin Slater + augustus, Marc in Calif and + Travis69 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthOfTheBorder Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/30/2024 at 12:17 AM, augustus said: How is it an increase in wealth if you can’t sell it or monetize it? incorrect logic - you can sell it. you’re choosing not to sell it because you don’t like the options. sounds like you want to stay put exactly where you are, same city/same type home - that’s a choice. there’s always a less expensive option than what you have now & lower property taxes too. choices have consequences- make them wisely Marc in Calif, Walt and mike carey 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 2 hours ago, SouthOfTheBorder said: there’s always a less expensive option than what you have now & lower property taxes too. choices have consequences- make them wisely Disagree. People have jobs, family, etc that confines them to a particular location. Not everyone can move to a rural area at will to save on housing costs. Furthermore, inflated real estate values causes harm and misery to anyone looking for housing. Housing is a utility, like a car or pair of shoes. You think it would be good if shoes cost $700 a pair? Or a car cost 250k? Soaring housing costs damage an economy. They damage the standard of living, and it becomes a bubble supported by excessive debt which comes crashing down eventually. Edited January 31 by augustus pubic_assistance and BSR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 6 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said: The main dynamic at play for UPS in 2023 was them narrowly avoiding a strike by workers on August 1 over wages and other issues. Negotiations went on for months and many shipping customers started re-directing their shipments through other channels to ensure delivery. UPS lost customers during this period so revenue and profits fell substantially. They have since recovered some of, but not all, the lost business which explains the weak Q4 results WRONG. An agreement was reached a week before the previous UPS contract expired. There was no interruption of service. There was very little "re-directing their shipments" by customers and the size of UPS's reported drop in revenue would mean UPS would have moved NOTHING AT ALL for over a straight month, which obviously didn't happen. FURTHERMORE, the UPS contract negotiations were in July, 2023 which was the 3rd quarter. UPS's latest report which showed a 7.8% drop in revenue was for the 4th quarter, 2023. Edited January 31 by augustus pubic_assistance, Marc in Calif and EZEtoGRU 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthOfTheBorder Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 9 hours ago, augustus said: People have jobs, family, etc that confines them to a particular location. resistance to relocate for whatever reason is a barrier to wealth creation & economic opportunity. thats the entire problem with the largely unsatisfied & angry groups constantly complaining in the US today - they just want to complain about their situation and ignore the real choices that are within their individual control. I see it every time I go back to the small town where I grew up - same people doing the same thing for the last 50 years. if you’re convinced of your housing bubble theory - then you should sell now, rent until the crash & then buy low. problem solved pubic_assistance, Walt and Marc in Calif 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, SouthOfTheBorder said: resistance to relocate for whatever reason is a barrier to wealth creation & economic opportunity. thats the entire problem with the largely unsatisfied & angry groups constantly complaining in the US today - they just want to complain about their situation and ignore the real choices that are within their individual control. I see it every time I go back to the small town where I grew up - same people doing the same thing for the last 50 years. Most people just can't do that. They have a job where they already are, so they don't have other real choices. And moving children and elderly around like vagabonds is just horrible! And did you see the news about New York Community Bancorp? Big real estate losses and much more to come! pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZEtoGRU Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Wow...our famous multi-poster can't even read and process information correctly. I guess I shouldn't be surprised though. Marc in Calif, + Vegas_Millennial, SouthOfTheBorder and 4 others 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZEtoGRU Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just to help with comprehension. No-one said a strike occurred. The fact is that UPS lost a significant amount of business over concern there would be a strike in August 2023. Even though a strike was avoided, UPS still has not recovered all the business that they lost to other shippers in 2023. Therefore, Qtr4 results were still impacted negatively by events earlier in 2023. This was a quote from an analyst during the last seven days: UPS lost business last year as customers concerned about a possible strike by the Teamsters shifted shipments to rival