marylander1940 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Op note: Rising interest rates, inflation, rising population, and a hike in insurance rates because of climate change even though some deny it. I think it will be a readjustment As interest rates rise, uncertainty looms over South Florida real estate market buyers, sellers WWW.CBSNEWS.COM As 2023 draws to an end, it is clear that South Florida's real estate market continues to change but what is unclear is what direction it will take. 10 Most Overpriced Housing Markets in the US — 5 Are in Florida FINANCE.YAHOO.COM Although the housing market is finally cooling down, there are some areas across the U.S. where the market remains hot, and buyers are still paying much more than... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthOfTheBorder Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 It s already happening. Listing prices are routinely being lowered now throughout Florida, including Miami & Ft Lauderdale. The price growth over last 3-5 is not sustainable. The only thing that kept it alive was somewhat reasonable interest rates. The property taxes are higher (higher percent of assessed value) in Broward County (Ft Lauderdale) than Los Angeles. Home insurance in Florida is the most expensive in the country and many places are uninsurable. The list goes on & on & on. The only people who think it’s a good idea to move to Florida are people domiciling there as formal US residence and traveling the world. A billionaire like Bezos (who is moving to Florida) isn’t going to actually live there. Or people who really haven’t spent much time there. Florida real-estate has and many boom & bust cycles. The bust is here. EZEtoGRU and Frequentflier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pubic_assistance Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 3 hours ago, SouthOfTheBorder said: The only people who think it’s a good idea to move to Florida are people domiciling there as formal US residence and traveling the world. Don't forget all the people who moved to Florida from Blue States over differences in "viewpoints". I can't say more without getting into a political discussion. + Vegas_Millennial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BSR Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Insurance costs have skyrocketed in Florida. If you live in a single-family home, not only are you dealing with staggering increases in premiums but also (for many) mandatory costs like roof replacement. For condo owners, their individual homeowners premiums have increased as well as the building's policy, which means much higher HOAs. Homeowners also face increases in property tax due to inflating home values. Huge increases in insurance and property taxes on top of too-high median home prices mean that many homeowners will be forced to sell, which leads to ... uh oh pubic_assistance and SouthOfTheBorder 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BSR Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, pubic_assistance said: Don't forget all the people who moved to Florida from Blue States over differences in "viewpoints". I can't say more without getting into a political discussion. Honestly, I don't know how many people moved to Florida for political reasons. I'm guessing finances were a much more significant factor. High state & local taxes used to be fully deductible but are now capped at a $10K max. Residents of high-tax states got crushed, including a fair number of forum members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pubic_assistance Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, BSR said: I don't know how many people moved to Florida for political reasons. There's an interesting article in Forbes Magazine recently on that subject. I won't say more and risk violating the no political discussion policy. + Vegas_Millennial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bokomaru Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) Unlike most of the country, South Florida has a bright line beyond which it cannot develop. It’s called the Everglades and it’s the reason that Ft Laud is now building UP. The lack of property for development will very much help support the market there, which has a supply shortage. Prices might be inflated, but the days of a huge, cyclical crash are nowhere to be seen. Insurance increases are certainly a real issue. But please note that home owners are protected from large increases in their property taxes. A 3% max increase for your primary residence has been state law for decades. So no one is getting priced out of their home due to tax increases from increasing valuations. Edited November 23, 2023 by Bokomaru Grammar pubic_assistance and + Vegas_Millennial 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ Vegas_Millennial Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 2 hours ago, BSR said: Honestly, I don't know how many people moved to Florida for political reasons. I'm guessing finances were a much more significant factor. High state & local taxes used to be fully deductible but are now capped at a $10K max. Residents of high-tax states got crushed, including a fair number of forum members. I am watching the Ft Lauderdale home prices; albeit not closely, but watching. I hope to move to Florida in about 5 years. It's cheaper for me to stay in Nevada, but for political reasons Florida suits my style more. I won't say why lest I violate the no politics rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MscleLovr Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 When I saw the thread title, my first thought was ‘Doesn’t it burst every 20 years or so?’ Does anyone know how the market in Key West property (small houses & condos) is holding up? I understand that no one likes to pay more in property taxes and insurance costs, but life is short and meant to be enjoyed. Daily life in Florida must still be extremely pleasant, especially during the Winter. + Vegas_Millennial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthOfTheBorder Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, MscleLovr said: Daily life in Florida must still be extremely pleasant, especially during the Winter. I’ve spent a lot of time in Florida over several decades & know it well. It used to be beautiful in the winter - clear skies, mild temperatures & dry. Last winter & spring, it rained almost every day with high heat & humidity. The weather has changed dramatically over the last 20-30 years. Last summer the temperature of the Atlantic (in South Florida) and in the Gulf of Mexico was 100+degrees at the surface. That never happened before for such an extended period of time. The rising sea, even if not visible on the coast has filled in the porous aquifer under Miami/Ft Lauderdale and other Florida cities so when there is heavy rain and/or king tides, there is nowhere for the water to go - which means massive flooding. Downtown Miami floods all time with roads impassable & flooded out cars. Less so in Ft L, but last April there was a “thousand year flood” with hundreds of flooded out vehicles & roads impassable for several days. It’s not going to get better. 