Coronavirus Numbers

[+ stevenkesslar]

Interesting data that documents the impact of social distancing and closing things down on saving lives.

Your Sacrifices are Saving Lives

Kinsa evidence comparing counties also shows that taking early and aggressive action can flatten the curve. See the graph below contrasting a county that was able to quickly begin restricting gatherings vs. one that took longer to do so.

 

[+ stevenkesslar]

Another very moving story dealing with the impact this has on the young.

 

This doctor says she felt like 38 going on 90.

 

[MEDIA=twitter]1247129769705177088[/MEDIA]

[+ sniper]

So, I just looked @ official Covid-19 numbers, & the worldwide death count so far is 67,999. May sound like a lot, but it's actually almost nothing when we consider the fact that world population is over 7 billion & close to 150,000 people die each & every day on average. People need to chillax & not allow the media's fearmongering get to them... keeping them living in constant fear of death.

 

A national shutdown won't do much at this point other than keep people prisoner in their own homes. Herd immunity is the answer.

WTF are you talking about? The reason the death count is low is precisely BECAUSE of the shelter in place orders. It's like saying PreP doesn't work because so many fewer people get HIV now it's not a big deal....

[+ azdr0710]

just three short months ago........the first news of the virus.........

 

https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/

 

and just two months ago.....

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by azdr0710

[+ tassojunior]

Amazing charts. Predicted peak death date in each state. Most are in coming days.

 

U.S. Coronavirus Outbreak: State-by-State Death Toll https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-where-is-the-us-on-the-curve/

[Populist Fury]

WTF are you talking about? The reason the death count is low is precisely BECAUSE of the shelter in place orders. It's like saying PreP doesn't work because so many fewer people get HIV now it's not a big deal....

 

 

Uhm no, two very different things. + I never said that social distancing isn't effective. The problem is the OTT hysteria & fearmongering in the media... it's as bad, or maybe even worse than back in the TERROR ALERT! days, when they wanted us to live in constant fear of terrorist attacks that never came after that initial one. I can't discuss politics here, but I think we all know what all that disgusting fearmongering led to in the end. People never think rationally when hysterical & in fear.

 

The other bigger problem is the kneecapping of the economy do to these lockdowns, which will ultimately end up affecting poor & working class people the most. The middle class will be hit hard too, many will probably end up losing their homes, etc, just like in the last economic crisis. It's possible that we end up with more death & suffering from these lockdown measures than from the actual virus itself in the end.

 

People forget that around 40,000 die in a regular flu season here in the U.S. alone. The vast majority of people dying from Covid-19 are 70+ & those with severe preexisting conditions. They should be the ones on lockdown, isolated from the rest of us. The rest of us in good health should be out there living our lives, working, going places, developing herd immunity, keeping the economy afloat. Locking everyone down & instituting $1,000 fines is a tyrannical, political, & emotional fear response.

[+ stevenkesslar]

The other bigger problem is the kneecapping of the economy do to these lockdowns, which will ultimately end up affecting poor & working class people the most. The middle class will be hit hard too, many will probably end up losing their homes, etc, just like in the last economic crisis. It's possible that we end up with more death & suffering from these lockdown measures than from the actual virus itself in the end.

 

Exactly. God you are smart @Corporate Shill!

 

12 NYPD members have died from suspected cases of coronavirus and nearly 20% of its uniformed workforce is out sick

 

Now let's do some simple math here and everybody will realize how @Corporate Shill is 100 % correct and everybody needs to step up a little bit. We are all being freaked out by needless fear which is actually a conspiracy when you think about it. We need to be way more worried about THE CONSPIRACY than about Coronavirus.

 

So in New York state right now there are 138,836 people who tested positive for COVID-19. Only 5,489 of them have died. That is nothing.

 

People forget that around 40,000 die in a regular flu season here in the U.S. alone

 

Exactly. The dead people in New York are like 10 % of flu seasons deaths. Why should anybody give a fuck? This is good for the economy!

