A reminder why we can't risk exposure to Covid 19

[+ WilliamM]

Interesting response from someone who lives in a country with a high drug addiction rate. Or RECURRING Annual deaths from substance several times what we are globally Experiencing with the covid event.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/substances-risk-factor-vs-direct-deaths?country=~CAN

 

And BTW, it’s AmeriCa...and it belongs to Americans...not trump.

Speaking of rabbit holes.

[Guest]

Speaking of rabbit holes.

...but yet you choose not to call him out...wouldn’t want to do anything to ruin your chances of being voted Mr. Congeniality, right buddy?

[Guest]

In fact, I was commenting on your constant use of the term "rabbit holes."

Yes, there are a lot of opportunities to use that term with some participants here. But, in fact, I was commenting on you making the observation in response to my post rather than that of the poster to whom I was responding.

[mike carey]

I would think the “extra death count” over the most recent years would be an excellent way to figure out the Coronavirus death count.

You're right, and there is some value in counting the number of people who died because of the epidemic regardless of whether it was this particular virus that killed them. For some, Covid-19's brute force assault on their body is what kills them, for others it's the straw that breaks the camel's back. Even now, the Kansas Flu in 1918-19 is reported as having killed 50-100m people, we may have a narrower range this time around, but there will be a range. (One consideration in all the talk of unintended deaths brought about in part by the restrictions is that there could well be an unintended fall in the number of seasonal flu deaths, and possibly of road traffic and particulate pollution-related respiratory disease deaths.)

Edited May 30, 2020 by mike carey

[+ sniper]

Strangely road deaths haven't gone down much. To the extent that fatal car accidents tend to involve at least one person with bad risk-avoidance skills, this might not be surprising.

[+ bigjoey]

Interesting article about the virus. Much of the medical view has been that Covid19 is a disease primarily of the lungs. Still, there were cases that did not fit that exactly. Now another view: instead of a lung infection, this virus has its main target our blood vessels

 

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

 

I would like doctors who are here like @purplekow to comment. Especially since @purplekow has so much first hand experience.

 

How does this view alter medical therapies for those who are infected?

[Rudynate]

That was the work of the US government, the world's largest terrorist org. Not even comparable. But regardless 911 or the Chinese flu the governement is over reaching and trampling on our rights. But keep yourself locked in your house, i don't really give a fuck.

Not dying is not the same as recovering. How many people with lifelong debilitating medical issues is acceptable to you?

Steroids, which clearly he was using, impact immune response. How awful, I'm glad he's recovering now.

 

 

At least some anabolic steroids enhance the immune response. But a healthy immune response, at least initially, isn't much good against a pathogen it has never encountered.m

[Rod Hagen]

At least some anabolic steroids enhance the immune response. But a healthy immune response, at least initially, isn't much good against a pathogen it has never encountered.m

 

You misunderstand me, I think. Steroids can inhibit the immune response. Clearly, he obtained his body, in part, due to steroid use. And so, I was only hoping to moderate our shock at his before and after pictures.

[Rudynate]

You misunderstand me, I think. Steroids can inhibit the immune response. Clearly, he obtained his body, in part, due to steroid use. And so, I was only hoping to moderate our shock at his before and after pictures.

 

All men with impressive muscles haven't used steroids to achieve them.

[+ sniper]

All men with impressive muscles haven't used steroids to achieve them.

No, but most 40somethings who are not actually competitive athletes and look like that are taking something. There's a reason all these "anti-aging clinics" are advertising on the radio nonstop.

His saying he would do it "healthier next time" I took as an implicit acknowledgement of steroids.

[+ purplekow]

You’re going down a rabbit hole my friend. I respect that you are at ground zero. I respect and appreciate what you are doing and the compassion you show in doing it. But again, we do not have the capacity as a society to eliminate risk to the lowest common denominator. In Troy, they left the infirm and deformed out to die. We care for the sick and infirm. But despite all that we have, we have limitations...we learned in pre school... all the kings horses and all the kings men can’t put humpty together again.

We are not trying to eliminate risk. We are trying to limit risk. One way or the other the economy will open up. It is a matter of how much risk we as a society are willing to take in doing so.

