Bear market! Recession has it begun.

[BeamerBikes]

I won’t be giving any financial advice for anyone.  I rebalanced in February, and thought I was crazy.  Now it’s officially crazy times.  Everything to follow is your mileage may vary. I’m not a professional advisor. Just middle aged single income a bit cynical doing alright for myself. 
 

The thumb is on the scale in the markets, and speculation is a fool’s errand.  Agreed with BuffaloKyle in this case.  If you are in the market, keep some quality companies and time for diamond hands.
 

If you can’t stomach the gyrations, just don’t put new money in. Build up a “sleepy money fund” in high yield savings/iBonds. Sleepy money isn’t bad if it helps YOU sleep better. 
 

Back to basics - try to zero out your debt, live within your means, etc. it’s not get rich quick, but it’s peace of mind. 

Edited April 10 by BeamerBikes
Finishing a thought

[mike carey]

Good evening, market reading genius here.

I went in to San Francisco this morning to revive memories of previous visits, and the sights and sounds of Gold Mountain (gold rush era Chinese name for the city, Melbourne was New Gold Mountain two years later, but I digress). Walking past an ATM decided that as I needed to convert money for ... Let's just say I wanted to buy some USD cash.

The bank rate was worse than the always lousy rate that my QF travel card offers (but that becomes competitive when the points on offer during bonus sales are considered). Due to my impecable timing, one AUD bought 2 US cents more one hour later. In other words I spent 5.5 AU cents more for each US dollar than I would have if I'd waited that hour.

The Australian stock market went up about 5% on opening Thursday (the announcement came over night in Australia), so both our market and our dollar have appreciated in the last few hours. Nobody can say that the current times are not interesting, whether that's a good or a bad thing is a matter of opinion.

[Luv2play]

Isn’t living in interesting times a Chinese curse?

[BuffaloKyle]

48 minutes ago, Luv2play said:

Isn’t living in interesting times a Chinese curse?

One of my co-workers recently just got his degree in history and I said to him the other day isn't it more fun just learning about history rather than living through it? 😅

[pubic_assistance]

16 hours ago, Luv2play said:

No. It’s just unplanned chaos. 

And you KNOW this how ?

Friends with Scott Bessent ?

Need I remind you that if it weren't for the valleys in the market, there would be no opportunity for investors to jump in. Every few years, the powers-that-be manipulate the market and scare away the amateurs.

 

[Luv2play]

1 hour ago, pubic_assistance said:

And you KNOW this how ?

Friends with Scott Bessent ?

Need I remind you that if it weren't for the valleys in the market, there would be no opportunity for investors to jump in. Every few years, the powers-that-be manipulate the market and scare away the amateurs.

 

Yesterday’s events in Washington showed how uncoordinated the Administration is on the tariff issue with various officials saying different things at the same time. I call that unplanned chaos. 

[EZEtoGRU]

Well the market is back down this morning.  Despite yesterday’s pause, so much economic damage has already been done. 
 

Make no mistake, the recession is still coming. Heck, it may have already started. 

[GTMike]

For the OP and anyone inclined to dig deeper into critical aspects of the global macro-economic levers, feel free to message me privately for one perspective analysis.

The report highlights how in addition to the attributable downward Stock Market reaction, the latest reversal of economic Policy had been further influenced by the simultaneous attributable cause and effect negative resulting response to our US & Global Bond Market.

[Luv2play]

Anecdotally there are many indications that a recession has started. All the trade uncertainty has fed into the financial markets, creating a new uncertainty concerning people’s wealth and financial security. 
The inevitable result will be a retrenchment in spending and investing which will impact employment levels. 
All this spells recession. 

[+ sync]

[pubic_assistance]

4 hours ago, Luv2play said:

I call that unplanned chaos. 

The butterfly effect.

Let's tear it apart, and see where the pieces land.

Every stock I own, was puchased during a "bad downturn". Every piece of real estate I own, was snagged at the bottom of a market shift.

The best time to buy is when everyone's telling you it's the worst time.

Edited April 10 by pubic_assistance
grammar

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

7 hours ago, Luv2play said:

Yesterday’s events in Washington showed how uncoordinated the Administration is on the tariff issue with various officials saying different things at the same time. I call that unplanned chaos. 

 Great to keep in mind for our personal finances (which is the topic we can discuss, not politics).

I checked my portfolio yesterday.  Nothing was too out of balance to warrant rebalancing at this time.  My investments represent a cross section of the markets and are doing just fine.  Particular good for me this year:  Energy and Real Estate Investment Trusts 

[Luv2play]

I’m surprised your energy investments are doing well this year. Here in Canada they are taking a drubbing. Alberta is our big producer of oil and gas and their government is heading into big deficits. OPEC recently increased their production limits which is pushing down further the price of oil. 
 

The federal government here just took off the tax on energy on consumers and we are witnessing a huge drop in gas prices at the pump, combined with the lower price of crude. The tax came off natural gas too but the heating season is just about over. My heating bills were high this winter as we had colder than average temperatures. 

