More interesting data regarding Covid

[Luv2play]

Interesting article I saw re. the Swedish experiment today:

https://fee.org/articles/sweden-s-actual-covid-19-results-compared-to-what-modelers-predicted-in-april/amp

"Total COVID-19 deaths in Sweden stand at 5,700, nearly 90,000 less than modelers predicted. Hospitals were never overrun. Daily deaths in Sweden have slowed to a crawl. The health agency reports no new ICU admissions."

Interesting, as earlier reports had indicated it was a disaster. And I suppose their economy has not taken the same hit as those countries that completely shut down except for essential services. The other benefit was that the Swedes generally had a more pleasant summer than most others labouring under unnatural restrictions to normal socializing.

[Populist Fury]

Sweden ??

[mike carey]

For the first time in a while, I've seen some new thoughts on the manner of spread of the virus. The gist of it is that we have not properly understood the nature of how it infects new cases. The article is pay-walled on the Atlantic, but the site allows a limited number of free articles each month.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

 

For me the key conclusions are that the models of transmission that epidemiologists used from the outset in the pandemic were based on the way that influenza behaves, and that it is becoming apparent that SARS-CoV-2 works differently. Influenza spreads predictably, with a consistent chain of infection from one case to the next, with the virus being equally likely to spread from each case. This means that the R number is a valid representation of the likely speed of spread of an outbreak.

 

SARS-CoV-2 spreads differently. Most of the infections arise from a very small proportion of cases, in something that is analogous to the 80/20 rule. It spreads in clusters from super-spreader events: some infected people will infect a large number of others while most won't pass the virus on at all. The R number doesn't provide a useful indication of the spread of the virus.

 

This goes some way to explaining why the spread of the pandemic has not been predictable. Countries and regions with similar conditions had different patterns of infection. The measures that have been taken to stop its spread have generally worked but the instances where the virus has evaded them seem to have been few but each caused a large number of new cases rather than many with each causing a few (as would happen with influenza). In a sense it there was an element of chance in an individual being the source of further spread. In an extreme illustration, as few regions in Italy had most of the cases and deaths, while other regions with similar cultural and demographic conditions and similar health services had few.

 

This is significant for how it affects contact tracing. With influenza it makes sense for health authorities to track and trace people a patient has been in contact with while they were infectious because most cases will be transmitted to other people. With most cases of SARS-CoV-2 not being passed on to others there is less value in tracking forward to each patient's contacts, most won't have it. What is needed is backwards tracing. When you know that cases occur in clusters, there's more value in finding where each infection came from as that person will most likely have infected a number of other people at the same event.

 

This seems highly significant. It provides some insights into the sorts of circumstances where clusters are likely to arise—crowded noisy indoor events, choirs, closely packed bars, Rose Garden events—and to prioritise them for restrictions, with less emphasis in settings that are less likely to be the source of infection spread.

Edited October 23, 2020 by mike carey

[Guest]

Latest study on immunity after infection:

2020-10-sars-cov-antibodies-immunity.amp

[orville]

Wow, this Coronavirus doesn't want to let go!

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-mink-idUSKBN27K1X6

[orville]

And PLEASE get your Vitamin D. No, not Vitamin D*ck, Vitamin D.

 

Vitamin D has been proven to be a key factor for your survival if you get severely ill.

So it might also be a key factor to not fall severly ill. This of course had to be leaked by the medical community.

It didn't receive any attention of Big Pharma because they have ZERO interest in people curing themselves.

 

 

[jeezifonly]

Wow, this Coronavirus doesn't want to let go!

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-mink-idUSKBN27K1X6

 

Poor little minkies...

But viruses do not have opinions or wants, they have only one motivation- survival.

A better summary that actually places the “want” where it belongs:

 

Wow, this country has a lot of stupid people who don’t want to understand how viral transmission goes!!

 

... and so we have our course for the next few months charted by lunatics, once again. ?

[Guest]

Poor little minkies...

 

[Guest]

We can stop the scrubbing now...

covid-cleaning.html

 

Scientists who initially warned about contaminated surfaces now say that the virus spreads primarily through inhaled droplets, and that there is little to no evidence that deep cleaning mitigates the threat indoors

...

All over the world, workers are soaping, wiping and fumigating surfaces with an urgent sense of purpose: to fight the coronavirus. But scientists increasingly say that there is little to no evidence that contaminated surfaces can spread the virus. In crowded indoor spaces like airports, they say, the virus that is exhaled by infected people and that lingers in the air is a much greater threat.

 

Hand washing with soap and water for 20 seconds — or sanitizer in the absence of soap — is still encouraged to stop the virus’s spread. But scrubbing surfaces does little to mitigate the virus threat indoors, experts say, and health officials are being urged to focus instead on improving ventilation and filtration of indoor air.

