SirBillybob

Montreal is finally trending close to the overall Quebec provincial rate of new “official” reported CoV cases, about 1 in 65,000 population daily, a steady decline that I think now puts it out of contention as the exclusive provincial city-specific “hot spot”. Whew. Montreal likely now figures as among a scattered grouping of urban areas within the province that drives up the tally. Quebec overall now also appears to be on an equal footing with Ontario. Ontario had never spiked to the same degree but is showing a slower reduction in new infections.

Montreal is finally trending close to the overall Quebec provincial rate of new “official” reported CoV cases, about 1 in 65,000 population daily, a steady decline that I think now puts it out of contention as the exclusive provincial city-specific “hot spot”. Whew. Montreal likely now figures as among a scattered grouping of urban areas within the province that drives up the tally. Quebec overall now also appears to be on an equal footing with Ontario. Ontario had never spiked to the same degree but is showing a slower reduction in new infections.

Paragonya in Zürich reported it can accommodate up to 130 patrons! That would be close to a tin of sardines. Apart from queue spacing at reception, emphasis on protecting employees, and typical disinfecting (mattresses, etc), it appears that anything goes in terms of interaction with trade.

As far as dates, what we know is there is no planned or even tentative timeline set for bars in Quebec. Restaurants, and bars/clubs with licensed kitchens, are able to open today in Quebec and June 22nd in Montreal with the regulations (density, spacing, hygiene) one would expect. I suppose the coronavirus daily rate will be closely monitored prior to any future additional openings in the venue hierarchy. BTW, Le 281 male stripper club for women was already slated to close September 1st as I believe the building was sold to a developer. This may eventually draw more business to “ladies nights” in our usual haunts. I cannot imagine anyone taking the risk to pump money into a new venue.

Ah, lol, I was going to say the Belgium inquiry was about mortality rates, but that was your inquiry. I think it got a little off track and ‘sprouted’ suppositions about transmission rates and associated factors. I find it harder to flex muscles about Brussels or elsewhere the broader the terms/variables.

Actually, a denominator of 850 cases in Andorra and 675 cases in San Marino is not a terrible basis for outcome and population calculations in those small landlocked nations. They would offer poorer cross-national comparisons in chi-squared analyses but for the relatively high mortality rate of Covid-19. Granted, each is embedded or in close proximity to a hot zone. I wonder, too, if a smaller (developed) nation is advantaged by more accurate organizational capacity in compiling data. I believe, however, that Iceland is the winner among all nations on that count. Seeing as cruise ships, etc, are up for grabs, I’ll be a princess and toss in my city of a few million, Montreal ... if it were an independent small yet densely populated nation, places third behind San Marino and Belgium in per capita pandemic mortality. The weather has been great; I have not used my umbrella in almost 3 months.

What is striking is the disparity among countries in the ratio of ‘recovered’:’mortality’ outcomes. Belgium reports one death for every two recoveries. Health officials there, when criticized for scaring future tourists away, etc, counter that they are being radically transparent and are including “presumptives” ... that underreporting is widespread elsewhere. Again, perhaps a lack of standardization in tallying leads to the apparent contradiction of San Marino reporting a much lower death rate by infection but much higher death rate by population compared to Belgium. But here is where the numbers get really tricky: in spite of Belgium reporting 37% of outcomes to date as death, only 1% of the current thousands of cases are deemed to be serious or critical. Population is the greatest constant; followed by mortality (however skewed by erroneous estimates, upwards by presumptives and downwards by undiagnosed/home-based); and lastly case count, skewed by reported versus actual, also determined in part by cross/sectional general asymptomatic-inclusive test sampling (limited by short antigen detection duration) and by the more accurate antibody testing for truer epidemiological rates. Of course, other variables such as age and long-term care outbreaks impact on how to interpret the figures as far as general population risk. Broad-based antibody testing, including post-mortem where necessary is the only way to reconcile case count and mortality. Otherwise, I respect the disease but suspect the tallies.

Paragonya Wellness Club (Zürich) will re-open June 6th. The country has only gone as far as to commit to most EU visitors as of July 9th (with some, like Italy, up in the air), and depending on infection rates going forward, so permission to Americans and Canadians, etc, could be a ways off.

I also recently called the Quebec hotline for screening because I had a very sore throat like one typically gets prior to a rhinovirus or adenovirus. I had already recovered in March from a common cold. I was rejected for an appointment for nasal/pharyngeal swab. Today I am going for routine swabs for strep and gonorrhea (was sexually active in February) because they are authorized. Act 2 of the shit show. LOL

Shifting gears a bit: I think I am or should be envious of Americans’ capacity to acquire a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test. Am I correct in that it is obtainable there, even if you have to pay out of pocket? One candidate in Canada has been approved but the authorities do not want general access. It might be because they wish a structured roll-out to accurately assess general population reactivity. So far, I believe the research initiative is one million tests over two years. That seems too long to wait. I suspect there will be a type of (above-board?) “black market” because the one test has approval and the company may have a free reign to sell it outside of research jurisdiction. Because one’s primary care or other MD might not want to be in the cross-fire it might be necessary to go to an alternate private clinic for a test requisition to take to the lab partnering with the antibody test manufacturer. What a shit show.

