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https://www.bing.com/search?q=the stand&form=SWAUA2

 

And yet I can't help but to go there as this is exactly what I think about every time something comes out about coronavirus. So that's my latest prep... reread and re-watch Stephen King's "The Stand". For those not familiar with it:

 

From Wikipedia

 

The Stand

Author Stephen King

Publication date

October 3, 1978

The Stand is a postapocalyptic horror/fantasy novel by American author Stephen King. It expands upon the scenario of his earlier short story "Night Surf", and presents a detailed vision of the total breakdown of society after the accidental release of a strain of influenza that had been modified for biological warfare causes an apocalyptic pandemic, killing off over 99% of the world's population.

Best.Book.Ever.

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Well the number of cases at the hospital at which I work doubled two days ago and then doubled again yesterday. Sounds ominous. We had one case, then 2 then 4. Not quite so ominous. The truth is, that we are preparing. We have contingency plans if there is a surge in cases. We will be testing in tents, We are telling people to stay home unless thy have a fever, shortness of breath and a cough. If you are not sick like that and you come to the ER, you will be sent home. In those cases, there is nothing medically to do but wait for you to get better or worse. For those who get worse, we have too few negative flow rooms. We have been using hep filters and we will be soon opening a floor of the hospital just for the Covid cases. The fact is, there are not enough people to work. Yesterday a doctor retired rather than care for Covid patients. I check my temperature twice a day as I have a chronic cough and chronic shortness of breath. If I get a fever, I am staying home, if not, hi ho hi ho it is off to work I go.

I worked at St Vincent's Hospital in the late 70's and we had many cases of the "gay virus". No one knew how you got it for sure and no one knew for sure what the cause was. People were scared, People panicked. Slowly facts came to light. Precautions were taken, Some fiddled while Rome burned and others took heed.

Take heed. Doing things to be safe ultimately will cost you less than if you don't and you wind up ill.

If you live alone, have friends check on you. Sometimes the fever can be debilitating and can make it very difficult to be in contact with the outside world. Stay home if you can, Pronhub is your friend. Netflix is your friend. A good book is your friend.

Seek out health care if you need it, Even if you become positive, you will likely do well. My guess is that once testing is widespread, the mortality rate will drop, though those at risk will still be at risk and those who get very sick will still need to get care. Resources will be strained and some are already in short supply.

Panic does not help. Ignorant behavior can kill. Find you place between those two for the best way to handle this in a reasonably sane way with optimal peace of mind.

Pick a number between 1 and 100. If the number is not 47 you survived like the 99% of the people who will eventually test positive for coronavirus. And I say, 99% because the number of positives will surge with further testing and mortalities will stay the same or decrease as a result of the testing. Therefore the rate will decrease but the danger is still there. Facts will eventually emerge. We will get better at this fast. We already have.

Edited by purplekow
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https://www.bing.com/search?q=the stand&form=SWAUA2

 

And yet I can't help but to go there as this is exactly what I think about every time something comes out about coronavirus. So that's my latest prep... reread and re-watch Stephen King's "The Stand". For those not familiar with it:

 

From Wikipedia

 

The Stand

Author Stephen King

Publication date

October 3, 1978

The Stand is a postapocalyptic horror/fantasy novel by American author Stephen King. It expands upon the scenario of his earlier short story "Night Surf", and presents a detailed vision of the total breakdown of society after the accidental release of a strain of influenza that had been modified for biological warfare causes an apocalyptic pandemic, killing off over 99% of the world's population.

Anyone listen to the audiobook?

This is the 2nd time this week I have heard someone mention it, was just about to get the ebook, but the idea of a Stephen King novel on audio is intriguing. Any thoughts?

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The Stand

Author Stephen King

Publication date

October 3, 1978

The Stand is a postapocalyptic horror/fantasy novel by American author Stephen King. It expands upon the scenario of his earlier short story "Night Surf", and presents a detailed vision of the total breakdown of society after the accidental release of a strain of influenza that had been modified for biological warfare causes an apocalyptic pandemic, killing off over 99% of the world's population.

 

Whatever rocks your boat.