1 hour ago, MscleLovr said: Does anyone know how the market in Key West property (small houses & condos) is holding up? for now Key West property is holding up. It’s not a nice place tho - very small island with cruise ships docking every day letting off thousands of passengers that generally destroy the quality of life for residents & other visitors. You cannot escape them. It used to be charming before the cruise ships, now tacky bars, shops & restaurants all for cruise ship people. Also floods frequently but not as bad as Miami & Ft L Edited November 23, 2023 by SouthOfTheBorder MscleLovr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthOfTheBorder Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, Bokomaru said: Unlike most of the country, South Florida has a bright line beyond which it cannot develop. It’s called the Everglades and it’s the reason that Ft Laud is now building UP. any new construction “building up” meaning a high rise building, will start at $1.2million anywhere you’d want to live. They aren’t building high rise residential towers in subprime or less desirable areas. The most recent new development starts at $1.6m for a low floor 2 bedroom apartment. The property taxes on $1.6M are $30,000 annual + the HOA will run $20,000++ minimum. That’s $50k annually if you paid cash for the apartment, plus skyrocketing homeowners & auto insurance. You can buy apartments in older buildings for much less near the beach - starting around $700,000 that would require renovation and the HOA would be much less. But, many of those buildings haven’t been maintained properly or inspected for decades. Just remember the collapse of the building in Surfside, FL a couple of years ago. The residents knew of major problems yet nobody wanted to pay to fix it. That’s a common thing there - so many older retired people in those buildings that won’t pay for anything. For decades, the main attraction to Florida was beautiful weather in winter/spring & very inexpensive w no state income taxes. Now the weather is unbearable for most of the year - unless you like heat, humidity & rain. While no state income taxes, everything else is very expensive. I don’t know what happens when properties become uninsurable because that means banks won’t lend money to buy. Insurance is a huge & growing problem that has not been addressed. Many insurance companies have pulled out of Florida completely. if you’re considering a move there - rent for at least 12 months and get a realistic view of quality of life, weather & cost of living. Edited November 23, 2023 by SouthOfTheBorder MscleLovr, EZEtoGRU and Beancounter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthOfTheBorder Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 10 hours ago, Bokomaru said: A 3% max increase for your primary residence has been state law for decades. So no one is getting priced out of their home due to tax increases from increasing valuations. this is accurate. that assumes someone bought property years ago. anyone buying now will get hit with taxable value as purchase price and those rates are extremely high. long-term homeowners are getting priced out in some areas due to insurance costs. Not unheard of $20,000 - $30,000 single family homes annual if close to the water. People are leaving because of that. The alternative is to go without insurance if your home is paid off - very risky for those who are older and the home is significant part of asset portfolio. To go without insurance is called going “RAW” - not kidding. For condominium dwellers their unit insurance costs may not go up dramatically - but the HOAs are looking at 25-35% insurance increases which is passed on to owners. Dig into all the details before buying there. The last Florida bust was 2008-2011 with the financial crisis & that wasn’t Florida specific. It feels like they are due for major correction. Given the capital required to buy there now & the insurance crisis, I don’t know how people afford it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ BenjaminNicholas Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 (edited) On 11/22/2023 at 4:18 PM, marylander1940 said: Op note: Rising interest rates, inflation, rising population, and a hike in insurance rates because of climate change even though some deny it. I think it will be a readjustment As interest rates rise, uncertainty looms over South Florida real estate market buyers, sellers WWW.CBSNEWS.COM As 2023 draws to an end, it is clear that South Florida's real estate market continues to change but what is unclear is what direction it will take. 10 Most Overpriced Housing Markets in the US — 5 Are in Florida FINANCE.YAHOO.COM Although the housing market is finally cooling down, there are some areas across the U.S. where the market remains hot, and buyers are still paying much more than... Parts of Florida, yes, but Key West remains very strong for both those looking to sell. And if you can swing it, a home in Old Town is an absolutely spectacular mental health investment. Quiet, friendly, local and away from the insanity of Duval. For reference, a small house with a dipping pool will run you $1.5+ Edited November 25, 2023 by BenjaminNicholas marylander1940 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marylander1940 Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 On 11/23/2023 at 1:14 AM, Vegas_Millennial said: I am watching the Ft Lauderdale home prices; albeit not closely, but watching. I hope to move to Florida in about 5 years. It's cheaper for me to stay in Nevada, but for political reasons Florida suits my style more. I won't say why lest I violate the no politics rule. the money you save in Nevada could end in the pockets of escorts... think about that! BonVivant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marylander1940 Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 On 11/22/2023 at 11:10 PM, BSR said: Honestly, I don't know how many people moved to Florida for political reasons. I'm guessing finances were a much more significant factor. High state & local taxes used to