Walking the dog today....

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Luv2play said:

 

 

3 hours ago, Luv2play said:

...On the positive side the snow pack in the mountains will alleviate somewhat the drought conditions this summer but not by much unless the precipitation continues...

According to Wikipedia, "A drought is defined as drier than normal conditions.  This means that a drought is "a moisture deficit relative to the average water availability at a given location and season"." Almost all of California's precipitation occurs from December to March. Precipitation levels have been at higher than normal levels for most communities, other than the area between Palm Springs and Needles:

https://ggweather.com/seasonal_rain.htm (The percent normal to date is obviously the relevant statistic)

Therefore, California is not in a drought by definition. Period. There is no "somewhat." The only caveat to that is that part of southern California's water supply comes from the Colorado River. So the absence of drought in California doesn't necessarily mean all parts of the state may not have issues with water availability. If southern California has problems with water allotment, however, it will be because the Colorado River water basin is in a drought, not because California is in a drought. I do not know what the situation is regarding the Colorado River basin, though I do seem to hear they've gotten some storms as well. 

Addendum:

According to some data I looked up online, it appears that problems with allocations from the Colorado River arise mostly due to increases in demand, not due to decreases in rainfall:

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/opinion/podium-don-t-blame-climate-for-colorado-river-s-woes/article_753d79de-2e64-11ed-903f-b717729011bc.html

"The flow rate of the upper basin, when adjusted for human off-take (mainly municipalities, cities and agriculture) fluctuates cyclically but the long-term trend is virtually unchanged. In the “old” days, the primary demand for river water was agriculture. What has changed is the number of city dwellers now needing water. Phoenix has grown 432% since 1970. Las Vegas is up 1,082% since 1970; Los Angeles is up 49%, or 4.1 million, and Denver  has grown 174%.

Bottom line: Lake Powell and Lake Mead levels are down because of population growth, primarily in the lower basin. Water demand has exceeded the normal replenishment rate in Lake Mead. River-flow rate into Lake Powell, adjusted for human off-take, is normal. The climate change Boogieman is not to blame.

Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute told the LA Times that scientists have warned politicians and water management bureaucrats for years. He was an author of one of these early warnings in 1993, 30 years ago. “If we had cut water use in the Colorado River over the last two decades to what we now understand to be the actual levels of water availability, there would be more water in the reservoirs today,” Gleick said. “The crisis wouldn’t be nearly as bad.”..."

Edited March 7, 2023 by Unicorn

[Luv2play]

3 hours ago, Unicorn said:

 

According to Wikipedia, "A drought is defined as drier than normal conditions.  This means that a drought is "a moisture deficit relative to the average water availability at a given location and season"." Almost all of California's precipitation occurs from December to March. Precipitation levels have been at higher than normal levels for most communities, other than the area between Palm Springs and Needles:

https://ggweather.com/seasonal_rain.htm (The percent normal to date is obviously the relevant statistic)

Therefore, California is not in a drought by definition. Period. There is no "somewhat." The only caveat to that is that part of southern California's water supply comes from the Colorado River. So the absence of drought in California doesn't necessarily mean all parts of the state may not have issues with water availability. If southern California has problems with water allotment, however, it will be because the Colorado River water basin is in a drought, not because California is in a drought. I do not know what the situation is regarding the Colorado River basin, though I do seem to hear they've gotten some storms as well. 

Addendum:

According to some data I looked up online, it appears that problems with allocations from the Colorado River arise mostly due to increases in demand, not due to decreases in rainfall:

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/opinion/podium-don-t-blame-climate-for-colorado-river-s-woes/article_753d79de-2e64-11ed-903f-b717729011bc.html

"The flow rate of the upper basin, when adjusted for human off-take (mainly municipalities, cities and agriculture) fluctuates cyclically but the long-term trend is virtually unchanged. In the “old” days, the primary demand for river water was agriculture. What has changed is the number of city dwellers now needing water. Phoenix has grown 432% since 1970. Las Vegas is up 1,082% since 1970; Los Angeles is up 49%, or 4.1 million, and Denver  has grown 174%.

Bottom line: Lake Powell and Lake Mead levels are down because of population growth, primarily in the lower basin. Water demand has exceeded the normal replenishment rate in Lake Mead. River-flow rate into Lake Powell, adjusted for human off-take, is normal. The climate change Boogieman is not to blame.

Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute told the LA Times that scientists have warned politicians and water management bureaucrats for years. He was an author of one of these early warnings in 1993, 30 years ago. “If we had cut water use in the Colorado River over the last two decades to what we now understand to be the actual levels of water availability, there would be more water in the reservoirs today,” Gleick said. “The crisis wouldn’t be nearly as bad.”..."

I'll have to check agsin but all I've been reading for some time now is that California has been experiencing drought conditions for some time now. I will have to check how many years. 

This rainy season has been exceptional in that regard. It's not the only place on earrh that has had heavy precipitation in their rainy season. Pakistan almost drowned this past year during their monsoon season. And scientists are attributing this to climate change. 

 

[mike carey]

As noted earlier, a drought is a moisture deficit compared with what is normally available. It's not just a matter of precipitation at a particular time, so a downpour often (or perhaps usually) won't end a drought. Similarly, the absence of the usual amount of rain, even for an extended period, won't necessarily constitute a drought. The 'normal level of moisture' includes the amount of water in rivers, lakes and reservoirs and the level of soil moisture, all of which take time to replenish once it starts raining (and take time to be depleted when it stops).

'Official' drought declarations for areas are a regular feature of weather reporting in this country (few of them lately) and no doubt in others. When there is a drought, weather reports of rainfall will comment on whether it is 'drought breaking' or how much it will contribute to breaking the drought. Sometimes a drought ends quickly, more often it's gradual.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, mike carey said:

... The 'normal level of moisture' includes the amount of water in rivers, lakes and reservoirs and the level of soil moisture...

All of the state's lakes, rivers, and reservoirs are full--and they're usually at their fullest in the early summer, right after all of the snow has melted (and emptiest in November, right before the rainy season begins in earnest). I have a friend who lives near Lake Oroville, the state's 2nd biggest reservoir, and he's told me that the 4th of July week-end is usually when the reservoir/lake is at its fullest. The fact of the full reservoirs was documented by the webcams I provided links for earlier in this string. At this point, they're simply spilling over. The underground water tables aren't full, but that's because central valley farmers dig deep wells to suck all of the water out for their thirsty plants such as almond trees. 

https://www.greenmatters.com/food/how-much-water-does-it-take-to-grow-an-almond

"...According to a 2017 study published to Science Direct, one California almond has an average "water footprint" of 12 liters or 3.2 gallons, which is quite a bit more than you might think, considering how tiny a single almond is. This large amount of water is especially concerning when we consider how long droughts in the Golden State can last..."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/05/health/everyday-foods-water-drought-climate-intl/index.html

"...About 80% of the world’s almonds are grown in California. A recent study found that between 2004 and 2015, it took an average of 12 liters of water to grow just one Californian almond, and almond farmers rely heavily on irrigation and groundwater reserves to water their crops. Almond production uses around 2 trillion liters of water per year and is contributing heavily to groundwater depletion and land degradation, according to Professor Yoshihide Wada, deputy director of the water program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

Groundwater levels in the Central Valley, where most almond crops are grown, dropped by almost a half-meter annually during California’s historic seven-year drought in 2011, according to a study by Cornell University. “It is unsustainable,” Wada said, adding that almond prices could rise if farmers keep pumping deeper to reach groundwater. “It’s economically unprofitable if you go too deep.”...".

So California is NOT in a drought. This does not mean that there aren't still water conservation challenges, but the challenges come from other cities competing for Colorado River water (such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc.), and excessively thirsty crops. A water conservation challenge does NOT mean the state is in a drought, which it is not. We cannot count on repeated years with 130% or higher normal precipitation (current snow levels in the mountains are generally around double their normal moisture content at this time).

https://cnap.ucsd.edu/storage_in_sierra_ucrb/

If we need more water, we will either have to build more reservoirs or reverse osmosis/desalination plants. Two things California has plenty of: ocean water and solar energy to power desalination plants. 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Unicorn

[Guest]

https://abc7.com/snow-survey-california-sierra-nevada-water/12909560/

"...The water content of the Sierra snowpack, which provides about a third of California's water, is almost twice the average thanks to the recent winter storms, according to the state Department of Water Resources...."

[Luv2play]

The level of denial is astounding. One wet season does not alter the overall drought conditions in most of California over the last number of years. If this winter's rain and snow were to repeat next winter then possibly the outlook would brighten. 

However the prospect of hotter and dryer summers could negate the improvement seen in the last month or so. If you look at just the beginning of January the drought situation in California was dire. 

