More interesting data regarding Covid

[RealAvalon]

According to this article, nearly half (46%) of Covid deaths in California came from residents of senior care facilities. That's where we should concentrate our efforts, IMHO: daily rapid tests for all staff, no visitors (unless they can pay for and submit to a rapid test).

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/23/nursing-home-death-toll-rises-in-contra-costa-accounting-for-70-percent-of-the-countys-covid-19-deaths/

Pay for a test? That's a strange and inefficient practice for a public health emergency.

 

In Canada 81% of deaths were in long term care facilities for seniors. A recent peer-reviewed study compared public and private facilities. Both types of facilities had similar numbers of outbreaks, but private (for-profit) facilities had more cases and more deaths per capita than the public facilities.

 

In BC (we get a lot of data from the government) the median ages reported out for cases, hospitalization and deaths were interesting I thought.

Median age for cases - 50 years old

Median age for hospitalizations - 69 years old

Median age for deaths - 85 years old

[Guest]

At least one positive is now walking around spreading it.

I think you may have misunderstood what he said. He said that he was not tested in the first place, yet was falsely told he was positive.

Edited July 30, 2020 by Unicorn

[Guest]

Pay for a test? That's a strange and inefficient practice for a public health emergency.

...

I'm not saying that in general people should be paying for their Covid testing. The rapid testing is expensive and has limited availability, however. In general, people should avoid visiting nursing homes until the residents can be vaccinated, since all nursing home residents are at very high risk for hospitalization and death. I would make an exception for a person willing to assume responsibility for the costs involved. Clearly, I don't see how a nursing facility can allow dozens of people coming in daily with daily testing. The cost would be astronomical and there would have to be some way to ration the limited tests available.

[RealAvalon]

I'm not saying that in general people should be paying for their Covid testing. The rapid testing is expensive and has limited availability, however. In general, people should avoid visiting nursing homes until the residents can be vaccinated, since all nursing home residents are at very high risk for hospitalization and death. I would make an exception for a person willing to assume responsibility for the costs involved. Clearly, I don't see how a nursing facility can allow dozens of people coming in daily with daily testing. The cost would be astronomical and there would have to be some way to ration the limited tests available.

A test is much cheaper than a hospitalization. Prevention is always cheaper.

[Guest]

A test is much cheaper than a hospitalization. Prevention is always cheaper.

I think you may have misunderstood what I'm suggesting. What I'm suggesting is no test ---> no visit. That is what is currently happening. Visitors are not being allowed. Period. What I'm suggesting, is that an exception should be allowed for someone willing to take responsibility for the cost of a rapid (15 minute) test.

[RealAvalon]

I think you may have misunderstood what I'm suggesting. What I'm suggesting is no test ---> no visit. That is what is currently happening. Visitors are not being allowed. Period. What I'm suggesting, is that an exception should be allowed for someone willing to take responsibility for the cost of a rapid (15 minute) test.

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. Having to pay for a test (deemed necessary for public health) is stupid.

[+ honcho]

I went with a friend to a drive-thru test facility here in Chicago. We were told the wait would be 30 minutes. After 90 minutes we gave up and left. Five days later I got a phone call saying I was covid-19 positive. I laughed at the caller and hung up

At least one positive is now walking around spreading it.

I think you may have misunderstood what he said. He said that he was not tested in the first place, yet was falsely told he was positive.

 

It's always dangerous to put words into somebody's mouth, what I think @SirBIllybob was saying is not that @chirob is spreading it, but whoever @chirob's test was mixed up for is. I do think @chirob should have stayed on the line long enough to tell them that their records got messed up.

[RealAvalon]

It's always dangerous to put words into somebody's mouth, what I think @SirBIllybob was saying is not that @chirob is spreading it, but whoever @chirob's test was mixed up for is. I do think @chirob should have stayed on the line long enough to tell them that their records got messed up.

You could be a detective. Now that you've explained it, the misunderstanding is clear.

[xyz48B]

I went with a friend to a drive-thru test facility here in Chicago. We were told the wait would be 30 minutes. After 90 minutes we gave up and left. Five days later I got a phone call saying I was covid-19 positive. I laughed at the caller and hung up

I’ve heard similar things before. The whole testing situation in this country is a debacle. There has to be a more efficient way to this.

 

Imagine fighting a war and everyone was expected to use their own weapons and foot the bill. The whole point of a national government is to pool resources in times like these.

