More interesting data regarding Covid

[SirBillybob]

Interestingly, 3 of the top 8 states surging out of all states&territories are in the top 4 for dry weather by full year. The flu (the SARS-CoV-2 comparator being most used) may like low humidity at any temperature and relatively but moderate higher temperature irrespective of humidity, all confounded by whether the weather regionally has a true polarized seasonality. (But I think it is a coincidence for this pandemic and population compliance with science is the overriding factor.)

 

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Edited June 22, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[+ sync]

Paranoid view of their government (as you call it) is people believing without proof that our democratically-elected president is being controlled by a foreign government ?

"Love is blind."

[SirBillybob]

One could cherry-pick weather and validate weather as a factor in the Americas outside of other contextual variables. Take Ontario/Quebec versus Chile, contenders for the two most seasonally polarized and temporally opposite by season. I isolate the 2 provinces as they hold the majority of Canadian cases, the pop-adjusted totals approach Chile’s the most, and the larger the pop proportion infected the more meaningful substantial changes in new case trend. The population differential is merely about 10% and north-south latitude differentials are not terrible discrepant.

 

Pandemic commenced at respective Equinox for each. Canada curve starts to drop following peak about May 6th (Equinox-Solstice midpoint) and Chile curve precipitously rises at that point. Ont\Qc doing its best ever at Solstice and Chile skyrocketing at theirs, even controlling for their large retroactive data-dump mid-June. That spike anomaly simply reinforces the notion that Chile and the 2 Canadian provinces were more neck-and-neck than otherwise appears over the dates prior to greater weather polarization (not to be confused with Geo-polar).

 

BUT HERE IS THE KICKER:

 

If it relates to weather, Canada could surge at the midpoint next to August, in other words early November. If mirror-imaged against Chile’s trend, by our holiday season this translates to 8 times Ontario’s peak seen in May and 4 times Quebec’s at that time.

 

All I want for Christmas is a hazmat suit.

 

——-

 

Does Argentina corroborate the pattern? Yes, to a degree. Was low for a long time but steadily though less steeply increasing since the early May seasonal mid-point, and now criss-crossed above overall Canada new case rates.

Edited June 22, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[SirBillybob]

It appears that Germany’s 5-day trend shows it has lost gains accruing up to 4 weeks ago, with a current reproduction rate of 2.88 that portends a case rate exceeding that which occurred at the introduction of relaxed restrictions in early May based on a protracted period of case reduction.

 

Portugal has been steadily increasing to twice its new case rate of a month ago.

Edited June 22, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[+ sniper]

A factor that could possibly mitigate the severity of the disease is Vitamin D levels. People in the South are far less likely to be Vitamin D deficient, and there's a correlation between Vitamin D level and response to respiratory infection in general. So Florida could wind up with a lower death rate not because of anything they did.

[SirBillybob]

The D supp research results expected first should be quite soon, likely July, in France where the study commenced in mid-April when daily new case rates were still high and facilitated recruitment.

[+ keroscenefire]

A factor that could possibly mitigate the severity of the disease is Vitamin D levels. People in the South are far less likely to be Vitamin D deficient, and there's a correlation between Vitamin D level and response to respiratory infection in general. So Florida could wind up with a lower death rate not because of anything they did.

 

I'm curious if part of it is also how active the population is outside in the summer in some of these sun-belt states. When I lived in Texas, people actually seldom went outside in the summer because it is so hot and humid. I didn't have a car so had no choice but to bike or take transit everywhere and it sucked for months. But people who had cars would literally drive them to the convenience store on the corner rather than walk outside a block in the Texas heat. I hear Arizona is the same, but Florida may be is a little different just because of the popularity of beaches and the ocean breezes maybe make it a little more tolerable (although I've never been to the sunshine state myself).

 

I'm almost thinking the rise in cases in these hot sunbelt states may be because it's summer. People really do stay inside more and enjoy the air conditioning rather than be outside in the hot, humid weather. It's actually the winter when people go outside more. July the parks are mostly empty but in January they are full. And these states are south enough, that probably there is enough sun for a good dose of vitamin D even in the winter.

[+ sniper]

The D supp research results expected first should be quite soon, likely July, in France where the study commenced in mid-April when daily new case rates were still high and facilitated recruitment.

It wouldn't surprise me if it's more a long-term benefit rather than taking it upon getting the illness so the study may not say much.

[+ Charlie]

This morning it has been announced that at least four of the pro tennis players in that Adria Tournament that I have referenced in previous posts in this thread have tested positive, including world #1 Novak Djokovic and his wife. They not only played the tournament with crowded stands of spectators and no CoVid restrictions at all on court, they also socialized in public in Belgrade and Zadar. It makes the very strict conditions that the USTA is demanding that players and their entourages adhere to at the US Open in NYC look more reasonable.

 

Croatia depends on tourism for almost a quarter of its economy, and they thought that holding the tournament in Zadar, a beautiful seacoast city, and televising it, showcasing the lack of CoVid restrictions, would encourage foreign tourists to return this summer. Bad idea.

