TonyDown Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Some real world data, be it limited, was a news piece this week about businesses closing in LA including several along Melrose. One factor is high rents for leased commercial space. Does this point to a recession coming? Even though employees are finding new jobs, how will rising commercial vacancies affect local economies? marylander1940 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BSR Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 hours ago, augustus said: This analysis is shocking and speaks volumes about what really is happening. Things are not well! Not really an analysis, more just telling the whole story. I started noticing that month after month the government would publish a stellar jobs report with great fanfare, only to very quietly revise it downward a week later. pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 hours ago, BSR said: Not really an analysis, more just telling the whole story. I started noticing that month after month the government would publish a stellar jobs report with great fanfare, only to very quietly revise it downward a week later. You are right. The government has been way overstating job growth. I'm sure the inflation numbers are fudged too. Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023 WWW.FOXBUSINESS.COM Increased government spending and hiring have padded 2023 year-end unemployment numbers by over 400,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. pubic_assistance and EZEtoGRU 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 hours ago, TonyDown said: Some real world data, be it limited, was a news piece this week about businesses closing in LA including several along Melrose. One factor is high rents for leased commercial space. Does this point to a recession coming? Even though employees are finding new jobs, how will rising commercial vacancies affect local economies? All over the country. In NYC restaurants are closing left and right. TGIF just closed 37 locations. Consumers have run out of purchasing power. pubic_assistance and EZEtoGRU 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/7/2024 at 4:39 AM, augustus said: In NYC restaurants are closing left and right. NYC New Restaurant Openings, December 2023 - Eater NY https://ny.eater.com/2023/12/7/23983007/nyc-restaurant-openings-december-2023 NYC’s Most Anticipated Restaurant Openings of 2024 - Eater NY https://ny.eater.com/2024/1/10/24023017/nycs-anticipated-restaurant-openings-2024 pubic_assistance, + stevenkesslar and + augustus 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, Walt said: NYC New Restaurant Openings, December 2023 - Eater NY https://ny.eater.com/2023/12/7/23983007/nyc-restaurant-openings-december-2023 NYC’s Most Anticipated Restaurant Openings of 2024 - Eater NY https://ny.eater.com/2024/1/10/24023017/nycs-anticipated-restaurant-openings-2024 NYC Restaurant Closings, December 2023 - Eater NY 40 New York Restaurants Closed in January: Here’s Why - Eater NY More are closing than opening. It's terrible! pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, augustus said: More are closing than opening. It's terrible! ? https://ny.eater.com/2023/12/7/23983007/nyc-restaurant-openings-december-2023 lists 73 opening in December NYC Restaurant Closings, December 2023 - Eater NY lists 23 closing in December. Am I misreading? pubic_assistance, EZEtoGRU, + stevenkesslar and 2 others 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 hours ago, Walt said: Am I misreading? Yes. That's as of January 16, 2024. More are closing now than opening. It's terrible! Over 40 Restaurants Have Closed This Month So Far: Here’s Why NY.EATER.COM Dozens of New York restaurants have closed since the start of the year. Five owners explain why. pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 hours ago, augustus said: That's as of January 16, 2024. More are closing now than opening. It's terrible! So 73 opened in December and 23 closed in December. https://ny.eater.com/2023/12/7/23983007/nyc-restaurant-openings-december-2023 NYC Restaurant Closings, December 2023 - Eater NY There have been "over 40" closings so far in January and there have been 61 openings so far in January: NYC New Restaurant Openings, January 2024 NY.EATER.COM New restaurant and bar openings in January 2024 Since December 1: 134 openings, 63+ closings. More are opening than are closing! + FrankR, + augustus and EZEtoGRU 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Slater Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Moderator's note: let's give this restaurant tally a break. Beancounter, + stevenkesslar and thomas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ stevenkesslar Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) After a brief break to catch something to eat, we now return you to your regularly scheduled recession. Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey show On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. Consumer sentiment has improved amid a drop in gasoline prices and solid stock market gains. This is horrible. Doesn't anybody realize a recession is coming? Edited January 20 by stevenkesslar marylander1940, pubic_assistance and EZEtoGRU 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: After a brief break to catch something to eat, we now return you to your regularly scheduled recession. Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey show On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. Consumer sentiment has improved amid a drop in gasoline prices and solid stock market gains. This is horrible. Doesn't anybody realize a recession is coming? Actually, we don’t feel better about the economy, it’s just taken awhile to adjust our budgets to the inflation shock. Anybody who shops for groceries know this story is bunk! From the Bureau of Labor Statistics.....“The index for cereals and bakery products rose 16.1 percent over the year. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 7.7 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs) to 15.3 percent (dairy and related products)". And now 2024 insurance premiums are rising at double digit percentages... medical, auto, home, etc. have all skyrocketed. And real wages have fallen the past 3 years. This is just straight up gaslighting. A snow job, just opinions and no data. pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 American dream far from reality for most people: POLL - ABC News ABCNEWS.GO.COM In a dispiriting sign of the times, barely more than a quarter of Americans say the American dream still holds true, about half as many as said so 13 years ago So many more people are broken and dispirited than after the 2008-2009 Great Recession and financial crisis. This is horrible. pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ stevenkesslar Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) 9 hours ago, augustus said: A snow job, just opinions and no data. Actually, no. There is data. Americans' net worth grew 37% after pandemic hit: Fed survey Real median net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 between 2019-2022 Auggie, it's horrible that the price of cereal has gone up. It's a wonder that people with $50,000 more in net worth aren't starving to death. How do they even get by? And worse, a recession is coming! 9 hours ago, augustus said: From the Bureau of Labor Statistics..... Quote Real average hourly earnings increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from December 2022 to December 2023 Again, there is data. While its true that the average person with $50,000 more in net worth by 2022 and higher real wages in 2023 can barely afford a bowl of cereal, the fact that we made it past the global inflation and supply chain squeeze might explain why people are feeling better. Ya think? The US had lower inflation than most of the rest of the West. Even though inflation sucks. And our economy came out the strongest on the planet. Maybe that helps explain why this recession has gone missing for so long??? It does help explain why my stock nerd nephew's net worth went up hundreds of thousands of dollars........... in the last few days! He bought SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022 and just kept buying more. Which speaks to why we might not have a recession. All that investment in tech and chips is paying off. The US is the global leader. I followed my nephew's lead, but own a lot less SOXL. So my net worth only went up tens of thousands in the last few days. It's horrible! A recession must be coming! 9 hours ago, augustus said: A snow job, just opinions and no data. That said, opinions do matter. 😉 Edited January 21 by stevenkesslar pubic_assistance, TonyDown, mike carey and 4 others 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said: Actually, no. There is data. Americans' net worth grew 37% after pandemic hit: Fed survey Real median net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 between 2019-2022 Auggie, it's horrible that the price of cereal has gone up. It's a wonder that people with $50,000 more in net worth aren't starving to death. How do they even get by? And worse, a recession is coming! Again, there is data. Y While its true that the average person with $50,000 more in net worth by 2022 and higher real wages in 2023 can barely afford a bowl of cereal, the fact that we made it past the global inflation and supply chain squeeze might explain why people are feeling better. Ya think? The US had lower inflation than most of the rest of the West. Even though inflation sucks. And our economy came out the strongest on the planet. Maybe that helps explain why this recession has gone missing for so long??? It does help explain why my stock nerd nephew's net worth went up hundreds of thousands of dollars........... in the last few day! He bought SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022 and just kept buying more. Which speaks to why we might not have a recession. All that investment in tech and chips is paying off. The US is the global leader. I followed my nephew's lead, but own a lot less SOXL. So my net worth only went up tens of thousands in the last few days. It's horrible! A recession must be coming! That said, opinions do matter. 😉 That mostly applies to a small percentage of the population, and that figure (which is not out of this world BTW) is concentrated in housing and stock prices, which may, and most likely will, decline. For the majority of people, things are horrible! People are fleeing your state left and right because of inflation in housing. It's all over the news. California was bragging about a $100 billion SURPLUS in their state budget a year ago and now California has a $60 billion DEFICIT! Out of nowhere. You can't see the forest for the trees. pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ stevenkesslar Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 30 minutes ago, augustus said: That mostly applies to a small percentage of the population, and that figure (which is not out of this world BTW) is concentrated in housing and stock prices, which may, and most likely will, decline. Like I said. There is data. If one chooses