And perhaps if all the king's horses and all the king's men had set up a safety net for Humpty and other ova at risk, the troops and the king would not have egg all over their face and Humpty would be enjoying a vacation with the entire Dumpty clan on Easter Egg Island..

[+ stevenkesslar]

Florida is reopening and so far, things seem to be going well:

 

What our offices and work behavior will look like.

Note that despite the physical changes, much will come down to personal behavioral compliance with the suggested new norms.

 

I guess you need to define "well". Does "well" mean being the global leader in allowing COVID-19 to be a death machine for seniors? To infect 20,000 or so Americans a day, of which at least 1000 or so - mostly seniors - will die on daily base?

 

China, which is now #18 on the list of countries with the most cumulative cases, reports 3 new cases and no new deaths yesterday. Is Florida, or the US, doing "well" compared to them?

 

Germany, # 9 on the list with 90 % fewer cumulative cases, reported 491 new cases and 27 deaths yesterday. They are about one quarter the size of the US. Is Florida, which had over double the number of new cases and deaths as Germany yesterday, doing "well" compared to that?

 

Perhaps, as you said, some part of this has to do with "the American personality". But if it does, I imagine the American personality has got to be wondering how she managed to fuck this up so badly.

 

There were five states with over 1000 new COVID-19 cases yesterday. In order: 1) California: 2331, 2) North Carolina: 1423, 3) Florida: 1270, 4) Texas 1137, 5) Arizona: 1119. That's a good reflection of where COVID-19 is lurking the most right now. Not the most New England states that had a wall of infection and death this Spring. Will COVID-19 make a comeback? I hope not. But if it does, the states I just named will be where it already has a really good foothold to build on. And perhaps a slightly more complacent public, who didn't directly experience what people in New York or New Jersey did. What part of this suggests Florida is doing "well"? Or California? or Texas?

 

This matters in terms of nursing home deaths. Because at this point some capable quant person could come up with a formula for how many dead seniors we'll have a month from now. Just tell me how many new cases - like 20,000 a day - and COVID-19 will do the rest. 1000 or so of those people will be dead relatively soon. Mostly, they'll be seniors. The states that do the best job keeping the virus out will actually have the most seniors deaths, as a percentage of all deaths in the state. Because what COVID-19 is very good at, even when it is being actively suppressed, is finding Granny in a nursing home, infecting her, and killing her.

 

You can talk all you want about "best practices". But it has little or no impact on the math and science. Tell me there's 20,000 new cases, and I can assure you we will have lots of dead Grannies. Figure out how to gradually double that to 40,000 cases, and we'll have twice as many dead Grannies, lung for lung.

 

This is not good news for Florida, or nursing homes. This is not going well.

 

There is now a chorus of people with one dimensional views that suggest that 1000 or so dead Grannies is not that bad for the economy. Or at least a less bad alternative. So whenever I mention dead Grannies I will also remind people of this. COVID-19 kills the economy by killing people. Those two things - the virus and the economy - can't be separated. If we want to stop the virus from killing the economy, we have to stop the virus from killing Granny. It's not two separate and conflicting goals. It is the same, unified goal.

 

Now that the government lock downs are ending, we're getting a clearer picture of how the market lock downs are continuing.

 

Ask almost any question about any vital economic activity, and the vast majority of Americans are uncomfortable doing it:

 

Go out to eat at a restaurant? 64 percent feel uncomfortable.

Go to a shopping mall? 68 percent feel uncomfotable.

Go to an amusement park? 74 percent feel uncomfortable.

 

That last number might not be all bad news. Germany has banned these types of mass events through the end of Summer. Mass gatherings are potentially good virus peti dishes. And we know for a fact they will lead in a chain of infection and death back to nursing homes. That said, if anybody is going to get this right and set a good set of standards, it's places like Disney World.

 

The overall picture, though, is devastating. It is devastating for Granny, and devastating for the economy. In the real, multi-dimensional world human beings actually live in, killing Granny and killing the economy are kind of the same thing. Whether 2 in 3 Americans are worried about Granny or themselves or their kids or all of the above is impossible to say. But this kind of fear of a virus is fatal to a consumer economy. And the virus itself is fatal to Granny. To deal with the fear, you have to stop the virus from killing Granny.

