A vaccine may not be forthcoming.

[+ keroscenefire]

Yes, though MERS and SARS have much higher fatality rates so they burned out with decent containment. This novel coronavirus is much more transmittable. Hopefully we can create a vaccine because it will be with us for years. Either way, we have to learn to live with it and minimize how many die if we want to reduce the damage, including the economic damage. Whether we can develop a vaccine or not, eventually our species will adapt. Ideally, we will have treatments to manage symptoms, reduce deaths, and help the many survivors who with lifelong organ damage.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-mers-sars-experts/

 

 

MERS is actually still around, it's just not very transmittable..most cases are from camel to human transmission (human to human has been recorded but only in hospitals). There actually were 15 cases in Saudi Arabia in March. http://outbreaknewstoday.com/saudi-arabia-reports-15-mers-cases-in-march-2020/

[+ Bryan Dube]

The likely bigger driver of success is the large testing and contact tracing efforts in "successful countries" because they identify many asymptomatic cases before they spread the coronavirus far and wide. Here in the USA, testing is so limited that we generally only test people with symptoms and our overemphasis on illusory individual freedom over community good means enough of us resist wearing masks, isolating, distancing, and contact tracing that the virus still moves freely across America. There was a big birthday party in Pasadena not too long ago. One infected person was there coughing without a mask, no one else was wearing a mask or distancing, and now multiple people were infected, some seriously ill.

 

It's not just the large amount of testing and contact tracing (both of which we undoubtedly need), but they are making sure and have been making sure that patients who test positive are well. even those with mild symptoms. that's why their fatality rates are significantly lower.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html

"They call them corona taxis: Medics outfitted in protective gear, driving around the empty streets of Heidelberg to check on patients who are at home, five or six days into being sick with the coronavirus."

[LivingnLA]

MERS is actually still around, it's just not very transmittable..most cases are from camel to human transmission (human to human has been recorded but only in hospitals). There actually were 15 cases in Saudi Arabia in March. http://outbreaknewstoday.com/saudi-arabia-reports-15-mers-cases-in-march-2020/

 

Yes, I know. I was referring to outbreaks burning out. It's high fatality rate combined with vigilant testing and tracing has so far stopped it from becoming a pandemic, lucky for humanity.

[JayCeeKy]

Interesting article in The NY Times yesterday on how the pandemic might end based on previous outbreaks. "...the coronavirus pandemic could end socially before it ends medically. People may grow so tired of the restrictions that they declare the pandemic over, even as the virus continues to smolder in the population and before a vaccine or effective treatment is found."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

[+ bigjoey]

Interesting article in The NY Times yesterday on how the pandemic might end based on previous outbreaks. "...the coronavirus pandemic could end socially before it ends medically. People may grow so tired of the restrictions that they declare the pandemic over, even as the virus continues to smolder in the population and before a vaccine or effective treatment is found."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

 

I never thought of pandemics ending in any other way but medically. Interesting that history has a “social end” to some pandemics. I never realized that.

 

I see they included the 1968 pandemic in their list. To learn from past pandemics is why I brought that pandemic up in prior posts: to learn from the past.

[LivingnLA]

I never thought of pandemics ending in any other way but medically. Interesting that history has a “social end” to some pandemics. I never realized that.

 

I see they included the 1968 pandemic in their list. To learn from past pandemics is why I brought that pandemic up in prior posts: to learn from the past.

 

Pandemics have biological, psychological, and sociological aspects. That's part of why epidemiology is so complex. The many variables of human behavior on an individual level are complicated enough but get even more complex at population scale.

Edited May 12, 2020 by LivingnLA

[+ Reisr30]

MERS is actually still around, it's just not very transmittable..most cases are from camel to human transmission (human to human has been recorded but only in hospitals). There actually were 15 cases in Saudi Arabia in March. http://outbreaknewstoday.com/saudi-arabia-reports-15-mers-cases-in-march-2020/

? to human transmission huh? Let me ponder that for a moment ?

[+ bigjoey]

Pandemics have biological, psychological, and sociological aspects. That's part of why epidemiology is so complex. The many variables of human behavior on an individual level are complicated enough but get even more complex at population scale.

I understood the effects beyond the pure medical aspects. I just did not think that those aspects could declare the end of the pandemic.

 

This matches up with a story in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal where in Europe the seniors are starting to revolt and do not want to live in a bubble. They are wanting to be included in the phase outs of the lockdowns.

