Pandemic preparation? ?

[+ easygoingpal]

Because I didn't know if there would be rolls when I needed them. I have never seen the toilet paper aisle empty, save a few rolls. So I figure might as well load up . Probably what everyone else is doing!

I was down to my last roll of TP yesterday... I went to Safeway and Walgreens and there was no TP left. I had to ask my cousins to help me with a couple of rolls... Such is life...

[+ azdr0710]

[+ stevenkesslar]

Government is reactive it is not proactive. This applies to totalitarian dictatorships like China as well as Western democracies such as the United States or Europe. The leadership of these countries, regardless of political parties all encounter the same issues of authority, legality, and bureaucratic incompetence/inertia.

 

Anyone expecting that “government“ will save them from disaster is going to be a casualty.

 

 

Before Trump’s inauguration, a warning: ‘The worst influenza pandemic since 1918'

In a tabletop exercise days before an untested new president took power, officials briefed the incoming administration on a scenario remarkably like the one he faces now.

 

 

I'm putting this here rather than in the politics forum because I think it makes a nonpartisan or apolitical statement about collective preparedness.

 

We've crossed a threshold this week. We're now past 9/11. The death toll in the US is barely 100. But before long it is next to certain that more Americans will die of COVID-19 than from terrorist-flown airplanes on 9/11. The hope now is that the measures governments at every level are taking will limit the scope of this to something that is not much worse than what happened in Wuhan.

 

The difference can be measured by the words of the leader we are all counting on to guide us through this. As recently as Feb. 27, this was the message being sent: Speaking about the 15 individuals diagnosed with the coronavirus on US soil, Trump said that “the 15 will soon be down to three, four.” The people being treated today were the ones being infected right around the time that was said. Now we are being told by the same leader not to have gatherings of more than 10 people.

 

So that right there makes your case. Anyone expecting the government to save them from disaster is going to be a casualty.

 

That said, if we don't expect government - including the CDC and the scientists the government funds - to save us, what's Plan B? If we don't expect the government to keep airlines and small businesses and people being laid off who have mortgages to pay whole - what's Plan B?

 

I saw who hit the like button on your post. And i get it. In part, going after Big Government is always an easy target. And, in part, this episode is proof of concept. We obviously couldn't count on the government, either in China or the US, to prevent this nightmare.

 

Again, I'm going for nonpartisan here. I read an interesting article in a conservative blog. Someone pointed out that they are always asked by liberals why they are so concerned about Muslim terrorists, when way more people die in car crashes every day than die at the hands of terrorists. The answer was pretty good. The guy said the potential for something really horrific to happen is exponentially worse with terrorism than it is with a car crash.

 

9/11, of course, proved that to be true. Since 9/11, I think the vast majority of Americans agree that government has done a reasonably good job of preventing terrorism. At least we haven't had another 9/11.

 

Now that we're having the first massive viral 9/11 of anyone's lifetime, at least in the US and most of the West, this one won't be forgotten, either. America, and the world, will go back to normal. But it will be a new normal.

 

I think the difference between your perspective and my perspective may come down to two words: assume, and expect. In context:

 

Anyone assuming that “government“ will save them from disaster is going to be a casualty.

 

Anyone expecting that “government“ will save them from disaster is going to be a casualty.

 

I strongly agree with the first statement. I rabidly disagree with the second one.

 

All I have to do to explain why is go back to those two very different statements above.

 

Anyone who assumed that saying "15 will soon be down to three, four" would save them from disaster is potentially in trouble. For all we know, somebody who was sitting in the room when he said that at a large gathering was already infected.

 

On the other hand, I do expect that the government is going to save us from a viral disaster. Just like I think that conservative probably did speak for most Americans, including me, when he said Americans expect their government to save them from some terrorist disaster.

 

There are, of course, limitless disasters that could befall us. For example, we don't know whether this is a prelude to an invasion by aliens. Or whether those aliens are coming from Pluto, or from some other galaxy. Most people don't feel it's a priority for their government to prepare for that right now.

 

We usually are better at understanding what we have experienced. That's why, thankfully, South Korea was way more pro-active on this one. Scientists everywhere are racing to learn from what worked, and what failed, there.

 

This isn't just a philosophical argument. Some preparedness is individual, like whether we wash our hands. But the things that are really going to matter most on this crisis, and will save most of the lives that are going to be saved, all involve collective preparedness.