 

So when you actually think smart about THE CONSPIRACY like @Corporate Shill the math is pretty simple. Those 138,836 people are maybe half of all New Yorkers infected by COVID-19. Many are mildly sick or even no symptoms. Because THIS IS NOTHING and all these fear mongerers won't admit that probably at least 1 % of New Yorkers are infected and EVERYTHING IS AWESOME IN NEW YORK other than fear mongerers trying to fuck up the economy.

 

Now do the math. If 1 % of New Yorkers are infected, the obviously good plan for the economy is to multiply that by 100. That way we have 100 % infected and we can just get on with it. Herd immunity and shit. Party and shit.

 

So instead of 12 dead NYPD, multiply by 100 and that maybe means 1200 dead NYPD. Who gives a shit! It's good for the economy. Those are really good numbers.

 

Better yet, if 20 % of the NYPD is out now, if we can stop being such scaredy cat wusses and get that herd immunity up from 1 % to maybe 10 % or 20 % or even 30 % we'll have like 100 % of the NYPD out or dead. That would be great for the economy! It doesn't matter if they are sick or just have an allergy maybe and are in quarantine or maybe are dead stacked up in a refrigerator truck. The important thing is that they are not working because they are sick or dead and that is good for the economy!

 

The vast majority of people dying from Covid-19 are 70+ & those with severe preexisting conditions.

 

Exactly. It is a known fact that lots of NYPD have pre-existing conditions and some of them are quite old.

 

 

Now we have all been through this before. We went through this on 9/11 when we lost a lot of NYPD like in that picture above. That was good for the economy, wasn't it? Did you all notice how the Dow is more than DOUBLE where it was around 9/11 so a few dead NYPD cops was not so bad for the economy was it?

 

A few of us that are smart are correctly worried about THE CONSPIRACY which is the real threat. But other than that 1200 dead NYPD and maybe the whole police force out with the sniffles or whatever is just no big deal and try to get this through your head: IT IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY!

 

The other bigger problem is the kneecapping of the economy do to these lockdowns

 

Exactly. God you are smart @Corporate Shill. Obviously these lockdowns are very bad for the economy and we'd have a much better economy with 1200 dead NYPD and the whole police work force out with the sniffles or whatever. Then business could go on as usual. Yeah maybe a few fire fighters or pizza joint workers would get sick or whatever. Maybe a doctor or two. But those are the ones with pre-existing conditions anyway we can't stop the economy just for a few fucked up people with pre-existing conditions now can we?

 

At Risk: Pre-Existing Conditions Could Affect 1 in 2 Americans

 

As many as 82 million Americans with employer-based coverage have a pre-existing condition, ranging from life-threatening illnesses like cancer to chronic conditions like diabetes, asthma, or heart disease.

 

When you actually look at the actual numbers you will understand we have nothing to worry about. Nothing!

 

God you are smart @Corporate Shill. How did you ever get to be so smart? We are lucky to have you here to point out that we need to be fighting against THE CONSPIRACY not COVID-19.

Edited April 7, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[+ stevenkesslar]

And now for an opposing point of view.

 

When I was looking at articles about the impact of COVID-19 on the NYPD, including the growing number that are seriously ill or dead, I ran across this very moving story about the value of one human life.

 

NYPD ‘twerk cop’ Michael Hance honored at gay officers celebration

 

 

NYPD Police Officer Michael Hance died on March 12, 2017 after battling 9/11-related cancer. He gained notoriety after he was caught on camera dancing with paradegoers at the 2015 Gay Pride Parade.(Twitter)

 

Once again, like on 9/11, New York's finest have shown that they are America's finest. Thank you to the doctors and nurses and police officers or New York City.

 

His dance moves made him an ally in blue to the city's LGBT community — and on Wednesday, he was remembered as a compassionate guardian angel.