 

“In my opinion, a lot of time, energy and money is being wasted on surface disinfection and, more importantly, diverting attention and resources away from preventing airborne transmission,” said Dr. Kevin P. Fennelly, a respiratory infection specialist with the United States National Institutes of Health.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Unicorn

[+ Charlie]

I'm glad I didn't buy a lot of handsanitizer and wipes.

[gallahadesquire]

We need more toilet paper!

[+ WilliamM]

 

From the famous Broadway show "Guys and Dolls". By the great song writer Frank Loessor

[Guest]

Remdesivir may not even be helpful after all.....

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2023184

"At 405 hospitals in 30 countries, 11,330 adults underwent randomization; 2750 were assigned to receive remdesivir, 954 to hydroxychloroquine, 1411 to lopinavir (without interferon), 2063 to interferon (including 651 to interferon plus lopinavir), and 4088 to no trial drug. Adherence was 94 to 96% midway through treatment, with 2 to 6% crossover. In total, 1253 deaths were reported (median day of death, day 8; interquartile range, 4 to 14). The Kaplan–Meier 28-day mortality was 11.8% (39.0% if the patient was already receiving ventilation at randomization and 9.5% otherwise). Death occurred in 301 of 2743 patients receiving remdesivir and in 303 of 2708 receiving its control (rate ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.11; P=0.50), in 104 of 947 patients receiving hydroxychloroquine and in 84 of 906 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.59; P=0.23), in 148 of 1399 patients receiving lopinavir and in 146 of 1372 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.25; P=0.97), and in 243 of 2050 patients receiving interferon and in 216 of 2050 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.39; P=0.11). No drug definitely reduced mortality, overall or in any subgroup, or reduced initiation of ventilation or hospitalization duration."

[gallahadesquire]

The NEJM article allows access to the Phase 1 clinical trial on duration of mRNA vaccine. Interesting https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195?query=recirc_mostViewed_railB_article

[Luv2play]

Remdesivir may not even be helpful after all.....

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2023184

"At 405 hospitals in 30 countries, 11,330 adults underwent randomization; 2750 were assigned to receive remdesivir, 954 to hydroxychloroquine, 1411 to lopinavir (without interferon), 2063 to interferon (including 651 to interferon plus lopinavir), and 4088 to no trial drug. Adherence was 94 to 96% midway through treatment, with 2 to 6% crossover. In total, 1253 deaths were reported (median day of death, day 8; interquartile range, 4 to 14). The Kaplan–Meier 28-day mortality was 11.8% (39.0% if the patient was already receiving ventilation at randomization and 9.5% otherwise). Death occurred in 301 of 2743 patients receiving remdesivir and in 303 of 2708 receiving its control (rate ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.11; P=0.50), in 104 of 947 patients receiving hydroxychloroquine and in 84 of 906 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.59; P=0.23), in 148 of 1399 patients receiving lopinavir and in 146 of 1372 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.25; P=0.97), and in 243 of 2050 patients receiving interferon and in 216 of 2050 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.39; P=0.11). No drug definitely reduced mortality, overall or in any subgroup, or reduced initiation of ventilation or hospitalization duration."

What about the treatment with monocanol (sp?) antibodies? I read today in the NYT that it was producing good results (Trump and Giuliani both received it).

[Guest]

What about the treatment with monocanol (sp?) antibodies? I read today in the NYT that it was producing good results (Trump and Giuliani both received it).

I'm not sure that data has been published yet. The only way to tell if a treatment works is to do randomized clinical trials which are blinded, with some receiving treatment and some placebo, and no one knows which. The fact that two men in higher risk categories survived an infection doesn't mean the treatment has been adequately scrutinized. Early data seemed to show remdesivir worked, but it now seems to be bunk.

[Luv2play]

I'm not sure that data has been published yet. The only way to tell if a treatment works is to do randomized clinical trials which are blinded, with some receiving treatment and some placebo, and no one knows which. The fact that two men in higher risk categories survived an infection doesn't mean the treatment has been adequately scrutinized. Early data seemed to show remdesivir worked, but it now seems to be bunk.

It was interesting that Giuliani was offered a trial participation for the treatment but turned it down because he was afraid of getting the placebo. He asked for Trump’s help in getting the drug, which is in short supply. Some hospitals are using a lottery system to make allocations of their limited supplies. If Trump likes you, you go to the head of the line.

[samhexum]

Boston medical conference linked to as many as 300K COVID-19 cases

 

A team of scientists using genetic sequencing found that between 205,000 and 300,000 coronavirus cases across the US are linked to a “superspreader” medical conference in Boston in late February.