 

So right now we're being told that there should be no gathering of more than 10 people. Either we expect the government will save us from disaster, or we don't. I do. Two weeks ago, I felt that my government was completely and massively dropping the ball. As bad as this all is, I feel relief that my government is now on this, and taking the steps that need to be taken.

 

The other concrete reason this matters right now is that it is very basic to democracy. China proved both of us are half right. They completely fucked up the front end of this, and unleashed a global pandemic. On the back end, they have put the genie at least partly back in the bottle - in China. Whether we like the way they did it or not, we learned some things about what types of measures it takes. In the course of a few months, China was both tragically reactive, and amazingly proactive. Clearly, reactive is not better - at least in a situation like this.

 

The difference between the US and China is that we have a government that is not only in some way accountable. It is also elected. It is very easy, especially now, to win points by arguing that government sucks, and we should have very low expectations. I'm not saying that is exactly what you are saying. But it is certainly the way a lot of people feel.

 

It's a horrible way to run a democratic country. And what is happening right now is proof of it.

 

The incompetence pandemic

The first victim of the coronavirus? Leadership.

 

I'm tossing that in because the headline itself can be taken as proof of your argument. Government. Sucks. Always.

 

Like I said, It's always easy to blame it on government. But here's a simple test of how much you really believe it.

 

Let's just separate all the people who expect government to work, and to save us from disaster, and all the people who don't.

 

All the people who think government can save us are going to South Korea until this is over. The infection growth rate is sloping down. There are 8,320 cases and 75 deaths.

 

All the people who think government can't be expected to save us are going to Italy until this is over. Infection and death rates are out of control. They have 27,980 cases (they had less than South Korea a few weeks ago) and 2,158 deaths. Just be sure to bring lots of soap.

 

Speaking of soap, you and I are personally responsible for whether we wash our hands, or touch our face. It doesn't work that way with government. We're both going to have to live with the kind of government the majority expects. And, in fact, we are.

 

Trust no one? Americans lack faith in the government, the media and each other, survey finds

 

“Many people no longer think the federal government can actually be a force for good or change in their lives. This kind of apathy and disengagement will lead to an even worse and less representative government," one survey respondent said.

 

There is a kind of herd immunity argument that applies to government as well. The more people that actually believe that government can not save us from disaster, the more likely we will all end up actually getting what we expect.

 

Perhaps not coincidentally, people in South Korea are getting what they expected, too:

 

SOUTH KOREA: TRUST MAKES A COMEBACK

 

Korea’s 17-point jump in trust in government among the general population was the largest of any market studied in the 2018 Edelman Trust Barometer.

 

While Koreans now trust their government much more than they did a year ago, government was also seen as the most broken institution by 43 percent of respondents, more than double that of any other institution. Despite this, government was also seen as the institution most likely to lead Korea to a better future. Government is seen as much better than before, but it needs to improve further to help the country continue to grow.

[+ bashful]

Who owns the Ambassador Bridge?

Manuel Moroun. Manuel Moroun (born June 5, 1927) is an American billionaire businessman, and the owner of CenTra, Inc, which controls the Ambassador Bridge, the international crossing connecting Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, the only privately owned border crossing between the US and Canada. It Is The Busiest International Bridge Crossing Between The US and Canada

 

According to Wikipedia, yes. However I rarely took the bridge. Most often I used the tunnel.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit–Windsor_Tunnel

 

For a brief time, my brother worked at the railway crossing, which is freight only.

Edited March 17, 2020 by bashful

[+ ArVaGuy]

Before Trump’s inauguration, a warning: ‘The worst influenza pandemic since 1918'[/url]

In a tabletop exercise days before an untested new president took power, officials briefed the incoming administration on a scenario remarkably like the one he faces now.

 

 

I'm putting this here rather than in the politics forum because I think it makes a nonpartisan or apolitical statement about collective preparedness.

 

We've crossed a threshold this week. We're now past 9/11. The death toll in the US is barely 100. But before long it is next to certain that more Americans will die of COVID-19 than from terrorist-flown airplanes on 9/11. The hope now is that the measures governments at every level are taking will limit the scope of this to something that is not much worse than what happened in Wuhan.

 

The difference can be measured by the words of the leader we are all counting on to guide us through this. As recently as Feb. 27, this was the message being sent: Speaking about the 15 individuals diagnosed with the coronavirus on US soil, Trump said that “the 15 will soon be down to three, four.” The people being treated today were the ones being infected right around the time that was said. Now we are being told by the same leader not to have gatherings of more than 10 people.

 

So that right there makes your case. Anyone expecting the government to save them from disaster is going to be a casualty.

