How long till Dow Jones hits 40,000 and S&P 5,000?

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

7 hours ago, Atyla said:

How often do you guys check your portfolios?

Once per month.

[samhexum]

If it can gain 112 points in an hour and a quarter, the Dow will hit 41,000 today.

It got as high as 30 points away before finishing about 45 points short of 41,000.

Edited July 16, 2024 by samhexum
Because I am more bored than you could possibly imagine.

[Johnrom]

The anticipated rate cuts helping this rally now. 

[BonVivant]

Well the markets blew past those targets. 
 

where to next?

[samhexum]

All the other indexes, or indices if you prefer, took a bath today, but the Dow climbs on…

It passed 41,200 but finished at 41,198.

[pubic_assistance]

Living in NYC I know a LOT of people who work for the various big financial institutions.

Dinner conversations most ALWAYS center around how they spend all day "cooking the books".  It seems that much of the success of Wall Street is marketing designed to get naive new money ( Russian, Chinese and Arab State ) investors to sign on so they can pay dividends to old investors out of their money. I can say without a doubt that 12 of the BIG investment firms are now all operating as Ponzi schemes. At some point the new money will run out and it's all coming crashing down. The whole system is reliant on clueless foreign investors. God help us all when someone figures out it's all a lie.

[Kevin Slater]

2 hours ago, pubic_assistance said:

Living in NYC I know a LOT of people who work for the various big financial institutions.

Dinner conversations most ALWAYS center around how they spend all day "cooking the books".  It seems that much of the success of Wall Street is marketing designed to get naive new money ( Russian, Chinese and Arab State ) investors to sign on so they can pay dividends to old investors out of their money. I can say without a doubt that 12 of the BIG investment firms are now all operating as Ponzi schemes. At some point the new money will run out and it's all coming crashing down. The whole system is reliant on clueless foreign investors. God help us all when someone figures out it's all a lie.

Huh?  How would one party purchasing equities fund dividend payments to shareholders?

Kevin Slater

[pubic_assistance]

33 minutes ago, Kevin Slater said:

Huh?  How would one party purchasing equities fund dividend payments to shareholders ?

I don't work in finance.

I am sharing dinner conversation. Not technical data.

All I know is that they are admitting to paying dividends with other people's money. I have no idea how.

[+ augustus]

On 7/17/2024 at 6:06 PM, pubic_assistance said:

The whole system is reliant on clueless foreign investors.

You are right to a degree.  Many Chinese invest in real estate sight unseen and don't understand the risks.

And read about Credit Suisse "CoCo" bonds (contingent convertible bonds).  $17 billion in bonds that were rendered worthless to the holders as part of Credit Suisse's recapitalization.  These bonds are only supposed to be seized if a bank's equity falls to zero.  Credit Suisse's equity did not fall to zero. The holders were mostly Asians.

Edited July 26, 2024 by augustus

[marylander1940]

A picture is worth 1,000 words! Growing but no bubble!

[Beancounter]

I’m waiting for my capital gains distributions in December and will then cash out of the market and take my very substantial gains from the past two years.  I’ll then take a wait and see stance for the next several months.  Proposed tax cuts, possible tariffs with accompanying inflation and a ballooning federal deficit don’t bode well in my estimation.  At my age I’m looking for capital retention.  I’m too old to weather another recession.   Only time will tell.   I’m taking care of me the best I know how.  My financial journey is different from everyone else’s.  
 

Will the market hit 44,000?  Again, time will tell.

[+ PhileasFogg]

I’m still processing recent events, but I’m not long term bullish   At least not yet.

we know to expect bias toward lower taxes in coming months.  If that doesn’t come with spending cuts, then it’s inflationary - and inflation isn’t good for financial assets.

If we swallow austerity and make spending cuts, that’s recessionary because GDP=C+I+G+(x-m) and G is Government.  A big reduction in G would need to be offset by outsized growth in C (Consumer) or I (Investment).   I doubt net Exports (x-m) will do much.  So, I’m going to take my time making projections until I see out things shake out in Washington.  

[sutherland]

17 hours ago, Beancounter said:

At my age I’m looking for capital retention.  I’m too old to weather another recession.  