 

Police Officer Michael Hance, who was nicknamed "the twerk cop" for his 12-second dance routine at the 2015 Gay Pride Parade, was posthumously honored by the NYPD's Gay Officers Action League at the department's Pride Celebration Wednesday.

The 44-year-old straight cop was widely praised after a cell-phone video showed him dancing, on duty and in uniform, with reveler Aaron Santis at the Manhattan Pride Parade.

 

The clip, dubbed "NYPD gets down during NYC pride" has been viewed more than 8.5 million times on YouTube.com.

 

"That simple act uplifted the city's spirits and delivered a message of inclusion and compassion," NYPD Commissioner James O'Neill said at the event, held at NYPD headquarters in downtown Manhattan.

Peter Hance called the ceremony bittersweet. His father, also named Peter, died June 10, three months after his brother's death.

 

"Michael was one of those guys. He just got along with everybody. It didn't matter," Hance said.

 

Hance worked tirelessly on the Ground Zero rescue and recovery efforts, his brother said. "He couldn't get it out of his head. He wanted to find every person," Hance said of his sibling. "He wanted to help everybody else and it cost him his life.... Michael was a good guy, and he loved being a cop."

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[+ tassojunior]

Speaking of #'s. Jack Dorsey of Twitter just gave 1/3 of his wealth to coronavirus work:

 

[MEDIA=twitter]1247622798555611138[/MEDIA]

Edited April 7, 2020 by tassojunior

[CuriousByNature]

Uhm no, two very different things. + I never said that social distancing isn't effective. The problem is the OTT hysteria & fearmongering in the media... it's as bad, or maybe even worse than back in the TERROR ALERT! days, when they wanted us to live in constant fear of terrorist attacks that never came after that initial one. I can't discuss politics here, but I think we all know what all that disgusting fearmongering led to in the end. People never think rationally when hysterical & in fear.

 

The other bigger problem is the kneecapping of the economy do to these lockdowns, which will ultimately end up affecting poor & working class people the most. The middle class will be hit hard too, many will probably end up losing their homes, etc, just like in the last economic crisis. It's possible that we end up with more death & suffering from these lockdown measures than from the actual virus itself in the end.

 

People forget that around 40,000 die in a regular flu season here in the U.S. alone. The vast majority of people dying from Covid-19 are 70+ & those with severe preexisting conditions. They should be the ones on lockdown, isolated from the rest of us. The rest of us in good health should be out there living our lives, working, going places, developing herd immunity, keeping the economy afloat. Locking everyone down & instituting $1,000 fines is a tyrannical, political, & emotional fear response.

 

I agree that the media tends towards fear-mongering in certain situations, and that this can result in panic and chaos. This is why I prefer to take the advice of the experts rather than commentators.

 

The experts are quite consistent in their messaging about the need for social distancing and isolation. For everyone, but especially for those at higher risk. This is not primarily about avoiding the virus, its about trying to make the numbers predictable and manageable.

 

Without the restrictions, the virus will spread quickly and thoroughly, and this will result in higher death rates because the number of infected people will swamp the system, and many in need of intensive care will not receive it, and die. By trying to build predictability, fewer people will be sick at once, and more people needing care will receive it. Survival rates will be higher. The curve will be longer, but the death rate will be lower.

 

The economy will suffer in either scenario. The question is whether you have a damaged economy with 100,000 deaths, or a damaged economy with 1,000,000 or more deaths.

 

Neither situation is good. But one is far worse than the other.

[+ bigjoey]

Speaking of #'s. Jack Dorsey of Twitter just gave 1/3 of his wealth to coronavirus work:

 

[MEDIA=twitter]1247622798555611138[/MEDIA]

 

 

Bill Gates is spending billions to fight this pandemic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-factories-7-different-vaccines-to-fight-coronavirus-2020-4?amp

 

The figures in your post are wrong.

[+ stevenkesslar]

The curve will be longer, but the death rate will be lower.

