Here we go again

[+ Pensant]

There’s been a spike in COVID-19 cases in WA State, which had been doing a great job in containing the virus. Gov. Inslee has mandated a thirty-day restrictive period beginning tomorrow. I noticed that the local grocery store was stripped of toilet paper and paper towels yesterday. Thank God I’ve built up a decent supply over the summer.

 

Any similar occurrences happening elsewhere?

[+ Pensant]

What a dystopia.

[+ Charlie]

The Coachella Valley (location of Palm Springs) is being described in the news as a new hotspot, with a 383% increase in hospitalizations during the past month. People are starting to report paper product shortages in the stores again.

[rvwnsd]

I noticed Safeway and Fry's were out of paper products. have to make a target run, so we'll see if I can get some paper towels and TP. I still have two full packs of each, but since folks appear to be hoarding again, I guess I'll buy a couple more packs of each.

 

Am I the only one who remembers a 4-pack of TP and 3-pack of paper towels being the "large economy pack?"

[+ WilliamM]

Philadelphia is closing all museum (Philadelphia Museum of Art, and the Barnes Museum) until January 1. Also all indoor dinning

[jeezifonly]

Ventura and Orange Counties in SoCal have been moved into the most at risk tier which may be a first since mid summer.

The density in LA Co has kept it there for a while, and if numbers don’t shift into a positive direction pretty quick we will probably regress to full lockdown again.

 

Selfish and Ignorant myfreedom-obsessed assholes have dropped another turd into the Holiday Punchbowl. Thanks, Murrica.

[Guest]

I wear a mask...but if masks are so effective, why is this happening?

 

There is some data (I’ve not verified) indicating the spikes are worse is areas with mask mandates than in those without.

But, anecdotally, I hear that rural areas without mask mandates are faring worse than urban areas with mask mandates.

But despite all the static, the number of cases is surging (although fortunately, rates of deaths aren’t at earlier levels)

 

is it better access to testing (making for the surge in cases) coupled with colder weather?

[JayCeeKy]

There is some data (I’ve not verified) indicating the spikes are worse is areas with mask mandates than in those without.

As you well know, correlation does not mean causation. There is likely a third (unknown) variable (e.g. population density) which is causing the effect. From a logical standpoint, how in the world would "mask mandates" even remotely cause a spike in virus spread?

[nomad]

Ventura and Orange Counties in SoCal have been moved into the most at risk tier which may be a first since mid summer.

The density in LA Co has kept it there for a while, and if numbers don’t shift into a positive direction pretty quick we will probably regress to full lockdown again.

 

Selfish and Ignorant myfreedom-obsessed assholes have dropped another turd into the Holiday Punchbowl. Thanks, Murrica.

Large sections of the country don't even bother to pretend to take any preventive safety precautions. Basically, everything between the two coasts. And they wonder why sparsely populated states like N/S Dakota and Wyoming are topping the charts for highest rate of new cases. People keep telling themselves they live far apart from one another in their wide open spaces and don't interact with a lot of people so what is there to worry about. What's a harmless drink in a bar with friends right?

 

Even in California, there are lots of pockets where people are not wearing masks. I've seen it in San Diego, Irvine, LA, SF, etc.

 

I drove thru Berkeley the other day and was surprised at how few of the homeless camped all around the highway ramps had masks. I know for a fact the organizations that help them give them masks. Good size groups standing and sitting around closely together like it was just any day in any normal year. I wonder if people's aversion to getting close to the homeless may be helping them from getting infected and it spreading like a wild fire.

[Guest]

As you well know, correlation does not mean causation. There is likely a third (unknown) variable (e.g. population density) which is causing the effect. From a logical standpoint, how in the world would "mask mandates" even remotely cause a spike in virus spread?

Intuitively, I agree. The problem is knowing what those additional variables are. Unfortunately, I believe that when the data goes through political filters, our insight is opaque at best. But the fact remains, cases are skyrocketing despite the wide scale use of masks.

[+ Charlie]

But when are the people wearing the masks? The reports are that it is private gatherings, such as family get-togethers, rather than public places that are spreading the virus now, and how likely is it that people are wearing masks in their homes?

[mike carey]

Intuitively, I agree. The problem is knowing what those additional variables are. Unfortunately, I believe that when the data goes through political filters, our insight is opaque at best. But the fact remains, cases are skyrocketing despite the wide scale use of masks.

It's a multi-variable problem. Mask wearing doesn't prevent transmission of the virus, but it reduces it. So do other measures such as so-called social distancing, hand sanitation and so on. We just don't know how much each contributes. Testing, tracing and isolation takes likely cases out of circulation and leaves more space for the other preventive measures to have an effect. None of the individual measures is a silver bullet, but the fact that transmission is still happening despite mask wearing is not evidence that there is no value in wearing them. One thing to consider when mask wearing is widespread is whether it is happening in the settings where it matters most. If testing and tracing isn't happening enough, people may well wear masks in public but not in 'trusted' settings, like family gatherings, when the trust isn't in fact warranted. The state of Victoria had over 700 cases a day (low by US standards, but off the charts for them), and over several weeks of curfews, limits to travel, limits to gathering sizes, closure of restaurants, cafes and bars to everything but take-away, and mask mandates it was cut down, and yesterday was the 18th day of zero cases. It's not the US, attitudes are different, compliance was generally good, and the scale of the problem was less than US states face, but it did work.

[+ StLouisOct]

Groceries stores in my area learned the lesson from last time and have put limits on the amount of TP, wipes and disinfectant you can purchase.