 

For those of you who prefer the notion of 99 % survival (which, in this case, is quite literally the goal for anyone who gets COVID-19) here's a different version of Steven King. It's a 6 minute video. Spoiler alert: if you have not seen The Mist and want to, don't watch.

 

 

My own interpretation is slightly different than what's stated it that video. I think good fiction, like life itself, always has layers of ambiguity. Very few things are black and white. As the video states, King seemed to intend to leave his version ambiguous.

 

So the message seems kind of muddled. If it is a story of how collective action is the best response if you want everybody to survive, the movie subverts its own message. The one woman who breaks rank and goes off on her own actually has a better outcome than the guy who was saying we all need to be in this together. What the fuck is that about?

 

I assume King's point - or the movie director's point - is that while we are in the middle of the horror, we never really know for sure. That is why there is both fear, and hope. If we knew how it ended, we wouldn't really need either, would we?

 

That said, I agree with the fundamental point King, the director, and this video all want to make. Hope trumps fear. Ultimately, it is organized and purposeful collective action - in this fictionalized horror, the military - that does its job and saves the day. Ultimately, that's way better than being on our own.

 

I'll throw in one other cinematic example, which is clearer. And I think better, because it is a real life horror: AIDS. And I'm trying to keep this apolitical and nonpartisan, which I think I can.

 

I liked Dallas Buyers Club. As far as I can tell, the Gay Establishment embraced it. It won Oscars, and helped create sympathy. We were still two years on the other side of same sex marriage. It certainly helped to create empathy for transgender individuals.

 

There were things in the film that were excellent examples of dramatic license. They turned Ron Woodruff into a flaming homophobe. Even though he may have been a closet bisexual. True or false, it set up a narrative arc of redemption, and created sympathy for Gay men. I'll go with that. Whatever inaccuracies the film had, I assume the LGBTQ+ organizations who embraced it were able to see the forest for the trees.

 

That said, there was something nagging at me all through the film. It became really clear at the end, on a title card:

 

What ‘Dallas Buyers Club’ got wrong about the AIDS crisis

 

At [HIV/AIDS activist Peter] Staley's insistence, the film ends with a title-card noting that AZT went on to save millions of lives as part of HAART. But for the other two hours of the film's running time, the drug is spoken about in overwhelmingly negative terms.

 

You can read the story for details. But if you lived through AIDS, you know this already, painfully. The film spun AZT as a sort of government/FDA plot to poison Gay people, or innocent Straight cowboys like Ron Woodruff. In fact, AZT is what saved people's lives. The initial version, which amounted to an FDA crap shoot, was too toxic. But as that article says, it did extend life for a year or so. The real breakthrough was built on the foundation of AZT, when antiviral cocktails were tested and found to work better. The death rate collapsed by 80 percent in two years.

 

Meanwhile, most of what Woodruff sold through buyers' clubs was crap. AZT was the path to an effective therapy. Woodruff's stuff was never approved by the FDA, and ended up being a dead end. That said, it was a "what the hell?" drug. Something was better than nothing.

 

To go back to King, it's like that woman going off solo into the fog. In the middle of the horror, it's all ambiguity. Plus fear, and hope.

 

My problem with Dallas Buyers Club is it sold itself as a libertarian fantasy, when what really worked in the end was a speedy, science-based, and mostly empathetic government response. Same message as King's horror story. Instead of the military saving us from big bugs, AIDS was about the FDA saving us from microscopic ones.

 

There was one other hero we should all know, and honor: ACT UP. The Gay men and others who demanded an immediate, effective, and compassionate response to a global health crisis. Sound familiar? We, Gay men, of all people actually do know how to win a fight against COVID-19. There will be a lot of ambiguity along the way. But we know that hope beats fear.

 

Sorry if I pissed all over your script, @down_to_business. In the movies, 99 % of the world dying can be great - especially with extra refills of popcorn, which is why I go to movies. In real life, I kind of prefer the idea that 99 % of us live. But that's just me, being a dumb whore.

 

stay-calm-and-keep-hope.png

Edited by stevenkesslar
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Best.Book.Ever.

longest book ever too... read the complete unabridged novel... but it was amazingly good.

