I'm starting to smell.....

[jawjateck]

Fluffy....I use the VIX as one of a few indicators to look for trading opportunities, NOT investing for the long term. I personally am not putting any money to work for the long-term & don't think now is a good time. I'm very very light on my long term holdings. I sold out of most of my stocks last year. I expect a lot of volatility this year.

[+ FreshFluff]

Fluffy....I use the VIX as one of a few indicators to look for trading opportunities, NOT investing for the long term. I personally am not putting any money to work for the long-term & don't think now is a good time. I'm very very light on my long term holdings. I sold out of most of my stocks last year. I expect a lot of volatility this year.

 

Yeah, I was going to sell in September and ended up not doing it.

[+ stevenkesslar]

Love the post.

 

FWIW...If you have real estate, don't sell (ever)....If you are thinking about buying real estate, don't buy. Let the market correct itself first.

 

Well, thanks for NOT slamming the door in my face two days in a row, BVB. Apparently you like financial advice more than hard, award winning escort cock. Go figure. To each his own.

 

But, as always, you are right. I've sold 3 houses in my life, 2 of which I was intentionally flipping. All 3 are now worth way more than I sold them for. Then again, I feel good that I played a small role in 3 low-income families becoming home owners in ways that did not simply fuck them over.

[jackjackjack]

As we see from these few posts, there is some anxiety with what's going on with the world financial markets. All I can say is don't panic. If you're not that knowledgeable with your investments, seek advise, but not from this forum. If you have no one to turn for advise (any advise, approach with caution), and you make a decision to buy, sell, hold, whatever, then do it, and feel comfortable with what you did. There's always tomorrow. That being said, i think we're in for a very, very, bumpy ride.....and it's not going to be pretty.

[+ Funguy]

Yeah, cheap oil probably primes the pump for more whoring.

 

I think the algorithm goes something like this. Oil price ($/barrel) / lube price (10 oz. bottle) - rubbers purchased (12 pack box) = increased sperm ejaculation x whore rate (average Rentmen $/hr). If the ratio is higher than 1.5 it means that people are spending at least 50 % of every $ saved on gas for escort cock.

 

I like this algorithm. Just a simple question - what units is the "increased sperm ejaculation" measured in? cc's, ml's, quarts? And what about semen WITHOUT sperm to complicate matters?

[jawjateck]

Just another blah down day, with nothing decisive from a trading standpoint, except we probed a new bottom (hehehehe). Sorry kids, more pain to come.

[bigvalboy]

Well, thanks for NOT slamming the door in my face two days in a row, BVB. Apparently you like financial advice more than hard, award winning escort cock. Go figure. To each his own.

 

Not necessarily... Personally it's easy getting my own financial advice, OTOH award winning escort cock is harder to come by.

who's award winning cock are we talking about? .....and be very careful how you answer that, because this thread could go south real quick.

[+ stevenkesslar]

Not necessarily... Personally it's easy getting my own financial advice, OTOH award winning escort cock is harder to come by.

who's award winning cock are we talking about? .....and be very careful how you answer that, because this thread could go south real quick.

 

You know exactly what and who I am talking about. I invited JD, Alec, or Dane to come cock-whip your face. You coldly slammed the door in their faces. No doubt your obsession with Killian has gotten the best of you. What is it about you and these 20something white muscleboys?

 

And I am sure you would like this thread to go South real quick. Like maybe Southern Florida?

[+ stevenkesslar]

I like this algorithm. Just a simple question - what units is the "increased sperm ejaculation" measured in? cc's, ml's, quarts? And what about semen WITHOUT sperm to complicate matters?

 

I'm old fashioned. I measure cum by the "load." So if you fill my mouth with cum, it's like, "Dude, you spewed a big load of cum in my mouth." If it is dripping down my chin, I then add a 50 % multiplier, although I discount 25 % if it seems excessively watery or salty.

 

I add a 100 % multiplier if it is shot excessively far, like from the tip of the penis over my head.

 

I actually tried to get a federal grant funded to study the relationship between financially-based stress and sperm count, but DHS said they wanted to use the money to prosecute Rentboy instead. Fuckers!

[bigvalboy]

You know exactly what and who I am talking about. I invited JD, Alec, or Dane to come cock-whip your face.