3 years ago I sold an apartment when the Dow was 10,000 points lower than it is today.  All the financial experts were shouting "there's a recession around the corner" so I've been waiting for 3 years to put that cash in the market at low prices during the recession. Now I'm regretting not going into the market 3 years ago when the Dow was at 34,000

[Kevin Slater]

5 hours ago, sutherland said:

3 years ago I sold an apartment when the Dow was 10,000 points lower than it is today.  All the financial experts were shouting "there's a recession around the corner" so I've been waiting for 3 years to put that cash in the market at low prices during the recession. Now I'm regretting not going into the market 3 years ago when the Dow was at 34,000

Yeah, I'm not a fan of timing the market.  (As they say, time in the market is more important.)  I would dollar cost average my way in.

Kevin Slater

[BuffaloKyle]

Whoever bought a ton of Tesla stock before the election is making out great.

[sutherland]

On 11/8/2024 at 1:49 PM, Kevin Slater said:

I would dollar cost average my way in

I like that idea. I'll give it a try

[+ PhileasFogg]

On 11/8/2024 at 12:49 PM, Kevin Slater said:

Yeah, I'm not a fan of timing the market.  (As they say, time in the market is more important.)  I would dollar cost average my way in.

Kevin Slater

If you missed the market's 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%.
 

This is a quote from Hartford Funds.  I’ve validated it in the past, but not recently.  You’re right.  Timing simply doesn’t work.    One can’t win a game sitting on the bench

[topunderachiever]

Imagine if Artificial Intelligence developed as expected, by instructing itself (AI) to continuously find ways to become:

cheaper, faster, better, with near zero energy requirements.

Every step of the way, the Nasdaq will be pummeled.  

DeepSeek is only the beginning.  Nvidia will go broke.  ChatGPT, OpenAI will be cassettes and rotary phones.  

Watch out.  

Edited January 27 by topunderachiever

[56harrisond]

DeepSeek ‘Sputnik moment’: $1 trillion wiped off US stocks after Chinese firm unveils AI chatbot

 

The race for domination in artificial intelligence was blown wide open on Monday after the launch of a Chinese chatbot wiped $1tn from the leading US tech index, with one investor calling it a “Sputnik moment” for the world’s AI superpowers.

Investors punished global tech stocks on Monday after the emergence of DeepSeek, a competitor to OpenAI and its ChatGPT tool, shook faith in the US artificial intelligence boom by appearing to deliver the same performance with fewer resources.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed down 3.1%, with the drop at one point wiping more than $1tn off the index from its closing value of $32.5tn last week, as investors digested the implications of the latest AI model developed by DeepSeek.

 

‘Sputnik moment’: $1tn wiped off US stocks after Chinese firm unveils AI chatbot | DeepSeek | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Trump calls emergence of DeepSeek a ‘wake-up call’ amid doubts about sustainability of western artificial...

 

[Kevin Slater]

5 hours ago, topunderachiever said:

Imagine if Artificial Intelligence developed as expected, by instructing itself (AI) to continuously find ways to become:

cheaper, faster, better, with near zero energy requirements.

Every step of the way, the Nasdaq will be pummeled.  

DeepSeek is only the beginning.  Nvidia will go broke.  ChatGPT, OpenAI will be cassettes and rotary phones.  

Watch out.  

DeepSeek is still based on Nvidia chips, although (reportedly) far fewer than other models.  One could make the argument that a more level playing field wherein many more entrants, not just the megacaps, could build AI models would be good for Nvidia-- fewer gold pans per miner, but way more miners.

Kevin Slater

[BuffaloKyle]

The question is now how long until the dow drops below 40,000?

[Nightowl]

2 hours ago, BuffaloKyle said:

The question is now how long until the dow drops below 40,000?

I thought that too. Didn’t realize the original post was a few years old.  Now that we’re on a down slide, 40,000 is only a few days away. 

[sutherland]

On 3/10/2025 at 8:36 PM, Nightowl said:

40,000 is only a few days away. 

This is the season to buy - my list of ETFs is prepared

[Bokomaru]

It’s fun reading old comments on threads like this. 

Did @Beancountersell like he said he would? (What great timing! Tell us when you’ll jump back in, please.)

@BuffaloKyle’s comment on Tesla now reads as a bit humorous. 

@sutherlandmakes an assertion that it’s time to think about buying. Maybe he’s right. Or maybe not.
 

If there’s one thing our predictions prove, it’s that predictions are at best a 50/50 shot. My prediction is that some will be wrong and some will be right. 

[BuffaloKyle]

59 minutes ago, Bokomaru said:

@BuffaloKyle’s comment on Tesla now reads as a bit humorous. 

Yeah I just looked it was around 500 a share at the end of 2024 and now it's at 250 a share.