Pandemic preparation? ?

[+ stevenkesslar]

I'm really trying to avoid big box retailers like Walmart unless they bring back curbside delivery (which i think all stores should be required to close the store and only offer that service).

 

This is changing the subject, but you made me think about something else.

 

I think it's a given that the infection rate, unmitigated, is that one person infects two to three other people. And presumably this may happen over a period of up to a week, partly when you are asymptomatic if no precaution is taken.

 

That's not very many people, really. In a city like New York or Paris I'd guess an average person might cross paths with thousands in a week - on a subway, in a cinema, at work, in a restaurant.

 

I've read things that make distinctions between "community spread" and "person to person spread". The argument is that community spread is a misnomer, because really this passes from close contact between two people. It's not like 1000 people go to the beach, and half of them get infected from something in the air. The more academic it gets, the less I care. But there is a valid point there. Chinese reports have said that a family sharing a meal and passing plates around was a good way to spread the virus. Much of the infection was within families, who obviously spend a lot of time being physically close together.

 

On the other extreme end, South Korea has apps where they send out phone alerts if you have been near someone infected in public. I don't know for sure, but I'm assuming that could mean you were in Walmart together, or on a subway together. They can use cell phone and car GPS to track where an infected person has been - which is kind of Big Brotherish to me. It seems like overkill. It may help psychologically, as a sort of "always be on the alert" message. But in terms of actually breaking the transmission chain, I'm not sure it adds much value.

 

Finally, the reality is that "test, trace, treat" seems to be working in the countries that have actually tried it. China is the best example, since it was part of their draconian lock down. But half a dozen other countries have practiced variations of it - without having total lock downs or having to stop all office work or close all restaurants. It's mostly working, once an infection is under control and the "virus killer" detective tools are actually in place.

 

My point is that the math seems to be on our side on this, if we learn to be really smart about it. One way I'm looking at what Asian countries do is they are essentially choosing slower growth over faster death. That doesn't require a lock down. You can still shop, work, and play, but in modified forms with more limits. And with an especially huge aversion to large gatherings where people are packed in close together.

 

This is the kind of stuff I think we should be debating. To be specific, I don't feel like the risk of going grocery shopping is very high. On the other hand, going to a political rally or an indoor sports arena packed with people seems like something we'll just have to give up for a while.

 

Check this out:

 

 

The last baseball players standing during the coronavirus shutdown

 

With sports shut down almost universally, the two best baseball leagues outside MLB — Japan's NPB and South Korea's KBO — are still soldiering on, with numerous restrictions and safety measures in place, of course.

 

That's probably a good example of how we can manage this until there is a vaccine, or somehow it just goes away - which is probably pretty unlikely. Play baseball games without packed stadiums. The team owners may not like it. But they can still get all the TV ad revenue.

 

One of the things I think is good about a global lock down is that it just changes the game completely. A month ago, everybody was thinking, "Wait. I can't do that anymore?" Now I think the stage is set to moving toward a phase where we can do things, but with a different set of rules that there is more social pressure to abide by.

[+ WilliamM]

This is changing the subject, but you made me think about something else.

 

I think it's a given that the infection rate, unmitigated, is that one person infects two to three other people. And presumably this may happen over a period of up to a week, partly when you are asymptomatic if no precaution is taken.

 

That's not very many people, really. In a city like New York or Paris I'd guess an average person might cross paths with thousands in a week - on a subway, in a cinema, at work, in a restaurant.

 

I've read things that make distinctions between "community spread" and "person to person spread". The argument is that community spread is a misnomer, because really this passes from close contact between two people. It's not like 1000 people go to the beach, and half of them get infected from something in the air. The more academic it gets, the less I care. But there is a valid point there. Chinese reports have said that a family sharing a meal and passing plates around was a good way to spread the virus. Much of the infection was within families, who obviously spend a lot of time being physically close together.

