How long till Dow Jones hits 40,000 and S&P 5,000?

[marylander1940]

On 3/10/2025 at 6:12 PM, BuffaloKyle said:

The question is now how long until the dow drops below 40,000?

[BuffaloKyle]

1 hour ago, marylander1940 said:

We're getting closer, it's pretty much inevitable at this point.

[BeamerBikes]

It’s going to be interesting if/when we see where it will bottom out this year.  S&P 4900 would be close to a 20% peak to trough.  
 

I’m still a bit of a novice investor.  I pulled way back out of equities at the beginning of February, and told myself I will let things shake loose. If things don’t go to shit by April/May, maybe I overreacted and it’s time to hop back in.  I didn’t pull everything out, but I probably parked 60% in high yield money markets.  I’m still contributing to my 401k. 
 

It’s hard to watch the markets these days.

[KeepItReal]

10 hours ago, BeamerBikes said:

It’s going to be interesting if/when we see where it will bottom out this year.  S&P 4900 would be close to a 20% peak to trough.  
 

I’m still a bit of a novice investor.  I pulled way back out of equities at the beginning of February, and told myself I will let things shake loose. If things don’t go to shit by April/May, maybe I overreacted and it’s time to hop back in.  I didn’t pull everything out, but I probably parked 60% in high yield money markets.  I’m still contributing to my 401k. 
 

It’s hard to watch the markets these days.

Most research indicates that hopping in and out of the market is a bad idea. If you are a novice, it may be a good idea to find someone more seasoned to help steady your hand. 

[Kcdave]

14 hours ago, BeamerBikes said:

It’s going to be interesting if/when we see where it will bottom out this year.  S&P 4900 would be close to a 20% peak to trough.  
 

I’m still a bit of a novice investor.  I pulled way back out of equities at the beginning of February, and told myself I will let things shake loose. If things don’t go to shit by April/May, maybe I overreacted and it’s time to hop back in.  I didn’t pull everything out, but I probably parked 60% in high yield money markets.  I’m still contributing to my 401k. 
 

It’s hard to watch the markets these days.

Difficult to figure out market timing. Those of us who have gray hair have probably learned over the years not to jump in or out when the market turns Bearish.  I think we will see a 25% correction from its peak before it bottoms out. I hope it’s not deeper than that. Because it will take years to recover.
If you’re need for your investment funds or less than 24 months, you probably want to pull some cash out. If you’re able to hang on for 24 to 48 months, you probably will be OK.

i’m not smart enough to understand market timing. You have to do what is right for your own investment needs. Good luck to you.

 

 

[BeamerBikes]

6 hours ago, KeepItReal said:

Most research indicates that hopping in and out of the market is a bad idea. If you are a novice, it may be a good idea to find someone more seasoned to help steady your hand.

To be clear, I’m not trying to time the market for advantage. This is more I didn’t feel comfortable with the risk of being all-in even with just target date funds. Given the outsized returns of the previous couple years and all the uncertainty, I wanted to sleep better knowing that a significant chunk was safe at 4-5%.  If I had overreacted - tariffs go in and the market didn’t think any of it, I’d go back in.  
 

In this case, I may have rebalanced/profit taken at the right time and/or just got plain lucky at the Stock Market Casino.   Either way, I know I will end up going back in eventually for long term growth.  I just don’t recognize the valuations, and I don’t buy into the AI hype train. I stick with businesses I understand in the Vegas brokerage account. Mostly stay in target date low expense funds for the vast majority of the retirement.  I’m not going to try to time the bottom, and I accept I might miss out on some upswing.  
 

Bigger believer in accumulating via saving versus growing aggressively.  

[Boaxxx]

I always consider a dropping market as a sale and a buying opportunity. I continue my regular bi-weekly investments as well as contributions to my 401-k knowing that the market will continue to go up in the long term. I think the markets may continue to fall or plateau over the next six months before rebounding.

[sutherland]

5 hours ago, Kcdave said:

Those of us who have gray hair have probably learned over the years not to jump in or out when the market turns Bearish

This month's issue of the AAII Journal (American Association of Individual Investors) has a good article for those of us with gray hair.  It is important to keep some assets in a safe place (CDs, short-term Treasuries) so when the market turns bad one will draw on these funds for everyday living expenses.  One won't sell equities for everyday living expenses during this down period and take a loss.  The biggest risk for us long-term investors is not achieving rates of return about the inflation rate.

[Beancounter]

It’s official!  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now trading below 40,000 on April 4th at 8:43 am. 

