A reminder why we can't risk exposure to Covid 19

[+ bigjoey]

Interesting piece comparing the statistics and reopening in Florida and Tennessee and what they did right. While much media attention is focused on Cuomo and New York, a look should be seen at alternative actions taken by DeSantis and Florida.

 

Florida is reopening and so far, things seem to be going well:

 

https://www.city-journal.org/florida-evidence-based-reopening-working

[+ WilliamM]

Interesting piece comparing the statistics and reopening in Florida and Tennessee and what they did right. While much media attention is focused on Cuomo and New York, a look should be seen at alternative actions taken by DeSantis and Florida.

 

Florida is reopening and so far, things seem to be going well:

 

https://www.city-journal.org/florida-evidence-based-reopening-working

Another feel good story. New York City is an international destination, Miami isn't quite in the same league. Now that South America is sadly an epicenter of novel coronavirus, things may change a little.

Edited May 29, 2020 by WilliamM

[+ sniper]

Interesting piece comparing the statistics and reopening in Florida and Tennessee and what they did right. While much media attention is focused on Cuomo and New York, a look should be seen at alternative actions taken by DeSantis and Florida.

 

Florida is reopening and so far, things seem to be going well:

 

https://www.city-journal.org/florida-evidence-based-reopening-working

Florida is actively tampering with the data. Local health departments are saying the state numbers don't match up with theirs. Their deaths from pneumonia are up sharply. They were starting from a lower infection rate so it will take some time to see, but in 4-6 weeks I expect it will be clear they aren't doing well.

[+ WilliamM]

Ok, since my statement is scientifically baseless and ignorant, prove me wrong with your science based wisdom. No assertions, no hypotheses...just conclusions of undisputed fact.

 

You see sir, you can’t say my statement “ignorant” right after after saying medical science is learning new things every day and that they don’t know this or that yet...what you’ve just said is that “medical science, while inquisitive, is ignorant”

 

But if I’m wrong, prove me wrong with fact based science that doesn’t simply make the opposite unproven assertion followed by “you’re ignorant” if you don’t believe the gospel of assertions by @RealAvalon. By comparison, your polite Canadian neighbors must think your style of debate is awfully rude....

 

Doctor Fauci has said the same things over and over. For example, the consequences of novel coronavirus are often more severe than expected.

[+ sniper]

And over 99% will not die and will recover.

 

There are things between dying and full recovery. What if 15% of the population were to suffer a permanent 40% drop in lung capacity? We have no idea what the long-term effects on the recovered are.

[RealAvalon]

This may help explain Canada's high rate of nursing home deaths in some provinces:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

 

Canada's curve looks a lot like California. The good news is there is less death. The bad news is that the number of new cases seems stickier. It's going down, but not as quickly as in many countries.

 

Here's what one newspaper said:

 

 

Look at this map of where Canada's COVID-19 infections are concentrated. Almost all the community infections are in two provinces, where most nursing home deaths are.

 

I get why a genius "quant" from JP Morgan thinks that if 81 % of the deaths are concentrated in 1 % of the economy - nursing homes - you just wall off nursing homes. I'd guess that "quant" does not have a Mom in a nursing home. Let an asymptomatic college student hand out plates at dinner and she can efficiently kill 50 seniors. She has no temperature. She won't test positive until it's too late. Gloves will prevent this, in theory. In practice, this magic wall always fails. Everywhere.

 

Until we track down asymptomatics who are seeding new cycles of infections, the death machine in nursing homes will continue. Canada is one more example of how community spread in each province determines the eventual number of nursing home deaths. There's a direct relationship between younger people who get infected and older people who die.

In BC that have been a few different actions around nursing homes, which Ontario didn't do.

 

1. provincial regulations were passed for 'one site employment.' The spread in nursing homes was identified, early on, as resulting from staff moving from facility to facility. Nursing home jobs are often casual low-paying jobs (in the privately owned homes in particular). The province passed regulations that an employee can work only at one facility, not multiple facilities, one result was that more jobs were regularized into full-time positions. There was also a wage subsidy created to raise everyone's wages to the lowest unionized wage in the sector.

 

2. PPE was provided by the province to all senior facilities whether they were public facilities or private facilities

 

3. Family members haven't been able to visit grannie in the home since March. This has been the source of the greatest public outcry so far, in emotional terms. One daughter took the regulation to court and the result was that the daughter was able to move into the home, and not leave, so that she could assist with the care for her mom with dementia.

[RealAvalon]

i said “flattening the curve by definition prolongs the event”

Yes, it does. The 'event' is human life.