 

That said, if we don't expect government - including the CDC and the scientists the government funds - to save us, what's Plan B? If we don't expect the government to keep airlines and small businesses and people being laid off who have mortgages to pay whole - what's Plan B?

 

I saw who hit the like button on your post. And i get it. In part, going after Big Government is always an easy target. And, in part, this episode is proof of concept. We obviously couldn't count on the government, either in China or the US, to prevent this nightmare.

 

Again, I'm going for nonpartisan here. I read an interesting article in a conservative blog. Someone pointed out that they are always asked by liberals why they are so concerned about Muslim terrorists, when way more people die in car crashes every day than die at the hands of terrorists. The answer was pretty good. The guy said the potential for something really horrific to happen is exponentially worse with terrorism than it is with a car crash.

 

9/11, of course, proved that to be true. Since 9/11, I think the vast majority of Americans agree that government has done a reasonably good job of preventing terrorism. At least we haven't had another 9/11.

 

Now that we're having the first massive viral 9/11 of anyone's lifetime, at least in the US and most of the West, this one won't be forgotten, either. America, and the world, will go back to normal. But it will be a new normal.

 

I think the difference between your perspective and my perspective may come down to two words: assume, and expect. In context:

 

Anyone assuming that “government“ will save them from disaster is going to be a casualty.

 

Anyone expecting that “government“ will save them from disaster is going to be a casualty.

 

I strongly agree with the first statement. I rabidly disagree with the second one.

 

All I have to do to explain why is go back to those two very different statements above.

 

Anyone who assumed that saying "15 will soon be down to three, four" would save them from disaster is potentially in trouble. For all we know, somebody who was sitting in the room when he said that at a large gathering was already infected.

 

On the other hand, I do expect that the government is going to save us from a viral disaster. Just like I think that conservative probably did speak for most Americans, including me, when he said Americans expect their government to save them from some terrorist disaster.

 

There are, of course, limitless disasters that could befall us. For example, we don't know whether this is a prelude to an invasion by aliens. Or whether those aliens are coming from Pluto, or from some other galaxy. Most people don't feel it's a priority for their government to prepare for that right now.

 

We usually are better at understanding what we have experienced. That's why, thankfully, South Korea was way more pro-active on this one. Scientists everywhere are racing to learn from what worked, and what failed, there.

 

This isn't just a philosophical argument. Some preparedness is individual, like whether we wash our hands. But the things that are really going to matter most on this crisis, and will save most of the lives that are going to be saved, all involve collective preparedness.

 

So right now we're being told that there should be no gathering of more than 10 people. Either we expect the government will save us from disaster, or we don't. I do. Two weeks ago, I felt that my government was completely and massively dropping the ball. As bad as this all is, I feel relief that my government is now on this, and taking the steps that need to be taken.

 

The other concrete reason this matters right now is that it is very basic to democracy. China proved both of us are half right. They completely fucked up the front end of this, and unleashed a global pandemic. On the back end, they have put the genie at least partly back in the bottle - in China. Whether we like the way they did it or not, we learned some things about what types of measures it takes. In the course of a few months, China was both tragically reactive, and amazingly proactive. Clearly, reactive is not better - at least in a situation like this.

 

The difference between the US and China is that we have a government that is not only in some way accountable. It is also elected. It is very easy, especially now, to win points by arguing that government sucks, and we should have very low expectations. I'm not saying that is exactly what you are saying. But it is certainly the way a lot of people feel.

 

It's a horrible way to run a democratic country. And what is happening right now is proof of it.

 

The incompetence pandemic

The first victim of the coronavirus? Leadership.

 

I'm tossing that in because the headline itself can be taken as proof of your argument. Government. Sucks. Always.

 

Like I said, It's always easy to blame it on government. But here's a simple test of how much you really believe it.

 

Let's just separate all the people who expect government to work, and to save us from disaster, and all the people who don't.

 

All the people who think government can save us are going to South Korea until this is over. The infection growth rate is sloping down. There are 8,320 cases and 75 deaths.

 

All the people who think government can't be expected to save us are going to Italy until this is over. Infection and death rates are out of control. They have 27,980 cases (they had less than South Korea a few weeks ago) and 2,158 deaths. Just be sure to bring lots of soap.

 

Speaking of soap, you and I are personally responsible for whether we wash our hands, or touch our face. It doesn't work that way with government. We're both going to have to live with the kind of government the majority expects. And, in fact, we are.