 

http://nappyheadedblackgirl.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/boy-bye.gif

[+ stevenkesslar]

There are exceptions to my rule.... Very few bought at the bottom of the market, so if selling makes sense for you now, by all means do it. But don't wait, I see a down turn coming, or at the very least little to no growth this year and next.

 

Seriously, a housing downturn? Tell me more.

 

I just saw a chart of the Top 100 markets in the country. In maybe 20 % of them, if that, prices are finally a little bit above the market highs of the last decade - like San Jose, basically some of the tech hot spots. In most places, home prices are still double digits lower than they were a decade or so again when the market peaked.

 

The big "fire sale" bounce back is over. Like jawja I bought homes during the fire sale and the ones I bought at or near the bottom are up 50 to 100 %. But even those ones are still well below what they were worth on paper at the peak, like in 2006 or so.

 

I'd buy the idea that we are in store for modest growth for the next several years, but what leads you to think a downturn? There is still a huge market or people that I think want to buy homes, like a generation of recent college grads. I buy the "half full" narrative that unemployment is back down to pre-Great Recession levels, and as a result labor markets are tightening and average wages and incomes are finally going up. Unless interest rates skyrocket, which the current stock market meltdown guarantees won't happen, homes are still enough in the affordable zone that I see unmet demand driving net buying for years to come.

 

What am I missing?

[jackjackjack]

Sadly, as most economist agree the real unemployment rate is not 5% is more between 10-11%. And many of those recent college graduates are living back at home because they can't find a decent job. The website below is just one example of real unemployment.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/04/-the-real-unemployment-rate.html

[mike carey]

Oil prices world wide are driving down markets, which makes investors nervous, and jackjackjack is correct, the unemployment rate is likely higher.

I don't know for sure whether unemployment is what the statistics say it is or higher, even double that. To some extent it doesn't matter because what is really relevant is how much higher or lower it is than it was before: it's how much unemployment has changed (using the same measurement methodology) that is important, not what the current number is.

[bigvalboy]

I don't know for sure whether unemployment is what the statistics say it is or higher, even double that. To some extent it doesn't matter because what is really relevant is how much higher or lower it is than it was before: it's how much unemployment has changed (using the same measurement methodology) that is important, not what the current number is.

 

Not sure I am completely following you, but my point is that claiming the unemployment is 5% is an unrealistic base, it presumes that the economy is actually stronger than it is, and I don't think anyone believes that number anyway. Many of the investors and cash buyers are gone. If the guy making 50k a year can't get a loan to buy property, then real estate stalls, and so does the economy.

[+ stevenkesslar]

You're not missing anything. This is just one man's opinion, which is based on what I see in the market, and by talking to Realtors every week. I'll agree, the great fire sale is over, but using 06' as a gage is unrealistic, because prices were unrealistic. This time around, the market correction so far is fairly sustainable, but in Florida, cash buyers are evaporating at an alarming rate. Banks are making loans, but the perimeters by which they are loaning, are in most cases burdensome for the buyer. I have a friend who has perfect credit and has 200K cash to put down on a water front condo that is 250K. He can't get a loan. So what's the risk to the lender? There is none, but everyone is nervous. If banks won't free up money, real estate won't grow.

 

FTL and Miami in particular went through tremendous growth as we came out of the recession, and has continued. Prices doubled and in some cases tripled, but real estate was so depressed here, there was room for that kind of growth, and for awhile, it worked. Now...prices are at levels where there isn't room anymore for an investor. So yes, the parties over. I always felt that the real estate market grew too fast. I didn't say a recession, I said a downturn or little to no growth. For me that means if someone is planning on buying, wait to see where the market goes. A small group of investors and myself, were going to buy investment property this year to hold (indefinitely?), we just pushed back our buy date to late 2017 or later. I see no hurry at this point.

 

Oil prices world wide are driving down markets, which makes investors nervous, and jackjackjack is correct, the unemployment rate is likely higher. I see a slowing of the economy for the next couple of years. As they said in MSNBC (if you want to believe them, and I do) the next President may very well face another recession. I don't think it's that bad, but anyone who thinks this growth is going to continue, isn't being realistic. IMHO..Whew! Brain cells are exhausted, so back to the gallery...

 

Thanks for the expanded comments.

