SirBillybob

Sorry, I might have missed somebody making that assertion. Myself, I made it clear what context I was using for comparison.

You are correct as far as comparing devastation. If you look at recent rolling 7-day average death rate per capita, or increases over a reasonably representative chunk of recent past, however, you get a very different picture than if you calculate total-to-date deaths per capita. Given that daily infection and death tallies are on the downswing following first wave peak, I think that a more proximal retrospective is useful because the number of deaths behind us does not predict transnational contagion. There are a few topic headings that contain our attempts to discuss the data. It is a bit of a challenge to decide where to put what. There are a number of ways to calculate mortality trends, and for purposes of our online ‘seminar’ so to speak, it is important to include and define your numerator, denominator, and temporal frame. Also, any absolute number is not a rate. A rate always has a denominator. I think all contributors here are pretty good generally at using “rate” correctly, but we can compare notes more easily if we always state what rate we are referencing.

The plot can be thickened ad Infinitum. Spain is a third to USA, minimally surpassed by Russia, in absolute case tally but a much lower death:recovered ratio compared to USA. If USA is obscuring/suppressing Covid-19 death tally then one might assume Spain is doing so even more. I also thought that there has been conjecture about unrelated mortality occurring as a result of lower uptake of pre-pandemic needed medical care. Of course, if data collection is not standardized comparisons are challenging. I don’t spend all day on this but note that Worldometer, where I access data, has attempted to calculate actual deaths (composite of confirmed deaths plus proportion excess deaths attributable to Covid-19) in contrast to confirmed deaths alone, in NYC. A key variable to factor in is reasonably accurate antibody data.

As I review today’s data, the Canadian argument for border closure is flimsy on epidemiological grounds, unless Americans were to be flocking in from hotspots and we had to admit them to circus tent pop-ups. Over the last month the total Canadian case tally multiplied by a factor of 2.45; American case tally by a factor of 2.16, and the per capita mortality rate has been on par of late, yesterday (May 17 single day) USA:Canada ratio merely 1.04 Total Canadian death tally over past month multiplied by a factor of 4.8 compared to USA an increase of x2.6 The logarithmic trajectories for both cumulative case count and mortality count are not at all looking more promising for Canada compared to our neighbours south of the border. I suspect Ontario’s premier would be keen to suppress this take on the data. The one advantage in Canada is a mortality rate of 13% to USA’s 21%, both a percentage of respective closed-case outcomes. As this comparison figure deviates from recent per capita short-term rolling averages (as I indicated close to 1:1), it may be an artefact of absolute number differences, a dropping USA death rate over the full duration to date, definitional criteria for the combination of recovered/discharged, and socioeconomic vulnerability/disparity in the USA. That said, ‘my American cousins’ are well advised to shun me and fellow Montrealers (faring much more poorly than USA as a whole), and run us out of Ogunquit this summer.

And a more theoretical piece: https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

Here is a weather study that may be a bit premature due to its coverage of earlier months, up to end of March, so about 16% of current case tally: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195330/pdf/main.pdf

A recent poll suggests Canadians’ trust in Americans has bombed from 58% to 33% of respondents. The USA shutdown protests come across as more whacko and all the bad is highlighted in news cycles. Americans trust in Canadians is currently 71% and is higher than their own trust (67%) in fellow Americans. Similarly, Canadians comfort in visiting USA is vastly lower than vice versa. Note that rural Canadians also don’t want urban Canadian dwellers coming to their secondary summer properties. There is currently considerable essential business travel across the border, so trade is ‘as usual’, notwithstanding supply/demand changes. Cross-border tourism restriction has reciprocal economic impact. That argument is perhaps more one of convenience and freedom of movement than one of differential economic loss. Interestingly, the current per capita death rates in Quebec are similar to USA overall. French-speaking Canadians are also the least worried subgroup in North America and likely the most open to cross-border travel.

At this point none of our laps have limited seating capacity.

I got it a few weeks ago from two sources. Ignored it and made no password changes. All they ever have on you is a password you may have used at some point. It is not unusual for a password associated with your email to have been breached at some point. The one quoted to me had not been used for years. If the scam had legs it would include a sample image of the footage they claim to possess.

Just wash your spectacles with soap and water. This disinfects them but also leaves a transparent film that repels your exhalation moisture. It works.

Pedestrianized but no ball canopy, no terraces for now, and no usual crowds following fireworks season events.

Quaranteens, clever. Plaguers; Hindsights.

Good suggestions, @MscleLovr. I keep all my social media “private” except for requests I accept, my front page profile photo is not my image, and platforms are unlinked to phone number. A few providers over the years, including some in destinations south, know my personal info; has not been problematic. Similarly, a few platonic social connections with like-minded punters, but getting hoodwinked in that category came as a surprise.

Somewhat paradoxically, Quebec may be lifting measures earlier than other provinces in spite of the highest infection prevalence. One argument underpinning the relaxation is that the majority of cases are elderly in long term care facilities. It is key to assess rates of new infection based on gradually re-opening the economy. Federal relaxation of travel bans and quarantine requirements at any point prior to an advanced level of re-opening the economy will confound the data. The histogram graph of daily new cases has not nearly shown a drop yet, compared to other nations including some hard-hit in Europe. It is uncertain whether the 2-week quarantine rules for most foreign nationals will apply when foreign nationals are green-lit for entry. Will the border open without quarantine requirements by July 1? Hard to say. A lot has happened over 8 weeks that is out of control. And 8 weeks going forward seems like a short time to figure out all the details.