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

53 minutes ago, Luv2play said:

My heating bills were high this winter as we had colder than average temperatures. 

Preach!  My heating bill reached $70 this February, and it's never been more than $50.  We had some cold snaps in Las Vegas.  But, I'm invested for the long term.   Who knows, it might go down as energy prices drop further

[56harrisond]

9 weird recession indicators, from lipstick to snacks

By Alex Bitter, Erin Snodgrass, and Avery Hartmans

 

Mar 26, 2025, 5:59 AM ET

 

Business Insider 

 

Indicators from the stock market to household finances suggest a recession could be on the way.

But there are other less conventional — and sometimes less reliable — signs of a downturn.

From lipstick sales to cardboard boxes, here are nine weird recession indicators.

 

There are some unusual signs that could suggest we're headed into a recession. Take lipstick or diaper rashes, for instance.

 

While not as frequently cited as the bond market or household spending, some economists and executives have pointed to such informal indicators as signs that a downturn could be on the horizon.

 

Of course, nothing is certain. Some of these theories have obvious holes in them or might simply reflect a pullback in consumer spending — an ominous sign, but far from a guarantee that a recession is close.

 

Here are nine less conventional signs to watch.

 

Snack index

There's some evidence that people buy fewer snacks — and other types of food — when a recession hits. One review of studies found that the Great Recession of 2008 reduced the consumption of snacks, as well as other foods from fast food to fresh produce.

 

Today, consumers are snacking less, and it may have to do with uncertainty about the future of the economy.

 

General Mills, the company that makes Chex Mix and Nature Valley granola bars, reported last week that its third-quarter net sales fell by 5%.

 

It wasn't just human snacks that took a hit, CEO Jeff Harmening said on the company's earnings call. General Mills' sales of pet snacks were also down, he told analysts.

 

"Our view is that a lot of that has to do with consumer confidence," Harmening said.

 

Mini alcohol bottle indicator

Another theory is that shoppers cut back on alcohol purchases when they're concerned about finances and the economy. Instead of buying full bottles of booze, drinkers go for the small ones you'd find on airplanes or in hotel minibars.

 

Brown-Forman, the company behind Jack Daniels whiskey and Herradura tequila, has said that consumers are buying more small bottles lately.

 

"The reason small sizes are doing well is more because of the cyclical inflation and it's a consumer that's pinched," CEO Lawson Whiting said during an earnings call earlier this month.

 

Lipstick index

The creation of the lipstick index is widely attributed to Leonard Lauder, one of the billionaire heirs to the Estée Lauder cosmetics fortune.

 

Back in 2001, when the US economy was in the throes of a recession, Lauder noticed that lipstick sales were actually rising, not falling. Lauder's theory was that lipstick sales and the health of the economy were in inverse proportion to one another — essentially, as the economy got worse, lipstick sales got better — because consumers considered lipstick an "affordable luxury."

 

Lipstick sales at mass retailers were up 11% back when Lauder invented the index. Some of the world's biggest cosmetics brands reported a sales boost in 2008 as the US headed into a recession. And more recently, beauty sales have boomed as inflation has remained high over the past several months.

 

Still, lipstick probably isn't a reliable recession indicator — there are plenty of times when cosmetics sales have boomed during times of relative economic prosperity — and dipped during downturns.

 

Underwear index

The former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan popularized the "men's underwear index," which posits that when the economy is in decline, men will stop buying new underwear since it's a garment most people won't see on a daily basis. When the economic outlook improves, they'll start replacing their boxers or briefs again.

 

It's not foolproof, but there are instances where Greenspan's theory was correct. Men's underwear sales dipped in 2008 and 2009, during the Great Recession, and rose between 2010 and 2015, Euromonitor data found. US sales of men's underwear also dipped dramatically in 2020 amid the uncertainty of the pandemic before rebounding in 2021, Bloomberg data found.

 

Hemline index

Developed in the 1920s, the hemline index asserts that skirts and dresses get shorter when the economy is doing well and longer during a downturn.

 

While it might not be a reliable indicator, there are some recent examples.

 

The miniskirt became trendy in the 1960s when the economy was booming, but when the oil crisis hit in the 1970s, skirts got longer again, as Bloomberg reported. And in early 2022, the ultra-miniskirt, also called the micromini, was the "it" item before inflation rose and the ankle-length maxi skirt came into vogue.

 

Cardboard box indicator

The thinking goes that cardboard boxes can act as a barometer for the health of the economy since they play such a crucial role in transporting goods — not just to consumers who buy things online, but to stores and warehouses that receive those goods in bulk.

 

So, if demand for cardboard is slowing, it could mean consumers are buying less stuff.

 

This indicator may be more accurate than some of the others, as there's a direct correlation between cardboard demand and consumer purchasing. Back in early 2009, as the US was in the midst of a recession, cardboard shipments declined drastically and US cardboard manufacturers' operating rates dipped as well. A similar trend arose in early 2023: The Fibre Box Association, a trade group that represents the industry, reported that cardboard shipments had fallen 8.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the steepest decline since the financial crisis.