[+ keroscenefire]

COVID could truly end up becoming like the flu with limited herd immunity, yearly vaccines, treatments and the ebb and flow of social distancing keeping the disease somewhat in check but never eliminated. It's deadlier now because both the medical system and our individual immune systems have never seen this virus before and so we don't know really what to do with it. As we understand this virus more and more people have been exposed to it, it likely will become a lot more treatable. But like with the flu, we could still see tens of thousands of deaths per year, especially among the most vulnerable populations.

 

We might need to put in social distancing protocols periodically as outbreaks happen in certain areas. I like what they are doing in New Zealand, having everyone think of their lives as a "bubble" that shrinks or expands depending on the severity of the disease outbreak in an area. When things are really bad, the bubble shrinks to just your immediate household and then expands to close friends and family, entire communities and eventually the rest of the world as the threat of the virus lessens.

[+ purplekow]

As it stands now, only one viral has ever been known to have been eradicatedt and that is smallpox. Even that is not totally extinct as both Russian and US laboratories have stores of it. One need to be able to consider eradication of a virus is that it have no animal vector as a reservoir. Coronavirus 19 seems to also be present in bats and has been found in other animals as well.

Viral elimination or limitation of disease has been largely successful,, when it has been successful, by mean of vaccination and isolation. Diseases, such as polio, measles, mumps and several others have been limited due to that means. However, even those are around and break out once and again. People are tested and isolated and contacts checked, That is what has been successful in controlling those diseases and it is what has been successful with Coronavirus in places that put that brand of control into place. Test, diagnose, isolate, and limit the spread. Here is the US we are so far from that right now and headed in the opposite direction. It would not be surprising for the rest of the world to put limitations of travel to the US the way travel limitations were placed for Ebola, no one in or out. Just recently in Korea, a place where control of the disease has been good, there was a Covid positive patient who went to a crowded nightclub and now they are searching for thousands of people who may have come into contact. That kind of ability is just not within the current US system.

Besides the more than 70000 deaths in the US the cost can also be measured in hospital days resulting from the disease. The average length of stay of hospitalized Covid Survivors is 14 days or so. Most hospitals have an average stay between 4 and 6 days. The cost for caring for Covid patients is also very high given the need for protective equipment for personnel and for the rooms.

So the cost of Covid is in lives, in jobs, in health care costs and since it is likely that there is a vector in bats, it is not going away.

[Rudynate]

Here is the US we are so far from that right now and headed in the opposite direction.

 

I don't actually have any direct memories of quarantines but I remember, as a kid, hearing adults talk about quarantines. In grade school, our health education textbooks were from the 1940s and they talked about scarlet fever, polio and rheumatic fever quarantines and showed pictures of houses with quarantine notices posted on the front of the house.

[Guest]

...Masks in public as a cultural norm would not only reduce covid-19 transmission, but would also reduce the annual flu and common cold...

 

I don't necessarily doubt that statement, but do you have a reference to back it up?

[hypothetically]

I just read an article from the Journal of Virology from October 2011 concerning the development of a Coronavirus vaccine,. Yes 2011. In that article, it predicts the need for a vaccine and speaks to the difficulties in producing a vaccine. Much of the article is above my pay grade and might be beyond yours too. The main aspect of producing a coronavirus vaccine of which I was unaware, is antibody dependent enhancement (ADE). While some antibodies prevent the movement into the cells of the coVid virus through the main gateway, there are some coronaviruses that actually attach to the antibodies produced as a result of the vaccine and the antibody=virus complex finds a side door into the cells that the virus by itself cannot use. So that giving the vaccine actually allows the antibodies formed to facilitate further destruction by the virus. This is not true of all coronaviruses but it presents another hurdle to the manufacturing of a vaccine. Testing will need to be done not only to prove that a vaccine is beneficial,, but that it has to test that is not detrimental.

The fact that there has been work on a vaccine since 2011 is a double edged sword. Among the negatives are that they have not found one yet so 10 years of research has not done what we are being told will be accomplished in the next few months to a year and one half. The good news is that there has been a lot of ground work done and pitfalls have been recognized.

The take home message from this: a vaccine is not a new idea, it has not been developed over a decade of work, it might make things worse in some cases, but at least we are not starting from ground zero.

 

can you share the article?

[LivingnLA]

I don't necessarily doubt that statement, but do you have a reference to back it up?

 

Hand hygiene matters too. Here you go:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/how-hong-kong-beating-coronavirus/611524/

Hong Kongers were so successful in their efforts that even the flu season ended six weeks earlier than usual. And now life returns to normal in Hong Kong: Museums and libraries are already open, and schools are reopening. People are able to go out and live their lives.