[BuffaloKyle]

10 hours ago, Beancounter said:

It’s official!  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now trading below 40,000 on April 4th at 8:43 am. 

So we can ask again when is the Dow going to hit 40,000? 😅

[Jim_n_NYC]

15 hours ago, BuffaloKyle said:

So we can ask again when is the Dow going to hit 40,000? 😅

Maybe we should take bets on whether it will hit 40,000 or 30,000 first. 🫣

[BuffaloKyle]

Looks like it's gonna be another bad day tomorrow looking at the Dow futures. They say don't try to time the market but I figure once it drops to zero then I'll buy as no where to go but up then.

Edited April 6 by BuffaloKyle

[mike carey]

2 hours ago, BuffaloKyle said:

Looks like it's gonna be another bad day tomorrow looking at the Dow futures. They say don't try to time the market but I figure once it drops to zero then I'll buy as no where to go but up then.

As a possibly relevant data point, the Australian market was down over 6% on opening this morning, but has reversed some of the losses and is down 5.3% now at 1130AEST. Our trade on Friday wasn't down as much as the later US trading day was, so some of today's drop is catching up with earlier US losses rather than foretelling further losses there.

[56harrisond]

Legendary fund manager sends blunt 9-word message on stock market tumble

TheStreet Apr 5, 2025 12:17 PM EDT

"Investors should not try to ‘catch a falling knife," wrote Gross bluntly in an email to Bloomberg.

Buying the dip in the S&P 500 has been a winning strategy historically, but the pain endured while stocks find their bottom can be hard to withstand. And it can take years to recover losses. The situation is worse for individual stocks, which may never get back to their previous highs (case in point: Cisco Systems  (CSCO)  still trades below its 1999 peak).

"This is an epic economic and market event similar to 1971 and the end of the gold standard except with immediate negative consequences,” said Gross. 

In the early 70s, a collection of 50 leading stocks became regarded as "one decision" stocks - buy only. Money was concentrated within them, setting up a significant market drop when they peaked in 1972. Sound familiar? 

It's a bit unclear what will happen next. Fed Chair Powell admitted that he thinks the tariff impact will be worse than previously forecast, perhaps setting up rate cuts again. Meanwhile, President Trump is on the airwaves pressing for Powell to cut rates—a strategy that hasn't worked in the past.

Perhaps the recent market drop will encourage negotiations that lower tariffs, easing their impact. But that remains to be seen, and Gross isn't convinced.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/legendary-fund-manager-sends-blunt-9-word-message-on-stock-market-tumble

 

[+ augustus]

On 3/30/2025 at 6:55 PM, sutherland said:

This month's issue of the AAII Journal (American Association of Individual Investors) has a good article for those of us with gray hair.  It is important to keep some assets in a safe place (CDs, short-term Treasuries) so when the market turns bad one will draw on these funds for everyday living expenses.  One won't sell equities for everyday living expenses during this down period and take a loss.  The biggest risk for us long-term investors is not achieving rates of return about the inflation rate.

Good idea.  Remember, the Nasdaq fell 80% in 1999-2000.  

[EZEtoGRU]

On 4/5/2025 at 11:25 AM, Jim_n_NYC said:

Maybe we should take bets on whether it will hit 40,000 or 30,000 first. 🫣

Well, the DOW closed below 38,000 today.  Anyone for 37,000 tomorrow?

[mike carey]

34 minutes ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Well, the DOW closed below 38,000 today.  Anyone for 37,000 tomorrow?

ASX futures were up 0.7% at 6am AEST Tuesday (just over 1.5 hours ago). That's still down, to use a technical term, a shit tonne since last Thursday. That may in part be due to things apparently stabilising wrt China, our biggest trading partner and therefore a big influence on our economy and markets, so not necessarily indicative of Tuesday on Wall Street.

[TonyDown]

Today on CNBC, Liz Ann Saunders (Schwab chief analyst) recommended the path of least resistance is downward and that Schwab is neutral across all sectors.   Further, she is not making any assumptions when and where to invest in the future while there is ongoing risk caused by unpredictable tariff policy.

She also voiced concern about a confidence crisis caused by a serious threat to the independence of the Fed. 

That all might begin to sound political, but in terms of risk tolerance,  she is just being guarded, not political.

The interview is available on YouTube.

Edited April 17 by TonyDown

[Nightowl]

Maybe a better question is when will it hit 30,000?

[marylander1940]

40,000 is the new 10,000 of 2009!