 

For everyone else... Read the book after you watch the miniseries... so you can still enjoy the miniseries. The book blows it away, so you won't enjoy it after.

 

I also corrected my original link above which was wrong and should have been

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/books/2020/03/09/stephen-king-decries-comparisons-between-coronavirus-and-the-stand/5002066002/

 

Finally @MrMattBig .. I didn't listen to the audiobook but think that is an excellent way to go. Consider the unabridged version.

Edited by down_to_business
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I worked at St Vincent's Hospital in the late 70's and we had many cases of the "gay virus". No one knew how you got it for sure and no one knew for sure what the cause was.

 

Therefore the rate will decrease but the danger is still there. Facts will eventually emerge. We will get better at this fast. We already have.

 

 

Thank your service.

 

Probably my favorite book ever is "And The Band Played On." There are lots of heroes and villains in it. But what has stayed with me more than anything is the commitment of the scientists and the doctors to do what you described so eloquently, based on your own experience. Again, thank you.

 

Speaking of which, and since I'll be spending a lot of time alone, I'll be using all this as jack off material. The narrative is sort of, "Dr. PK Saves The World", or some such thing.

 

Should I be casting you as Tom Cruise, or Val Kilmer?

 

9hy.gif

giphy.gif

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The Australian Government has just announced that they are imposing similar restrictions to those announced yesterday by New Zealand. After tomorrow,From midnight tonight everyone arriving in Australia will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, and cruise ships will not be permitted to arrive in Australian ports for the next 30 days.

Edited by mike carey
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Well the number of cases at the hospital at which I work doubled two days ago and then doubled again yesterday. Sounds ominous. We had one case, then 2 then 4. Not quite so ominous. The truth is, that we are preparing.

 

I know I have made my point, and I repeat myself. If there is ever a time to do that, calmly and rationally, this is it.

 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

When I looked at that yesterday, the number of US cases was about 2,150 I believe. When I was posting the earlier thread, it was 2550 or something like that. Now it is 2950. So it may not be double every day. But the horses are out of the barn.

 

If you look at the chart on the lower right hand side of that page, the yellow line (outside China) is following the pattern set in China almost exactly. In mid-Feb China had about 66,000 cases. Today, the world outside China is a bit ahead of that. Within a day or at most two, World Minus China will exceed 100,000 cases. Not the best time for travel anywhere.

 

We already know that that yellow line is going to keep growing. To achieve the outcome you see, China locked down Wuhan and other areas on January 23rd. Do the math. COVID-19 has estimated incubation periods of 5-14 days. So extreme action taken in late January would begin to show up in reductions in the rate of infection in mid-February. They did.

 

It's better to think about what things might look like in two months than what they look like today. That is the lesson of Italy, circa New Years Day 2020. Italy did not know that, of course. We do. What @purplekow described sounds like what is happening right now in every city and state, and every hospital in America. To me, the patriotic thing to do is to recognize the sacrifice doctors and nurses and others are making to save our lives, and make this as easy for them as possible.

 

If the virus had been left to grow at its own pace in China, every infected individual would have infected two or so more. Cases in China would now number in the millions. Even in an authoritarian state, at some point top down control would collapse - based on lack of doctors, beds, civil servants to monitor compliance, you name it. The good news is that the number of cases in China is leveling off about 80,000 - for now.

 

About 55,000 odd people have recovered and are going home to their families. People say they are tired of the inconvenience, but quite happy to be alive. China is starting to move into very slow and gradual recovery.

 

Instead of a horror movie, this is a movie about hope, to me:

 

 

I think if we want to save lives, we should all be Wuhans now - in one way or the other. We're all gradually coming to the realization that we can do much of this voluntarily. If we want to know what kind of preparedness works best, we know. This is it.

 

I'm tempted to post a picture of Hiroshima as a sort of point/counterpoint to the images above. It doesn't precisely make the point. So I'll say it instead. We can think of COVID-19 as a sort of viral Hiroshima. The buildings will be fine. It's just the people inside them that won't be. The good news about the "ghost town" approach is that the living and breathing people in those buildings are now going to be able to return to the streets, hopefully safely.

