Bear market! Recession has it begun.

[Kcdave]

It looks like we are entering a bear market situation.  How we can avoid a recession is doubtful. Perhaps the recession has already begun.

how steep will the market decline be? I would imagine about 25% from its peak. But I’m not a good prognosticator. How many years will it take to get back to its all-time high? Is anybody’s guess. But it looks like the economy is going to struggle. Current policies and tariffs will be devastating for all of us who are investors. If we need our investments in the next 1 to 3 years. 
 

Perhaps the only good thing coming out of this is that the federal deficit won’t have to pay as much interest because the federal reserve is going to have to reduce the prime rates to deal with the recession. 
Will we see more quantitative, easing probably. Will we see interest rates dropping from its high today over the next 12 months probably.

Curious what others think. But it’s a tough time for all of us in America. 
 

Moderator note: politics redacted.

[+ sync]

My thinking is that the impending U.S. recession will likely encircle the globe and before long we will all be in the same boat.

[Nightowl]

It’s hard to respond to this without being political so all I’ll say is that the coming recession could be the worst most of us have seen in our lifetimes. For some, the devastation has already begun. I agree with @sync that it’s going to be global.

[+ FrankR]

18 hours ago, Kcdave said:

It looks like we are entering a bear market situation.  How we can avoid a recession is doubtful. Perhaps the recession has already begun.

how steep will the market decline be? I would imagine about 25% from its peak. But I’m not a good prognosticator. How many years will it take to get back to its all-time high? Is anybody’s guess. But it looks like the economy is going to struggle. Current policies and tariffs will be devastating for all of us who are investors. If we need our investments in the next 1 to 3 years. 
 

Perhaps the only good thing coming out of this is that the federal deficit won’t have to pay as much interest because the federal reserve is going to have to reduce the prime rates to deal with the recession. 
Will we see more quantitative, easing probably. Will we see interest rates dropping from its high today over the next 12 months probably.

Curious what others think. But it’s a tough time for all of us in America. 
 

Moderator note: politics redacted.

I suspect it will be worse than you think. Not only do we have significant economic policy problems, but we have severe fiscal and monetary impairments (just look at the USA’s debt levels) and unemployment will increase as more automation and AI driven development takes root. I started preparing in August 2024 and continue to take steps to prepare. I would be delighted to be proven wrong.

[Pd1_jap]

Since we seem to be repeating history, I assume there's going to be a great depression some time around 2028. 

Those whom do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. 

[Thelatin]

We are 3/4 way through the recession and markets will bounce back mid year.   Just my prediction.   By the time people start talking recession it seems to be almost over. 

[BeamerBikes]

This time it “feels” like it will be different than downturns in the past.

Moderator note: politics redacted.

The American consumer is done. Current retirees are entering retirement with very little savings. Housing costs are $$$ more than ever, mortgage defaults just hit another high. Definite pain is already here for most without savings/investments. Once the investment class get spooked, it’ll pull the last leg of spending out.  
 

Trying to find a bright spot here. Those that can adjusting lifestyle might be in a better spot. Meanwhile, if you already learned to make do with less, the adjustment won’t be anything new. 

[+ Charlie]

20 hours ago, Pd1_jap said:

Since we seem to be repeating history, I assume there's going to be a great depression some time around 2028. 

Those whom do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. 

Herbert Hoover imposed tariffs at the beginning of the Great Depression. We know how that turned out.

[Kcdave]

It will be a difficult time for most of us. It’s hard to determine. Do you ride it down if you’re invested. Based on AI information, the following is the average length of a recession.

“about 10 months

The good news is that recessions generally haven't lasted very long. Our analysis of 11 cycles since 1950 shows that recessions have persisted between two and 18 months, with the average spanning about 10 months. For those directly affected by job loss or business closures, that can feel like an eternity.”

as I stated when I posted this thread, you have to look at your personal needs to determine if you have 12 to 36 months of assets that aren’t in the market. If you do, you can probably ride it out.  If you don’t, then you have to consider what steps to take today. 

[MikePDNA51]

I graduated from university during the recession and the economy is never good. Obviously the stock market will go down its at an all time high.  I agree with everyone on this form. 

 

[Beancounter]

Let the games begin!  Opening bell tomorrow morning should be interesting.  

[Kevin Slater]

10 hours ago, Beancounter said:

Let the games begin!  Opening bell tomorrow morning should be interesting.  

Always exciting when your Fidelity account drops six figures at the open.

Kevin Slater

[Beancounter]

OMG, Kevin!  That’s got to be a shocking start to one’s day.  I wasn’t sure how my portfolio would hold up but I was surprised to see that I’m not doing too badly.  My holdings in Duke Energy, Verizon, The Southern Company and AT&T are helping to mitigate my substantial loss in ExxonMobil.   We’ll see how the day plays out.  

[+ sync]

Wow!  If things continue as they are in the markets for much longer, investors are going to be needing financial scuba gear.  I have a lot of sympathy for those relying heavily upon their 401k investments.

[Jim_n_NYC]

Well, the S&P puts I bought yesterday are going thru the roof.