[Luv2play]

I just read the LA Times editorial of today which states only 17 percent of California as of now is drought free. Therefore I take it the rest, 87 percent is affected by some degree of drought. 

It also explains that scientists measure drought conditions by several factors including soil conditions, not the dictionary definition, which Unicorn cited. It goes on to explain why laymen are confused by what they are witnessing and what the experts are studying. 

I listen to what the experts are saying and not what ill informed individuals on social media say.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Luv2play

[+ azdr0710]

One rainy year does not end a years-long drought

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Luv2play said:

I just read the LA Times editorial of today which states only 17 percent of California as of now is drought free....

I listen to what the experts are saying...

You didn't provide your reference, but either you had trouble understanding what you read, or the editorial was factually wrong. Even according to "official pronouncements," significantly less than half of the state has been declared to be in drought. Had you read the link I provided in a prior post, you would have known this, but you certainly seem to have a strong aversion to looking at facts when they don't jibe with your pre-conceived ideas. In this map, only the areas in peach and orange are still officially declared to be in drought:

I will again note that the orange area in the lower right is Death Valley, and the peach area around it the Mojave Desert (not a significant source of water ever). The orange area in the north is the drainage area for the Sacramento River, but I also previously provided the link to the webcam showing that the massive Shasta Lake/Reservoir (largest in the state) is already completely full and overflowing, right in the middle of that orange area. 

So if "experts" told you the sky is purple or the earth is flat, would that make it so? No, but I can bet you'd believe it. The truth can be had from the data gathered by the hydrology experts (also noted in prior links) and in photographs and webcams of the lakes, reservoirs, and rivers. Government "drought" pronouncements simply constitute an attempt to deflect from the real problem: the lack of plan or action to address the water needs of a growing population. The south-west's population growth requires action to meet increased water demands. I can think of two options: (1) build more reservoirs, and/or (2) build desalination plants (preferably solar or tidal-powered). 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, azdr0710 said:

One rainy year does not end a years-long drought

Well, not necessarily, but in this case it did. Last year wasn't exceptionally dry, by the way. 

[Marc in Calif]

Like most things in nature, drought is not black and white. There's exceptional drought, extreme drought, severe drought, moderate drought, and extremely dry (the lowest level of drought). 

As a result, there's a very clear difference between a "contracted" drought and NO drought at all. Looking at the current snowpack and current reservoir levels tells only part of the story, as described here:

The rain has improved California soil moisture and streamflow levels, while the snow has increased mountain snowpack to much above-normal levels. Most California reservoirs have refilled with water levels near or above average, but groundwater levels remain low and may take months to recover. Abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought were contracted across much of California to reflect the above-normal precipitation of recent months, above-normal snowpack, and improved reservoir levels. 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

What agencies or organizations are responsible for the USDM?

The Drought Monitor has been a team effort since its inception in 1999, produced jointly by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The NDMC hosts the web site of the drought monitor and the associated data, and provides the map and data to NOAA, USDA and other agencies. It is freely available at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

And Even More

https://drought.ca.gov/

The March 3 snow survey showed California’s snowpack is at 190% of average for that date, with more snow likely on the way. After three years of historic drought, however, it’s still too early to describe the entire state as “out of drought,” particularly as conditions vary across regions....

While winter storms have helped the snowpack and reservoirs, groundwater basins are much slower to recover. Many rural areas are still experiencing water supply challenges, especially communities that rely on groundwater supplies which have been depleted due to prolonged drought. It will take more than a single wet year for groundwater levels to substantially improve at a statewide scale. Drought impacts also vary by location and drought recovery will need to be evaluated on a regional scale and will depend on local water supply conditions....

 

 

[Luv2play]

Marc in Calif has provided a well balanced and informative summary of the situation in Calif. as I understand it to be. 

[Guest]

Today's view looking north from the West (higher) ridge of Runyon Canyon, looking towards Studio City and the valley:

[Guest]

And trying to get from West Hollywood from Beverly Hills Today (notice the Hollywood sign next to the large palm tree):

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Marc in Calif said:

Like most things in nature, drought is not black and white. There's exceptional drought, extreme drought, severe drought, moderate drought, and extremely dry (the lowest level of drought)... groundwater levels remain low and may take months to recover... Drought impacts also vary by location and drought recovery will need to be evaluated on a regional scale and will depend on local water supply conditions....

