Lotus-eater

a special California Dreamin' arrangement
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1H3Lot94ot/

No regrets here! 
In 2020, I made an "Emergency Withdrawal" (allowed in 2020 for anyone who had proof of a COVID diagnosis that year) and drained my traditional IRA in order to cash flow my maximum contributions to my Roth IRA and Roth 401k for a few years.  Because of the "Emergency Withdrawal" legislation, I avoided the 10% penalty and was able to spread the withdrawal income out over 3 years on reported income taxes.  I'm so happy I did that!  It's better for me to have the taxes out of the way and for all that money to grow tax-free for the next few decades.

Lump-sum investing outperforms in that study due to the time-in-the-market effect since the investment is made on Day 1 of the investment year. Had the lump-sum investment been made on Day 365 of the year, it would have underperformed dollar-cost averaging.
For withdrawals, the reverse logic applies. Dollar-cost averaging beats withdrawing all of your yearly expenses on Day 1 of the year because your money stays in the market longer.

Military conflicts are associated with increased market volatility, not major bear markets. Only the Arab oil embargo was associated with a long downturn that took more than 6 months to recover from:
S&P 500 responses to select military interventions and hostilities since World War II
Event Start date* Trading days to trough % change to trough Trading days back to even N. Korea invades S. Korea June 25, 1950 15 -12.9% 56 U.S. spy plane shot down in USSR May 7, 1960 2 -0.6% 4 Bay of Pigs invasion April 15, 1961 6 -3.0% 14 Cuban Missile Crisis Oct. 16, 1962 6 -6.3% 13 Gulf of Tonkin Incident (Vietnam) Aug. 2, 1964 4 -2.2% 29 Lead-up to Six-Day War (June 6) May 14, 1967 15 -5.6% 20 Tet Offensive (Vietnam) Jan. 29, 1968 25 -6.0% 46 Cambodian Campaign (Vietnam) May 1, 1970 18 -14.9% 86 Yom Kippur War, Arab oil embargo Oct. 6, 1973 42 -16.1% 6 years** Soviet-Afghan War Dec. 24, 1979 7 -2.3% 10 Intervention in Grenada Oct. 25, 1983 11 -2.8% 15 Lead-up to intervention in Panama Dec. 15, 1989 2 -2.2% 8 Iraq invades Kuwait, oilfields seized Aug. 2, 1990 50 -15.9% 131 Lead-up to Gulf War (Desert Storm) Jan. 1, 1991 6 -5.7% 13 Intervention in Yugoslavia (Balkans) March 24, 1999 3 -4.1% 11 U.S. spy plane captured in China April 1, 2001 3 -4.9% 7 War in Afghanistan Oct. 7, 2001 1 -0.8% 3 Lead-up to Iraq War Feb. 5, 2003 24 -5.6% 28 Russia intervention in Ukraine Feb. 11, 2022* 17 -7.4% 27 12-Day War (Israel/U.S. and Iran) June 12, 2025 5 -1.3% 7 Average of all 20 events — 13 -6.0% 28

Individuals may behave irrationally, but the market is made up of millions of people, many of whom are much smarter and better informed than you are, not to mention unemotional computer algorithms, which is why virtually no single individual has been able to beat the market over the long-term. Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has only matched the return of S&P 500 since 2000. 

"Realistic" according to your definition. The idea that the U.S. stock market--made up of millions of people from around the world buying and selling--is driven by a bunch of irrational Pollyannas is silly.

Lump-sum investing outperforms in that study due to the time-in-the-market effect since the investment is made on Day 1 of the investment year. Had the lump-sum investment been made on Day 365 of the year, it would have underperformed dollar-cost averaging.
For withdrawals, the reverse logic applies. Dollar-cost averaging beats withdrawing all of your yearly expenses on Day 1 of the year because your money stays in the market longer.

There once was a golfer named Woods who needs to stop driving for good. If he gotten a chauffeur after the last roll over It would reduce the DUI likelihood.

"Realistic" according to your definition. The idea that the U.S. stock market--made up of millions of people from around the world buying and selling--is driven by a bunch of irrational Pollyannas is silly.

An interesting article in the March 2026 issue of AAII Journal (which I received today) looked at decades of dollar-cost averaging versus lump-sum investing.  Lump-sum investing outperformed.  Here's an interesting quote from the article for those against going in lump-sum : 'You must think that stocks are going to go up, or you wouldn't be buying them.  Why do you think stocks will go down first? if you think they're going to go down, why buy them at all?'

I read a statistic (I can't remember the source, I apologize) that for lump sum vs dollar-cost averaging, dollar-cost averaging statistically only works better than lump sum if it's spread out over a period of 6 months or less.
For example:
Option A:  Invest $12,000 on January 1.
Option B:  Invest $3,000 on January 1, February 1, March 1, and April 1 ($12,000 total).
Option C: Invest $1,000 on the 1st of each month for 12 months ($12,000 total).
Statistically:  Option B performs better by the end of the year than Option A.  But Option A performs better than Option C.  The advantage of spreading out a lump sum investment over a few months (Option B) ensures you aren't buying all of it at a peak.  But, spreading out the investment for a long period (Option C) means you miss precious time in the market for most of the investment.  So, dollar-cost averaging for less than 6 months is statistically the best thing to do when you have the means and are ready to buy.

If your CD rate matches the inflation rate, then you’re sinking because you have to pay taxes on the CD’s interest.

Dude, go back to reading books. Like the poster above me I do not have a television. My Kindle has over 20 books on it and goes with me everywhere. Or I can listen to music. YouTube is already increasing ads but occasionally there’s something worth watching. And I can watch on my phone. I’m more of an introvert so I don’t make conversation easily but I can always disappear into a book. 

https://robbreport.com/shelter/new-construction/inside-80-clarkson-west-village-1237698572/


 









 

https://robbreport.com/shelter/new-construction/inside-80-clarkson-west-village-1237698572/


 









 

I see no good reason to like someone based on identity politics.

I see no good reason to like someone based on identity politics.

I see no good reason to like someone based on identity politics.

This showed up on my Instagram… There may be some wisdom in this.

I see no good reason to like someone based on identity politics.

Yes.  So she turned to the plastic surgeon instead 😉