 

Trust no one? Americans lack faith in the government, the media and each other, survey finds

 

“Many people no longer think the federal government can actually be a force for good or change in their lives. This kind of apathy and disengagement will lead to an even worse and less representative government," one survey respondent said.

 

There is a kind of herd immunity argument that applies to government as well. The more people that actually believe that government can not save us from disaster, the more likely we will all end up actually getting what we expect.

 

Perhaps not coincidentally, people in South Korea are getting what they expected, too:

 

SOUTH KOREA: TRUST MAKES A COMEBACK

 

Korea’s 17-point jump in trust in government among the general population was the largest of any market studied in the 2018 Edelman Trust Barometer.

 

While Koreans now trust their government much more than they did a year ago, government was also seen as the most broken institution by 43 percent of respondents, more than double that of any other institution. Despite this, government was also seen as the institution most likely to lead Korea to a better future. Government is seen as much better than before, but it needs to improve further to help the country continue to grow.

 

Stephen,

 

Brevity is a Virtue.

[+ bashful]

We've crossed a threshold this week. We're now past 9/11.

 

I don't know what your measurement is, but when working, and living in the midwest, I routinely dealt with our New York facilities. I had only been to NYC twice in the 12 years I had the job, and it was before 9/11. One day, several years after 9/11, I don't remember how many, maybe five, six, or seven years after 9/11, I was having a conversation with one NYC supervisors regarding another employee. She paused during our conversation, and I began to wonder what was going on, and then she let it out. She said people don't realize 9/11 hasn't ended for us. People still have problems, and illness, and cancers were still taking lives years later.

 

I guess all I'm trying to say is catastrophes claim more people than an initial death count.

[mike carey]

Try "singing" rather than "signing."

Well, I've seen those people signing so hearing impaired people can follow what's being announced (well, except when 45 is speaking, but I digress), and I'm here to tell you that you can't do that while you're washing your hands.

[mike carey]

[+ stevenkesslar]

Stephen,

 

Brevity is a Virtue.

 

So is denial, I guess.

 

I get the point that if the issue is Americans getting sick and dying, a sentence is about all we can afford to read.

 

That said, here are two stories with polar opposite views of reality and government. Turns out other people can be as verbose as me.

 

This Is An Emergency!

For the good of the country, and especially for the good of our leaders, we must prorogue Congress. We must do it today! And since we do not know how long this plague will last, we must do it indefinitely.

 

As I write, the news has just come in that a total of 60 people—60!—have died from the scourge of the Wuhan virus. Do you realize that in this country you have a 0.000000155963303 chance of contracting and dying from this dread disease? Especially if you are over 80 and in poor health.

 

The Real Threat(s) from Coronavirus

Social distancing is nothing compared to a crisis that leads to mass casualties, economic collapse, and a legacy of bad policies that leaves the country weaker than ever before.

 

When there are more patients than resources, for example, more patients who require intubation and a ventilator, than there are ventilators, then doctors have to choose who gets a treatment that under normal circumstances would be available to any and all who needed it. And then the fatalities shoot up.

 

 

This is about preparedness. And facts, facts, and only the facts. Both of those articles are written by American Greatness, a right-wing journal. They are both worth reading in full. They describe completely different views of America, completely different views of government,, and - most importantly right now - completely different views of how to save American lives. And they were both written by conservatives, one day apart.

 

The first article shows so much contempt for Congress that it sarcastically suggests we should just get rid of it indefinitely. Some version of that might happen. Today Marco Rubio said we can't assume that the Senate will be able to convene in a month, if lots of Senators are sick or quarantined. Woo hoo! Problem solved, right? Lock the dipshits away!

 

There's a few minor problems, though. We will probably need about a $1 trillion Depression Prevention package. So for people who love $1 trillion deficits, woo hoo! You get double the pleasure, double the fun. Let's make it $2 trillion, shall we? Or would you rather have airline bankruptcies, massive small business failures, workers without paychecks, and - perhaps importantly - too few ventilators to keep you and me alive? Not to worry, of course, given that there is only a 0.000000155963303 chance of contracting this dread disease.

 

Somebody issued the Reality Memo today. Instead of saying that the number of cases would go from 15 to 5 to 0, we now have more realistic advice: stop having gathering of more than 10 people. Even that is poor advice if we really want to stop this thing. That said, it's dramatic progress from a complete disconnect from reality.

 

The second article in American Greatness, one day later, is actually grounded in the dire reality we are in. We are now talking about a stock market freefall. And a global death toll that is growing exponentially. Hey, why worry, right?