I recommend not distorting your history because there is strong ongoing gay advocacy. Better to challenge than lie. I believe some of the activism results have been quick in relation to convalescent plasma donation.

I am gearing up for Valhalla Murders (Netflix), something broodily Nordic to contrast with satirical comedy The Great. The Great is on Hulu, not easily accessed in Canada, but I discovered it is on Apple TV where I have the initial year free. Near the end of latest Stranger Things. An inevitable gay self-outing between nosebleeds.

Sorry, I might have missed somebody making that assertion. Myself, I made it clear what context I was using for comparison.

You are correct as far as comparing devastation. If you look at recent rolling 7-day average death rate per capita, or increases over a reasonably representative chunk of recent past, however, you get a very different picture than if you calculate total-to-date deaths per capita. Given that daily infection and death tallies are on the downswing following first wave peak, I think that a more proximal retrospective is useful because the number of deaths behind us does not predict transnational contagion. There are a few topic headings that contain our attempts to discuss the data. It is a bit of a challenge to decide where to put what. There are a number of ways to calculate mortality trends, and for purposes of our online ‘seminar’ so to speak, it is important to include and define your numerator, denominator, and temporal frame. Also, any absolute number is not a rate. A rate always has a denominator. I think all contributors here are pretty good generally at using “rate” correctly, but we can compare notes more easily if we always state what rate we are referencing.

The plot can be thickened ad Infinitum. Spain is a third to USA, minimally surpassed by Russia, in absolute case tally but a much lower death:recovered ratio compared to USA. If USA is obscuring/suppressing Covid-19 death tally then one might assume Spain is doing so even more. I also thought that there has been conjecture about unrelated mortality occurring as a result of lower uptake of pre-pandemic needed medical care. Of course, if data collection is not standardized comparisons are challenging. I don’t spend all day on this but note that Worldometer, where I access data, has attempted to calculate actual deaths (composite of confirmed deaths plus proportion excess deaths attributable to Covid-19) in contrast to confirmed deaths alone, in NYC. A key variable to factor in is reasonably accurate antibody data.

As I review today’s data, the Canadian argument for border closure is flimsy on epidemiological grounds, unless Americans were to be flocking in from hotspots and we had to admit them to circus tent pop-ups. Over the last month the total Canadian case tally multiplied by a factor of 2.45; American case tally by a factor of 2.16, and the per capita mortality rate has been on par of late, yesterday (May 17 single day) USA:Canada ratio merely 1.04 Total Canadian death tally over past month multiplied by a factor of 4.8 compared to USA an increase of x2.6 The logarithmic trajectories for both cumulative case count and mortality count are not at all looking more promising for Canada compared to our neighbours south of the border. I suspect Ontario’s premier would be keen to suppress this take on the data. The one advantage in Canada is a mortality rate of 13% to USA’s 21%, both a percentage of respective closed-case outcomes. As this comparison figure deviates from recent per capita short-term rolling averages (as I indicated close to 1:1), it may be an artefact of absolute number differences, a dropping USA death rate over the full duration to date, definitional criteria for the combination of recovered/discharged, and socioeconomic vulnerability/disparity in the USA. That said, ‘my American cousins’ are well advised to shun me and fellow Montrealers (faring much more poorly than USA as a whole), and run us out of Ogunquit this summer.

And a more theoretical piece: https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

Here is a weather study that may be a bit premature due to its coverage of earlier months, up to end of March, so about 16% of current case tally: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195330/pdf/main.pdf

A recent poll suggests Canadians’ trust in Americans has bombed from 58% to 33% of respondents. The USA shutdown protests come across as more whacko and all the bad is highlighted in news cycles. Americans trust in Canadians is currently 71% and is higher than their own trust (67%) in fellow Americans. Similarly, Canadians comfort in visiting USA is vastly lower than vice versa. Note that rural Canadians also don’t want urban Canadian dwellers coming to their secondary summer properties. There is currently considerable essential business travel across the border, so trade is ‘as usual’, notwithstanding supply/demand changes. Cross-border tourism restriction has reciprocal economic impact. That argument is perhaps more one of convenience and freedom of movement than one of differential economic loss. Interestingly, the current per capita death rates in Quebec are similar to USA overall. French-speaking Canadians are also the least worried subgroup in North America and likely the most open to cross-border travel.

At this point none of our laps have limited seating capacity.

I got it a few weeks ago from two sources. Ignored it and made no password changes. All they ever have on you is a password you may have used at some point. It is not unusual for a password associated with your email to have been breached at some point. The one quoted to me had not been used for years. If the scam had legs it would include a sample image of the footage they claim to possess.

Just wash your spectacles with soap and water. This disinfects them but also leaves a transparent film that repels your exhalation moisture. It works.

Pedestrianized but no ball canopy, no terraces for now, and no usual crowds following fireworks season events.

Quaranteens, clever. Plaguers; Hindsights.