 

The conference was previously thought to have been associated with about 20,000 cases in the Boston metro area, but the researchers say it actually spread much further after about 100 people caught the virus at the gathering, CBS News reported.

 

Through Nov. 1, the genetic marker found in the strain of the virus linked to the conference was found in 51,000 cases around Boston.

 

It also spread to other locations where conference attendees returned, including in Florida, where 29 percent of the conference-linked cases ended up; Indiana and North Carolina. The strain of virus was found as far away as Australia and Slovakia, according to the research, published in the journal Science.

 

“We don’t think these strains had a propensity to spread more than any other,” said Jacob Lemieux, the study’s lead author. “We suspect that these types of events have been happening over and over again, and are major contributors to the propagation and spread of SARS-cov2 throughout the world.

 

Biogen in a statement said the pandemic has had a “very direct and personal impact” on the company and hoped the study would “continue to drive a better understanding of the transmission of this virus and efforts to address it.”

[jjkrkwood]

Boston medical conference linked to as many as 300K COVID-19 cases

 

A team of scientists using genetic sequencing found that between 205,000 and 300,000 coronavirus cases across the US are linked to a “superspreader” medical conference in Boston in late February.

 

The conference was previously thought to have been associated with about 20,000 cases in the Boston metro area, but the researchers say it actually spread much further after about 100 people caught the virus at the gathering, CBS News reported.

 

Through Nov. 1, the genetic marker found in the strain of the virus linked to the conference was found in 51,000 cases around Boston.

 

It also spread to other locations where conference attendees returned, including in Florida, where 29 percent of the conference-linked cases ended up; Indiana and North Carolina. The strain of virus was found as far away as Australia and Slovakia, according to the research, published in the journal Science.

 

“We don’t think these strains had a propensity to spread more than any other,” said Jacob Lemieux, the study’s lead author. “We suspect that these types of events have been happening over and over again, and are major contributors to the propagation and spread of SARS-cov2 throughout the world.

 

Biogen in a statement said the pandemic has had a “very direct and personal impact” on the company and hoped the study would “continue to drive a better understanding of the transmission of this virus and efforts to address it.”

 

I believe however that conference occured way back at the beginning of us knowing about the Pandemic in February ? However the results of the study were just released.

[mike carey]

Boston medical conference linked to as many as 300K COVID-19 cases

 

A team of scientists using genetic sequencing found that between 205,000 and 300,000 coronavirus cases across the US are linked to a “superspreader” medical conference in Boston in late February.

 

The conference was previously thought to have been associated with about 20,000 cases in the Boston metro area, but the researchers say it actually spread much further after about 100 people caught the virus at the gathering, CBS News reported.

 

Through Nov. 1, the genetic marker found in the strain of the virus linked to the conference was found in 51,000 cases around Boston.

 

It also spread to other locations where conference attendees returned, including in Florida, where 29 percent of the conference-linked cases ended up; Indiana and North Carolina. The strain of virus was found as far away as Australia and Slovakia, according to the research, published in the journal Science.

 

“We don’t think these strains had a propensity to spread more than any other,” said Jacob Lemieux, the study’s lead author. “We suspect that these types of events have been happening over and over again, and are major contributors to the propagation and spread of SARS-cov2 throughout the world.

 

Biogen in a statement said the pandemic has had a “very direct and personal impact” on the company and hoped the study would “continue to drive a better understanding of the transmission of this virus and efforts to address it.”

There's a subtle distinction that needs to be made in this story. The conference was the source for all of these cases, but it's not to blame for the scope of the spread. That is down to the local preventative measures taken in the places to which the conference delegates returned. If their measures were good there would have been fewer cases, but conversely if the conference hadn't happened, the areas that it affected badly would most likely have been seeded by another source of infection.

 

There has been a similar fallacy playing out here. Over 80% of Victoria's deaths in the second wave were in federally regulated aged care homes. The federal government blamed them on the state government, which managed the quarantine facilities from which the wave of infection had originated. It's true that that is where the infection came from, but the real problem was the failure of the federal government to ensure that measures to manage a wave of infection in the homes were in place. (There were no deaths in the smaller number of state regulated care homes.)

[samhexum]

Trump has been highlighting lots of really big numbers this week: New highs for the stock market. The 100-plus House members backing a lawsuit challenging his election loss. The nearly 75 million people who voted for him.

 

All the while, he's looked past other staggering and more consequential figures: The record numbers of coronavirus deaths, hospitalizations and new cases among the citizens of the nation he leads.

 

On Friday, Trump's team blasted out a text with this strong, high-minded presidential message: “We will not bend. We will not break. We will never give in. We will never give up.”

 

But it was not a rallying cry to help shore up Americans sagging under the toll of a pandemic that on Wednesday alone killed more Americans than on D-Day or 9/11. It was part of a fundraising pitch tied to Senate races in Georgia and to Trump’s unsupported claims that Democrats are trying to “steal” the presidential election he lost.