 

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

 

That is perhaps already starting top happen. These are the University of Washington models that I believe are the ones Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx were using in saying that we'd have 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

 

A week ago they projected about 93,000 deaths nationally in this first wave. Now it's down to about 81,000 nationally.

 

The different in California is particularly large. A week ago, they were projecting about 5300 deaths in California by June. Now its 1783 deaths by June.

 

When state leaders first did the lockdown in mid-March, the worst case scenario, with zero mitigation, was that about 20 million of California's 40 million residents would be infected by Summer 2020. The hour long press conference was quite artful in avoiding the word "death", let alone a projection of the number of dead. No doubt part of the goal was to avoid panic. But people got the message. Even if you take the 1 % death rate, which is wildly optimistic when hospitals are filled to capacity, it still would have meant a few hundred thousand dead Californians.

 

I agree with you that more sickness and death also means a sicker economy. I just don't see how 20 million sick people and 200,000 dead ones in California would have been good for the economy.

 

What public health professionals have been saying for months is that they know they have done their job well when the worst case scenario never appears. So I'm sure in California critics will say this was all hysteria, and there never really was a crisis.

 

Hopefully, it got bad enough that most people won't be persuaded that this was all just hysteria. Particularly because this was simply Round One.

 

Assuming those models are right, I think the ongoing debate will be about whether we can and should continue to prevent lots of deaths. This isn't just about flattening the curve and spacing out the same number of deaths more evenly. It's about a massive reduction in the number of deaths.

 

Everybody should go to those charts above and compare New York City and Austria. If these models are right, New York state will peak this week with 878 deaths in one day. They will have over 15,000 deaths by June. Austria peaked at 22 deaths per day on March 30. By June they are projected to have a total of 385 deaths. Austria has about the same population as New York City, and about half the population of New York State.

 

I agree with @mike carey's point that these numbers and models are different enough that it is hard to make apples to apples comparisons among nations. Their greatest value is probably in understanding trends within each nation. That said, the difference between New York City and Austria is very striking. It is difficult NOT to conclude that Austria acted much more quickly and decisively. And in doing so, they reduced the number of illnesses and hospitalizations and deaths.

 

They also probably reduced the amount of economic damage. They are almost certain to reopen long before the United States can.

[+ stevenkesslar]

Bill Gates is spending billions to fight this pandemic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-factories-7-different-vaccines-to-fight-coronavirus-2020-4?amp

 

The figures in your post are wrong.

 

You are both right.

 

Bill Gates Is Donating $50 Million to Speed Up the Development of a Coronavirus Treatment

Funded through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the donation program––dubbed the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator––is a whopping $50 million to be dispersed to 12 pharmaceutical companies and biotech firms which are actively looking to find an effective vaccine against the coronavirus. But that donation comes with a crucial caveat: the successful company or companies must make the vaccine affordable and accessible to even the world’s poorest regions.

 

As impressive as the $50 million donation is, it’s merely a portion of a larger fund spearheaded by the Gates Foundation. It has partnered with Wellcome, also contributing $50 million, and Mastercard Impact Fund, which has committed $25 million, bringing the grand total to $125 million.

Director of Wellcome, Dr. Jeremy Farrar, said in a statement, “COVID-19 is an extremely challenging virus, but we’ve proved that through collaborating across borders we can tackle emerging infectious diseases. We must strive to strengthen efforts in the face of COVID-19, and in doing so, continue to make sure advances are accessible and affordable to all. Investing now, at scale, at risk and as a collective global effort is vital if we are to change the course of this epidemic.”

 

I'll say it again. Bill Gates is a national treasure. And, like the vaccine, I'm happy to share him with the rest of the world.

[+ sniper]

Uhm no, two very different things. + I never said that social distancing isn't effective. The problem is the OTT hysteria & fearmongering in the media... it's as bad, or maybe even worse than back in the TERROR ALERT! days, when they wanted us to live in constant fear of terrorist attacks that never came after that initial one. I can't discuss politics here, but I think we all know what all that disgusting fearmongering led to in the end. People never think rationally when hysterical & in fear.

