Inflation continues to fall

[Boaxxx]

5 hours ago, FrankR said:

Not sure what you meant to say here… ⬆️

We are going into Q1 earnings season where large corporations announce earnings and profits for the 1st quarter of the year. Dont be surprised by record profits - they are using “inflation” as an excuse to raise prices to deliver larger profits. Take that into account - I like to believe I am a realist too, and as realists, we aim to see the entire picture. 

Not sure what you meant to say here… ⬆️

All I'm saying is that in my personal economic life I am seeing a continued increase in prices and while government statistics and indexes are saying otherwise, things do not appear to be getting much better.

As far as corporate profits and record earnings go, I hope that bolsters the stock market because I can appreciate the gains I will make.

Here are a few examples of recent, over the past year to year and a half, price increases.

- Walmart Great Value canned green beans - from $0.50 to $0.70

- Walmart Great Value sliced cheddar cheese - from $1.99 to 2.46

Hulu Live - from $65 per month to $76 per month

Xfinity internet - from $99 per month to $115

Xfinity cell phone data service - from $15 per month to $20 per month.

I could go on but it is not necessary. This my reality. Just sayin'.

Edited April 9 by Boaxxx

[MikePDNA51]

12 hours ago, Boaxxx said:

There can be all kinds of indexes, studies, charts, graphs, etc. but the real data is the day to day costs for the average American. I live in California and everything is going up.

- Bridge tools

- Express lane tolls

- Pacific Gas and Electric rates

- Gasoline (approaching record high levels again)

- Water

- Insurance

- Groceries

- Eating out - from burritos at the local taqueria to McDonalds to takeout pizza to coffee to soft serve ice.

Prices are out of control and companies are engaged in shrink-flation (charging the same price but decreasing the amount of product).  I now buy almost exclusively from Walmart and other discount retailers while I stock money away for retirement in a few years.

I'm not trying to be an almost, just a realist.

I agree cost are going up. Companies are just trying to get more like they always do. 

[+ augustus]

Just read on Bloomberg News that the government does not include home insurances costs in the CPI numbers, and a lot of other things too.  Taking into account the rise in home insurance rates would have added, by itself, 0.8 % to 2023's inflation rate.  

[+ BOZO T CLOWN]

ECONOMY

Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected

Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected

WWW.CNBC.COM

---

The consumer price index in March was expected to increase 3.4% from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

"The consumer price index accelerated at a faster than expected pace in March, pushing inflation higher and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with interest rates.

The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%."

 

Anyone that has to go to the store and buy food or has to fill the car with gas knows inflation never went away.

 

i heard a great line:
Q. What is the most expensive vehicle to operate in the US today?
A. A grocery cart.

 

BTC

 

[Jim_n_NYC]

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% over the previous month and 3.5% over the prior year in March, an acceleration from February's 3.2% annual gain in prices. The data matched February's month-over-month increase.

Both measures came in ahead of economist forecasts of a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.4% annual increase, according to data from Bloomberg."

So, 0.1% higher on both the previous month forecast and the annual forecast.  When I went to pull up the report I thought I was going to see inflation back in the 4% to 5% range.  I guess overreaction is the name of the game.

[EZEtoGRU]

The latest inflation report is not a huge deal. Look…inflation is way down from where it was. The final push to get it to target levels will be a slog. As long as oil stays high, it will be slow-going. 

[+ augustus]

4 hours ago, BOZO T CLOWN said:

I heard a great line:
Q. What is the most expensive vehicle to operate in the US today?
A. A grocery cart.

 

Absolutely correct!  It would be interesting to know what the actual inflation rate is, versus the official, heavily massaged and manipulated rate is.   The average middle class family does not need statistics spewed from the "talking heads and experts".  They just need to look at their grocery bill, their utility bills, their fuel costs, there insurance costs, and their checking account balance.

[+ augustus]

42 minutes ago, Jim_n_NYC said:

I guess overreaction is the name of the game.

Transitory...........for 3 years. 

[+ augustus]

I wanna show you this magic trick. watch closely, 

when I bought this large box of soap, the price had just gone up 50 cents, from $10 to $10.50

5% inflation, right?