 

Fauci’s warnings

 

“I think we should really be overly aggressive and get criticized for overreacting,” he also said on “Meet” yesterday, adding: “I think Americans should be prepared that they're going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing.”

 

And here was Fauci on CNN: “I would like to see a dramatic diminution of the personal interaction that we see in restaurants and in bars.”

 

 

Granted, these dipshits in the government are always reactive. Nothing ever changes, right? And not that anybody actually wants to read long articles about how we must collectively prepare as a nation. Like right now. Immediately. Urgently.

 

The cities with the most infections are now all moving into lockdown. We may get to martial law. I actually hope we do. Because that way everybody might realize this is lethal.

 

For now, we're still at voluntary compliance. It has worked in South Korea, where everybody actually expected their government to coordinate a massive pro-active effort to save lives.

 

Listening to Dr. Fauci could make sense. He was one of the top virologists in the middle of the global effort that spared Gay men of a permanent death sentence called AIDS.

 

And yet, we have a massive problem.

 

 

My point here is not to be partisan. It is to be factual. Like that second American Greatness article is. It states, correctly, that we are staring "mass casualties" and "economic collapse" in the face. So let's see. How about if we go out to dinner and celebrate?

 

In fairness, that poll was completed before Fauci said stop going out to dinner. Or Trump finally dissed gatherings of more than 10 people.

 

This "government dipshits arr wrong" attitude is a huge fucking preparedness problem right now. The scientists like Dr. Fauci, who are desperately trying to stop another killer virus, are the ones being pro-active. We're the ones being reactive, and wrong.

 

This is a nonpartisan problem. 64 % of Democrats and 88 % of Republicans intend to ignore Dr. Fauci's advice, according to that poll. I'm sorry, but it is irresponsible and dangerous to mock government and write that 80 year olds have a 0.000000155963303 of contracting COVID-19 or dying of it. The only good news is that a 12 % plunge in the Dow has perhaps been a needed wake up call.

 

We are both half right. What China did in the first half of January is a case study in reactive government. They could not be counted on to save the lives of Chinese citizens. But what they did after that is the exact opposite. They wiped out a virus in a few months. The total new infections in Wuhan today is one. We should only be so lucky!

 

11 extreme measures China took to contain the coronavirus show the rest of the world is unprepared for COVID-19

 

Not to drag out the idea of being prepared any further, but that article lists 11 things that probably saved millions of Chinese lives. The number of infections was below 1000 when China went to extreme measures. The US is closing in on 5000 cases now. That's doubled from a few days ago.

 

Of those 11 points, this is the most relevant to the idea of collective preparedness:

 

In contrast to reports in the US of people clamoring over the last hand-sanitizer, Aylward said he was struck by the attitude of people in China that they were all in this together. "This is not a village," he said of Wuhan, which is bigger than New York City. "As you drive into this city, in the dead of night, the lights on, it's a ghost town. But behind every window and every skyscraper there are people cooperating with this response."

 

There are two very important rewards for this kind of collective preparedness., whether it's what China did harshly or South Korea did softly.

 

First, there is only one new reported case in Wuhan today. There are 20 more cases in China, all imports from abroad. So now China will have to build a Great Wall, to keep the killer virus out, until we get our shit together. Sure makes democracy looks good, right? Woo hoo!

 

Second, the Dow has now plunged 31.7 % from its pre-crisis peak. The Shanghai index is 10.9 % below its pre-crisis peak. By the time we're done, the US will be lucky if we only have three times the death and economic damage as China. Government can be pro-active, and save lives. And when it does, there seems to be a huge payoff.

Edited March 17, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[+ stevenkesslar]

My rant continues.

 

I'm including two more specific things from that second American Greatness article, which is thoughtful, factual, and hopefully actually life-saving.

 

 

The first is the "flattening the curve" image. I was thrilled to see this in American Greatness. Something - perhaps a 12 % drop in the Dow? - changed reality overnight. This image completely demolishes the incorrect and dangerous idea that we have only a 0.000000155963303 chance of contracting Coronavirus and dying. Kudos to American Greatness (and Tucker Carlson on Fox) for telling older people who rely on those media outlets the truth.

 

Second, believe it or not, I have lots of conservative impulses, too. And democratic ones - small d, not big D. China should have hell to pay for acting like a police state that punished a doctor, and as much as killed him, in an attempt to cover up the truth. They unleashed a global pandemic. That is all real.