 

Diaper rash indicator

Diapering a baby is a costly endeavor for parents — to the tune of $500 to $900 annually — and during economic hard times, some parents may be forced to ration diapers to save money.

 

But when you change a baby's diaper less frequently, there's a higher chance the baby will develop diaper rash, leading to increased sales of ointment to treat it. Thus, lower diaper sales and higher ointment sales might serve as a clue that the economy is contracting.

 

There are examples of this indicator coming into play during periods of belt-tightening. The trend began during tough economic times in 2011, when parents cut back on buying diapers or traded down to cheaper brands at the same time that ointment sales rose 8%, The Wall Street Journal reported at the time.

 

But the index isn't airtight: Around the same time, the birth rate was declining, while diaper technology had improved so parents could more easily tell if a diaper was wet, and parents began potty training earlier in an effort to cut costs, the Journal reported.

 

The Champagne index

The Champagne index is basically the inverse of the lipstick index: When the economy is bad, people will stop buying pricey Champagne and opt for cheaper alcohol instead.

 

It's played out before. Before the 2008 recession, US sales of Champagne surpassed 23 million bottles, but by 2009, that number had dipped to 12.5 million, according to an article in UC Berkeley's Business Review.

 

The index may be tied to societal sentiment more broadly since fewer celebrations mean fewer occasions for bubbly. Indeed, Champagne sales dropped 18% by volume in 2020, CIVC, a Champagne industry trade group, reported at the time. Then, in 2021, as travel and socializing began to resume, sales of Champagne reached a record high of $5.7 billion, 14% higher than the pre-pandemic record.

 

The stripper index

Exotic dancers are often among the first group of people to warn of a coming recession, Aaliyah Kissick, the CEO of Financial Literacy Diaries and a Gen Z money expert, told BI last year. That lends credence to another predictive theory: the stripper index.

 

Kissick pointed to strippers' tips as a microcosm for elastic goods. The elasticity of a product refers to how changing prices may or may not trigger changing demand.

 

Coffee, for example, is an inelastic good. Even as prices rise, people continue to buy it because they just aren't willing to go without it. The fact that caffeine can be an addictive substance means people won't pull back on their coffee consumption even in tough economic times.

 

But whereas a typical white-collar worker isn't willing to forgo coffee during a recession, he may be more likely to ditch the after-hours entertainment or tip performers less, Kissick said.

 

The theory could be more broadly applied to any service industry worker who relies on tips, Peter C. Earle, a senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, told BI last year.

 

"As a lot of people in the food service industry have noticed lately, a decrease in restaurant tipping suggests that consumers are reducing discretionary spending — whether because of rising unemployment, the debilitating effect of inflation, or both," he said.

 

[BSR]

Another recession indicator:  furniture sales

I was at a poker table where one of the players owned a furniture store, a business started by his grandfather and where he had worked all his life (he was mid-50s).  He claimed that furniture sales were the first sign of a recession because new furniture has the most elastic demand of just about all goods.  Sure, you can put off buying a new pair of shoes for a while when times are tough, but at some point they are completely spent and you have to buy a new pair.  The same is true of cars, clothes, etc., whereas even the well-to-do can put up with their old couch at least a little bit longer.

[+ glutes]

When Fed Chairman Powell gets dismissed, all I can say is:

 

 

[jayjaycali]

On 4/11/2025 at 4:42 AM, 56harrisond said:

The stripper index

Exotic dancers are often among the first group of people to warn of a coming recession

I love this "stripper index".  

I hope we get to see a "bullish spread" 😄 and consider taking a long position in the stripper's index. Maybe even put a collar on it.  

 

Edited April 18 by jayjaycali

[+ sniper]

There's also the "hot waitress" index. Theory being as other sales jobs decline, more attractive women turn to waiting tables and restaurants, all things being equal, want more attractive servers, and with employment low, they can be choosy.

[Luv2play]

The spike in the price of gold yesterday is a portent of worse to come. If serious attempts are made to remove Powell from the Fed, then we ain’t seen nothing yet. 

[pubic_assistance]

7 hours ago, Luv2play said:

If serious attempts are made to remove Powell from the Fed, then we ain’t seen nothing yet. 

I would be thrilled to see Powell gone. The resistance to lower interest rates  even while the real estate industry buckles under the weight of crushing five year adjustables is beyond cruel.

His claim that rates are high to battle inflation is so overly simplistic it's insulting. Everyone knows that current inflation was caused by printing more money, not an over heated economy.

[+ FrankR]

Yesterday we got some insight into how the economy is doing and I spent about an hour on FRED doing some soul searching. It does not look good. Solid results from Tech companies have taken the edge off, but consensus is that we are looking at a recession in Q3 and likely a bear market too. Time to batten down the hatches and prepare to hunker down. 

[Beancounter]