I’m now going to put a black cloth over the top of the box…….mmm, hocus pocus, lose your focus.

with a wave of my hand, I’m going to raise the price by 50 cents again. it will now cost $11

then presto, I snap awayyyy the black cloth…….and……the rate of inflation is now 4.75% !!!

do the arithmetic yourself……it’s kind of a sleazy parlor trick, but it will amaze your friends.

the magic ‘falling rate of inflation’ illusion…….what made it do that? ( hint : compounding ) every month I add 50 cents to the price, and the rate of inflation falls even further….wow.

$10.00 + 0.50 = $10.50, rate of inflation = 5.00%

$10.50 + 0.50 = $11.00. rate of inflation = 4.75%

$11.00 + 0.50 = $11.50, rate of inflation = 4.55%

$11.50 + 0.50 = $12.00. rate of inflation = 4.28%

the red herring here is that steadily rising prices appear as falling inflation.  You know...TRANSITORY.

Anyone can see we have had massive inflation and a steadily dropping standard of living the past 3 years and no end in sight!

[+ BOZO T CLOWN]

On 4/10/2024 at 11:47 AM, EZEtoGRU said:

The latest inflation report is not a huge deal. .

Not a huge deal?  lmfao!

Stock market today: Dow plunges 470 points as US stocks tumble on hot inflation report

• US stocks tumbled on Wednesday as traders took in hotter-than-expected inflation.
• Consumer prices rose 3.8% year-per-year in March, higher than what economists had expected.
• The odds of a June Fed rate cut have been completely wiped off of the table, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Stock market today: Dow plunges 470 points as US stocks tumble on hot inflation report

MARKETS.BUSINESSINSIDER.COM

---

The odds of a June Fed rate cut have been completely wiped off of the table, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Not a huge deal?

Try telling that to the consumers who have to dig further in to their pockets to pay for their essentials.
This inflation report is a disaster for the middle class, lower middle class, working poor, single mothers, etc.

Try telling that to investors, traders, and anyone with a retirement account. What is not a huge deal to you has cost the economy tens of billions.!!
But it's "not a huge deal"? Right?

i went to Panera Bread for the 1st time yesterday. 1/2 sandwich, urine cup size strawberry banana smoothie, (only size offered) and a child sized bag of chips. (1 Oz.?) just shy of $17.

It was absolutely delicious. Too, good - which made me suspect the ingredients - seed oils, MSG, corn syrup, sugar, maltitol, etc., as applicable…

Also, recently… mechanic: $1200, veterinarian: $1100, Dentist: $2900… you get the idea…

But it's not a huge deal....

3.5% increase in inflation over the last twelve months hardly describes the situation when this 12 month period began with record high inflation over the 12 months previous to that.

BTC

[BSR]

7 hours ago, BOZO T CLOWN said:

ECONOMY

Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected

Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected

WWW.CNBC.COM

---

The consumer price index in March was expected to increase 3.4% from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

"The consumer price index accelerated at a faster than expected pace in March, pushing inflation higher and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with interest rates.

The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%."

 

Anyone that has to go to the store and buy food or has to fill the car with gas knows inflation never went away.

 

Bozo heard a great line:
Q. What is the most expensive vehicle to operate in the US today?
A. A grocery cart.

 

BTC

 

Love the grocery cart joke 😆 

Everyone assumed that the Fed would drop its rate this year, but I grow more doubtful by the day.

If you look at rates over the past 50 years, today's rate isn't particularly high.  Is another 0.25% increase or two all that outrageous a proposition?  Inflation has been way too high for way too long.  We need it to drop below 2%.  I'd like to see it below 1%, but that's way too wishful thinking.

[samhexum]

[pubic_assistance]

On 4/10/2024 at 12:19 PM, augustus said:

Anyone can see we have had massive inflation and a steadily dropping standard of living the past 3 years and no end in sight!

Well...sorry to disagree with the "anyone" statement here.

But...THANK YOU for the "magic trick" explanation. THAT might help bring a few more people into the "anyone can" category.

MANY people are completely CLUELESS about how inflation reports work. This fact is used to manipulate perception and its actually the MAJORITY of people who are being fooled. "Inflation slowing" to MANY people means that inflation was a temporary increase that goes away when inflation slows down. SO your example of the compounding of inflation effect was truly helpful to the members here ( and yes some of you don't get it) who are insistent that inflation slowing down is better news than it really is.