 

For those of us who live alone, there's actually a blessing in that. We're at the least risk of getting infected. If we get sick, we're at less risk of infecting someone else. China literally separated the sick from their families, and put them in quarantine centers. It was a sensible, albeit draconian, thing to do. The main form of transmission, in China at least, was from family member to family member.

 

The people I feel sorriest for, other than the sick, are families with kids. It will be a huge pain in the ass to keep the kids at home as schools close. If they go to school and get sick, they'll be fine. The problem is what happens when they bring the virus home to Grandpa. I'm glad not to have to make any of those choices.

 

This is really getting out of hand. Decided to make humus tonight and needed lemon juice and the mexican grocery store a couple blocks from my house said they sold out of lemons yesterday. WTF????? I ended up having to buy the presqueezed crap/

 

Some things in life are just unexpected blessings. I bought a house with a lemon tree in the back yard. I didn't even do it to be prepared for a time like this.

 

This is a good time to count our blessings, stay calm, and look forward to life after we beat a virus.

Edited by stevenkesslar
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American Airlines slashes international long-haul fights starting Monday. Australia and New Zealand flights are among those cancelled. Qantas hasn't announced any further cuts, so pending any announcement on that score, AA codeshare services on QF metal will probably be available.

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Announces-Additional-Schedule-Changes-in-Response-to-Customer-Demand-Related-to-COVID-19-031420-OPS-DIS-03/default.aspx

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I've found that stuff lasts FOR EVVA in the fridge, and while fresh is better, it's fine for a lot of things.

 

Yeah my homemade humus tasted the same with the presqueezed but it only takes a half lemon to make and enjoy using the other half cut up over a couple days in water and the presqueezed stuff is nothing like a fresh lemon slice in a glass of water.

 

Fortunately they did still have fresh limes. I love pisco sours and you need fresh lime juice for that not presqueezed.

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From midnight tonight everyone arriving in Australia will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, and cruise ships will not be permitted to arrive in Australian ports for the next 30 days.

I misunderstood this part, hence the correction in the original post. The announcement was about 1430AEDT, so anyone travelling from pretty much anywhere but New Zealand who weren't in the air were too late to catch a flight to arrive before the restriction came into force.

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Trump says some domestic travel restrictions under consideration

 

There have been internal discussions about restricting travel to areas in Washington state and other places considered “hot spots” for the virus. It’s unclear how far along they are in implementing them, people familiar with the matter told CNN.

 

Italy announces 175 deaths and 2,795 cases in one day from coronavirus

 

 

Washington-state-COVID-19-03.12-WEB-1020x496.jpg

 

I put those headlines and that chart up just as a preview of where things seem to be headed.

 

I think in terms of preparedness we should all start considering a mental adjustment. I think lockdown is our friend. I think trying to keep our lives as normal as possible is our enemy.

 

If this were China, this is the point where at least some of the US would go into involuntary lockdown. Actually, we are past that point. On Jan. 23, when Wuhan went into lockdown, China had 639 cases. They ended up with 81,000 cases as of today. The US now has just under 3,000 cases. Do the math. No matter what we do, we'll be over 100,000 cases before long.

 

Every story I read suggests that every country effected is headed for a voluntary lockdown of some sort. I think the quicker that happens, the better.

 

So we may have some sort of travel ban and lockdown in Washington and other "hot spots" soon. There already is a local lockdown in part of New York. But unless some other drastic things change in our mindsets, it buys us a few weeks. I put that chart up there as an illustration of how this will likely play out, state by state. The first case in Washington was reported Jan. 20. You can see how much this changed in just the last two weeks.

 

The problem with saying you can travel to Idaho but not Washington is that there is every reason to believe that in two weeks, Idaho will look the same way Washington looks today. And God knows what Washington will look like in two weeks. That's why I put that Italy headline up there. Absent a lockdown, there is no evidence anywhere on the planet that this won't just get worse. We don't want to be where Italy is. Meaning state by state we start running out of beds, ventilators, doctors, nurses, civil servants, etc.