 

It's too early to tell whether Germany's far more effective approach will mean less national economic damage. There are far fewer dead German Grannies. And it sounds like their economy is relatively more open, with far fewer infections. If the US was at the same place as Germany, relative to population, we'd have 2000 new cases a day. Not 20,000. My guess is the difference has an economic impact. As well as being good news for the virus, whose job is to infect and kill Granny.

 

All of this assumes that we'll actually be able to keep the virus at 20,000 new cases a day. I quoted that piece @bigjoey posted on offices because I think the most significant thing keeping the spread of the virus in control is simple: human behavior, and compliance to a new set of rules we all just learned the hard way. And corporations like Apple have no interest in killing their employees. Or killing Granny, for that matter. So they will do their best. But if the casesload nudges back up to 30,000 and 40,000, and the deaths go from 1000 a day back to 2000 a day, I don't see how that helps either Granny or the US economy.

 

The good news is that it means 13 % unemployment rather than 20 % unemployment. But how exactly is 13 % unemployment and consumers that are afraid to shop or eat out good news?

 

I would not say Florida, or the US, are doing well. I would say we are sitting on a powder keg. And we should be aware that it is ripe to explode again. That's very bad news for Granny.

Edited June 6, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[+ bigjoey]

We are not trying to eliminate risk. We are trying to limit risk. One way or the other the economy will open up. It is a matter of how much risk we as a society are willing to take in doing so.

And perhaps if all the king's horses and all the king's men had set up a safety net for Humpty and other ova at risk, the troops and the king would not have egg all over their face and Humpty would be enjoying a vacation with the entire Dumpty clan on Easter Egg Island..

 

Well put: we can not eliminate risk but just minimize it. There are no Americans who have a zero risk of dying in the next 24 hours of some cause. Personal choices can lower or increase risk. People can choose to smoke, drive under the influence of drugs or alcohol, eat junk food and not exercise and become obese, not maintain physical distancing, not washing their hands and then touching their faces. People can choose to do all the “best practices” to maintain good health. These behaviors can change the risk of dying but not eliminate it.

 

 

The good fairy is not going to lower our risk of dying in this pandemic. The government can help with things like test, trace and isolate or by financing medical research or by making sure proper supplies are available. But in the final analysis, we need to modify our behaviors.

Edited June 7, 2020 by bigjoey

[+ WilliamM]

Even as Pennsylvania is starting to open up I am postponing getting a haircut until sure the mom and pop hair salons know what they are doing.

 

While I am very sorry the salons have closed for a long time and money is tight, I can wear a hat a while longer.

[+ WilliamM]

Even as Pennsylvania is starting to open up I am postponing getting a haircut until sure the mom and pop hair salons know what they are doing.

 

While I am very sorry the salons have closed for a long time and money is tight, I can wear a hat a while longer.

[TruthBTold]

Chicago finally was going to the next phase and allowing salons to open up (with the usual restrictions involved surrounding being in close proximity with other people). So, the day finally came for me to finally be freed from my "Sonny Bono" look and at 8:00 a.m. the guy who cuts my hair calls me and lets me know that because of the BLM "riots" he could not make it downtown driving nor could he take public transport which had closed down. I had to laugh. Life goes on.

Also, Lallapalooza was permanently postposed until perhaps next year. The City will lose lots of money. Unfortunately, there is no telling where it is going to get it. It was barely holding on before COVID and the police riots happened.

[+ keroscenefire]

And even people who don't need to be hospitalized say that the illness was a mofo, something they never want to go through again.

I had it in late March/early April (recently got a COVID antibody test confirming the illness). It was the worst I've ever felt. Two weeks straight of high fever, body aches, chills, uncontrollable coughing, shortness of breath so bad it felt like I had like a 200lb man sitting on my chest at all times. Fortunately I had an oximeter and my doctor available via phone reassuring me that I didn't need to go to the hospital unless my O2 readings went below 80 percent, which fortunately they never did (although they got to low 80s quite often).

 

That's the other economic reality of this disease. Anyone who gets it is going to have to stay home from work for probably 2-3 weeks at least just for a typical course and obviously it could be much longer if they have to go to the hospital.

 

I wouldn't wish COVID-19 on my worst enemy.