The spread of the Chinese coronavirus

[Guest]

Contrary to prior assertions, it spreads easier than expected

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/26/health/coronavirus-spread-symptoms-chinese-officials/index.html

 

On Sunday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said the risk to the American public for contracting this virus continues to be low.

"We at CDC don't have clear evidence that patients are infectious before symptom onset, but we are actively investigating that possibility," Messonnier said.

"We need to be preparing as if this is a pandemic, but I continue to hope that it is not," she added.

 

And are we preparing???

 

 

"All is well! We'll see what happens ...." says Dotard.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Oaktown

[Guest]

How about bat soup?

 

How about wide spread panic?

 

[Guest]

If this virus is transmittable before symptoms develop.....we’re fucked..

 

So if a person is infected but not showing any symptoms (asymptomatic), how would they be screened?

 

Dr. Fauci pointed out that China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, said publicly Sunday that the virus could be transmitted by an infected person even before symptoms appear.

“We really need to know what is the scientific basis of saying the virus is spread by someone who doesn’t have any symptoms,” Fauci told The Washington Post. “That was a major potential game-changer that gets spoken to us in a press briefing. We should have seen the data.”

This could affect how the U.S. screens people traveling from China.

“If people can be transmitting and infecting without any symptoms, that has a major impact on how you screen people,” he said.

[Guest]

On Sunday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said the risk to the American public for contracting this virus continues to be low.

"We at CDC don't have clear evidence that patients are infectious before symptom onset, but we are actively investigating that possibility," Messonnier said.

"We need to be preparing as if this is a pandemic, but I continue to hope that it is not," she added.

 

And are we preparing???

 

 

"All is well! We'll see what happens ...." says Dotard.

But yet, the surgical masks I ordered Thursday arrived yesterday.

If I ordered them today, the shipping date is early March.

Somebody’s getting prepared and it’s not just me

[RealAvalon]

On Sunday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said the risk to the American public for contracting this virus continues to be low.

"We at CDC don't have clear evidence that patients are infectious before symptom onset, but we are actively investigating that possibility," Messonnier said.

"We need to be preparing as if this is a pandemic, but I continue to hope that it is not," she added.

 

And are we preparing???

 

 

"All is well! We'll see what happens ...." says Dotard.

Yet another reason for Canadian style health care, a coordinated national response. The two people identified, a couple, the husband is in a negative pressure hospital room, and the wife is at home. Health professionals are following up on any contacts the two had on the plane from Wuhan, China, to assess health status and any risk of further infections. None of the individuals involved will need to worry about a bill arriving for their care, and are fully cooperating with public health.

 

And no one is going to be wasting time and money ordering masks off of fucking Amazon. And masks, those are useful if you have the virus and don't want to spread it to others. They aren't prevention of getting it. To prevent getting it, was your hands a lot and don't touch your face.

Edited January 31, 2020 by RealAvalon

[Guest]

But yet, the surgical masks I ordered Thursday arrived yesterday.

If I ordered them today, the shipping date is early March.

Somebody’s getting prepared and it’s not just me

Japan also reported its first case Tuesday of infection afflicting someone who had never visited the Wuhan epicenter but had only come into contact with Chinese tourists.

The Japanese man, a tour bus driver in his 60s, drove two groups of Chinese tourists from Wuhan earlier this month, Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said, adding that the man had worn a mask when he was working. There are six cases in Japan so far.

[+ tassojunior]

FWIW I did see a chart (can't find it now) that says this is not as lethal a virus as most (although it can be in people with other conditions). On that chart Ebola is by far the most deadly.

 

Small relief.

[+ Keith30309]

‪Xi Jinping Vows To Combat Coronavirus By Making It Illegal To Mention

 

BEIJING—In an effort to assuage concerns about how his government has handled the deadly disease outbreak, Chinese president Xi Jinping held a press conference Monday to announce plans to combat the coronavirus by making it illegal to mention within the next week. “We are directing massive resources towards eradicating the slightest hint of any person speaking about the virus, and I promise you that any conversation or literature pertaining to the virus will be completely eliminated during the next seven days,” said Xi, warning that if immediate action was not taken, it could be too late to stop the spread of information. “We have already seen far too many senseless deaths as a result of this outbreak, so I vow here and now that those official death toll numbers will remain unchanged.” Xi closed his remarks by urging anyone who believed they were suffering from the outbreak or knew someone who was to come forward so they could be executed.

[+ Kufrol]

‪Xi Jinping Vows To Combat Coronavirus By Making It Illegal To Mention

 

BEIJING—In an effort to assuage concerns about how his government has handled the deadly disease outbreak, Chinese president Xi Jinping held a press conference Monday to announce plans to combat the coronavirus by making it illegal to mention within the next week. “We are directing massive resources towards eradicating the slightest hint of any person speaking about the virus, and I promise you that any conversation or literature pertaining to the virus will be completely eliminated during the next seven days,” said Xi, warning that if immediate action was not taken, it could be too late to stop the spread of information. “We have already seen far too many senseless deaths as a result of this outbreak, so I vow here and now that those official death toll numbers will remain unchanged.” Xi closed his remarks by urging anyone who believed they were suffering from the outbreak or knew someone who was to come forward so they could be executed.