I have to correct you on some factual errors. First of all, there is no "extremely dry" category. There is an "abnormally dry" level, and it is officially NOT considered the lowest level (or any level) of drought. By definition (no matter what you may prefer it to mean). Also, groundwater levels do no fit into the definition of drought. They will not recover, in months, or ever, because drought did not cause the low groundwater levels. As I explained in prior posts, the groundwater gets sapped dry by central valley farmers who dig deep wells, especially for the extensive crops of almond trees:

https://www.c-win.org/cwin-water-blog/2022/7/11/california-almond-water-usage#:~:text=Q%3A How much of California's developed water supply do almonds,the total developed water supply.

"...Almonds use approximately 4.9-5.7 million acre-feet of water per year, which is up to 17% of the total agricultural water use in California and 13% of the total developed water supply..." 

Also, local water supply conditions, while slightly related, do not fit into the definition of drought. Obviously, if there's a drought, local water supply conditions will be worse. But local water supply conditions can be problematic (or not) irrespective of whether or not there's a drought. For example, cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix could have 3 times their average rainfall for a century, and still not have an adequate water supply. Their water supply depends mostly on rainfall elsewhere (Colorado River basin). It should be intuitively obvious that local water supply conditions are determined by a place's population (water needs) relative to its water supply (which may or may not be local). I do agree that California (southern California in particular) has issues with water supply. This does NOT translate to there being a drought. The problem with the water supply is due to failure of officials to plan for and accommodate the increasing population (not building reservoirs in decades, nor looking for other sources of water). 

A place can have an adequate water supply and be in a drought, or have an inadequate water supply and have prolonged periods of excessive rain. The definition of drought does not make any mention of "local water supply," because drought and local water supply are two different terms and concepts. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Unicorn

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Luv2play said:

Marc in Calif has provided a well balanced and informative summary of the situation in Calif. as I understand it to be. 

As usual, when confronted with factual information that contradicts your beliefs, you take solace in the fact that "someone agrees with me," which seems to be your only response ever when data is presented to you. I cannot recall that you  have ever responded with your own factual data to support your beliefs. I personally find that very childish. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Unicorn

[Marc in Calif]

2 hours ago, Unicorn said:

This does NOT translate to there being a drought.

Can you provide verified evidence to disprove these quotes from the sources that I cited?

Abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought were contracted across much of California.

The most recent drought episode has lasted [i.e., and still exists] up to 3 years.

After three years of historic drought, however, it’s still too early to describe the entire state as “out of drought,” particularly as conditions vary across regions.

___________________

And...

Groundwater is an important factor, or indicator, for drought.

(Who said that groundwater levels were part of the "definition of drought"? Nobody whom I cited.)

 

[Marc in Calif]

On 3/6/2023 at 6:31 PM, Unicorn said:

According to Wikipedia, "A drought is defined as drier than normal conditions.... 

Of course that's the (simplistic) definition. Hence the D0 level that I cited: "abnormally dry."

So your Wikipedia definition would clearly describe D0 ("abnormally dry") conditions in California as evidence of drought. Yet that definition doesn't even mention one additional significant factor: time.

Here's a much more complete and complicated definition:

Drought is generally defined as “a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time (usually a season or more), resulting in a water shortage.”  (drought.gov)

And the U.S. Weather Service definition hits all the relevant terms:

A drought is defined as "a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area." 

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Marc in Calif

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Marc in Calif said:

Can you provide verified evidence to disprove these quotes from the sources that I cited?

...

Groundwater is an important factor, or indicator, for drought.

Dude, I did provide evidence from the hydrologists and the photos/videocams of the full reservoirs. And I also explained to you, in simple terms, I believe, that while groundwater could indicate prior problems with drought (not current drought), in this case the bigger factor is probably the innumerable deep wells central valley farmers have used to suck that water dry (due to planting very thirsty crops, such as almonds). It is a fact at this time that the state has very high water levels in the snow and soil, full lakes, rivers, and reservoirs--in fact overflowing ones. Precipitation has been abnormally high, especially where it counts. Yes, some officials are calling "drought" to try to confuse the innocent into believing the inadequate water supplies for farmers and citizens are due to inadequate precipitation. 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-12-15/california-sites-reservoir-advances-amid-drought

As this article (written in late 2021) says: "California has not built a major new reservoir since 1979....". So do you think the population has grown significantly during that time? How about the populations in states which compete with California for Colorado River water, such as Arizona and Nevada? 