 

But right now, it looks like state capitalism or socialism or whatever you want to call it wiped out a killer virus in the most populated nation on earth. And we Americans can't seem to organize our way out of a virus-infested paper bag. Forget Trump's "finest hour". Is this what America's "finest hour" looks like?

 

There is this warning from the second American Greatness article:

 

Bad policy. There is an almost irresistible temptation for policymakers to “do something” and many of the incentives combined with the preexisting condition of bad ideology will militate toward bad policy. We do not, for example, want the government to create a “temporary” surveillance commissariat to monitor everyone’s body temperature or anything like that which could become a permanent fixture in American life. Think of the prospect of an agency equivalent of the TSA but patting you down every time you venture into public. Its logo would be a fist encased in a latex glove.

 

Some of the most well known conservatives on this message center, who I will not name, can attest to my long rants, in person, about how much I despise the TSA. Hell hath no wrath like being late for a flight with a certain conservative on this message center. About a decade ago, I missed a flight at LAX to join him in Mexico. The TSA shut the airport down for three hours as part of some stupid "practice" exercise. Meanwhile, while I waited, my flight left. And yes, I carry a grudge. Multiple Congressional hearings pretty much document that you could put a nuclear bomb through one of those scanners and the "dipshits" who monitor them would be unlikely to notice.

 

So if American Greatness is predisposed to oppose some new unionized bureaucracy that helpfully checks our temperature, I would tend to agree with them. But even if we are able to contain this virus, which looks next to impossible given the level of cooperation we are showing today, then we have a new problem. It is, in fact, the problem China has today. It's a problem we should really want to have. They have a stock market that slid only 10 %, not 30 %. And today they have 20 people from abroad who showed up in their country infected with COVID-19.

 

So what do we do? Not screen them? Get real. In China, of course they are going to screen their temperatures. And quarantine them.

 

Why are we not talking about this today? Do we want to be prepared, or not? Because how, or even whether, we can lift travel bans to Europe or China is probably more important than the availability of toilet paper or onions.

 

I'll predict what will happen. China will be the first one to recover. It already is. And nations like Italy will look to them, both for strategies to keep people alive, and strategies to recover and grow.

 

Is that really what we want? I mean, I'm happy that today, finally, we actually are all on the same page that this is not a hoax, or fake news. But can we maybe keep the whole reality thing going here? How do we stop this exponential virus growth if we don't actually act like we are all in this together? And once we get ourselves well, how do we stay well?

 

Some of you guys are supposed to be the experts at making America great again. I'm all ears. Let's hear it.

Edited March 17, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[+ goosh69]

So is denial, I guess.

 

I get the point that if the issue is Americans getting sick and dying, a sentence is about all we can afford to read.

 

That said, here are two stories with polar opposite views of reality and government. Turns out other people can be as verbose as me.

 

This Is An Emergency!

For the good of the country, and especially for the good of our leaders, we must prorogue Congress. We must do it today! And since we do not know how long this plague will last, we must do it indefinitely.

 

As I write, the news has just come in that a total of 60 people—60!—have died from the scourge of the Wuhan virus. Do you realize that in this country you have a 0.000000155963303 chance of contracting and dying from this dread disease? Especially if you are over 80 and in poor health.

 

The Real Threat(s) from Coronavirus

Social distancing is nothing compared to a crisis that leads to mass casualties, economic collapse, and a legacy of bad policies that leaves the country weaker than ever before.

 

When there are more patients than resources, for example, more patients who require intubation and a ventilator, than there are ventilators, then doctors have to choose who gets a treatment that under normal circumstances would be available to any and all who needed it. And then the fatalities shoot up.

 

 

This is about preparedness. And facts, facts, and only the facts. Both of those articles are written by American Greatness, a right-wing journal. They are both worth reading in full. They describe completely different views of America, completely different views of government,, and - most importantly right now - completely different views of how to save American lives. And they were both written by conservatives, one day apart.

 

The first article shows so much contempt for Congress that it sarcastically suggests we should just get rid of it indefinitely. Some version of that might happen. Today Marco Rubio said we can't assume that the Senate will be able to convene in a month, if lots of Senators are sick or quarantined. Woo hoo! Problem solved, right? Lock the dipshits away!

 

There's a few minor problems, though. We will probably need about a $1 trillion Depression Prevention package. So for people who love $1 trillion deficits, woo hoo! You get double the pleasure, double the fun. Let's make it $2 trillion, shall we? Or would you rather have airline bankruptcies, massive small business failures, workers without paychecks, and - perhaps importantly - too few ventilators to keep you and me alive? Not to worry, of course, given that there is only a 0.000000155963303 chance of contracting this dread disease.

