Is Florida real estate bubble about to burst?

[CuriousByNature]

11 minutes ago, pubic_assistance said:

Well...its NYC, not Topeka Kansas.

As far as Florida is concerned, its not so much the taxes as the insurance companies that are scaring people away.

SO much of Florida real estate was built on-the-cheap by developers and hurricane season rips them apart due to shabby construction. So the insurance companies have decided that high risk means high prices.

I hadn't realized there was such a difference between NYC and some of the Canadian cities.  My uncle in Vancouver pays about $10K per year in property tax on a house worth around $3.5 million.  It works out to about 0.29%.  For someone out there in Vancouver to pay $7500 per month, they would need to own a property worth about $33 million.

Edited August 6, 2025 by CuriousByNature

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

On 7/19/2025 at 12:05 AM, TonyDown said:

Still, who is buying Florida in this market?

Apparently wealthy New York City residents are.  NY Post reported a surge in wealthy people inquiring about Florida real estate at the end of June: 

Luxury real estate brokers say wealthy New Yorkers are already...

NYPOST.COM

---

"My number one job will be moving people from New York to Florida. Again,” celebrity broker Ryan Serhant...

 

 

Edited August 6, 2025 by Vegas_Millennial

[pubic_assistance]

1 hour ago, CuriousByNature said:

I hadn't realized there was such a difference between NYC and some of the Canadian cities. 

Yeah..its pretty absurd here. My house is worth far more than $3.5M but no where near $33M.

This is one of the reasons New Yorkers eventually leave and head to Florida when they retire. 

[Luv2play]

11 hours ago, marylander1940 said:

They're not even coming to visit... they just don't feel welcome and would rather buy property in the Bahamas. 

 

Our dollar hasn’t really “collapsed”. At around 72.5cents US to our dollar, it is 10 cents higher than when I lived in Miami at the turn of the century. And in the last 6 months it has strengthened against the US dollar as have most other currencies since the new president took over. 
Canadians fleeing the Florida market are doing so more because of rising insurance and other costs, and the unfriendly attitude of the current administration to Canada which is causing problems at the border.

[pubic_assistance]

15 minutes ago, Luv2play said:

Our dollar hasn’t really “collapsed”. At around 72.5cents US to our dollar, it is 10 cents higher than when I lived in Miami at the turn of the century.

I seem to remember when I was younger that US and Canadian coins were somewhat interchangeable because the Canadian dollar was nearly one-to-one with the US dollar. A 28% difference DOES sound pretty depressed if that were true.

Edited August 7, 2025 by pubic_assistance

[Luv2play]

7 minutes ago, pubic_assistance said:

I seem to remember when I was younger that US and Canadian coins were somewhat interchangeable because the Canadian dollar was nearly one-to-one with the US dollar. 

That was in the 1970’s. In 1976 I remember our dollar was higher than the US. Oil  and OPEC had a lot to do with it.

[pubic_assistance]

1 minute ago, Luv2play said:

That was in the 1970’s. In 1976 I remember our dollar was higher than the US.

That tracks. I was a kid in the 70s. I remember people in the US would accept Canadian coins and even commented they were worth slightly MORE than US currency. 

[CuriousByNature]

13 minutes ago, Luv2play said:

Our dollar hasn’t really “collapsed”. At around 72.5cents US to our dollar, it is 10 cents higher than when I lived in Miami at the turn of the century. 

But back in 1900 wasn't our dollar still on the gold standard?  

[Luv2play]

14 minutes ago, CuriousByNature said:

But back in 1900 wasn't our dollar still on the gold standard?  

Everyone was.  Britain went off the gold standard during the First World War and Churchill restored it in 1925. But that failed and they went off it during the depression in the 1930’s. And Nixon in 1971. 

Edited August 7, 2025 by Luv2play

[CuriousByNature]

3 hours ago, Luv2play said:

Everyone was.  Britain went off the gold standard during the First World War and Churchill restored it in 1925. But that failed and they went off it during the depression in the 1930’s. And Nixon in 1971. 

I was just kidding - I know you meant the most recent turn of the century... 

[Frequentflier]

On 7/18/2025 at 10:08 PM, pubic_assistance said:

My real estate taxes on my house are $7500 a month and I'm on a prime West Village block.

$20K is absurd. I'm guessing your quoting the fee for one of those Arab Oil Sheik piggy-banks on 57th st.

"$7,500 a month"? That's $90,000 a year. Or did you mean $7,500 a year?