carriers, such as FedEx. Although UPS said it expects to get most of that business back, it had won back only about 60% of that lost business. + augustus and Marc in Calif 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) 1 hour ago, EZEtoGRU said: Just to help with comprehension. No-one said a strike occurred. The fact is that UPS lost a significant amount of business over concern there would be a strike in August 2023. Even though a strike was avoided, UPS still has not recovered all the business that they lost to other shippers in 2023. Therefore, Qtr4 results were still impacted negatively by events earlier in 2023. This was a quote from an analyst during the last seven days: UPS lost business last year as customers concerned about a possible strike by the Teamsters shifted shipments to rival carriers, such as FedEx. Although UPS said it expects to get most of that business back, it had won back only about 60% of that lost business. LOL.....can you cite that "analyst". Might give you some credibility. UPS 4th quarter 2023 revenue dropped 7.8% from 4th quarter 2022 revenue. Has absolutely nothing to do with contract talks and a new labor agreement in mid 2023, as you so erroneously stated. Talk about comprehension OMG. You really think customers were avoiding UPS in the 4th quarter of 2023 after a contract was negotiated in July 2023?? UPS Releases 4Q 2023 Earnings ABOUT.UPS.COM UPS today announced fourth-quarter 2023 consolidated revenues of $24.9 billion, a 7.8% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2022. Edited February 1 by augustus EZEtoGRU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZEtoGRU Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) Huge profits announced today by Meta and also Amazon. The market surges. Then there’s this piece by Axios. Just a moment... WWW.AXIOS.COM The US clearly has performed better than the rest of the developed world since the onset of Covid. I’m actually concerned the economy is just too hot right now to consider interest rate cuts…even in March. Let’s see how things look once we get to March. Edited February 2 by Kevin Slater + Travis69, + augustus, Marc in Calif and 2 others 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 25 minutes ago, EZEtoGRU said: Well some folks can’t see the forest through the trees. Let’s get back to the real world. Huge profits announced today by Meta and also Amazon. The market surges. Then there’s this piece by Axios. Just a moment... WWW.AXIOS.COM The US clearly has performed better than the rest of the developed world since the onset of Covid. I’m actually concerned the economy is just too hot right now to consider interest rate cuts…even in March. Let’s see how things look once we get to March. Meta and Amazon do not represent the entire US economy. What about all the tech layoffs going on? What about the stress the banking system is now under? What about the high cost of living? These issues way override some revenue increases at Meta and Amazon. BTW, who gives a hoot about Meta? pubic_assistance and EZEtoGRU 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Slater Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Moderator's note: This forum is about personal investing. I just hid a lot of posts with interpersonal crosstalk and bickering. Any further such posts will subject the member to forum moderation (posts will have to be approved before published). Now let's get back to the subject at hand. Beancounter and pubic_assistance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ FrankR Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 13 hours ago, augustus said: BTW, who gives a hoot about Meta? I do. So does the market - it is up 17% today after announcing a dividend for the first time. Hard to make the case that a recession is imminent when tech companies are prospering. Nasdaq 100 index is up something like 80% for the year. Is a recession coming. Yes. Is it imminent? Does not appear so. Should you be ready, just in case? Always. EZEtoGRU, + stevenkesslar and Marc in Calif 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Things are NOT good. The economy is only humming along because of huge debt spending by the Federal Government (which is not sustainable and will itself cause a crises) and consumers going into debt. Layoffs Hit 10-Month High As Financial And Tech Companies Slash 39,000 Jobs (msn.com) + stevenkesslar, EZEtoGRU and pubic_assistance 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) 7 minutes ago, FrankR said: Nasdaq 100 index is up something like 80% for the year. That is a classic bubble. And the return is about 50% for the past year. Edited February 2 by augustus pubic_assistance, EZEtoGRU and + stevenkesslar 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pubic_assistance Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 48 minutes ago, augustus said: Things are NOT good. The economy is only humming along because of huge debt spending by the Federal Government (which is not sustainable and will itself cause a crises) and consumers going into debt. EZEtoGRU, + augustus, Marc in Calif and 1 other 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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