Hongkongers insisted on masks very early on, even while their government hesitated. It seemed to be a significant contributor in their success managing the coronavirus and the seasonal flu.

 

And here's an article about some data and modeling spelling out the probabilities and science:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/

https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/

 

And here's another scientific study about the efficacy of surgical masks for source control of coronavirus and the flu:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

Edited May 13, 2020 by LivingnLA

[+ Charlie]

A friend of mine was in charge of the WHO campaign to wipe out small pox, and every time they thought they were finished, they would find another isolated pocket of it, usually in someplace like Ethiopia. We haven't even begun trying to do the same with Coronavius-19, so it will almost certainly still be around for much of our lifetime. It will be necessary for us to find ways to live with it and manage it, but we will, just as we have with other infectious diseases.

 

Twenty years ago, if someone told you that in order to board an airplane today, you would have to go through a checkpoint where you would empty your pockets and take off your shoes, you would have thought they had gone mad. We will work out whatever is necessary to minimize the danger of getting sick, but we won't eliminate it altogether.

[thickornotatall]

If there are medical treatments for those infected with the virus, life can go on even if there is no vaccine. Think of HIV/AIDS where those infected now have a chronic condition rather than a death sentence. If medical treatments can lower the death rate of those persons hospitalized, then this virus becomes something like the flu. Now keep in mind that tens of thousands still die from the flu each year but we manage to live with it.

Contracting AIDS/HIV is more or less a personal choice of sexual partners and condoms....VS...Corona 19 …..which is more deadly than seasonal flu..When I see deniers with no protection in stores I cut a wide swath...Let them get sick...but get the fuck away from me....https://www.bing.com/search?q=how+is+coronavirus+spread++vs+flu&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&ghc=1&pq=how+is+coronavirus+spread+vs+fl&sc=8-31&sk=&cvid=4409FCCDCB2A4B0CBD48AF23901A489A

[+ bigjoey]

Contracting AIDS/HIV is more or less a personal choice of sexual partners and condoms....VS...Corona 19 …..which is more deadly than seasonal flu..When I see deniers with no protection in stores I cut a wide swath...Let them get sick...but get the fuck away from me....https://www.bing.com/search?q=how+is+coronavirus+spread++vs+flu&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&ghc=1&pq=how+is+coronavirus+spread+vs+fl&sc=8-31&sk=&cvid=4409FCCDCB2A4B0CBD48AF23901A489A

 

Absolutely in becoming infected often involves a choice. My point was not how you become infected, but once infected AIDS/HIV is now a treatable chronic condition. Once, it was a death sentence.

 

If medical therapies are found that can treat people with the virus to lessen/shorten the infection and take away the fear of dying in an ICU, then having a vaccine is not that important. These treatments will take away the fear of those of us in high risk groups from going out. With such treatments, we can perhaps hope to return to a “ normal” life.

 

Currently, restaurants are starting to open with restrictions in place on sanitizing and physical distancing but I have a fear of going out. These medical therapies would banish that fear.

[+ purplekow]

can you share the article?

It is in the Journal I suggested but when I look it up I cannot find it there but there article itself has that stamp. I will get you the link and post it here.

[thickornotatall]

Absolutely in becoming infected often involves a choice. My point was not how you become infected, but once infected AIDS/HIV is now a treatable chronic condition. Once, it was a death sentence.

 

If medical therapies are found that can treat people with the virus to lessen/shorten the infection and take away the fear of dying in an ICU, then having a vaccine is not that important. These treatments will take away the fear of those of us in high risk groups from going out. With such treatments, we can perhaps hope to return to a “ normal” life.

 

Currently, restaurants are starting to open with restrictions in place on sanitizing and physical distancing but I have a fear of going out. These medical therapies would banish that fear.

I never trust anyone to be as careful with cleanliness as I am....I've seen roaches and rats in the best restaraunts dirty dishes/glasses/cutlery....Let's see how the keep it 100% hygenic.....Meanwhile...back to kitchen..I set the table and clean up...Tom cooks....Guarnteed I clean up better than Betty Wright...with bleach wipes and ProBan..

[+ oldNbusted]

Good overview and a segment on vaccines...

 

PBS NOVA Decoding COVID-19

[LivingnLA]

It is in the Journal I suggested but when I look it up I cannot find it there but there article itself has that stamp. I will get you the link and post it here.

 

@hypothetically, pubmed.gov is your friend and our tax dollars at work.