 

Somebody issued the Reality Memo today. Instead of saying that the number of cases would go from 15 to 5 to 0, we now have more realistic advice: stop having gathering of more than 10 people. Even that is poor advice if we really want to stop this thing. That said, it's dramatic progress from a complete disconnect from reality.

 

The second article in American Greatness, one day later, is actually grounded in the dire reality we are in. We are now talking about a stock market freefall. And a global death toll that is growing exponentially. Hey, why worry, right?

 

Fauci’s warnings

 

“I think we should really be overly aggressive and get criticized for overreacting,” he also said on “Meet” yesterday, adding: “I think Americans should be prepared that they're going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing.”

 

And here was Fauci on CNN: “I would like to see a dramatic diminution of the personal interaction that we see in restaurants and in bars.”

 

 

Granted, these dipshits in the government are always reactive. Nothing ever changes, right? And not that anybody actually wants to read long articles about how we must collectively prepare as a nation. Like right now. Immediately. Urgently.

 

The cities with the most infections are now all moving into lockdown. We may get to martial law. I actually hope we do. Because that way everybody might realize this is lethal.

 

For now, we're still at voluntary compliance. It has worked in South Korea, where everybody actually expected their government to coordinate a massive pro-active effort to save lives.

 

Listening to Dr. Fauci could make sense. He was one of the top virologists in the middle of the global effort that spared Gay men of a permanent death sentence called AIDS.

 

And yet, we have a massive problem.

 

 

My point here is not to be partisan. It is to be factual. Like that second American Greatness article is. It states, correctly, that we are staring "mass casualties" and "economic collapse" in the face. So let's see. How about if we go out to dinner and celebrate?

 

In fairness, that poll was completed before Fauci said stop going out to dinner. Or Trump finally dissed gatherings of more than 10 people.

 

This "government dipshits arr wrong" attitude is a huge fucking preparedness problem right now. The scientists like Dr. Fauci, who are desperately trying to stop another killer virus, are the ones being pro-active. We're the ones being reactive, and wrong.

 

This is a nonpartisan problem. 64 % of Democrats and 88 % of Republicans intend to ignore Dr. Fauci's advice, according to that poll. I'm sorry, but it is irresponsible and dangerous to mock government and write that 80 year olds have a 0.000000155963303 of contracting COVID-19 or dying of it. The only good news is that a 12 % plunge in the Dow has perhaps been a needed wake up call.

 

We are both half right. What China did in the first half of January is a case study in reactive government. They could not be counted on to save the lives of Chinese citizens. But what they did after that is the exact opposite. They wiped out a virus in a few months. The total new infections in Wuhan today is one. We should only be so lucky!

 

11 extreme measures China took to contain the coronavirus show the rest of the world is unprepared for COVID-19

 

Not to drag out the idea of being prepared any further, but that article lists 11 things that probably saved millions of Chinese lives. The number of infections was below 1000 when China went to extreme measures. The US is closing in on 5000 cases now. That's doubled from a few days ago.

 

Of those 11 points, this is the most relevant to the idea of collective preparedness:

 

In contrast to reports in the US of people clamoring over the last hand-sanitizer, Aylward said he was struck by the attitude of people in China that they were all in this together. "This is not a village," he said of Wuhan, which is bigger than New York City. "As you drive into this city, in the dead of night, the lights on, it's a ghost town. But behind every window and every skyscraper there are people cooperating with this response."

 

There are two very important rewards for this kind of collective preparedness., whether it's what China did harshly or South Korea did softly.

 

First, there is only one new reported case in Wuhan today. There are 20 more cases in China, all imports from abroad. So now China will have to build a Great Wall, to keep the killer virus out, until we get our shit together. Sure makes democracy looks good, right? Woo hoo!

 

Second, the Dow has now plunged 31.7 % from its pre-crisis peak. The Shanghai index is 10.9 % below its pre-crisis peak. By the time we're done, the US will be lucky if we only have three times the death and economic damage as China. Government can be pro-active, and save lives. And when it does, there seems to be a huge payoff.

 

too much period. Too much nonsense too. But I’d note that Chinese stocks have fallen over 50% from their 2015 peak - 4/5 of that since before 2020. So the Shanghai composite had a lot less to fall.

[Guest]

QUARANTINI

You can’t find toilet paper, everyone is stuck in the house from school and work and everyone just got into a huge fight over your 100th game of monopoly. What are you going to do? Make a Quarantini!

