A vaccine may not be forthcoming.

[+ bigjoey]

To know what's going on in Hong Kong, assuming we trust their data (and that's a big if), we would need to know the antibody levels in the community. As a place that gets quite hot and steamy by April, it may just be that the virus has been less virulent there, and now they have major herd immunity.

The one scientific study you quoted does show some decrease in spread of Coronavirus (probably, p=0.07) from those wearing masks. It's a bit of a leap of faith to say that they definitely reduce transmission, however. I think it's fair to say that masks probably do reduce transmission. That being said, NBC virology consultant/correspondent Dr. Joseph Fair caught Covid-19, while assiduously taking all precautions, probably on a flight in which everyone was presumably also wearing masks.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/virologist-hospitalized-coronavirus-believes-he-got-it-through-his-eyes-n1206956

 

Although I think it's likely that masks do help, I would have worded things more along the lines of "masks probably help reduce transmission" rather than that they "would" reduce transmission. Hopefully they do, and we should act on the assumption that they do, but we don't really know.

 

From what I have read, the masks have a psychological effect. It keeps the person wearing the mask from touching their face and is a reminder to keep physical distancing. Having a constant reminder improves behaviors needed during the pandemic.

[+ sniper]

 

In the likely event that there is no vaccine next winter (yours from December and ours from June 2021) the continued application of Covid-19 precautions is likely to similarly lower the levels of other disease.

Yeah, I found I got way fewer colds when I just started wearing gloves on the subway in the winter, and fewer still when I made it a point to wipe down treadmill and bike handles at the gym BEFORE using them, not just after. I think that does a lot more to break up chains of infection than people realize, and hope it proves to be the case for COVID. We won't be able to see that for a while though.

[+ bigjoey]

More on vitamin D:

https://scitechdaily.com/vitamin-d-determines-severity-in-covid-19-researchers-urge-government-to-change-advice/

[RealAvalon]

The effectiveness of any vaccine is depending on the nature of the pathogen it is up against. HIV is a virus that mutates constantly - no effective vaccine. But with polio, a vaccine that was virtually 100% effective was possible.

 

COVID19. Likely not going to be 100% effective. There is no silver bullet. There will need to be larger societal remedies, beyond a shot in the arm.

 

And planning. And preparation. And governance.

[mike carey]

"Anecdata" : I love that term! Did you invent it?

I would love to take credit for it, but sadly I did not.

[+ honcho]

? to human transmission huh? Let me ponder that for a moment ?

 

<Warning - pure speculation>

 

Well, aside from the implication of sexual relief out in the desert, seems to me that if you're riding a camel which sneeze or coughs and pointed into a mild breeze it would be blown in your face. Or when feeding your steed ... We probably haven't done any studies of whether MERS is shed into sweat, but if Covid-19 (Sars-2-covid?) can be found in semen, then sweat doesn't seem implausible for MERS.

</Warning - pure speculation>

 

Doesn't seem at all farfetched to me.

[LivingnLA]

To know what's going on in Hong Kong, assuming we trust their data (and that's a big if), we would need to know the antibody levels in the community. As a place that gets quite hot and steamy by April, it may just be that the virus has been less virulent there, and now they have major herd immunity.

The one scientific study you quoted does show some decrease in spread of Coronavirus (probably, p=0.07) from those wearing masks. It's a bit of a leap of faith to say that they definitely reduce transmission, however. I think it's fair to say that masks probably do reduce transmission. That being said, NBC virology consultant/correspondent Dr. Joseph Fair caught Covid-19, while assiduously taking all precautions, probably on a flight in which everyone was presumably also wearing masks.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/virologist-hospitalized-coronavirus-believes-he-got-it-through-his-eyes-n1206956

 

Although I think it's likely that masks do help, I would have worded things more along the lines of "masks probably help reduce transmission" rather than that they "would" reduce transmission. Hopefully they do, and we should act on the assumption that they do, but we don't really know.

 

I do not believe I've used definitive language because we don't have enough good research, but even just thinking in terms of the physics, it seems logical to say masks can reduce the probability of transmission. The question is how much, but while we wait for that answer, we already know enough to reasonably say masks seem to play a source control role in reducing transmission of viruses like SARS-CoV-2. It isn't perfect. But, if everyone wears masks in public, the amount of virus in the environment will likely be reduced. Regarding the doctor probably infected on a recent flight, we know the eyes are a potential entry point. It appears conjunctivitis (pink eye) may be an uncomon COVID-19 symptom. Dr. Fair did not say everyone was wearing a mask. US carriers are generally only encouraging, not requiring, travelers to wear masks. If everyone on the flight wore masks properly for the duration of the flight, the amount of virus in the environment would likely be less than without masks. But, Dr. Fair said the plane was packed, so even with everyone wearing masks, he probably would've been infected anyway, especially if the infected person was within 6ft because of the likely duration of exposure.

 

Nothing is certain, but in terms of probabilities, I believe we should strongly encourage masks in public and require them in higher risk situations like grocery stores, workplaces, airplanes, and the like. But, I suspect this will continue to be a divisive issue. Maybe when the official death count surpasses 100,000 in about a week more people will care, but I doubt it.

 

We can't attribute all of this to masks, but it's interesting data to consider. Have you looked at the natural experiments in South Korea and Czechoslovakia? Those were discussed on the fast.ai research link I shared above. Here are two relevant graphs:

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by LivingnLA

[LivingnLA]

<Warning - pure speculation>

 

Well, aside from the implication of sexual relief out in the desert, seems to me that if you're riding a camel which sneeze or coughs and pointed into a mild breeze it would be blown in your face. Or when feeding your steed ... We probably haven't done any studies of whether MERS is shed into sweat, but if Covid-19 (Sars-2-covid?) can be found in semen, then sweat doesn't seem implausible for MERS.

</Warning - pure speculation>

 

Doesn't seem at all farfetched to me.

 

Aren't natural reservoirs fun to think about?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_reservoir

[LivingnLA]

We are still in early days and on trend for over 150,000 American dead, but this is some encouraging news about long-term immune response against COVID-19.

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

[+ bigjoey]

Bad news:

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/gilead-end-coronavirus-drug-trials-195535591.html

[LivingnLA]

Bad news:

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/gilead-end-coronavirus-drug-trials-195535591.html

 

Why are you saying it's bad news? It's expected since these trials were supposed to stop at the end of May. It does means access to remdesivir will be limited, but let's hope the results from the trials are good.

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/15/gilead-to-end-coronavirus-drug-trials-adding-to-access-worry-researchers/

[+ bigjoey]

Why are you saying it's bad news? It's expected since these trials were supposed to stop at the end of May. It does means access to remdesivir will be limited, but let's hope the results from the trials are good.

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/15/gilead-to-end-coronavirus-drug-trials-adding-to-access-worry-researchers/

 

It is a question what will happen with access.

[wklukas]

https://nocamels.com/2020/06/israel-researchers-rambam-campus-cannabis-covid19/