[SirBillybob]

It's always dangerous to put words into somebody's mouth, what I think @SirBIllybob was saying is not that @chirob is spreading it, but whoever @chirob's test was mixed up for is. I do think @chirob should have stayed on the line long enough to tell them that their records got messed up.

Correct, that’s what I meant. One test feedback error’s ripple effect could have worse consequences down the line than, say, a surgeon designating the wrong side with a marker preparatory to an inguinal hernia repair.

Edited July 30, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[Guest]

It's always dangerous to put words into somebody's mouth, what I think @SirBIllybob was saying is not that @chirob is spreading it, but whoever @chirob's test was mixed up for is. I do think @chirob should have stayed on the line long enough to tell them that their records got messed up.

Well, if he didn't get tested in the first place, there were no tests to mix up. Just faulty software. But that's why I said "may have."

[+ honcho]

Well, if he didn't get tested in the first place, there were no tests to mix up. Just faulty software. But that's why I said "may have."

 

I think there was one actual test was was positive and it was not @chirob, but that there was an entry in the database that was made when he entered the line, which you could call an (incomplete) "record". I think it is much more likely in this case that it isn't faulty software, but that somebody entering the wrong record number (@chirob's) associated with test media actually taken from an infected person. If the testing staff had been notified of the error, then they might have tried all the numbers which were off by one digit from @chirob's record number to see which of those were lacking results and given a warning. No guarantee of success in finding who was actually positive, but a better chance than in the situation where @chirob hangs up on them and doesn't let them know of their error.

[Guest]

I think there was one actual test was was positive and it was not @chirob, but that there was an entry in the database that was made when he entered the line, which you could call an (incomplete) "record". I think it is much more likely in this case that it isn't faulty software, but that somebody entering the wrong record number (@chirob's) associated with test media actually taken from an infected person. If the testing staff had been notified of the error, then they might have tried all the numbers which were off by one digit from @chirob's record number to see which of those were lacking results and given a warning. No guarantee of success in finding who was actually positive, but a better chance than in the situation where @chirob hangs up on them and doesn't let them know of their error.

In all my years as a physician, I don't think I've ever encountered one patient's labs being switched with another. Patients are all identified by name and birthday, and asked to verify the label. What happened in chirob's case we can only speculate about.

[+ honcho]

In all my years as a physician, I don't think I've ever encountered one patient's labs being switched with another. Patients are all identified by name and birthday, and asked to verify the label. What happened in chirob's case we can only speculate about.

 

Indeed, I am speculating. When you look at the news reports, see lines of hundreds of cars, folks in full PPE giving nasal swabs through open car windows (I would assume in fairly rapid succession), and writing numbers on clipboards, it would seem to me that this is very much different than the lab proceedures than you've experienced in all your years of being a physician, and different from all the lab testing situations I've been in over my many years as a patient. I reiterate my position that it is more likely that a number was incorrectly written or keyed-in by a human, than that there was a fluke in the software.

 

I know damn well that any software written by humans contain errors (having made my living for 40 years as a computer programmer),

but I also know that the old adage "garbage-in, garbage-out" is the source of many more computer flubs of this sort than randomly picking a wrong association out of a database.

[Guest]

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid-19-reinfection-antibodies-immunity?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=owned&utm_term=covid&utm_content=2020-07-31

[marylander1940]

Obesity plays role in severe COVID-19 illness among kids

 

I'm not surprised at all by this. I guess this might add fire to all the conspiracy theories about Covid-19 being created to kill poor people if we think child obesity in America is always a clear sign of poverty.

 

For the record, I'm not endorsing that conspiracy theory.

[mike carey]

Here's a video clip on some of the genomic analysis being done on the outbreaks in two Australian states and New Zealand.

[MEDIA=twitter]1295556024502374400[/MEDIA]

As an aside, the presenter in the video is the father of Axios journalist Jonathan Swan.

[RealAvalon]

Obesity plays role in severe COVID-19 illness among kids

 

I'm not surprised at all by this. I guess this might add fire to all the conspiracy theories about Covid-19 being created to kill poor people if we think child obesity in America is always a clear sign of poverty.

 

For the record, I'm not endorsing that conspiracy theory.