[Frequentflier]

On 7/18/2025 at 10:08 PM, pubic_assistance said:

My real estate taxes on my house are $7500 a month and I'm on a prime West Village block.

$20K is absurd. I'm guessing your quoting the fee for one of those Arab Oil Sheik piggy-banks on 57th st.

"$7,500 a month"? That's $90,000 a year. Or did you mean $7,500 a year?

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

7 hours ago, Frequentflier said:

Or did you mean $7,500 a year?

You won't pay that little for taxes on a condo/co-op in a year in Manhattan, much less on an actual house in the West Village.  I'm guessing a house in Manhattan in @pubic_assistance's neighborhood (West Village) starts at $12-15 Million.  So, $90,000/year in taxes is less than 1% of the property value, which is about right.

[pubic_assistance]

21 hours ago, Frequentflier said:

"$7,500 a month"? That's $90,000 a year. Or did you mean $7,500 a year?

No. I meant $7,500 a MONTH 

@Vegas_Millennial has the math correct.

[marylander1940]

 

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

6 minutes ago, marylander1940 said:

 

It's been 3 years since @marylander1940started this topic.  I'm still waiting for house prices to become more affordable in Florida!  The market has come down a little bit, but not enough.

[marylander1940]

12 minutes ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

It's been 3 years since @marylander1940started this topic.  I'm still waiting for house prices to become more affordable in Florida!  The market has come down a little bit, but not enough.

[Nue2thegame]

47 minutes ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

It's been 3 years since @marylander1940started this topic.  I'm still waiting for house prices to become more affordable in Florida!  The market has come down a little bit, but not enough.

Doesn’t look like a “bubble” to me. I think the best that you can hope for the short term is a relative plateauing. I don’t think prices are likely to drop in the near term.  The effect of further interest drops may be a factor, as well. 

[Lotus-eater]

Price-to-rent ratios in Miami & Ft. Lauderdale are in the low 20s (not as high as SF or LA, which are around 35), which makes renting somewhat better than buying. Shady Pines is running a move-in special if you use discount code: Sophia.

Edited yesterday at 08:44 AM by Lotus-eater

[mike carey]

15 minutes ago, Lotus-eater said:

Shady Pines is running a move-in special if you use discount code: Sophia.

Shady Pines? Shady? What were they thinking?

[Nue2thegame]

24 minutes ago, mike carey said:

Shady Pines? Shady? What were they thinking?

Caveat emptor

[BSR]

12 hours ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

It's been 3 years since @marylander1940started this topic.  I'm still waiting for house prices to become more affordable in Florida!  The market has come down a little bit, but not enough.

Are you looking only in/around Fort Lauderdale?  Or in other parts of Florida?  I’ve heard/read that prices have dropped 15-20% in the Fort Meyers area, 4-10% in greater Tampa whereas prices are steady or still rising in Palm Beach/Ft Lauderdale/Miami.

As someone who has been considering a move to Miami, I am shocked by how much prices have increased.  I keep thinking the bubble has to burst at some point, but nope, prices just continue to climb.  Correction:  had been considering, ‘cuz I’m afraid I’ve been priced out.

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

8 hours ago, BSR said:

Are you looking only in/around Fort Lauderdale?  Or in other parts of Florida?  I’ve heard/read that prices have dropped 15-20% in the Fort Meyers area, 4-10% in greater Tampa whereas prices are steady or still rising in Palm Beach/Ft Lauderdale/Miami.

As someone who has been considering a move to Miami, I am shocked by how much prices have increased.  I keep thinking the bubble has to burst at some point, but nope, prices just continue to climb.  Correction:  had been considering, ‘cuz I’m afraid I’ve been priced out.

I just visited Ft Meyers/Tampa areas for my first time ever last week.  While nice, I like the Atlantic side better.  I may consider further north near West Palm Beach.

I want have a house on the water, close to an Amtrak train station for trips to NYC, within an hour of an airport and cruise terminal, and (most importantly) within 30 minutes of an Eagle, Johnsons, and LeBoy.

Edited yesterday at 06:03 PM by Vegas_Millennial

[Lotus-eater]

3 hours ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

I want have a house on the water, close to an Amtrak train station for trips to NYC, within an hour of an airport and cruise terminal, and (most importantly) within 30 minutes of an Eagle, Johnsons, and LeBoy.

I would have thought an Eagle, Johnsons, and LeBoy were the cruise terminal.

[mike carey]

9 hours ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

I want have a house on the water, close to an Amtrak train station for trips to NYC ...

Train from Florida to New York? That's positively un-American!