When Airplanes Crash

[Lotus-eater]

13 hours ago, Monarchy79 said:

I simply won’t be flying anymore. The surge in plane crashes is disturbing. 

And for the statisticians who say that “scientifically”, planes are still safe….. I personally loathe the methodology of comparing aircrafts to other modes of transportation for various reasons:

1.) The average weight of a car is about 4100 lbs. the average weight of a commercial aircraft is about 175,000 lbs.

2.) A car can hold around 2 -5 riders, while a plane can hold scores of passengers. 

3.) Many car collisions happen everyday, with no fatalities. There are rarely “fender benders” in the sky. In most cases, when the plane crashes, death is imminent.

My trips will be quite long moving forward, because road trips, scenic train rides, and long cruises will be part of my itinerary . 

I cancelled two business trips (seminars), and took the virtual online option. I’m simply not flying anymore. 

My sincerest prayers for safety for those who still choose too. 
 

It's the base rate fallacy. Statisticians are correct in the sense that even if death is more likely when an accident occurs while flying on a commercial airline, the overall risk of death of traveling by air is still much lower because the probability of any accident occurring at all on a commercial airline is much lower than in a car.

Edited April 15 by Lotus-eater

[+ sync]

6 hours ago, Lotus-eater said:

It's the base rate fallacy. Statisticians are correct in the sense that even if death is more likely when an accident occurs while flying on a commercial airline, the overall risk of death of traveling by air is still much lower because the probability of any accident occurring at all on a commercial airline is much lower than in a car.

Not so much currently.

[Lotus-eater]

14 minutes ago, sync said:

Not so much currently.

You'd need an additional 400 deaths this year in the U.S. to match the historically high 531 deaths from commercial airline accidents in 2001 and that was still about 16 times safer per mile traveled than driving a car. 

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

I had one friend who died while having a medical episode while driving.

I had one friend who suffered head injuries while riding a train during a derailment.

I had 2 friends catch a communicable disease on a ship and were confined to bed for weeks 

I'll stick to flying.

Edit:  But, I'm not going to avoid rail, ships, or ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles just because of the experiences of my friends.  I will, however, not drive an electric or hybrid vehicle.  The rate of crashes with pedestrians are 2 to 3 times higher for electric and hybrid vehicles compared to ICE.

Edited April 15 by Vegas_Millennial

[+ sync]

1 hour ago, Lotus-eater said:

You'd need an additional 400 deaths this year in the U.S. to match the historically high 531 deaths from commercial airline accidents in 2001 and that was still about 16 times safer per mile traveled than driving a car. 

400.  That's about one jumbo jet.

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

23 hours ago, Monarchy79 said:

National is just not a safe airport, and doesn’t have the appropriate “air” infrastructure to handle as many flights that land and depart, while competing will military aircrafts. 

On a daily basis, one can literally see a “traffic” jam in the sky, of planes waiting to land. 
I live 10 minutes away from National airport and always used BWI or Dulles when I did fly. 
 

 

Be sure to avoid flying to/from most airports in southern California.  While Reagan airport did make this list, there are a lot of California and Colorado airports on this list: 

15 Most Dangerous Airports in the US [Update 2024]

USABYNUMBERS.COM

---

Check out the most dangerous airports in the US and try to stay safe while travelling through any of these.

 

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

6 hours ago, Lotus-eater said:

You'd need an additional 400 deaths this year in the U.S. to match the historically high 531 deaths from commercial airline accidents in 2001 and that was still about 16 times safer per mile traveled than driving a car. 

Thank you for trying to explain the nuts and bolts of this.

Numbers matter.  Just because you 'feel' something is dangerous doesn't mean it is.

There were 42,514 deaths from motor vehicle crashes in the United States in 2024, equalling 12.8 deaths per 100,000 people and 1.33 deaths per 100 million miles traveled, according to Federal Highway Administration statistics via the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS).

Compared with the MIT figures about flying, the figures suggest US residents are 1,753 times more likely to die on the roads than in plane crashes.

Edited April 15 by BenjaminNicholas

[Guest]

Not to make light of anything, but my plane to Palm Springs took off RIGHT as the helicopter crashed into the Hudson river. We were all looking at each other like this.

[mike carey]

2 hours ago, BenjaminNicholas said:

Thank you for trying to explain the nuts and bolts of this.

Numbers matter.  Just because you 'feel' something is dangerous doesn't mean it is.

There were 42,514 deaths from motor vehicle crashes in the United States in 2024, equalling 12.8 deaths per 100,000 people and 1.33 deaths per 100 million miles traveled, according to Federal Highway Administration statistics via the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS).

Compared with the MIT figures about flying, the figures suggest US residents are 1,753 times more likely to die on the roads than in plane crashes.

You perhaps should stop confusing the issue with facts.

[Luv2play]

9 hours ago, Lotus-eater said:

You'd need an additional 400 deaths this year in the U.S. to match the historically high 531 deaths from commercial airline accidents in 2001 and that was still about 16 times safer per mile traveled than driving a car. 

I am assuming the 2001 data included the 9/11 attacks which saw  4 commercial jetliners crashed by terrorists killing all aboard. All in one day. That made for a completely skewed set of data for 2001. 

[Luv2play]

7 hours ago, sync said:

400.  That's about one jumbo jet.

I’m old enough to remember when two jumbo jets collided on the runway in the Azores ( or Canary Islands, I forget which). Over 500 people were killed in that one accident. 

[mike carey]

19 minutes ago, Luv2play said:

I’m old enough to remember when two jumbo jets collided on the runway in the Azores ( or Canary Islands, I forget which). Over 500 people were killed in that one accident. 

Tenerife, Canary Islands, 1977. One Pan Am and one KLM. I had to look up the 1977 part.

[Lotus-eater]

41 minutes ago, Luv2play said:

I am assuming the 2001 data included the 9/11 attacks which saw  4 commercial jetliners crashed by terrorists killing all aboard. All in one day. That made for a completely skewed set of data for 2001. 

That's precisely why I picked it. You'd be safer flying even if the death total this year turns out to be 2,313, which is the largest number of commercial airline accident deaths to occur globally in one year (1972).

 

 

[MikeBiDude]

1 hour ago, mike carey said:

Tenerife, Canary Islands, 1977. One Pan Am and one KLM. I had to look up the 1977 part.

I’ll always remember overhearing an insurance business contact of my dad’s saying “we always figured one would go down….we didn’t plan on two”.

[+ azdr0710]

 

when you have 45 minutes, this is a very good production about the worst airplane accident to date (1956)......