How long till Dow Jones hits 40,000 and S&P 5,000?

[sutherland]

40 minutes ago, Lotus-eater said:

Time in the market is the best strategy for the highest returns.

as the saying goes: "Time in the market is more important than Timing the market"

[Luv2play]

On 2/24/2026 at 1:51 PM, Luv2play said:

The Dow Jones could hit 40,000 soon, on the way back down. 😆

Little did I know that this would start coming true in just a few weeks. As Harold McMillan said to JFK, “events my dear boy”. 
Harold McMillan was the British prime  minister when JFK was president.

Edited March 20 by Luv2play

[Maldor]

It’s practically impossible to predict short-term fluctuations (at least in my case, since I don’t have much investment experience😅). Although I’m confident that it will be profitable in the long run.

[Luv2play]

Markets continue to barrel towards 5000 and 40000. 

[EZEtoGRU]

The market is starting to be realistic about the impact that the Middle East situation can have on the global economy. Hence the falling stock markets around the world. I feel there is the potential for much steeper falls going forward. It’s not guaranteed but the possiby exists for the DOW to plummet much further. I fear a Pandora’s box may have been opened. 

[Lotus-eater]

41 minutes ago, EZEtoGRU said:

The market is starting to be realistic about the impact that the Middle East situation can have on the global economy. Hence the falling stock markets around the world. I feel there is the potential for much steeper falls going forward. It’s not guaranteed but the possiby exists for the DOW to plummet much further. I fear a Pandora’s box may have been opened. 

"Realistic" according to your definition. The idea that the U.S. stock market--made up of millions of people from around the world buying and selling--is driven by a bunch of irrational Pollyannas is silly.

[EZEtoGRU]

People behave irrationally all the time...whether in business or personal aspects of their lives.  People see what they want to see (or what they're told to see) until reality slaps them in the face and they have to absorb what's clearly in front of them.  I deal with facts and reality.  Sadly, many (most?) people don't operate that way.  They need someone to interpret the available information and then tell them how to think.  Sad but true.   

[Lotus-eater]

19 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

People behave irrationally all the time...whether in business or personal aspects of their lives.  People see what they want to see (or what they're told to see) until reality slaps them in the face and they have to absorb what's clearly in front of them.  I deal with facts and reality.  Sadly, many (most?) people don't operate that way.  They need someone to interpret the available information and then tell them how to think.  Sad but true.   

Individuals may behave irrationally, but the market is made up of millions of people, many of whom are much smarter and better informed than you are, not to mention unemotional computer algorithms, which is why virtually no single individual has been able to beat the market over the long-term. Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has only matched the return of S&P 500 since 2000. 

Edited Saturday at 05:06 PM by Lotus-eater

[Kevin Slater]

Reminder: this is a forum to discuss the markets and finance, not other posters.

[Lotus-eater]

Military conflicts are associated with increased market volatility, not major bear markets. Only the Arab oil embargo was associated with a long downturn that took more than 6 months to recover from:

S&P 500 responses to select military interventions and hostilities since World War II

Event	Start date*	Trading days to trough	% change to trough	Trading days back to even
N. Korea invades S. Korea	June 25, 1950	15	-12.9%	56
U.S. spy plane shot down in USSR	May 7, 1960	2	-0.6%	4
Bay of Pigs invasion	April 15, 1961	6	-3.0%	14
Cuban Missile Crisis	Oct. 16, 1962	6	-6.3%	13
Gulf of Tonkin Incident (Vietnam)	Aug. 2, 1964	4	-2.2%	29
Lead-up to Six-Day War (June 6)	May 14, 1967	15	-5.6%	20
Tet Offensive (Vietnam)	Jan. 29, 1968	25	-6.0%	46
Cambodian Campaign (Vietnam)	May 1, 1970	18	-14.9%	86
Yom Kippur War, Arab oil embargo	Oct. 6, 1973	42	-16.1%	6 years**
Soviet-Afghan War	Dec. 24, 1979	7	-2.3%	10
Intervention in Grenada	Oct. 25, 1983	11	-2.8%	15
Lead-up to intervention in Panama	Dec. 15, 1989	2	-2.2%	8
Iraq invades Kuwait, oilfields seized	Aug. 2, 1990	50	-15.9%	131
Lead-up to Gulf War (Desert Storm)	Jan. 1, 1991	6	-5.7%	13
Intervention in Yugoslavia (Balkans)	March 24, 1999	3	-4.1%	11
U.S. spy plane captured in China	April 1, 2001	3	-4.9%	7
War in Afghanistan	Oct. 7, 2001	1	-0.8%	3
Lead-up to Iraq War	Feb. 5, 2003	24	-5.6%	28
Russia intervention in Ukraine	Feb. 11, 2022*	17	-7.4%	27
12-Day War (Israel/U.S. and Iran)	June 12, 2025	5	-1.3%	7
Average of all 20 events	—	13	-6.0%	28

[Aedo]

I think I added a bit too heavy on the way down this past month into Microsoft, Meta, and Adobe, as I am wont to do. I did that with Bitcoin in 2022 as well.

I am writing down in my finance journal that I, personally, need to wait for some sign of genuine capitulation. Two such signs are (1) the stock doesn't move despite bad news or because of being hammered by Cramer et al. and (2) when the rest of the market craters, the stock doesn't budge.

Recently, this was Novo Nordisk. While the rest of the market plummeted the past 2 weeks, Novo hasn't really budged out of the $35-$38 range it formed a few months ago. So now I feel better about Novo Nordisk, and I should have waited for those signs before I invested at $45-$50. 

[+ FrankR]

6 hours ago, Aedo said:

I think I added a bit too heavy on the way down this past month into Microsoft, Meta, and Adobe, as I am wont to do. I did that with Bitcoin in 2022 as well.

I am writing down in my finance journal that I, personally, need to wait for some sign of genuine capitulation. Two such signs are (1) the stock doesn't move despite bad news or because of being hammered by Cramer et al. and (2) when the rest of the market craters, the stock doesn't budge.

Recently, this was Novo Nordisk. While the rest of the market plummeted the past 2 weeks, Novo hasn't really budged out of the $35-$38 range it formed a few months ago. So now I feel better about Novo Nordisk, and I should have waited for those signs before I invested at $45-$50. 

I always tell my friends: there is a difference between price and value - make sure you don’t confuse the two.