 

The other bigger problem is the kneecapping of the economy do to these lockdowns, which will ultimately end up affecting poor & working class people the most. The middle class will be hit hard too, many will probably end up losing their homes, etc, just like in the last economic crisis. It's possible that we end up with more death & suffering from these lockdown measures than from the actual virus itself in the end.

 

People forget that around 40,000 die in a regular flu season here in the U.S. alone. The vast majority of people dying from Covid-19 are 70+ & those with severe preexisting conditions. They should be the ones on lockdown, isolated from the rest of us. The rest of us in good health should be out there living our lives, working, going places, developing herd immunity, keeping the economy afloat. Locking everyone down & instituting $1,000 fines is a tyrannical, political, & emotional fear response.

 

This people for whom the virus is "no big deal" have an all-causes mortality rate LOWER than that of COVID-19. I don't consider more than doubling the number of people who will die this year something we should just let happen.

[+ tassojunior]

UK projected to have 2nd most deaths after US by August. Final numbers forecast:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/how-can-coronavirus-models-get-it-so-wrong?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Email

 

By August the UK is projected to have recorded more Covid-19 deaths than Italy, Spain, France and Germany combined

 

Thousands

 

US 81,766

UK 66,314

Italy 20,300

Spain 19,209

France 15,058

Germany 8,802

Edited April 8, 2020 by tassojunior

[+ tassojunior]

The mask won't really protect you from getting Covid19 if it's like other coronoviruses, although it may help limit the spread if you have it and are contagious. I think the encouragement to wear masks came when evidence popped up that asymptomatic people may be spreading it. To be protected yourself FROM Covid-19, you would really need full protective gear.

 

Coronavirus is extremely airborne and they have said this from the beginning. They say 6 to 10 feet normally and that it can linger in the air a decent time. In fact with fans and air systems in buildings or transit it can travel further and be airborne longer. Doctors and nurses in close contact with coronavirus patients have to have N95 masks at minimum as part of their uniform. Any mask will stop most transmission but only N95 will stop almost all spores from getting to the throat where they infect. I have 2 N95s I reuse every other day and would never go to the grocery without.

[+ stevenkesslar]

Ezekiel Emanuel: U.S. Must Stay Locked Down For 12-18 Months Until There's A Vaccine

 

This guy is a cancer doctor.

 

It's a three minute video that I find sobering, and thereby somewhat reassuring. It's a bit like Bill Gates, but without the goofy smile.

 

The headline is a bit inaccurate. At first I assumed he meant we all have to stay at home for 18 months. In fact, he says right up front that tens of millions of workers have to be in the middle of this, pretty much every day, because we rely on them for electricity, groceries, internet, etc.

 

What I like about this is that he has the skill set to deal with this like he deals with cancer: sober, no bullshit, but also knowing it is better to lay it on the line and deal with the reality, rather than false hope.

 

I've felt from the beginning of this that we should race toward what we need to do, rather than resisting it. We've now seen the high price we pay for resisting. The good news is that if we can all get our minds around racing to where we need to go, we'll actually get there quicker. And safer.

[+ sniper]

Ezekiel Emanuel also says stuff like we should all just stop wasting medical resources after 75. So I think he's a bit grimmer than most. We simply won't be doing 18 months of shelter in place(if we really did that the virus WOULD die out, and if 18 months of SIP wouldn't cause that, that would suggest the measures being taken are useless, which the data so far does not support), and testing will be ramped up much sooner than that allowing a staggered rollout.

[+ sniper]

And we can't "race towards what we need to do" until we have sufficient data to know what, in fact, we need to do. That is going to take another month at least.