Of Trump's tweets over the past week, 82 percent have been focused on the election and just 7 percent on the virus — almost all of those related to forthcoming vaccines — according to Factba.se, a data analytics company. Nearly a third of the president’s tweets on the election were flagged by Twitter for misinformation.

 

As he talks and tweets at length about the election he is futilely trying to subvert, the president is leaving Americans without a central figure to help them deal with their grief over loved-ones' deaths and the day-to-day danger of the pandemic that still rages. His strategy is to focus totally on the shiny object coming soon — the prospect of a vaccine.

 

Friday night, the the Food and Drug Administration gave the final go-ahead to a vaccine from Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech, launching emergency vaccinations in a bid to end the pandemic. But Trump's three-minute internet address hailing the vaccine made no mention of the toll the virus has taken.

 

Calvin Jillson, a presidential historian at Southern Methodist University, said Trump has proven himself unable or unwilling to muster the “normal and natural, falling-off-a-log simple presidential approach” that is called for in any moment of national grief or crisis.

 

“He simply doesn’t seem to have the emotional depth, the emotional reserves to feel what’s happening in the country and to respond to it in the way that any other president -- even those who’ve been fairly emotionally crippled -- would do,” Jillson said.

 

Trump did convene a summit this week to highlight his administration’s successful efforts to help hasten the development of coronavirus vaccines and prepare for their speedy distribution. And he spent part of Friday pressing federal authorities to authorize use of the first-up vaccine candidate from Pfizer.

 

At his summit, the president put heavy emphasis on the faster-than-expected development of the vaccines, calling it “an incredible success,” “a monumental national achievement,” “really amazing” and “somewhat of a miracle.” He's also claimed credit, though Pfizer developed its vaccine outside the administration's “Operation Warp Speed.”

 

In a passing nod to the pandemic's toll, Trump promised the coming vaccines would “quickly and dramatically reduce deaths and hospitalizations," adding that “we want to get back to normal.” But it will be months before most Americans have access to a vaccine.

 

Asked what message he had for Americans suffering great hardship as the holidays approach and the virus only gets worse, Trump's answer had an almost clinical tone.

“Yeah, well, CDC puts out their guidelines, and they're very important guidelines,” he said, “but I think this: I think that the vaccine was our goal.”

 

To focus otherwise would undercut Trump's goal of minimizing the national pain of the virus' toll and his claims that the danger will soon vanish.

 

Trump's successor, Joe Biden, on Friday answered that approach with a promise for greater presidential leadership. Of the virus, he said: “We can wish this away, but we need to face it.”

 

Jeff Shesol, a presidential historian and former speechwriter for President Bill Clinton, said Trump's failure to express empathy was a “personal pathology manifesting itself as political strategy.”

 

“It's not simply that he has decided not to express concern or sorrow, it's that he does not feel the sorrow,” Shesol said.

 

Ari Fleischer, who served as White House press secretary to President George W. Bush, said Trump has approached the virus in a "very mechanical, focus-on-the-vaccine kind of way” when people are also hungering for an emotional connection. That's hurt Trump politically, but it's true to his persona, Fleischer added.

 

“The president is a blunt force more than he’s an empathetic force,” Fleischer said. “To his credit, he doesn’t pretend. He is who he is. Most politicians would fake it."

 

The White House did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

 

It's not just Trump who is fazed by how best to acknowledge the toll of the virus.

 

The issue led to an unusually personal argument on the air Thursday at Fox News Channel, the favorite network for many of Trump’s supporters. Marie Harf, a commentator on the midday show “Outnumbered,” noted that 43 minutes into the show the previous day’s record-setting number of COVID deaths hadn’t been mentioned.

 

“We cannot lose sight of the tragedy that is unfolding every day in this country, in large part because people want to go about like normal and they don’t want to wear masks,” she said.

 

The show’s host, Harris Faulkner, called Harf’s remark offensive. “Keep your judgment someplace where you know you can fact-check it, because you can’t see my heart.”

 

Late-night TV hosts, too, took note of the scant acknowledgement of the unfolding tragedy.

 

In a lengthy monologue Thursday night, NBC “Late Night” host Seth Meyers faulted Trump and Republicans for continuing to focus on trying to overturn the long-settled election “as thousands of Americans die every day from a pandemic they clearly don’t care about."

[Guest]

Here are the latest data from California. We're doing great, especially in LA County, which has done a great job immunizing the vulnerable. Click on the link to the latest data. I was unable to import the graph with the data.

 

https://www.kcra.com/article/covid-19-california-maps-tiers-case-numbers-everything-else-you-need-to-know/34799742#