be fully deductible but are now capped at a $10K max. Residents of high-tax states got crushed, including a fair number of forum members. I guess very few people are as patriotic as @Vegas_Millennial ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ Vegas_Millennial Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, marylander1940 said: I guess very few people are as patriotic as @Vegas_Millennial ! Thank you. Anyone who would trade liberty for security deserves neither and will get neither. Wherever I move next will be a place that makes me happy. It will be within my price range and I will pay cash. I'm not going to quibble about a few more thousand dollars per year in insurance or real estate taxes, as long I am happy where I live. Right now, that place looks to be like Ft Lauderdale. Edited November 25, 2023 by Vegas_Millennial marylander1940, pubic_assistance and + augustus 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 "Climate change" is NOT the primary reason for Florida's sky-high homeowner's insurance. The cause is fraudulent roof-replacement schemes and too much litigation, coupled with generous attorney-fee mechanisms. If you lose a few shingles, you can sue the insurance company for a new roof AND have the insurance company pay your attorney fees. Hurricanes are nothing new in Florida and yet some point the finger at "climate change" for everything that is happening. Florida home insurance crisis: Floridians brace for yet another rate increase. Here's why. WWW.PNJ.COM Florida homeowners are about to get hit with another premium hike. Here's why premiums probably aren't coming down any time soon: + Vegas_Millennial, pubic_assistance and EZEtoGRU 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 Here's another article with the same conclusion....... Florida's homeowner insurance rates are four times the national average. That's not getting better anytime soon | CNN Business WWW.CNN.COM Hurricane season officially starts Thursday. But no matter how many storms hit Florida this year, the state’s residents are already struggling as they try to get homeowners’... + Vegas_Millennial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 From the article below by bankrate: "The biggest issue right now in Florida is home insurance fraud, driven by fraudulent roofing claims. A proclamation from the office of Governor Ron DeSantis notes that, although Florida only accounts for 9 percent of the country’s home insurance claims, it is home to 79 percent of the country’s home insurance lawsuits. Many of these lawsuits are fraudulent. ICA Carter explains how the scams generally work:" Can Lawmakers Save the Collapsing Florida Home Insurance Market? | Bankrate WWW.BANKRATE.COM Bankrate interviewed experts to learn why the Florida insurance market is in crisis. EZEtoGRU, pubic_assistance and + Vegas_Millennial 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ augustus Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 The trial lawyers have created litigation hell in Florida. Of course, premiums are going to soar! GTMike and pubic_assistance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthOfTheBorder Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, augustus said: Climate change" is NOT the primary reason for Florida's sky-high homeowner's insurance. The cause is fraudulent roof-replacement schemes and too much litigation, coupled with generous attorney-fee mechanisms while the reasons for the Florida insurance crisis can be debated - that means nothing to Florida homeowners that are facing huge premium increases or being dropped altogether. As more insurance companies exit Florida, the problem will only get worse & more expensive. Anyone considering a move to Florida & buying a home will soon experience exactly that problem. back to the OPs question about a Florida housing market bubble & prices: what happens when banks will no longer lend money to buy when the buyers either can’t get insurance ? or it becomes so expensive that it affects their ratios for loan approvals ? Banks will not loan money on a property that is uninsured or underinsured. Cash buyers cannot sustain the overall market. Unless the insurance problem is fixed, it will inevitably lead to a correction in pricing. Very basic economics - reducing the pool of potential buyers because of insurance crisis & stricter lending requirements leads to overall less demand. Time will tell. Edited November 25, 2023 by SouthOfTheBorder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pubic_assistance Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 The insurance companies are suffering because the building department standards have been so lax in Florida for decades. Most of these single family homes are NOT built to withstand the types of hurricanes that hit Florida on a regular basis. Homeowners with sub par construction SHOULD be paying more because they are a huge risk. + Vegas_Millennial, + augustus, marylander1940 and 1 other 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ sniper Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 On 11/25/2023 at 3:18 PM, pubic_assistance said: The insurance companies are suffering because the building department standards have been so lax in Florida for decades. Most of these single family homes are NOT built to withstand the types of hurricanes that hit Florida on a regular basis. Homeowners with sub par construction SHOULD be paying more because they are a huge risk. This. It's not at all just the litigation. Read "The Three Little Pigs" for further information. pubic_assistance and + Vegas_Millennial 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+ BenjaminNicholas Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 It's incredible how many insurers are pulling out of FL at the moment. It makes me glad I've had a USAA member number since I was 10. They wrote for me in Key West and have stuck by the policy without absolutely cash-raping me on premiums. I may regret saying any of this. We shall see. + Vegas_Millennial, marylander1940 and Hotmenloved 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pubic_assistance Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 9 hours ago, BenjaminNicholas said: It's incredible how many insurers are pulling out of FL at the moment. It's really not a surprise. I'm an architect and I do a lot of work in Florida (primarily renovations). The MAJORITY of single home construction is WAY below the standards of construction that are necessary to survive a hurricane BSR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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