This was previously discussed in another thread. I am not saying the ad is well-crafted. Much of the content is superfluous. The only slightly logical reason for suggesting Montreal is not the best location is that it is illegal in Canada to purchase services and it is illegal for a platform to advertise the seller’s services. The provider is immune from prosecution. The ad platform has no plausible deniability. It is the client that needs plausible deniability but the provider cannot cover that contingency in an ad. He can allude to your liability without writing that it is illegal for you to pay for him. The $500 is highway robbery. Yet you are also the indictable one in that regard. On overthinking I can surpass you. LOL

I have to admit that I did not read Ferrante’s My Brilliant Friend quadrilogy in order but that did not matter.

Oh! I might sound like I have lost my head, but hope you have read Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies prior to the latest.

Mantel is methodical and meticulous, and suffers from endometriosis that sets back her schedule, hence the delay.

At first glance the topic I myself wondered if it might be Floridan Chad Johnson from early porn, eg ‘Perfect 10’, but he must be older than early forties.

The Mirror & the Light, Hilary Mantel’s final instalment in the Wolf Hall trilogy. The first two won Man Booker. We are 3 months away from this year’s long list.

Quebec is planning to re-open schools this month. A lot of parents and teacher worries about it. I am isolated in place with brief weekly grocery outings. A young woman on my small loft building level was taken by ambulance yesterday, presumably CoV. As for commercial, to sum up for what might be relevant here, the first phase in May is stores with a separate entrance that do not require walking thru an indoor mall. They can be in a shopping center as long as they can be accessed directly from a street or parking lot. These small steps will be assessed in terms of new infection trends. A bar/entertainment venue would be something much further down the line, as even restaurants will likely require physical distancing if and when they are added to the trials. Grocery stores and pharmacies had remained open. Personally, I think the logarithmic base10 incidence trajectory should be horizontal prior to much re-opening. Not a clairvoyant, but at least I have the option to lay low. I have previously gone months at a time without a visit to nearby stripper bars. The typical home-town take-for-granted syndrome.

I just joined Twitter after years of resisting, cannot keep up with Instagram and Facebook as it is. I did not know there was so much explicit content on Twitter. An endless sinkhole of brief porn. In addition, often teaser clips linked to OnlyFans accounts that happen to have low content. It is more fun to find Twitter photos and clips worth curating for a JO session than take the plunge into a modestly priced paid membership.

Blow job? Something from a time capsule?

LOL, just got the Texas airport reference. I had indicated the account based in Caribbean. In this case, LRD is La Republica Dominicana. I have been in the United States a total of less than 30 days this century. I realize, as well, there are far more important things going on.

Both experiences occur in the general area that is south of the dividing point between Canada/USA and Mexico, Caribbean, Central America, South America. Hence, written up here. —— Here is an UNRELATED more concrete (I hope) example to illustrate the theme: You connect privately on a message board with somebody that describes himself as a partner in a prestigious law firm, but of course the profile is anonymous on the message board, like we are on this board. The person broadcasts his credentials on the board but they are not the focus on the board. Basically the same credentials come up in your private communication with him, but again, the agenda is mostly about fun gay and sex related stuff. The online “friendship” is purely platonic. Career details can be boring compared to other topics and joking around. Who really needs to deviate from interesting commentary and gossip about hot Latin guys? He gradually asserts added embellishment about his qualifications and career, for example is also a high-status law professor, has many specialties, travels and consults internationally, all impressive but credible. However, you are educated and not completely naïve, and eventually you reach a tipping point where it is uncomfortable to confront him (he has been otherwise sweet and kind) but you have enough information to explore the reality. YOU HOLD BACK. You want to give the benefit of the doubt. It is not usually illegal to fabricate one’s background, and people have their reasons ... ranging on a spectrum from wanting to harmlessly upgrade their persona, to sociopathy at the more extreme end. Yet if you have standards for authenticity in a friendship that has evolved to connecting in person ... well, it gets more complicated, even if socio-economic status is irrelevant. You meet for the first time, following months of text friendship, taking a meal together in a mutual travel destination, with a view to going out on the town. Locals in the foreign (Latin language) venues ask about your backgrounds, a natural aspect of social introductions, and are naturally impressed. However, he slips up a little by adding an piece inconsistent with the “CV” he put forward in social media and in discussions with you, just enough to prompt you to later go clickety-clack on your keyboard. You discover with a bit of digging that the person is not the things he says he is, that he may be a paralegal, perhaps even no more than a senior legal secretary. You don’t need to hire a private investigator these days to trace footprints on social media. There has not been any direct confrontation or accounting, and your previous regular communication has dried up following the dinner. Let’s say you knit your brow at one point during a discussion about an academic thesis he described writing. He comments: “Why are you scrunching up your face, BB?” Perhaps he now knows that you know, etc. It turns out he is “busy” now. What would be the point of a confrontation if you sense he knows you have discovered the fraudulent aspects of his professional profile? Besides, the friendship seems tainted and dishonest at this point. —— So, this is not about commercial sex workers to whom we tend give a free pass about their mendacity. Of course, some of us distort our profiles with the trade we hire as well. That agenda is, by definition, implicitly performative. The essentialist part of the exchange is a mutually beneficial arrangement. We gossip and share at times about providers, and there seem to be minimal restrictions about checking, “cyberstalking”, what have you, in relation to our activities. I have NOT “outed” this person but I have debriefed with a few folks outside the situation. People that neither, to the best of my knowledge, directly know the person or the person’s name, nor have a similar DM history with the person. People with whom there is an implicit trust that they would not publicly “out” the person in a way that could make the person feel unsettled. ——- Assuming a dividing line between clients and providers, was I being “douche-y” in looking up the person with whom I had been friendly for a long time? Is this different than investigating a provider if you think something is off? Should I have simply drawn on my spidey sense about the impersonating? And then distanced myself based on feeling confident about the judgement without corroborating “evidence”? What are the standards of propriety in a situation like this?