Sure, drought can take more than one season, though in most cases one season is enough (in California, it's officially July 1 to June 30th, but realistically it's December 1 to March 31st). And obviously years of drought can wreak havoc on water supply. Only parts of the Mojave Desert and Death Valley have been unusually dry this year, however. Therefore, since the rest of the state has been wetter than usual, there is no drought in all of the other places. Anybody who says otherwise embarrasses himself. Water supply issues are an entirely different discussion. 

Look at those videocams. Seeing is believing.

[Lookin]

I think it's the media focus on rainy spells and dry spells that makes it seem like drought is a short-term issue but, as others have pointed out, water supply is a long-term issue.  It takes years to get into trouble and it takes years to get out of trouble.

The area where I live is currently enjoying full reservoirs with more rain on the way.  If we have two dry years in a row, we'll be fine.  But it would be much better to have a three-year supply and, with expected climate variations, it wouldn't hurt to have a four-year supply.  And that's what our local water district is studying now.  They've got five options on the table, all with their own significant issues to overcome.

One source of water supply they haven't been taking as seriously as I believe they should is demand reduction, or water conservation.  In the few months since I've been poking my nose in their deliberations, I've learned that forty percent of our residential water is being used for outdoor watering.  I can't imagine that ten or twenty years from now we'll look back and say it was a sensible way to use a precious resource.  So I've been spending my time trying to figure out how we can use less drinking water on our landscapes.  That will involve incentive programs for landscape conversion, along with increased use of non-potable water for heavy outdoor water users.  In my opinion, these programs deserve just as much investment as desalination or new reservoirs.

I believe in the years to come many of us are going to have to evolve our relationship with how we use water.  Even when it's raining, as it is today, we still won't have the luxury of installing a nice new green lawn this summer.

[BSR]

3 hours ago, Lookin said:

I think it's the media focus on rainy spells and dry spells that makes it seem like drought is a short-term issue but, as others have pointed out, water supply is a long-term issue.  It takes years to get into trouble and it takes years to get out of trouble.

The area where I live is currently enjoying full reservoirs with more rain on the way.  If we have two dry years in a row, we'll be fine.  But it would be much better to have a three-year supply and, with expected climate variations, it wouldn't hurt to have a four-year supply.  And that's what our local water district is studying now.  They've got five options on the table, all with their own significant issues to overcome.

One source of water supply they haven't been taking as seriously as I believe they should is demand reduction, or water conservation.  In the few months since I've been poking my nose in their deliberations, I've learned that forty percent of our residential water is being used for outdoor watering.  I can't imagine that ten or twenty years from now we'll look back and say it was a sensible way to use a precious resource.  So I've been spending my time trying to figure out how we can use less drinking water on our landscapes.  That will involve incentive programs for landscape conversion, along with increased use of non-potable water for heavy outdoor water users.  In my opinion, these programs deserve just as much investment as desalination or new reservoirs.

I believe in the years to come many of us are going to have to evolve our relationship with how we use water.  Even when it's raining, as it is today, we still won't have the luxury of installing a nice new green lawn this summer.

The original CSI was set in Las Vegas but shot in Los Angeles (except for the occasional location shot).  One giveaway is that all the houses seen on the show have a grass front lawn.  In Las Vegas grass in front of the house was banned many years ago.  Backyards can be up to 50% covered in natural grass (for kids, pets), but even for backyards the Southern NV Water Authority is pushing artificial grass pretty hard.

[+ tassojunior]

I bet seeing all those mounds of white powder made half the escorts and porn actors in LA fall off the wagon.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Lookin said:

... we still won't have the luxury of installing a nice new green lawn this summer.

 

I have a nice green lawn. It's artificial grass made for dogs. My gardeners were happy not to have to mow my lawn, and can concentrate on trimming the hedges. Most of my landscaping is succulents which require little water.

[Lookin]

22 minutes ago, Unicorn said:

My gardeners were happy not to have to mow my lawn, and can concentrate on trimming the hedges.

Always good to have happy gardeners.  If you don't mind my asking, just how often are you getting your hedge trimmed?  

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Lookin said:

Always good to have happy gardeners.  If you don't mind my asking, just how often are you getting your hedge trimmed?  

...

Well, before I had my lawn replaced with artificial turf, they only trimmed it about every 3-4 weeks, and it looked awful for much of that time. Since I took the lawn mowing out of their workload, the hedge gets trimmed every week and looks nice and neat!