[SirBillybob]

It wouldn't surprise me if it's more a long-term benefit rather than taking it upon getting the illness so the study may not say much.

 

This is how I understand Vitamin D in general and in Covid-2 context, as it pertains to my own supplementation at my age and considering I take no medications imposing interaction that may influence bioavailability. Take standard supplementation to mitigate hypovitaminosis yet avoid hypervitaminosis and over-tolerance. The instant I think I might be getting sick, add a megadose that is considered safe over a short term. The rapid increased saturation might offset things such as the ‘cytokine storm’ we hear about. Adjust according to upcoming findings.

Edited June 23, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[Guest]

This is how I understand Vitamin D in general and in Covid-2 context, as it pertains to my own supplementation at my age and considering I take no medications imposing interaction that may influence bioavailability. Take standard supplementation to mitigate hypovitaminosis yet avoid hypervitaminosis and over-tolerance. The instant I think I might be getting sick, add a megadose that is considered safe over a short term. The rapid increased saturation might offset things such as the ‘cytokine storm’ we hear about. Adjust according to upcoming findings.

If one wants to correct vitamin D deficiency fairly quickly, it is safe to take 50,000 units once a week for four doses (4 weeks). If one takes just the usual amount that one needs to supplement to get to normal levels, typically about 2000 units a day, it can take months. I get nervous prescribing it this way, however, as many, maybe even most, of my patients are poorly educated and have trouble understanding simple directions, and could continue taking it even though I put no refills and write on the directions "Take one per week for 4 weeks then stop." The unscrupulous pharmacies will often put a refill request through, although the course of therapy is clearly over, and if I'm out when the refill request comes through, a colleague will often OK the refill. I haven't heard of other medications reducing bioavailability of vitamin D, though you do want to take it with some food with fat in it so that it can be absorbed.

Why death rates are falling although "cases" are rising is still not understood at this time. Whether it's due to the climate/UV light/humidity, changes in the virus itself, vitamin D levels, something else, or a combination of these factors isn't known. We have to keep a close eye on the statistics and see what's happening. Also, it would be good to do more population studies to look at general antibody levels in the community. The only place I know of that canvassed the populace to look for antibody levels was NYC, and it was at 20% there. There could have been tons of asymptomatic "cases" that we know nothing about.

[+ sniper]

There's also simply that most people now are doing SOME measure of distancing, so the average initial exposure and viral dose is likely lower.

[+ keroscenefire]

Why death rates are falling although "cases" are rising is still not understood at this time. Whether it's due to the climate/UV light/humidity, changes in the virus itself, vitamin D levels, something else, or a combination of these factors isn't known. We have to keep a close eye on the statistics and see what's happening. Also, it would be good to do more population studies to look at general antibody levels in the community. The only place I know of that canvassed the populace to look for antibody levels was NYC, and it was at 20% there. There could have been tons of asymptomatic "cases" that we know nothing about.

 

We do have to remember that deaths are a lagging indicator. The spike in cases have mostly been in the last couple weeks so it could very well be that deaths will catch up eventually. My friend who is a hospital administrator said they would have COVID hospitalized patients for weeks or even a month before they passed.

 

Another reason why deaths may not be as high is that for the most part hospitals are better prepared for the influx and we have new treatments (Remesdivir and now dexamethasone) and a greater understanding of how/when to use respirators. It's unfortunate for the poor souls who were the first to get hospitalized with COVID. I think doctors just didn't know how to treat this new disease. Now we have a better understanding and better treatments to prevent many deaths. Now if hospital capacity gets crunched....

[Guest]

There's also simply that most people now are doing SOME measure of distancing, so the average initial exposure and viral dose is likely lower.

That's probably not a major factor. While there are exceptions, for the most part either the viral load is great enough to cause an infection, or it isn't. Once the virus is in the body, large quantities of virus will be manufactured in each cell, so that will be the major source.

[RealAvalon]

There's also simply that most people now are doing SOME measure of distancing, so the average initial exposure and viral dose is likely lower.

Yes, that probably does help. Social distancing, wearing a mask and washing hands have proven effective to limit viral spread.

[RealAvalon]

Another reason why deaths may not be as high is that for the most part hospitals are better prepared for the influx and we have new treatments (Remesdivir and now dexamethasone) and a greater understanding of how/when to use respirators. It's unfortunate for the poor souls who were the first to get hospitalized with COVID. I think doctors just didn't know how to treat this new disease. Now we have a better understanding and better treatments to prevent many deaths. Now if hospital capacity gets crunched....

Good point. There has been a lot learned about how to care for COVID patients, not using a full mask to provide oxygen for example, that improves the survivorship. The falling COVID death rate, may be similar to the declining murder rate in the 90's. It wasn't that gun violence declined, just that survivorship from the shooting pandemic improved, due to improved medical interventions.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-newyork-crime/even-as-shootings-rise-murder-rate-falls-in-new-york-city-idUSKBN0EL27520140610

[SirBillybob]

The current global ratio of death to recovery, based on closed cases (lately about half all cases), is unchanged from the average of 5-month duration of tracking so far. Granted, it has dropped steadily from April 9th but an earlier equal shift also occurred over a much shorter duration of 2 weeks for an obviously much smaller cumulative tally within a comparatively narrow geographical field.