to drink it. The $50,000 average increase in net worth is an average. Meaning, for the vast majority of Americans, net worth increased. So, no, it is not a small percentage of the population. It is the vast majority. Stock ownership is in fact concentrated in the top 10 % of the population, as you argue. But my best friend, who is an escort, texted me his stock gain in 2023 - something like 25 % if I recall right. That's a five figure number, not millions. But it was meaningful to him. And he said it was a great Christmas present. My nephew is not rich. But once he hits the sell button on SOXL he and his wife can buy a home for cash if they want. The American Dream lives. Who knew? Oh, he'll also pay long term capital gains taxes. If we could all compromise, like we did in the 90s, that could help pay off the deficit. Which is a recessionary threat. And most Americans do see it that way. Meanwhile, 2 in 3 Americans own homes. Most with no mortgage or a low fixed rate mortgage. That is bedrock. Again, this helps explain why the recession has gone missing. You are correct that home values can go down. But so can inflation. It has. Meanwhile, real wages have gone up. You only want to focus on the bad news. Edited January 21 by stevenkesslar pubic_assistance, Walt, marylander1940 and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZEtoGRU Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Boom! US economy grew at a shocking pace in the fourth quarter | CNN Business WWW.CNN.COM The US economy remained shockingly robust in the fourth quarter to close out a remarkably strong 2023 as consumers and businesses continued to spend, crushing expectations... ...and the crowd goes wild!! + FrankR, + augustus, + stevenkesslar and 2 others 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 3 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said: ...and the crowd goes wild!! No one is going wild, with the price of goods and services up 30-40%. Edited January 25 by augustus + FrankR, Walt, EZEtoGRU and 1 other 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I've read details of this morning's report and things are not good. Nearly all of this growth came from government deficit spending and consumers going into more debt. This avoided a recession, but it isn't remotely sustainable, and we'll pay for it in the long run. There will be catastrophic results from all this debt! Also, initial jobless claims are rising rapidly. This whole deck of cards is being held up by massive spending by the Federal Government which is not sustainable by the opinion of any reputable economist. EZEtoGRU and pubic_assistance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Federal government deficit spending for 2023 was 6% of GDP, almost double the GDP "growth." Smoke and mirrors. Did anyone read the report and how much Government accounted for GDP? How is that sustainable? The only way it can be sustained is if Government investment spurs economic growth outside of government generating tax revenue to fund the government, and that is NOT happening. In fact, during the last Federal Budget year tax revenue was down 10% from the year before. pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 People are not being fooled by this propaganda. The economy is a long explanation of vague measurements. If you've maintained your same lifestyle for years you know at the end of the month after bills if you've got anything left over or not and how that compares to what you had before. Words can't cover up the fact that you can't afford the same stuff you could before. Too many people are 2 weeks out from bankruptcy and the soaring costs of EVERTHING does not help the average person! pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Some people might notice the looming disaster of the federal debt as the interest payments on the debt approach the highest category of federal spending. This is going to lead to double digit inflation. I have to ask, how do you deal with all this spin and not get dizzy? The people KNOW the economy is not good and inflation is ravaging the majority of Americans! pubic_assistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJOCK Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Interesting response from the above members. The reality is, there are a number of reasons for a recession. A recession will arrive with certainty. I don't think it will be in the short term, however. Soft landing? At the moment things look pretty good. I believe I heard the economy grew at 3.3% last quarter and the economists had expected about 2.0%. Marc in Calif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ stevenkesslar Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 1 hour ago, augustus said: The people KNOW the economy is not good and inflation is ravaging the majority of Americans! Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey shows Quote The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021. On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. Consumer sentiment has improved amid a drop in gasoline prices and solid stock market gains. Edited January 25 by Kevin Slater pubic_assistance, + glutes, EZEtoGRU and 1 other 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 On 1/25/2024 at 1:47 PM, augustus said: The people KNOW I remember a very high stakes prediction similar to this involving Henny Penny, Foxy Loxy, Goosey Loosey, and Turkey Lurkey. They KNEW. EZEtoGRU, + augustus, + Vegas_Millennial and 3 others 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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