^^ The ONION

[Guest]

A taste of things to come?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1234620/coronavirus-latest-news-death-toll-china-news-flight-japan-shanghai-passengers-scared

Edited January 28, 2020 by Oaktown

[Guest]

Japan also reported its first case Tuesday of infection afflicting someone who had never visited the Wuhan epicenter but had only come into contact with Chinese tourists.

The Japanese man, a tour bus driver in his 60s, drove two groups of Chinese tourists from Wuhan earlier this month, Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said, adding that the man had worn a mask when he was working. There are six cases in Japan so far.

I’m not an epidemiologist, but I suppose there are other ways to contract by touching something and then rubbing one’s eyes or nose. I also ordered more surgical gloves...I don’t presume they protect me, but if I ever found need to use them, they’d be a reminder to me not to touch my face between hand washings...

 

in any event, I shall neither isolate myself or live in fear, but alas, I’m also not going to seek to catch anything from anyone

Edited January 30, 2020 by BnaC

[DR FREUD]

an interesting sidebar to this discussion. There have been 8200 deaths so far this season in the US from the flu.

[mike carey]

an interesting sidebar to this discussion. There have been 8200 deaths so far this season in the US from the flu.

That's a telling observation. For all the commentary about the coronavirus, it has yet to be established that it is more dangerous than seasonal influenza. It may well prove to be, but we don't know yet.

[Guest]

But BA doesn't cancel flights due to the flu:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-british-airways-cancels-all-flights-to-and-from-china.html

[+ quoththeraven]

But BA doesn't cancel flights due to the flu:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-british-airways-cancels-all-flights-to-and-from-china.html

Which really only tells us that flu already factors into our risk-taking (or more accurately feels familiar and inevitable, so no one panics about it).

 

That's a good opportunity to point out that there's a certain literal "yellow fever" aspect to this.

[Guest]

Also in Wuhan:

 

Charles Lieber, the chair of Harvard University's Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, has been arrested and criminally charged with making "false, fictitious and fraudulent statements" to the U.S. Defense Department about his ties to a Chinese government program to recruit foreign scientists and researchers.

 

The Justice Department says Lieber, 60, lied about his contact with the Chinese program known as the Thousand Talents Plan, which the U.S. has previously flagged as a serious intelligence concern. He also is accused of lying about about a lucrative contract he signed with China's Wuhan University of Technology.

 

The arrangement between Lieber and the Chinese institution spanned "significant" periods of time between at least 2012 and 2017, according to the affidavit. It says the deal called for Lieber to be paid up to $50,000 a month, in addition to $150,000 per year "for living and personal expenses."

 

"Lieber was also awarded more than $1.5 million by WUT and the Chinese government to establish a research lab and conduct research at WUT," the document states.

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/28/800442646/acclaimed-harvard-scientist-is-arrested-accused-of-lying-about-ties-to-china

[+ quoththeraven]

Outside of China, cases are not spiking. They have turned up in 18 countries and appear to be concentrated among people who were in Wuhan before the travel ban started or had close contact with people who were there. This led a WHO emergency panel to decline to declare the outbreak an international emergency last week.

 

The deaths reported by China are largely among the elderly or people with underlying health conditions, putting them at high risk for pneumonia. A commentary in the Lancet medical journal estimated a 2.9% mortality risk from the virus, compared to 10% for SARS, but added that number is likely to decrease as more mild cases are documented. At the same time, “there is no room for complacency,” said that report, noting the 1918 Spanish flu killed around 50 million people worldwide with a mortality rate of less than 5%.

 

To put the risk in more context, the current US flu season has killed 54 infants so far, according to CDC. And in the first two weeks of 2020, the flu has killed more than 5,000 people in the US, mostly through associated pneumonia.

 

Others have suggested imports from China could carry a risk of transmission overseas. But coronavirus particles die within a few hours outside a host cell, according to Messonnier. So there is little risk of commerce from China spreading the outbreak.

 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/danvergano/coronavirus-cases-deaths-flu?__twitter_impression=true

 

(The article also says masks are only partially effective.)

[mike carey]

That's a good opportunity to point out that there's a certain literal "yellow fever" aspect to this.

There is certainly that. The Australian government has announced that if it is able to mount an evacuation flight from Wuhan, the passengers will be quarantined at the immigration detention centre on Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean, something that it was fairly quickly noted would not have been proposed if the evacuation flight were coming from, say Aspen.

[Guest]

Outside of China, cases are not spiking. They have turned up in 18 countries and appear to be concentrated among people who were in Wuhan before the travel ban started or had close contact with people who were there. This led a WHO emergency panel to decline to declare the outbreak an international emergency last week.

 

The deaths reported by China are largely among the elderly or people with underlying health conditions, putting them at high risk for pneumonia. A commentary in the Lancet medical journal estimated a 2.9% mortality risk from the virus, compared to 10% for SARS, but added that number is likely to decrease as more mild cases are documented. At the same time, “there is no room for complacency,” said that report, noting the 1918 Spanish flu killed around 50 million people worldwide with a mortality rate of less than 5%.