 

The interacting variables implicated in those two iterations of steadily declining fatality surely differ or differ in relative influence where they have relevance in common. That the current trend resembles an earlier trend has me a little less likely to scratch my head.

 

The timeline ratio curve looks a lot less dramatic than the trending histogram graph disconnect of daily case and daily death tracking. This global recovery/death graph is naturally smoothed relative to many individual nations that have regular unexplained anomalies in the progression of closed-case outcome.

 

Additionally, many of the nations driving the increasing new case tally may be more likely to under-report related mortality in conjunction with a steady incline in infection rates (as I think others mentioned).

Edited June 23, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[RealAvalon]

There's an article out in the Nature magazine, reporting out on a study which indicates that the anti-bodies for COVID may only last for two months in the human body. It's one study, and more work needs to be done obviously. If those findings were confirmed by other studies, that would have huge implications for any notion of "immunity".

[SirBillybob]

In Canada, 37,000 currently available blood donation samples as well as samples from 10,000 home-administered kits randomly distributed to Canadians registered in a large polling database will be analyzed for antibodies this summer, all part of a 2-year one million person target. As this should control for the risk-prompted or symptom-based elective testing to date, I am glad that we should be getting some better true incidence numbers sooner than I thought.

 

With an established confidence range the true prevalence, reproduction, and fatality proportion can then be much more accurately estimated whatever the new case trend going forward.

 

It will be interesting to see how upcoming ramping up of antibody testing will be incorporated into nation-comparative epidemiological graphs. Obviously not all 200ish will be on the same playing field for funding or timeline. Much of the global data on incidence and outcomes will become meaningless.

 

Canadians’ individual positive results will not be revealed to them.

Edited June 24, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[+ Lucky]

California Governor Gavin Newsom today said that the high increases in new cases of COVID make it more imperative that people over 65 with an underlying condition stay at home. He did not offer to get my groceries.

[RealAvalon]

California Governor Gavin Newsom today said that the high increases in new cases of COVID make it more imperative that people over 65 with an underlying condition stay at home. He did not offer to get my groceries.

If he did, I would suggest shirtless.

[+ sniper]

I've met him in person and he is small framed and rail thin, I suspect he's one of those people who looks a lot better in clothes.

[+ pepa_e_mango]

Four months ago today!

[MEDIA=twitter]1276485159378997250[/MEDIA]

[xyz48B]

https://apple.news/A5QgRGrAjSJKo2j1yikMPRA

 

News today... New Jersey halts reopening restaurants scheduled for Thursday. NYC likely going to do the same. Despite numbers that are fine. This is exactly what I suspected would happen. Fear. They aren’t allowing science to dictate what they do, despite saying they will follow data...They’re allowing fear of “what if...” THAT’s what bothers me. They say “data” will determine what we do but it’s not the data. It’s what’s happening in FL or AZ and they’re like, “what if that happens here?!”

 

It’s data to implement measures but not data to lift them. I it just frustrates me. Politicians say one thing, we believe them, and then they just decide to do something different. Because even if the numbers are good, now the governor is like “JK. Different plans.”

 

Have we forgotten all the measures started out of concern for overwhelming healthcare systems? Now it’s become avoid the virus totally. To avoid the virus totally, it’s obvious life must stop. You can’t have any semblance of normal day-to-day life if no virus is the goal. You can if it’s about not overwhelming the healthcare system. We have to decide what our goal is and be honest about it.

[xyz48B]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/30/883703403/as-coronavirus-surges-how-much-testing-does-your-state-need-to-subdue-the-virus

 

This article highlights the difference between mitigation and suppression. I don’t recall goal being suppression back in March or April. Every other word out of Fauci’s mouth then was “mitigation.”

 

The less ambitious target is intended to achieve what public health experts call "mitigation." This means keeping the size of current outbreaks from growing; this approach requires enough testing to get to 10% or fewer positive tests...The second, more ambitious set of targets is intended to achieve suppression, a strategy many public health leaders are now calling for. Suppression means greatly reducing new infections and keeping them low enough to safely open public life again.

I can remember Fauci saying we needed to get the positive test rate under 10% to reopen. Same with Cuomo. But now the article says suppression is what we need? So what is it?

 

Even still, what figure counts as suppression? The virus isn’t going away. (Akin to unemployment. You always have some people unemployed. 5% unemployed is considered full employment.) In Massachusetts, we have daily a positive case rate between 1.5-3%. Is that suppressed? Rates are similar across the Northeast.

 

The graphs shown on cable news saying cases are on the rise don’t necessarily show an accurate picture. On the rise from 10% or from 1%? If the 7-day rolling average goes from 2% to 2.5%, that’s “on the rise,” but it’s not the same as going from 10% to 15%.

 

Data is data, but sometimes you have to look more closely to see what it’s actually saying. And don’t get me started on the over used term “spike.” What constitutes an inevitable uptick and what constitutes a spike?