 

@purplekow, were you referring to this paper? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3187504/ or was it this one? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3187484/ Those were the only two I saw in the October 2011 of J Virology that seemed relevant, but I was quick scanning on pubmed.gov so I may have missed one or perhaps pubmed wasn't complete.

 

While I was searching, I saw this interesting overview of current vaccine candidates.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211703/

Edited May 14, 2020 by LivingnLA

[mike carey]

I have noted the path of the Australian flu season elsewhere, but the advent of Covid-19, although it is cutting a swathe through our society, has not been without effects that could be to our benefit. Although the flu season isn't fully under way, the incidence of flu cases has reportedly been running at 10% of the level last year. In parallel, the uptake of the influenza vaccine has been double the level last year. Both of those point to a lower level of influenza this year. In addition, social distancing directed at minimising the spread of Covid-19 is likely to have the effect of reducing other respiratory infections that are spread by similar vectors. There will be debates about whether that sort of anecdata can be relied on without peer reviewed reporting, or whether any link is causal or simply correlation. If the incidence of other diseases is lower this year, the balance of probabilities is that the Covid-19 restrictions were what caused it. (Anecdote: Interviewing a NZ family that had been locked down for four weeks, on the TV news here, they reported that the usual sequence of colds and sniffles suffered by the children had been absent this year.)

 

In the likely event that there is no vaccine next winter (yours from December and ours from June 2021) the continued application of Covid-19 precautions is likely to similarly lower the levels of other disease.

[+ bigjoey]

While I have been steady in my belief that we will not see a vaccine anytime soon, a friend just sent me information about a vaccine going into clinical trials:

https://m.jpost.com/opinion/hillels-tech-corner-migvax-israeli-covid-19-vaccine-closer-to-trials-626512/amp

 

 

A Google search brings up more stories about the company and the institute behind it. As an aside, three Arab Gulf states are cooperating with Israel on the Coronavirus work; they must be onto something for that to happen.

[+ Charlie]

I have noted the path of the Australian flu season elsewhere, but the advent of Covid-19, although it is cutting a swathe through our society, has not been without effects that could be to our benefit. Although the flu season isn't fully under way, the incidence of flu cases has reportedly been running at 10% of the level last year. In parallel, the uptake of the influenza vaccine has been double the level last year. Both of those point to a lower level of influenza this year. In addition, social distancing directed at minimising the spread of Covid-19 is likely to have the effect of reducing other respiratory infections that are spread by similar vectors. There will be debates about whether that sort of anecdata can be relied on without peer reviewed reporting, or whether any link is causal or simply correlation. If the incidence of other diseases is lower this year, the balance of probabilities is that the Covid-19 restrictions were what caused it. (Anecdote: Interviewing a NZ family that had been locked down for four weeks, on the TV news here, they reported that the usual sequence of colds and sniffles suffered by the children had been absent this year.)

 

In the likely event that there is no vaccine next winter (yours from December and ours from June 2021) the continued application of Covid-19 precautions is likely to similarly lower the levels of other disease.

"Anecdata" : I love that term! Did you invent it?

[Guest]

Hand hygiene matters too. Here you go:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/how-hong-kong-beating-coronavirus/611524/

 

Hongkongers insisted on masks very early on, even while their government hesitated. It seemed to be a significant contributor in their success managing the coronavirus and the seasonal flu.

 

And here's an article about some data and modeling spelling out the probabilities and science:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/

https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/

 

And here's another scientific study about the efficacy of surgical masks for source control of coronavirus and the flu:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

To know what's going on in Hong Kong, assuming we trust their data (and that's a big if), we would need to know the antibody levels in the community. As a place that gets quite hot and steamy by April, it may just be that the virus has been less virulent there, and now they have major herd immunity.

The one scientific study you quoted does show some decrease in spread of Coronavirus (probably, p=0.07) from those wearing masks. It's a bit of a leap of faith to say that they definitely reduce transmission, however. I think it's fair to say that masks probably do reduce transmission. That being said, NBC virology consultant/correspondent Dr. Joseph Fair caught Covid-19, while assiduously taking all precautions, probably on a flight in which everyone was presumably also wearing masks.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/virologist-hospitalized-coronavirus-believes-he-got-it-through-his-eyes-n1206956

 

Although I think it's likely that masks do help, I would have worded things more along the lines of "masks probably help reduce transmission" rather than that they "would" reduce transmission. Hopefully they do, and we should act on the assumption that they do, but we don't really know.