This was one of the background demographics between BC and Washington State regarding mortality rates. BC has a 19% obesity rate and Washington's is 29%

[marylander1940]

This was one of the background demographics between BC and Washington State regarding mortality rates. BC has a 19% obesity rate and Washington's is 29%

 

Unfortunately the current First Lady has discontinued the "Let's move campaign" started by Michelle Obama that prevented SO many kids from becoming obese.

[Guest]

...

I'm not surprised at all by this. I guess this might add fire to all the conspiracy theories about Covid-19 being created to kill poor people if we think child obesity in America is always a clear sign of poverty.

...

While obese children are more likely to need to be hospitalized, deaths from Covid-19 are extremely rare in children. Childhood obesity is frightening for more important reasons. Large numbers of these children are going to need liver transplants due to fatty liver, which I see often, even sometimes before the teen years, and most of these obese children end up having other problems which seriously impair their lives, such as knee problems, back problems, diabetes, and heart problems.

[marylander1940]

While obese children are more likely to need to be hospitalized, deaths from Covid-19 are extremely rare in children. Childhood obesity is frightening for more important reasons. Large numbers of these children are going to need liver transplants due to fatty liver, which I see often, even sometimes before the teen years, and most of these obese children end up having other problems which seriously impair their lives, such as knee problems, back problems, diabetes, and heart problems.

 

Yes, they're less likely to die but if they require being hospitalized they'll get beds away from others seen as less likely to survive therefore increasing the mortality rate.

 

I agree with you about our lack of responsibility as a nation when it comes to how to raise our own kids with a sedentary behavior.

 

 

An old video from a former more libertarian PM.

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by marylander1940

[Guest]

I just read a recent article in the Journal of the American Medical Association which summarized recent knowledge/scientific studies regarding how Covid-19 is transmitted. The article, written by Michael Klompas, MD, MPH from the Harvard Medical School (volume 324, #5, page 441) concludes that it seems to be spread by droplets, rather than aerosol-based transmission. "The balance of evidence...seems inconsistent with aerosol-based transmission of SARS-CoV-2, particularly in well-ventilated spaces. What this means in practice is that keeping 6 feet apart from other people and wearing medical masks, high-quality cloth masks, or face shields when it's not possible to be 6 feet apart (for both source control and respiratory protection) should be adequate to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (in addition to adequate hand hygiene, environmental cleansing, and optimizing indoor ventilation)."

doi:10.1001/jama.2020.12458

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768396

[Luv2play]

I just read a recent article in the Journal of the American Medical Association which summarized recent knowledge/scientific studies regarding how Covid-19 is transmitted. The article, written by Michael Klompas, MD, MPH from the Harvard Medical School (volume 324, #5, page 441) concludes that it seems to be spread by droplets, rather than aerosol-based transmission. "The balance of evidence...seems inconsistent with aerosol-based transmission of SARS-CoV-2, particularly in well-ventilated spaces. What this means in practice is that keeping 6 feet apart from other people and wearing medical masks, high-quality cloth masks, or face shields when it's not possible to be 6 feet apart (for both source control and respiratory protection) should be adequate to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (in addition to adequate hand hygiene, environmental cleansing, and optimizing indoor ventilation)."

doi:10.1001/jama.2020.12458

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768396

This is consistent with what we were being told three months ago. The aerosol-based transmission theory gained some traction later but seems to be still a tentative theory. Certainly if droplets are the main source, then the steps we are all taking are good to minimize the spread of the virus.

[Guest]

From today's New York Times:

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[TD]

Researchers discovered the strongest evidence yet that

overcoming the coronavirus grants immunity from reinfection. According to a new study, a fishing vessel carrying 122 crew members returned to Seattle after an outbreak onboard. More than 100 sailors tested positive, but the three who had antibodies at the start of the trip remained virus-free.

[/TD]

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[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD]

“A lot of people, when they see this are like, ‘Oh come on, it could be due to random chance,’” one virologist told The Times. But in fact, the likelihood that those three sailors were randomly unaffected was incredibly small.

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[Guest]

Interesting article I saw re. the Swedish experiment today:

https://fee.org/articles/sweden-s-actual-covid-19-results-compared-to-what-modelers-predicted-in-april/amp

"Total COVID-19 deaths in Sweden stand at 5,700, nearly 90,000 less than modelers predicted. Hospitals were never overrun. Daily deaths in Sweden have slowed to a crawl. The health agency reports no new ICU admissions."