Edited May 29, 2020 by RealAvalon

[+ bigjoey]

Florida is actively tampering with the data. Local health departments are saying the state numbers don't match up with theirs. Their deaths from pneumonia are up sharply. They were starting from a lower infection rate so it will take some time to see, but in 4-6 weeks I expect it will be clear they aren't doing well.

 

As I have written many times, we will have to wait for the pandemic to be over to know the full story. I have not seen exactly how they are allegedly manipulating the data. I assume the stories will eventually come out.

 

Part of the problem of recording deaths as Covid19 deaths is there is no uniform standard at this moment. I am not sure how historians are ever going to get an accurate count but instead may give a range. For example, is the death a Covid19 death based on a test of the body? Was it doctor’s opinion? Was the virus one of several possibilities and only a contributing factor?

[RealAvalon]

As I have written many times, we will have to wait for the pandemic to be over to know the full story. I have not seen exactly how they are allegedly manipulating the data. I assume the stories will eventually come out.

 

Part of the problem of recording deaths as Covid19 deaths is there is no uniform standard at this moment. I am not sure how historians are ever going to get an accurate count but instead may give a range. For example, is the death a Covid19 death based on a test of the body? Was it doctor’s opinion? Was the virus one of several possibilities and only a contributing factor?

Given the non-standardize way of recording COVID deaths, I expect the go to will be the large jump in the overall death rate that has been seen month to month from 2019 to 2020. This would be a maximum estimate rather than a minimum estimate. Which would be unusual, as social scientists typically rely on minimum estimates to be on the safe side of analysis (e.g. homeless number estimates).

[+ bigjoey]

Another feel good story. New York City is an international destination, Miami isn't quite in the same league. Now that South America is sadly an epicenter of novel coronavirus, things may change a little.

Yes, it is a “feel good” story. We should celebrate when people do things right that save lives.

 

As the story notes, hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers fled to Florida, so while not an international destination to the degree of New York, Florida is an destination within the US. Those New Yorkers seem to have brought the infection with them.

 

While South America is sadly a new virus hot spot, I hope we are now smart enough to halt visitors from South America and Central America.

[+ bigjoey]

Given the non-standardize way of recording COVID deaths, I expect the go to will be the large jump in the overall death rate that has been seen month to month from 2019 to 2020. This would be a maximum estimate rather than a minimum estimate. Which would be unusual, as social scientists typically rely on minimum estimates to be on the safe side of analysis (e.g. homeless number estimates).

 

I would think the “extra death count” over the most recent years would be an excellent way to figure out the Coronavirus death count.

[+ WilliamM]

Yes, it is a “feel good” story. We should celebrate when people do things right that save lives.

 

As the story notes, hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers fled to Florida, so while not an international destination to the degree of New York, Florida is an destination within the US. Those New Yorkers seem to have brought the infection with them.

 

While South America is sadly a new virus hot spot, I hope we are now smart enough to halt visitors from South America and Central America.

 

Post a feel good story about places that really need it, please.

Edited May 29, 2020 by WilliamM

[+ bigjoey]

Post a feel good story about places that really need it, please.

 

The feel good account was about The United States. The United States needs such stories. Some places are doing things right and we should be feeling good about those places.

 

You want a feel good account about a place that needed it: the musicians on the Titanic played well as the ship sunk.? Another feel good story: many cultural organizations have moved online; the pandemic has speeded up this move; for free, you can “ attend” the Metropolitan Opera every night?. Another feel good story: this pandemic has made the public aware of the ways to lessen contagious infections so that this Fall, fewer people are expected to become infected with the flu.?

 

 

“Feel good” stories are around if you care to look for them. “Feel good” stories abound even in the worst places hit by the pandemic: @purplekow has shown us the dedication at his hospital by himself and others that should make us all feel good that even in the darkness, there are sources of hope about the goodness of humanity. His posts have been inspiring and should make us all feel good that such people exist.?

[+ WilliamM]

The feel good account was about The United States. The United States needs such stories. Some places are doing things right and we should be feeling good about those places.

 

You want a feel good account about a place that needed it: the musicians on the Titanic played well as the ship sunk.? Another feel good story: many cultural organizations have moved online; the pandemic has speeded up this move; for free, you can “ attend” the Metropolitan Opera every night?. Another feel good story: this pandemic has made the public aware of the ways to lessen contagious infections so that this Fall, fewer people are expected to become infected with the flu.?

 

 

“Feel good” stories are around if you care to look for them. “Feel good” stories abound even in the worst places hit by the pandemic: @purplekow has shown us the dedication at his hospital by himself and others that should make us all feel good that even in the darkness, there are sources of hope about the goodness of humanity. His posts have been inspiring and should make us all feel good that such people exist.?