 

https://thenovicechefblog.com/quarantini/

[+ tassojunior]

Population density, the holy grail of the Smart Growth crowd, has a lot to do with a pandemic's spread. High rises with common doors and elevators and subways and buses and crowded sidewalks make a pandemic 100x worse. The US will do better in our sparsely-populated areas and suburbs and with people who drive cars. It may not even hit most people there.

 

It's weird that we are now in semi-shutdown in dense population centers. My desire would be to get out of a dense center to a rural area for the duration of a pandemic.

[+ tassojunior]

[wklukas]

Population density, the holy grail of the Smart Growth crowd, has a lot to do with a pandemic's spread. High rises with common doors and elevators and subways and buses and crowded sidewalks make a pandemic 100x worse. The US will do better in our sparsely-populated areas and suburbs and with people who drive cars. It may not even hit most people there.

 

It's weird that we are now in semi-shutdown in dense population centers. My desire would be to get out of a dense center to a rural area for the duration of a pandemic.

 

My first plan, which I started to arrange last week, was to travel to Israel & stay with some relatives for at least a few weeks who live in a large & comfortable home far south in the Negev desert highlands.....about 150 kms away from anywhere.....

When travel restrictions, difficulties & hassles for traveling into Israel were initiated, change of plans -

headed out now on Thursday to hang with friends who live in Truth or Consequences - a delightful, artistic, laid-back, hippie-type town isolated in the middle of nowhere, New Mexico.....these friends also have their own private hot spring on their property.....party time - eat, drink, (smoke weed) & be merry

[+ tassojunior]

[MEDIA=twitter]1239523796542992387[/MEDIA]

[+ tassojunior]

Whole state of Florida closing down. No groups of over 10 on beaches, restaurants 50% capacity.

 

https://www.fox13news.com/news/florida-closing-bars-nightclubs-for-30-days-issues-sweeping-changes-for-restaurants-beaches?

Florida closing bars, nightclubs for 30 days; issues sweeping changes for restaurants, beaches

[+ Travis69]

Whole state of Florida closing down. No groups of over 10 on beaches, restaurants 50% capacity.

 

https://www.fox13news.com/news/florida-closing-bars-nightclubs-for-30-days-issues-sweeping-changes-for-restaurants-beaches?

Florida closing bars, nightclubs for 30 days; issues sweeping changes for restaurants, beaches

I wonder if trump's properties will have to obey or will they be granted EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE.:rolleyes: Also, is it really smart to have all those people crowded together on Air Force One for his weekend getaways???????????

[+ WilliamM]

The Kentucky Derby has been cancelled/postponed.

[RealAvalon]

Stephen,

 

Brevity is a Virtue.

From his avatar, briefs are a virtue

[RealAvalon]

This just in:

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/03/canada-announces-it-will-exclusively-import-covid-19-from-us/

[+ pitman]

You're absolutely right...I used the term "surgical masks" generically. I did buy N-95's. I also have normal surgical masks. For me, while less effective, their presence would remind me not to do the 4th bullet point and/or make me more conscious of how/when I do it.

It sounds like you are well-prepared. On the other hand many healthcare workers who are putting their lives on the line to protect us all are at extreme risk due to the lack of available masks. I was wondering how many masks and of what type you have. Since you have stated that "we are all in this together" would you be willing to donate some of your masks to your local hospitals in order to help save the lives of their patients and staff?

 

A Top Cancer Hospital Faces Mask Shortages As COVID-19 Cases Show Up In Staff And Patients

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rosalindadams/a-top-cancer-hospital-faces-mask-shortages-as-covid-19

[Guest]

This is video taken recently in Thailand of monkeys, who are used to being fed by tourists, going into a frenzy from hunger. I think that there is a lesson here...

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10206801064741888

[+ purplekow]

The hospital I work at opened a 10 bed ER screen area for Covid and a 25 bed Covid inpatient unit yesterday. Today, both are full today. And it is only Tuesday.

[+ tassojunior]

Hello US airports CBP stations. This is how you treat a new super-contagious pandemic there are no easy tests for. Not by herding thousands into a hall for 6 hours. Although I saw where someone came from London to LA yesterday and was through in 20 minutes with zero health checks. Russia has only a few dozen active case, and sorry Democratic Party fuckwads if that's "praising socialism":

 

[MEDIA=twitter]1239888204230275072[/MEDIA]

Edited March 17, 2020 by tassojunior