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Lotus-eater

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  1. It was a terrible decision by a NY court to apply NY law (which has a narrower scope to the inevitable discovery exception) to a search conducted by Pennsylvania police within Pennsylvania. On the bright side, the federal court decided to allow all of the evidence to be admitted in the federal trial. If convicted (federal prosecutors rarely lose a case), he will rot in federal prison for a very long time.
  2. Historic D.C. townhouse owned by JFK and William Marbury (of Marbury v. Madison) has sold for $6.1 million: https://robbreport.com/shelter/celebrity-homes/jfk-dc-presidential-campaign-home-sells-1238060857/#recipient_hashed=d1c076ce027f6f576e2f6e744cebd8356ffc6e31ca901691e2401500b77c73d1&recipient_salt=fe9756824f82c003d9428447aad9c87cfcd5a74611f39545d44605355bb75958
  3. You can buy Michael Kors's summer house on Fire Island: https://robbreport.com/shelter/celebrity-homes/michael-kors-beach-house-new-york-fire-island-1238055514/
  4. Defamation is not a viable case if the statement is true, but a tort claim might be: public disclosure of private facts or intentional infliction of emotional distress. But the cost to litigate it would probably exceed any damages awarded unless he could prove, say, he was denied a promotion or job because of the disclosure.
  5. Where can I find this vending machine that dispenses checks?
  6. New entry for that table: Attack on Iran. Trading days to trough: 21. % change to trough: -7.8%. Trading days back to even: 15. (I hope the short sellers took their profits on March 30.)
  7. Trina Turk, who was one of the ringleaders in getting the Marilyn Monroe statue moved because it is deemed to be too kitschy and titillating (while selling skimpy swimwear for women and men), is selling her Palm Springs house. https://robbreport.com/shelter/celebrity-homes/gallery/trina-turk-soleil-house-palm-springs-photos-1237766061/trinaturk_soleilhouse_ca_18/
  8. Retirement planning software like Boldin is useful to check how much you should convert to Roth.
  9. Military conflicts are associated with increased market volatility, not major bear markets. Only the Arab oil embargo was associated with a long downturn that took more than 6 months to recover from: S&P 500 responses to select military interventions and hostilities since World War II Event Start date* Trading days to trough % change to trough Trading days back to even N. Korea invades S. Korea June 25, 1950 15 -12.9% 56 U.S. spy plane shot down in USSR May 7, 1960 2 -0.6% 4 Bay of Pigs invasion April 15, 1961 6 -3.0% 14 Cuban Missile Crisis Oct. 16, 1962 6 -6.3% 13 Gulf of Tonkin Incident (Vietnam) Aug. 2, 1964 4 -2.2% 29 Lead-up to Six-Day War (June 6) May 14, 1967 15 -5.6% 20 Tet Offensive (Vietnam) Jan. 29, 1968 25 -6.0% 46 Cambodian Campaign (Vietnam) May 1, 1970 18 -14.9% 86 Yom Kippur War, Arab oil embargo Oct. 6, 1973 42 -16.1% 6 years** Soviet-Afghan War Dec. 24, 1979 7 -2.3% 10 Intervention in Grenada Oct. 25, 1983 11 -2.8% 15 Lead-up to intervention in Panama Dec. 15, 1989 2 -2.2% 8 Iraq invades Kuwait, oilfields seized Aug. 2, 1990 50 -15.9% 131 Lead-up to Gulf War (Desert Storm) Jan. 1, 1991 6 -5.7% 13 Intervention in Yugoslavia (Balkans) March 24, 1999 3 -4.1% 11 U.S. spy plane captured in China April 1, 2001 3 -4.9% 7 War in Afghanistan Oct. 7, 2001 1 -0.8% 3 Lead-up to Iraq War Feb. 5, 2003 24 -5.6% 28 Russia intervention in Ukraine Feb. 11, 2022* 17 -7.4% 27 12-Day War (Israel/U.S. and Iran) June 12, 2025 5 -1.3% 7 Average of all 20 events — 13 -6.0% 28
  10. Individuals may behave irrationally, but the market is made up of millions of people, many of whom are much smarter and better informed than you are, not to mention unemotional computer algorithms, which is why virtually no single individual has been able to beat the market over the long-term. Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has only matched the return of S&P 500 since 2000.
  11. Lump-sum investing outperforms in that study due to the time-in-the-market effect since the investment is made on Day 1 of the investment year. Had the lump-sum investment been made on Day 365 of the year, it would have underperformed dollar-cost averaging. For withdrawals, the reverse logic applies. Dollar-cost averaging beats withdrawing all of your yearly expenses on Day 1 of the year because your money stays in the market longer.
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