 

The Metropolitan Opera is closed. Many of the operas the company shows nightly have been available on the Met site for years.

 

Actually, your goal might be to open up this country sooner rather than later. You are the Woody Allen of surprises.

[Guest]

Yes, it does. The 'event' is human life.

Hmmm, NPR ran a story earlier in the week talking about the pickup in ODs and Suicides over the last couple months... I wonder if that's true on a net basis.

[RealAvalon]

Hmmm, NPR ran a story earlier in the week talking about the pickup in ODs and Suicides over the last couple months... I wonder if that's true on a net basis.

In Trump's Amerika - do the meth.

[marylander1940]

What our offices and work behavior will look like:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/health/cdc-coronavirus-offices.amp.html

 

Note that despite the physical changes, much will come down to personal behavioral compliance with the suggested new norms.

 

Agree!

 

Another flashback to the 80's.

[+ purplekow]

The same can be said of disease, it’s damage is real when it happens, but not permanent.

and BTW, remember that the boom of the 50’s was a post-war boom following the 85million deaths of WWII

 

Back to my earlier point though - war is scary AND dangerous. Whether WWII or 9/11, war cannot be ignored. But unfortunately, outside the field of battle, war tends to drive economies.

 

 

Likewise, infected and sick people cannot be ignored. They must be treated. But while the disease is scary, outside a small number of compromised folks, indications are that it is NOT dangerous. The Prosperity of the economy is the enabling mechanism for treating the sick (unless you’re willing to work for free and can do so without the benefit of the facilities you practice in).

 

so, let’s stop confusing things by comparing events that are scary AND dangerous with things that are scary and NOT dangerous.

You are right. Disease and dying are scary and dangerous. Economic hardship well, scary for some and mostly dangerous for those who want more than their share. So who is confused? But, as far as I know, death is permanent as are the real deficits that people who survive suffer. Your arrogance about other people's health issues is shared by many, mostly those in the 1%. By the way, you may not be able to work, but you personally can come and feed Covid patient's at the hospital, they could use the help and it seems you are anxious to work.

And you are right that the post War Boom was a driving force and so were public works and government support for education. Quite Frankly, I do not think anyone was saying, you know, well 85 million dead over 5 years but the economy is doing well. You do seem content to say 100000 in the US are dead and I am good with that as long as I can go out to lunch and the government does not go further into debt. But if the government goes further into debt, taxes will go up. You know whose taxes will go up? Everyone's including the 1% who taxes just got slashed. So pretend that opening the economy is for the little guy, when the ones who stand to lose the most financially are the ones that have the most. Give back the big giveaway including the tax breaks on real estate going back two years and there will be more than enough money for equipment just perhaps a smaller market for expensive shoes and private jets. And yes, people will pay more taxes. Oh...scary and dangerous. You are right.

Edited May 29, 2020 by purplekow

[+ purplekow]

The same can be said of disease, it’s damage is real when it happens, but not permanent.

and BTW, remember that the boom of the 50’s was a post-war boom following the 85million deaths of WWII

 

Back to my earlier point though - war is scary AND dangerous. Whether WWII or 9/11, war cannot be ignored. But unfortunately, outside the field of battle, war tends to drive economies.

 

Likewise, infected and sick people cannot be ignored. They must be treated. But while the disease is scary, outside a small number of compromised folks, indications are that it is NOT dangerous. The Prosperity of the economy is the enabling mechanism for treating the sick (unless you’re willing to work for free and can do so without the benefit of the facilities you practice in).

 

so, let’s stop confusing things by comparing events that are scary AND dangerous with things that are scary and NOT dangerous.

By the way, keep clinging to the thought that is other people that get Covid. They came for the trade unionists..... or perhaps....They came for the sick and infirm and I did not speak out because I was not sick and infirm. Then they came for the impoverished but I did not speak out because I was not impoverished. Then they came for the gays. (oh wait we did that one already we know how that turned out)....The previous healthy 19 year old I am caring for probably thought that. So too did the 37 year old mother of 3. Proably the 85 year old thought she might get it but she probably did not plan on being on a ventilator for the last 7 weeks, but her family is convinced she will live. Yeah, keep telling yourself this disease is for other people. If you are lucky, that will be true. If not, at least your estate will be healthy.

[+ WilliamM]

The same can be said of disease, it’s damage is real when it happens, but not permanent.

and BTW, remember that the boom of the 50’s was a post-war boom following the 85million deaths of WWII

 

Back to my earlier point though - war is scary AND dangerous. Whether WWII or 9/11, war cannot be ignored. But unfortunately, outside the field of battle, war tends to drive economies.