 

I agree that it's no longer particularly good timing for investors to get good deals on income property, including single family homes. It's a shame that back in the fire sale days investors with cash got great bargains, and potential first time buyers could not get mortgages.

 

I don't talk to realtors like you do. You are right that if, in general, investors who have cash don't want to buy, and creditworthy potential home buyers who want to buy can't get mortgages, that will have to slow down the market. Regardless, there are lots of potential buyers out there, and nature abhors a vacuum.

[Rudynate]

Not sure I am completely following you, but my point is that claiming the unemployment is 5% is an unrealistic base, it presumes that the economy is actually stronger than it is, and I don't think anyone believes that number anyway. Many of the investors and cash buyers are gone. If the guy making 50k a year can't get a loan to buy property, then real estate stalls, and so does the economy.

 

If the method of calculating unemployment hasn't changed, the "real number" isn't that important. The net change is the most important number.

[mattr]

If the method of calculating unemployment hasn't changed, the "real number" isn't that important. The net change is the most important number.

 

The method of calculation hasn't changed but you can't look at this one number and determine the employment picture. There are 2 more numbers which you have to look at. The participation rate (the number of people working or looking for a job) which is at the lowest level in history and the underemployment rate (number of people who had to take jobs which pay less than what they had been making and do no utilize their skills (those 40-somethings working at Home Depot are not there by choice). A lot of people have given up looking for work so they are no longer consider to be participating in the job market. If we had the same participation rate as 10 years ago, unemployment would be 10% +/-. A better picture of the economy would be looking at the percentage of people who are unemployed (actively looking or have given up looking) or underemployed which is 16%+/-. That is why we have had almost no wage growth and why we have had a somewhat anemic recovery.

[bigvalboy]

The method of calculation hasn't changed but you can't look at this one number and determine the employment picture. There are 2 more numbers which you have to look at. The participation rate (the number of people working or looking for a job) which is at the lowest level in history and the underemployment rate (number of people who had to take jobs which pay less than what they had been making and do no utilize their skills (those 40-somethings working at Home Depot are not there by choice). A lot of people have given up looking for work so they are no longer consider to be participating in the job market. If we had the same participation rate as 10 years ago, unemployment would be 10% +/-. A better picture of the economy would be looking at the percentage of people who are unemployed (actively looking or have given up looking) or underemployed which is 16%+/-. That is why we have had almost no wage growth and why we have had a somewhat anemic recovery.

 

This is what I was trying to say....

[Rudynate]

The method of calculation hasn't changed but you can't look at this one number and determine the employment picture. There are 2 more numbers which you have to look at. The participation rate (the number of people working or looking for a job) which is at the lowest level in history and the underemployment rate (number of people who had to take jobs which pay less than what they had been making and do no utilize their skills (those 40-somethings working at Home Depot are not there by choice). A lot of people have given up looking for work so they are no longer consider to be participating in the job market. If we had the same participation rate as 10 years ago, unemployment would be 10% +/-. A better picture of the economy would be looking at the percentage of people who are unemployed (actively looking or have given up looking) or underemployed which is 16%+/-. That is why we have had almost no wage growth and why we have had a somewhat anemic recovery.

 

No, it doesn't feel like 5%, which would have people dancing in the streets.

[Decatur Guy]

.....some fear in the stock market. Down another 2.5% this morning. If we could get a little bit of panic, I would be all over it. I have my shopping list ready to pick up some bargains.

 

If the VIX hits 40ish, I'm buying. Who else is licking their chops?

 

I'm getting ready to do some shopping too. We'll talk it over!

[+ FreshFluff]

Love the post.

 

FWIW...If you have real estate, don't sell (ever)....

 

Mom?? How ever did you find this forum?

[+ quoththeraven]

*shakes head at market timers*

 

*goes back to sleep*

[bigvalboy]

Mom?? How ever did you find this forum?

 

LMAO...

[+ Charlie]

.

Well, you're right. not everyone. haha. We've all made investments that we regret.

...or should have made and we didn't.

I have never made an investment I regretted. I have made purchases that I regretted (those gold-colored wool dress pants, that 1971 Renault 12, a not-to-be-named popular escort, etc.).

[jackjackjack]

Charlie, I can keep a secret... sssshhh. . Actually, no one will read this post anyway. So do tell... who is that not-to-be-named escort?