 

I think this is the opposite of terrorism. The whole concept of terrorism is to hit us where we least expect it, when we least expect it. Like when we get on a plane. If not that, a subway. If not that, when we go to synagogue, or mosque, or restaurant, or grocery store. The whole point is to make anything "normal" something that could expose us to terror or death.

 

It never really works. And part of the reason is that human nature is to say, "Fuck it. Life is going to stay normal. I'll stay calm, and carry on." We actually do the same with long-term illnesses like cancer or AIDS. The whole idea is to keep life as normal as we can, for as long as we can.

 

I think what is working best with this virus is to just take that script and reverse it completely. China is doing it with a heavy hand, and South Korea with informed citizens that basically just don't want to get sick or die. But the basic concept is to embrace "abnormal". Don't go to work. Don't go to school. Don't go to the movies. Don't eat out. If this were China, and you were an infected Mom, you would not even play with your kids. You'd go to quarantine for a few weeks and get well, and also not infect your entire family.

 

Basically what we may need to do is embrace what feels "abnormal". And there's a huge payoff for doing so. If we do get sick, that could mean spending QT in a hospital bed with a ventilator. I'd rather have Netflix, thank you.

 

The CDC is obviously trying to climb a huge learning curve quickly to help us prepare. Earlier this week I was confused when they said anyone over 60 should stay home for "a period of time". Okay, but what does that mean? In the same story it quoted doctors saying this could be with us through 2020 and 2021. So what, I stay at home for a year?

 

The CDC did a different version of the same thing today. They are now saying shutting schools down for eight weeks is better than doing it for two or four. Even so, they are far from clear about how well any closure actually works, absent a larger plan of what the kids do while they are not at school.

 

There's new research that suggests asymptomatic individuals may be spreading this during an incubation period of up to two weeks before they becoming mildly sick, or just don't become sick at all. Example:

 

On Tuesday, Dr. Sandra Ciesek, director of the Institute of Medical Virology in Frankfurt, Germany, tested 24 passengers who had just flown in from Israel. Seven of the 24 passengers tested positive for coronavirus. Four of those had no symptoms, and Ciesek was surprised to find that the viral load of the specimens from the asymptomatic patients was higher than the viral load of the specimens from the three patients who did have symptoms

 

If this is correct, preparedness isn't just not being around people who are sick. Preparedness is also not being around people who are well, or at least think they are well. Logically, this would explain how it is that the virus has spread so far so fast and is growing exponentially.

 

One way or the other, the world is moving toward "abnormal" step by step. I think we should actually race toward abnormal. The countries that have embraced abnormal, like China and South Korea, are doing the best so far in keeping this under control.

 

I would welcome martial law at this point. I'm serious. Give me a hat that says "Make America Healthy Again" and I'll wear it. I am serious. This is a moment for unity and reason. We need to be all in, and also all in it together.

 

Given what we know, it would end this ambiguity about how long we keeps schools closed or how long we stay barricaded in our home or when Broadway starts their shows. Let's just get it over with. All the facts we know point to one thing: the sooner we do something like that, the sooner we can actually kill this virus. Or at least come up with strict, clear, and humane protocols to contain it every time and everywhere it pops up again. The sooner we embrace "abnormal", the sooner we can get back to normal. And at some point we'll have a vaccine and it's "Hasta la vista, COVID-19", to quote Arnie.

 

I'm gonna think of this one as the ISIS virus. If I were a trained soldier, I'd have to train to go fuck around in caves in Afghanistan. Or drive down booby trapped roads in Syria. So thinking about an 8 week or so war with the ISIS virus is a hell of a lot easier than that. I have to go to the grocery store with gloves on, and wash my hands the minute I get home. And if they are out of shrimp and lemons, worst case is that there's those cans of pork and beans in the back of the cupboard. And as much as it was fun to go to @Dane Scott's place and watch Parasite, we can just text and help each other keep the real scary parasites away.

 

If that's all I have to do to win the war against the ISIS virus, sign me up for that. It's sure as shit better than hospital food and a ventilator.

Edited by stevenkesslar
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I'm just waiting for the idiots in Sacramento to close down all restaurants and airports. Nearly all of our state legislators are in a state of total irrational panic and are being led brilliantly by our dump shit governor.