[Guest]

Ezekiel Emanuel: U.S. Must Stay Locked Down For 12-18 Months Until There's A Vaccine

 

Too many unknowns to make a prediction like that. For example, if there's an effective treatment which can at least prevent death or need for mechanical ventilation, and we can get the treatment out, then that would end the lock-down. Or maybe the virus will drift to a less lethal form. Is there any truth to China's statistics? Maybe hot weather will cause mortality to plumet. I'm not Jared Leto. I will need to get my hair cut eventually...

[+ tassojunior]

Already talk in UK of releasing under-30's.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-releasing-young-people-could-be-best-way-out-of-lockdown-experts-suggest-150828964.html

 

Releasing young people aged between 20 and 30 years old who do not live at home with their parents could be the best route out of coronavirus lockdown in the UK, researchers have suggested.

[Walker1]

China seems to have lifted travel restrictions in Wuhan?

[+ tassojunior]

China seems to have lifted travel restrictions in Wuhan?

 

But they've barred Americans; too many coronavirus cases in America and Europe.

[mike carey]

China seems to have lifted travel restrictions in Wuhan?

They are restricting the number of people who can leave (max 1,000 per day to Beijing) and imposing stringent tests before allowing people to leave. Those going home to Beijing need clearance from their local district that they can quarantine in place once they return. So, easing rather than lifting.

[+ Charlie]

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

 

That is perhaps already starting top happen. These are the University of Washington models that I believe are the ones Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx were using in saying that we'd have 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

 

A week ago they projected about 93,000 deaths nationally in this first wave. Now it's down to about 81,000 nationally.

 

The different in California is particularly large. A week ago, they were projecting about 5300 deaths in California by June. Now its 1783 deaths by June.

 

When state leaders first did the lockdown in mid-March, the worst case scenario, with zero mitigation, was that about 20 million of California's 40 million residents would be infected by Summer 2020. The hour long press conference was quite artful in avoiding the word "death", let alone a projection of the number of dead. No doubt part of the goal was to avoid panic. But people got the message. Even if you take the 1 % death rate, which is wildly optimistic when hospitals are filled to capacity, it still would have meant a few hundred thousand dead Californians.

 

I agree with you that more sickness and death also means a sicker economy. I just don't see how 20 million sick people and 200,000 dead ones in California would have been good for the economy.

 

What public health professionals have been saying for months is that they know they have done their job well when the worst case scenario never appears. So I'm sure in California critics will say this was all hysteria, and there never really was a crisis.

 

Hopefully, it got bad enough that most people won't be persuaded that this was all just hysteria. Particularly because this was simply Round One.

 

Assuming those models are right, I think the ongoing debate will be about whether we can and should continue to prevent lots of deaths. This isn't just about flattening the curve and spacing out the same number of deaths more evenly. It's about a massive reduction in the number of deaths.

 

Everybody should go to those charts above and compare New York City and Austria. If these models are right, New York state will peak this week with 878 deaths in one day. They will have over 15,000 deaths by June. Austria peaked at 22 deaths per day on March 30. By June they are projected to have a total of 385 deaths. Austria has about the same population as New York City, and about half the population of New York State.

 

I agree with @mike carey's point that these numbers and models are different enough that it is hard to make apples to apples comparisons among nations. Their greatest value is probably in understanding trends within each nation. That said, the difference between New York City and Austria is very striking. It is difficult NOT to conclude that Austria acted much more quickly and decisively. And in doing so, they reduced the number of illnesses and hospitalizations and deaths.

 

They also probably reduced the amount of economic damage. They are almost certain to reopen long before the United States can.

The comparison between NYC and Austria is not logical: the fact that they have about the same population ignores the more important fact that the population density in Austria is 276 per square mile, while the population density in NYC is 28,700 per square mile. In other words, New Yorkers are packed together one hundred times tighter than Austrians! If social distancing has any validity, the time at which each location began imposing restrictions could not be the only important determinant of the difference in number of deaths at the peak. Austrians are naturally more physically separated from one another than New Yorkers than any decree could make them. The average New Yorker comes in danger zone contact every day with many more persons than the average Austrian possibly could.