Inflation continues to fall

[+ FrankR]

26 minutes ago, BSR said:

Blaming inflation all on Covid is a lie of omission.  We also printed $trillions out of thin air, which for obvious reasons causes inflation.  Just look at the inflation rate of Switzerland, which maintained fiscal discipline.

That is fair - we did lose fiscal discipline; but that has been the case for many years (starting in 2001, to be honest.) So what changed in the past 3 to 4 years to spark inflation? The short answer is Covid and various conflicts. 

[BSR]

2 minutes ago, FrankR said:

That is fair - we did lose fiscal discipline; but that has been the case for many years (starting in 2001, to be honest.) So what changed in the past 3 to 4 years to spark inflation? The short answer is Covid and various conflicts. 

But did we ever print so much money so quickly?  Every stimulus was hundreds and hundreds of $billions printed overnight, and the cumulative series printed $trillions out of thin air in just a couple of years.

To me, money-printing in the past was a steady leak whereas the stimulus printing was more like a dam burst.

[+ FrankR]

31 minutes ago, BSR said:

But did we ever print so much money so quickly?  Every stimulus was hundreds and hundreds of $billions printed overnight, and the cumulative series printed $trillions out of thin air in just a couple of years.

To me, money-printing in the past was a steady leak whereas the stimulus printing was more like a dam burst.

I’ll add some perspective. Yes, we added more debt over the past four years, during and post Covid than we did in the previous 10 years (roughly). But why?  Its not just the spending, keep in mind we have an interest problem. Interest rates on debt were in a downward cycle until 2020 and have been rising since. so we are now paying quite a bit more in interest than we did before which means we need to borrow more to cover the interest too. So it is compounding the problem…literally. It is very concerning and will come back to haunt us… 😐

[KeepItReal]

6 hours ago, augustus said:

Then the media and government reports that "Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, logged their lowest increase since April 2021".... So the measure of inflation excludes food and energy (and a lot of other things)  The two items that impact consumers most.  Any wonder why the public says "BS".  

Okay. Stop. Now you are just confusing everybody with jibber jabber. In the USA we use Consumer Price Index (primary) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (secondary) to measure inflation. We do NOT use core price indexing to measure inflation...at all. 

[+ augustus]

41 minutes ago, KeepItReal said:

Okay. Stop. Now you are just confusing everybody with jibber jabber. In the USA we use Consumer Price Index (primary) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (secondary) to measure inflation. We do NOT use core price indexing to measure inflation...at all. 

You have no "Master's of Economics".  The "core" numbers are always cited by the Fed, among others, in their decision making.  There are several measures of the inflation rate and some don't include food and energy. Don't argue with me.  The gibberish is yours.

Edited May 16, 2024 by augustus

[+ augustus]

Malinformation and complete false info is being peddled.  Inflation boosts the fortunes of the top quintile of US earners and kills the living standards of the other 80%.  The notion no one would ever want prices to go back down (the new talking point), is so insulting to those of lesser means, it is shocking anyone, would actually be so tone death, as to voice it.  Never, in the history of the US, have the powers that be been so solely focused on aid to the well-educated and well heeled, at the expense of all other Americans.

[Kevin Slater]

Moderator's note:  Let's address the issue, not other members.  

[matthatter]

On 4/30/2024 at 11:07 AM, Kevin Slater said:

No, the reports showed GDP growth decreasing.  GDP is still increasing, albeit at a slower rate.

Kevin Slater 

Correct.

 

 

[EZEtoGRU]

Turns out multiple retailers are actively lowering prices currently.  Think Walgreens, Walmart, Ikea, Amazon, Aldi, and others.  

MSN

WWW.MSN.COM

 

[+ augustus]

6 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Turns out multiple retailers are actively lowering prices currently.  Think Walgreens, Walmart, Ikea, Amazon, Aldi, and others. 

MSN

WWW.MSN.COM

 

They should!  How much of a decline in prices is the question.  Just look at this article.  As I've been saying inflation is far worse than the official numbers.   They have to lower prices because people ain't got the money anymore.  

 

McDonald's exec says average menu item costs 40% more than in 2019

WWW.CNBC.COM

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The president of McDonald's USA clarified its price inflation in a press release in response to 100% price increase claims by House Republicans, among others.

 

[Rudynate]

15 hours ago, augustus said:

They should!  How much of a decline in prices is the question.  Just look at this article.  As I've been saying inflation is far worse than the official numbers.   They have to lower prices because people ain't got the money anymore.  

 

McDonald's exec says average menu item costs 40% more than in 2019

WWW.CNBC.COM

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The president of McDonald's USA clarified its price inflation in a press release in response to 100% price increase claims by House Republicans, among others.

 

It's easy to say that inflation is easing because the consumer price index doesn't include two major sources of inflation—energy and food. It's a good thing nobody uses cash anymore—grocery price inflation is so bad that, if we were using cash, we might soon have to take wheelbarrows of cash with us to pay our grocery bill.