[samhexum]

Just rode up in the elevator with my neighbor who told me that at the meeting I did not attend last week they announced that our maintenance will be going up 14% next month. That is in addition to the 5% it went up in June and the 5% it went up in January, so 24% in 11 months. And two assessments along the way, one of which was supposed to be ending soon, but according to that neighbor will not be ending after all. I'm so glad that all those new charges they told us about at last year's meeting, which were supposed to take care of our financial problems, apparently did not do that.

So that's about another $165 a month I will be paying, which is absolutely no problem at all since my vast financial empire is booming at the moment thanks to the brilliant tariff strategy which is seeing the stock market plummet today like it hasn't in years.

Well, at least I can look forward to my disability check being slashed in the future (if the collapsing SSA is able to get it out in time, that is).

WHAT A GREAT TIME TO BE POOR!  

Edited April 3 by samhexum
to more accurately relate the &@$#ing great situation he's facing.

[EZEtoGRU]

All so predictable. Let’s see how long the stock market rout lasts. Corporate layoffs have already commenced today also.  Stellantis (Chrysler/Ram/Jeep) announced today that 900 US  employees will be laid off. 

[Luv2play]

On 3/30/2025 at 1:32 PM, Kcdave said:

It looks like we are entering a bear market situation.  How we can avoid a recession is doubtful. Perhaps the recession has already begun.

how steep will the market decline be? I would imagine about 25% from its peak. But I’m not a good prognosticator. How many years will it take to get back to its all-time high? Is anybody’s guess. But it looks like the economy is going to struggle. Current policies and tariffs will be devastating for all of us who are investors. If we need our investments in the next 1 to 3 years. 
 

Perhaps the only good thing coming out of this is that the federal deficit won’t have to pay as much interest because the federal reserve is going to have to reduce the prime rates to deal with the recession. 
Will we see more quantitative, easing probably. Will we see interest rates dropping from its high today over the next 12 months probably.

Curious what others think. But it’s a tough time for all of us in America. 
 

Moderator note: politics redacted.

I agree the Fed may have to reduce rates but it is the bond market, and particularly for US treasuries, that will dictate whether the US government will pay less on its debt. 
 

I think there is a scenario when demand for US treasuries will decline, particularly from foreign buyers like the Chinese and Japanese. With higher tariffs on their exports their revenue will decline and they will have fewer dollars to invest in US bonds. 
 

The result will be less demand for US bonds and higher rates on bond yields and lower prices (the two go hand in hand). This would mean the government issued bonds would be costlier and drive up the cost of debt. 

[TonyDown]

On 4/1/2025 at 9:04 AM, Charlie said:

Herbert Hoover imposed tariffs at the beginning of the Great Depression. We know how that turned out.

Claiming Hoover caused the Great Depression. It's a popular myth.  Some of my favorite pundits are guilty.

But yeah, pulling the rug out from under existing markets with Trump tarriffs is going to hurt existing economies.  Seems insane. 

Will the US lose our seat at the table of modern trade?

[+ Charlie]

19 minutes ago, TonyDown said:

Claiming Hoover caused the Great Depression. It's a popular myth.  Some of my favorite pundits are guilty.

But yeah, pulling the rug out from under existing markets with Trump tarriffs is going to hurt existing economies.  Seems insane. 

Will the US lose our seat at the table of modern trade?

Hoover didn't cause the Great Depression, but the tariffs did nothing to help deal with it in the way he thought they would.

[jawjateck]

Futures point to another rout this morning. The smell of panic. Licking my chops over my shopping list....

[+ FrankR]

28 minutes ago, jawjateck said:

Futures point to another rout this morning. The smell of panic. Licking my chops over my shopping list....

Now we all want to know…whats on your shopping list?? 🤓

[pubic_assistance]

On 3/30/2025 at 1:32 PM, Kcdave said:

Perhaps the only good thing coming out of this is that the federal deficit won’t have to pay as much interest because the federal reserve is going to have to reduce the prime rates to deal with the recession.

I am heavily reliant on Real Estate for my retirement. Good news for me. My Commercial mortgages reset every five years. So it's great when the business climate provides a lower rate. I'm not the only one who it helps.

[Kcdave]

3 hours ago, jawjateck said:

Futures point to another rout this morning. The smell of panic. Licking my chops over my shopping list....

You and Warren Buffett with his $350 billion worth of cash. When we hit the low point he probably already has started his buying spree.

he is smarter than all of us because he started pairing back his positions last October, for instance, and APPLE, knowing he was stacking his cash for this day. His economist probably knew since Trump did not hide his view on what he was going to do that it was going to be an unsettled market.

I still hold my prediction that we will hit down 35,000. Before we get equilibrium and start to move upwards. A lot of Talking Heads have said the same thing thinking that we could still end up by 12/31/2025 equal to where we ended last year.

 

[EZEtoGRU]

Also, the US unemployment rate rose slightly in March to 4.2% from 4.1%. A minor increase to be sure, but let’s see how the trend line moves in the coming months. I predict a hockey stick graph as the deep recession takes root.