Inflation slowing down is frightening to me, since it SHOULD have STOPPED by this point. But the Federal Reserve keeps printing money so the corrections keep coming.

As @BOZO T CLOWNnoted, the COSTS have gone up SIGNIFICANTLY and THAT is what you need to look at not indexes. Especially when you're retired with few increases in your income. Reports of "robust economy" is becoming a float-to-the-top effect that doesn't help 90% of the population of this country.

 

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

Should this thread be retitled "High Inflation Continues"?

[KeepItReal]

10 minutes ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

Should this thread be retitled "High Inflation Continues"?

Or perhaps "Higher Inflation and Wages Continue".  For perspective. Some will always focus on the negative and ignore the positive.

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

2 hours ago, KeepItReal said:

Or perhaps "Higher Inflation and Wages Continue".  For perspective. Some will always focus on the negative and ignore the positive.

That title would have worked 2016-2021, when wages were rising faster than inflation; however, not so much for the past 3 years.  Although, 2024 is looking to be a bright spot and the trend may finally reverse.  But, at current wage growth rates it may take a decade of wage growth to bring the wages back up to 2020 purchasing power.  But there's hope... Wage growth rates may increase come next year.

[+ augustus]

The latest economic reports of April 25, 2024 show GDP decreasing and inflation accelerating!  Stagflation is returning, like I've been saying for a year.  

[+ augustus]

And as I've been saying for months, the official numbers understate the real rate of inflation:

 

The 'supercore' inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands (msn.com)

 

[BSR]

4 hours ago, augustus said:

The latest economic reports of April 25, 2024 show GDP decreasing and inflation accelerating!  Stagflation is returning, like I've been saying for a year.  

The Fed needs to raise the prime lending rate, imo, two 25 bp increases in the next 3-4 months because the Fed rate is still low relative to historical highs and because inflation is stubborn as hell.

But will Jerome Powell actually do it?  The cynic in me says no.  I've even heard rumors that the Fed will lower the rate a couple of times this year.  Whether those are leaks from insiders or just wishful thinking, time will tell.

[Welshman]

Here in the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister came to office after the disaster of the Liz Truss mini budget (that saw Uk gilts increase from a 3.1% yield to a 5.1% yield in less than 24 hours) and as one of his priorities he announced that he would halve inflation within a year of coming to office.

UK inflation was 11.1% in October 2022, therefore to meet his target inflation needed to be 5.6% or lower by October 2023. That month's inflation figure was 4.6%, more than meeting that requirement, however most people in the UK do not believe it was due to the Prime Minister coming to office.

[Kevin Slater]

On 4/26/2024 at 2:05 AM, augustus said:

The latest economic reports of April 25, 2024 show GDP decreasing and inflation accelerating!  Stagflation is returning, like I've been saying for a year.  

No, the reports showed GDP growth decreasing.  GDP is still increasing, albeit at a slower rate.

Kevin Slater 

[Thelatin]

Over the past 2 years the average cost of groceries is up 20%, gas 22%, new cars 19%, utilities 20%, rent 20%.  I've never really paid that much attention to prices, just swipe the debt card and go.  But I find myself pausing...going, huh?

[+ augustus]

On 5/4/2024 at 10:24 AM, Thelatin said:

Over the past 2 years the average cost of groceries is up 20%, gas 22%, new cars 19%, utilities 20%, rent 20%.  I've never really paid that much attention to prices, just swipe the debt card and go.  But I find myself pausing...going, huh?

......and car insurance, home insurance, car repairs, home repairs and much more.  

[+ augustus]

It is astonishing how people believe the propaganda that inflation is the result of the greedy farmers and the greedy businessmen and supply side disruptions and whatever crap is told them.  Inflation is caused by excess money printing to finance large government deficits and it continues unabated to this day.  

[+ augustus]

On 4/26/2024 at 6:20 AM, BSR said:

The Fed needs to raise the prime lending rate, imo, two 25 bp increases in the next 3-4 months because the Fed rate is still low relative to historical highs and because inflation is stubborn as hell.

It is the fiscal side, the unruly spending, subsidize everything that is counterbalancing tighter money.  Powell needs to open his mouth and say so.  The politicians couldn't care less because they just blame Wall Street and greedy businessmen, etc.   And the dopey population believes it.