[+ FrankR]

3 hours ago, Rudynate said:

It's easy to say that inflation is easing because the consumer price index doesn't include two major sources of inflation—energy and food. It's a good thing nobody uses cash anymore—grocery price inflation is so bad that, if we were using cash, we might soon have to take wheelbarrows of cash with us to pay our grocery bill.

That is not correct - when calculating CPI, both fuel and food ARE included. 

[Rudynate]

1 hour ago, FrankR said:

That is not correct - when calculating CPI, both fuel and food ARE included. 

My mistake.   The core inflation index  calculation excludes food and energy.

[Jim_n_NYC]

I bought groceries yesterday for last night's dinner and the whole rotisserie chicken, organic asparagus, and  can of black beans cost me $17 (this is in NYC).  If I had bought skinless chicken breasts and cooked them myself that would have shaved off $4 to $5 dollars off the price.  Hardly breaking the bank.

[+ augustus]

1 hour ago, FrankR said:

That is not correct - when calculating CPI, both fuel and food ARE included. 

And when the politicians and the Fed talk about inflation, they just so happen to use the core index which excludes food and energy.

[+ FrankR]

1 hour ago, augustus said:

And when the politicians and the Fed talk about inflation, they just so happen to use the core index which excludes food and energy.

Why are you listening to politicians and the Fed when it comes to inflation? Go to the source: the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The news release for inflation in April (dated May 15) under “Latest Releases” did not mention “core” once. 🤓

[+ augustus]

3 hours ago, FrankR said:

Why are you listening to politicians and the Fed when it comes to inflation? Go to the source: the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The news release for inflation in April (dated May 15) under “Latest Releases” did not mention “core” once. 

I do.  There are some people here who cite the core and claim that inflation isn't bad, which is a blatant lie.  Inflation is worse than any official numbers.  Bloomberg had an article on it.  We have had more than 14% inflation in the last 3 years.  It's at least double that.

[EZEtoGRU]

May inflation came in lower than expected...so trending in the right direction.  This news coupled with multiple retailers dropping prices and gasoline prices plummeting (I paid $3.19 last week in Michigan) all suggest things are going well economically.  I still don't see the Fed dropping interest rates imminently...maybe later in the year.

US inflation cooled in May in a sign that price pressures may be easing

APNEWS.COM

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Inflation in the United States eased in May for a second straight month, a hopeful sign that an acceleration of prices that occurred early this year may have passed.

 

Edited June 12, 2024 by EZEtoGRU

[+ augustus]

23 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

May inflation came in lower than expected...so trending in the right direction.  This news coupled with multiple retailers dropping prices and gasoline prices plummeting (I paid $3.19 last week in Michigan) all suggest things are going well economically.  I still don't see the Fed dropping interest rates imminently...maybe later in the year.

Yes, 3.3% is less than the previous 30%+.   But it is IN ADDITION to a huge run up over the last 3 years.  I wish the cheerleaders would stand outside a supermarket or pharmacy and ask people their opinions of price increases.  The damage is massive and done.  A big drop in living standards that will not be reversed.   Amazing how some people want us to forget about the massive increases from 2020-2023 which have not subsided (and never will). 

[marylander1940]

Are some fast-food restaurants now unaffordable to those who used to be "super heavy users"?

 

[Guest]

On 7/12/2023 at 11:07 AM, EZEtoGRU said:

Positive inflation news out today.  This is definitely a trend as inflation has been falling for 12 straight months now.  Separately, I read something yesterday about Florida being the inflation hot-spot in the country currently.

US inflation cooled in June for the 12th straight month | CNN Business

WWW.CNN.COM

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What a difference a year makes.

 

Home - Chapwood Index

CHAPWOODINDEX.COM

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The Real Cost of Living Increase Index It exposes why middle-class Americans — salaried workers who are given routine...

 

[EZEtoGRU]

Another positive inflation report was released today continuing the downward trend.  Great news!

reuters.com

WWW.REUTERS.COM

 

[+ augustus]

2 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Another positive inflation report was released today continuing the downward trend.  Great news!

reuters.com

WWW.REUTERS.COM

 

My wallet doesn’t agree. Everything I pay for is still quite inflated.   I should be ecstatic that my savings, retirement account, and purchasing power are now permanently 70% of what they used to be in 2020?? 

[+ FrankR]

21 minutes ago, augustus said:

My wallet doesn’t agree. Everything I pay for is still quite inflated.   I should be ecstatic that my savings, retirement account, and purchasing power are now permanently 70% of what they used to be in 2020?? 

Oh, let me call the whambulance.  Why do you always only look at the negatives? 

You fail to consider that those retirement balances are way up. Vanguard reported that median 401(k) balances are up 29% in 2023 alone due to strong market performance.  Surely that helps your “poor” wallet? 🧐

[+ augustus]

2 minutes ago, FrankR said:

You fail to consider that those retirement balances are way up. Vanguard reported that median 401(k) balances are up 29% in 2023 alone due to strong market performance.  Surely that helps your “poor” wallet? 

"Median" and "average" are 2 different things.  And P/E ratios are too high for the magnificent 7.  Have you forgotten about the high tech bust 25 years ago?  And most people don't have money in the market anyway.  They are suffering mightily!  The lower and middle class like me.