 

Good to know, I shall tell my friend's wife. He died in Vietnam, and his name is on the Vietnam Memorial in Washington.

[RealAvalon]

You are right. Disease and dying are scary and dangerous. Economic hardship well, scary for some and mostly dangerous for those who want more than their share. So who is confused? But, as far as I know, death is permanent as are the real deficits that people who survive suffer. Your arrogance about other people's health issues is shared by many, mostly those in the 1%. By the way, you may not be able to work, but you personally can come and feed Covid patient's at the hospital, they could use the help and it seems you are anxious to work.

And you are right that the post War Boom was a driving force and so were public works and government support for education. Quite Frankly, I do not think anyone was saying, you know, well 85 million dead over 5 years but the economy is doing well. You do seem content to say 100000 in the US are dead and I am good with that as long as I can go out to lunch and the government does not go further into debt. But if the government goes further into debt, taxes will go up. You know whose taxes will go up? Everyone's including the 1% who taxes just got slashed. So pretend that opening the economy is for the little guy, when the ones who stand to lose the most financially are the ones that have the most. Give back the big giveaway including the tax breaks on real estate going back two years and there will be more than enough money for equipment just perhaps a smaller market for expensive shoes and private jets. And yes, people will pay more taxes. Oh...scary and dangerous. You are right.

The USA is unique in having no federal coordinated planning and responsibility for COVID. It must be very frustrating to be working the health care 'system' in such a situation.

 

COVID has people talking about rates a lot. And that 100,000 in less than two months, that's a rate of almost 2,000 deaths everyday for the foreseeable future.

 

Even if the President manage nothing more, than saying everyday, wash your hands, don't touch your face, wear a mask. Even that minimal task would save countless lives.

[+ bigjoey]

The Metropolitan Opera is closed. Many of the operas the company shows nightly have been available on the Met site for years.

 

Actually, your goal might be to open up this country sooner rather than later. You are the Woody Allen of surprises.

My post clearly reads that these performances can be viewed FREE. Normally, to view the shows have a cost. Yes, I know the Metropolitan Opera is closed.

 

While I might be the “Woody Allen of surprises” to you, you are no longer a surprise to me. Save the snide comments for your PM’s (which I no longer read).

 

From my posts, everyone should know how I feel about opening up the country “sooner rather than later.” Go back and refresh your mind and find the definitive answer.

[+ WilliamM]

My post clearly reads that these performances can be viewed FREE. Normally, to view the shows have a cost. Yes, I know the Metropolitan Opera is closed.

 

While I might be the “Woody Allen of surprises” to you, you are no longer a surprise to me. Save the snide comments for your PM’s (which I no longer read).

 

From my posts, everyone should know how I feel about opening up the country “sooner rather than later.” Go back and refresh your mind and find the definitive answer.

 

Free or for a relatively low cost many Met operas are available also on DVD in local libraries (free) and for people who live in New York, or close to New York (standing room and at reduced prices for seniors and students). My first opera was Britten's "Death in Venice" at the Met in 1974. I didn't have much money, and I could even afford it.

 

 

And I like standing room at lot, especially for an opera I barely know (and with excellent singers like Kauffmann or Flores).

Edited May 30, 2020 by WilliamM

[Guest]

By the way, keep clinging to the thought that is other people that get Covid. They came for the trade unionists..... or perhaps....They came for the sick and infirm and I did not speak out because I was not sick and infirm. Then they came for the impoverished but I did not speak out because I was not impoverished. Then they came for the gays. (oh wait we did that one already we know how that turned out)....The previous healthy 19 year old I am caring for probably thought that. So too did the 37 year old mother of 3. Proably the 85 year old thought she might get it but she probably did not plan on being on a ventilator for the last 7 weeks, but her family is convinced she will live. Yeah, keep telling yourself this disease is for other people. If you are lucky, that will be true. If not, at least your estate will be healthy.

You’re going down a rabbit hole my friend. I respect that you are at ground zero. I respect and appreciate what you are doing and the compassion you show in doing it. But again, we do not have the capacity as a society to eliminate risk to the lowest common denominator. In Troy, they left the infirm and deformed out to die. We care for the sick and infirm. But despite all that we have, we have limitations...we learned in pre school... all the kings horses and all the kings men can’t put humpty together again.

[Guest]

In Trump's Amerika - do the meth.

Interesting response from someone who lives in a country with a high drug addiction rate. Or RECURRING Annual deaths from substance several times what we are globally Experiencing with the covid event.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/substances-risk-factor-vs-direct-deaths?country=~CAN

 

And BTW, it’s AmeriCa...and it belongs to Americans...not trump.