 

Don't worry.

 

The idiots in Sacramento are probably just like the idiots in Wuhan.

 

By the time they do something, it will be too late. Everything will be far, far worse.

 

Speaking of closing down restaurants and airports, that might have been something for them to consider back in January:

 

 

Mayor of Wuhan, epicenter of coronavirus outbreak, says 5 million people left the city before travel restrictions were imposed

Published: Jan. 27, 2020 at 5:00 p.m. ET

 

As a fifth case of the coronavirus was confirmed in the U.S., the mayor of Wuhan has warned that the world should expect infections to keep climbing.

 

On Sunday, Zhou Xianwang, the Mayor of Wuhan, said that 5 million people had left the city before travel restrictions were imposed ahead of the Chinese New Year. He said he expected at least 1,000 of some 3,000 suspected cases to be diagnosed with the highly-contagious virus.

 

There have also been three confirmed cases in the U.S., health officials in the U.S. said. The latest case, confirmed Saturday, was in Orange County; the person had recently visited Wuhan, and was in good condition. The gender and age of the person were not disclosed.

 

 

When that was written, as it says, there were five cases in the US. Now there are 3000.

 

Apparently, the last thing we need to worry about is idiots taking preventative action.

 

The US is basically on the same trajectory as Wuhan was. It is going up exponentially. So we just went from 2000 to 3000 in a day plus change.

 

So in a week, based on the actual trajectory in Wuhan, there will be 11,000 cases in the US.

 

In two weeks, based on the actual trajectory in Wuhan, there will be 40,000 cases in the US.

 

After that, it gets tricky. In Wuhan, by the time they hit 1000 cases, they went into lockdown. Airports, restaurants, and pretty much all normal daily life. So now they have 80,000 cases, and it has totally leveled off.

 

If we are idiots like them, and go into lockdown, maybe we could limit it to under 100,000 cases.

 

Otherwise, we could go a lot higher. CDC is saying over 200 million cases is the worst case scenario. That would mean over the half the people reading this are likely to be infected.

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All the grocery stores here are out of eggs, bread and bananas and onions and some are out of milk.

 

Why would people horde that stuff? Milk and eggs have a short shelve life so even if there is a shortage you can't freeze eggs.

 

Fortunately the farmer's market vendors I like to buy bread and eggs from anyway (i've gotten spoiled by farm fresh eggs and try to eat hers instead of store bought) and both were there. The lady that I buy eggs from had a limit of two dozen eggs. She told me a lady from a small city about 50 miles away was pissed off because she wanted to buy 25-dozen eggs to take back to give to neighbors LOL. She thought since she drove that far they should make an exception to the limit and she refused to budge and say it was a two dozen limit per customer.

My suburban grocery stores were devoid of fresh items like eggs, fruits, and vegetables.

 

But, the downtown stores (where urban living doesn’t allow space for stockpiling) were heaping with goods (except sanitizing products and toilet paper). I suspect that once someone sees items getting sparse, panic buying sets it. But since the urban customers are seeing plenty, they’re still shopping with a hand basket and not a shopping cart.

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I'm just waiting for the idiots in Sacramento to close down all restaurants and airports. Nearly all of our state legislators are in a state of total irrational panic and are being led brilliantly by our dump shit governor.
Rant much? OK...we get it. Anyone that stands in the way of your precious trip to Puerto Vallarta is gonna be on the receiving end of your ridiculous vicious attacks.

 

Time to get with the program and realize this is much bigger than you. Things are going to close. Perhaps everything will close (sans grocery stores and pharmacies). If that happens...so be it. You do see what's going on around the world with this virus right? Or is it all just a left-wing conspiracy.

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My suburban grocery stores were devoid of fresh items like eggs, fruits, and vegetables.

 

But, the downtown stores (where urban living doesn’t allow space for stockpiling) were heaping with goods (except sanitizing products and toilet paper). I suspect that once someone sees items getting sparse, panic buying sets it. But since the urban customers are seeing plenty, they’re still shopping with a hand basket and not a shopping cart.

 

same here.

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