 

On the other extreme end, South Korea has apps where they send out phone alerts if you have been near someone infected in public. I don't know for sure, but I'm assuming that could mean you were in Walmart together, or on a subway together. They can use cell phone and car GPS to track where an infected person has been - which is kind of Big Brotherish to me. It seems like overkill. It may help psychologically, as a sort of "always be on the alert" message. But in terms of actually breaking the transmission chain, I'm not sure it adds much value.

 

Finally, the reality is that "test, trace, treat" seems to be working in the countries that have actually tried it. China is the best example, since it was part of their draconian lock down. But half a dozen other countries have practiced variations of it - without having total lock downs or having to stop all office work or close all restaurants. It's mostly working, once an infection is under control and the "virus killer" detective tools are actually in place.

 

My point is that the math seems to be on our side on this, if we learn to be really smart about it. One way I'm looking at what Asian countries do is they are essentially choosing slower growth over faster death. That doesn't require a lock down. You can still shop, work, and play, but in modified forms with more limits. And with an especially huge aversion to large gatherings where people are packed in close together.

 

This is the kind of stuff I think we should be debating. To be specific, I don't feel like the risk of going grocery shopping is very high. On the other hand, going to a political rally or an indoor sports arena packed with people seems like something we'll just have to give up for a while.

 

Check this out:

 

 

The last baseball players standing during the coronavirus shutdown

 

With sports shut down almost universally, the two best baseball leagues outside MLB — Japan's NPB and South Korea's KBO — are still soldiering on, with numerous restrictions and safety measures in place, of course.

 

That's probably a good example of how we can manage this until there is a vaccine, or somehow it just goes away - which is probably pretty unlikely. Play baseball games without packed stadiums. The team owners may not like it. But they can still get all the TV ad revenue.

 

One of the things I think is good about a global lock down is that it just changes the game completely. A month ago, everybody was thinking, "Wait. I can't do that anymore?" Now I think the stage is set to moving toward a phase where we can do things, but with a different set of rules that there is more social pressure to abide by.

The Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame is located in Tokyo, one of the most crowded cities in the world even on a good day. Think again about baseball in Japan anytime soon.

[LivingnLA]

I've read things that make distinctions between "community spread" and "person to person spread". The argument is that community spread is a misnomer, because really this passes from close contact between two people. It's not like 1000 people go to the beach, and half of them get infected from something in the air. The more academic it gets, the less I care. But there is a valid point there. Chinese reports have said that a family sharing a meal and passing plates around was a good way to spread the virus. Much of the infection was within families, who obviously spend a lot of time being physically close together.

 

Person to person generally refers to close contact which is probably by the most efficient way this virus appears to spread: respiratory droplets. Community spread refers to the other way this virus spreads, which thankfully it appears to be less efficient at: aerosolized airborne. Here's a video explaining them:

Edited March 28, 2020 by LivingnLA

[Populist Fury]

For those of you on isolation/lockdown, I recommend https://drizly.com

 

They deliver in under an hour & their selection is vast ?

[KeepItReal]

For those of you on isolation/lockdown, I recommend https://drizly.com

 

They deliver in under an hour & their selection is vast ?

You really shouldn't encourage me! Lol

[Guest]

Food safety PSA.

 

[Guest]

STAY HOME for goodness sakes!!!

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-in-ny-video-shows-disturbing-crowded-hospital-er/

[+ Reisr30]

Is it me or does it not feel to others like you are in a dystopian sci-fi movie? At least that’s what it feels like in NYC suburbs. Sigh...

[JulianLondon]

Is it me or does it not feel to others like you are in a dystopian sci-fi movie? At least that’s what it feels like in NYC suburbs. Sigh...

 

Yes ! It feels daily like a new episode from Black Mirror.

 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2085059/

 

[mike carey]

In Canberra, a relatively small, but not insignificant proportion of restaurants and cafés have switched to takeaway and delivery since the prohibition of sit down eating came in this week. Some are making a social contribution with their pricing to some customers. The ACT [Australian Capital Territory] government has eased the liquor licensing laws so that restaurants that are licensed can supply takeaway wines with the meals they sell, whereas previously they were not permitted to sell off licence alcohol. From what I've read, people buying meals are prepared to pay for their bottle of wine from the restaurant rather than buy a cheaper one at a bottle shop.