 

To put the risk in more context, the current US flu season has killed 54 infants so far, according to CDC. And in the first two weeks of 2020, the flu has killed more than 5,000 people in the US, mostly through associated pneumonia.

 

Others have suggested imports from China could carry a risk of transmission overseas. But coronavirus particles die within a few hours outside a host cell, according to Messonnier. So there is little risk of commerce from China spreading the outbreak.

 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/danvergano/coronavirus-cases-deaths-flu?__twitter_impression=true

 

(The article also says masks are only partially effective.)

 

Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview that he thought it would become clear in a few days whether the outbreak could be contained.

 

“If we’re seeing widespread transmission, thousands or tens of thousands of infections in the community, I don’t see how this gets controlled,” Dr. Frieden said. “On the other hand, if we see a SARS-like situation, where with incredible effort they were able to isolate people, tamp down the spread, then we’re in a containment situation.”

 

[+ ArVaGuy]

Last week there was a news article on Yahoo News referencing the Biological testing lab that opened in Wuhan in 2017. The article appeared for only a few hours and then mysteriously vanished when I searched for it later in the day. The article expressed concerns that the Chinese labs were not following accepted protocols and could introduce a deadly pathogen into local communities.

 

Today I was finally able to find a similar article via Reddit referencing the opening of this lab in Wuhan in 2017. This article also mentions concerns about how the Chinese would manage this facility. Here are a few excerpts from that article in Nature.

 

My personal theory is that this coronavirus situation has been on going in Wuhan for much longer than the Chinese are willing to admit. The virus has spread so rapidly that the local officials couldn’t cover up the crisis any longer. Nearly 60 million people are in quarantine, this is mind boggling. The central government is afraid of the threat to stability. Placing the blame on the “wild meat” markets offered a convenience in scapegoating.

 

What if, due to poor testing protocol, this virus escaped into the Wuhan community? In addition to monkeys, bats were also used in this lab for testing purposes. A few could have accidentally been released and subsequently spread this virus into the wild bat and other animal populations.

 

The Chinese have been consuming wild exotics for centuries. Sure there have been outbreaks of illness such as salmonella and the like. But for the coronavirus to take such hold so quickly indicates there’s some other catalyst for this outbreak and it didn’t just spontaneously gestate in a span of weeks. There’s more here than we realize.

 

Here’s the link and a couple excerpts.

 

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

 

A laboratory in Wuhan is on the cusp of being cleared to work with the world’s most dangerous pathogens. The move is part of a plan to build between five and seven biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) labs across the Chinese mainland by 2025, and has generated much excitement, as well as some concerns.

 

Some scientists outside China worry about pathogens escaping, and the addition of a biological dimension to geopolitical tensions between China and other nations. But Chinese microbiologists are celebrating their entrance to the elite cadre empowered to wrestle with the world’s greatest biological threats. ....

 

But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. “Diversity of viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important,” he says.

 

Yuan says that he has worked to address this issue with staff. “We tell them the most important thing is that they report what they have or haven’t done,” he says. And the lab’s international collaborations will increase openness. “Transparency is the basis of the lab,” he adds.

 

The plan to expand into a network heightens such concerns. One BSL-4 lab in Harbin is already awaiting accreditation; the next two are expected to be in Beijing and Kunming, the latter focused on using monkey models to study disease.

 

Lina says that China’s size justifies this scale, and that the opportunity to combine BSL-4 research with an abundance of research monkeys — Chinese researchers face less red tape than those in the West when it comes to research on primates — could be powerful. “If you want to test vaccines or antivirals, you need a non-human primate model,” says Lina.

 

But Ebright is not convinced of the need for more than one BSL-4 lab in mainland China. He suspects that the expansion there is a reaction to the networks in the United States and Europe, which he says are also unwarranted. He adds that governments will assume that such excess capacity is for the potential development of bioweapons.

 

“These facilities are inherently dual use,” he says. The prospect of ramping up opportunities to inject monkeys with pathogens also worries, rather than excites, him: “They can run, they can scratch, they can bite.”

[EZEtoGRU]

A Cruise ship is docked in Italy and all passengers are being held on board as two guests from China are suspected of having the virus. Will be interesting to see how the authorities and the cruise line handle that. I feel sorry for everyone on-board.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-update-china-spread-intl-hnk/index.html

[MikeBiDude]

Corona Beer Virus? How gullible are people?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2020/01/29/coronavirus-corona-beer-surges-on-google-trends-as-virus-spreads/4606997002/

[mike carey]

Corona Beer Virus? How gullible are people?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2020/01/29/coronavirus-corona-beer-surges-on-google-trends-as-virus-spreads/4606997002/

I have no words.

[Quincy_7]

If this virus is transmittable before symptoms develop.....we’re fucked.

 

It may be wise to refrain from hiring until this passes.

[Guest]

It may be wise to refrain from hiring until this passes.

 

I totally concur, regardless of the providers ethnicity.