[+ tassojunior]

Trump many quarantine NY off from US today :

 

"We might not have to do it but there's a possibility that sometime today we'll do a quarantine — short term [for] two weeks," he said.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-considering-quarantine-york-164649982.html

[BSR]

Is it me or does it not feel to others like you are in a dystopian sci-fi movie? At least that’s what it feels like in NYC suburbs. Sigh...

 

You are not alone. The hotel/casinos on the Las Vegas Strip have never closed, until now. I haven't been there but have seen video: the normal bumper-to-bumper traffic and throngs of tourists on the sidewalks have disappeared, not a single car & empty sidewalks now. When I see the images, I think the same thing: this feels like some dystopian science fiction.

[+ bigjoey]

You are not alone. The hotel/casinos on the Las Vegas Strip have never closed, until now. I haven't been there but have seen video: the normal bumper-to-bumper traffic and throngs of tourists on the sidewalks have disappeared, not a single car & empty sidewalks now. When I see the images, I think the same thing: this feels like some dystopian science fiction.

 

 

Did they close on 9-11.

[BSR]

Did they close on 9-11.

 

I hadn't moved to Las Vegas yet, but my next door neighbor (who was working at the Mirage at the time) tells me no, they didn't close.

[jjkrkwood]

ME, running some errands this morning. Better safe than sorry !

 

[+ oldNbusted]

At the store this morning, the funniest thing to me was how the people with masks were oblivious as they crowded up with strangers instead of following the distancing advice on the signs everywhere. In my opinion, it was a prime example of how people can develop a false sense of security after taking a single action.

[jjkrkwood]

At the store this morning, the funniest thing to me was how the people with masks were oblivious as they crowded up with strangers instead of following the distancing advice on the signs everywhere. In my opinion, it was a prime example of how people can develop a false sense of security after taking a single action.

 

Lets face it, this Pandemic shit requires a "learning curve" for us all !

[marylander1940]

At the store this morning, the funniest thing to me was how the people with masks were oblivious as they crowded up with strangers instead of following the distancing advice on the signs everywhere. In my opinion, it was a prime example of how people can develop a false sense of security after taking a single action.

 

every mask we see on the street, supermarket, etc. wore by a civilian is a mask that could have been used by a Doctor, nurse, police officer, military personnel, etc.

[+ bashful]

The hotel/casinos on the Las Vegas Strip have never closed, until now.

 

In my early days after college, worked at four different hotels, most in a management position. To be honest, If we had to close, I would have had no clue if, and where a key was to lock the front doors.

[+ Keith30309]

Some had the foresight to become billionaires and buy yachts.

I hope he runs out of toilet paper.

 

 

[MscleLovr]

Talk about tone-deaf! I bet this energizes the Sanders voters.

[+ Hoover42]

every mask we see on the street, supermarket, etc. wore by a civilian is a mask that could have been used by a Doctor, nurse, police officer, military personnel, etc.

Prediction: Sometime within the next two weeks the WHO or the CDC will revise guidance to say that everyone should wear a mask when out in public.

[KeepItReal]

Prediction: Sometime within the next two weeks the WHO or the CDC will revise guidance to say that everyone should wear a mask when out in public.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/health/us-coronavirus-face-masks.html

[down_to_business]

If you didn't already get your Easter chicks, you are out of luck!

Baby Chickens Sold Out Nationwide Ahead of Easter as Americans Panic-Buy Feathery Friends for Comfort

 

https://www.newsweek.com/baby-chickens-nationwide-easter-americans-panic-buy-feathery-friends-1494868

[jjkrkwood]

If you didn't already get your Easter chicks, you are out of luck!

 

Baby Chickens Sold Out Nationwide Ahead of Easter as Americans Panic-Buy Feathery Friends for Comfort

 

https://www.newsweek.com/baby-chickens-nationwide-easter-americans-panic-buy-feathery-friends-1494868

 

You mean I'll have to settle for capon or squab...