Inflation continues to fall

[+ FrankR]

10 minutes ago, augustus said:

It is astonishing how people believe the propaganda that inflation is the result of the greedy farmers and the greedy businessmen and supply side disruptions and whatever crap is told them.  Inflation is caused by excess money printing to finance large government deficits and it continues unabated to this day.  

Propaganda you say. Wall Steet analysts are saying it. The Federal Reserve is saying it. Large retailers are saying it. Fortune, Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal are saying it. Of course nobody is saying that ALL of inflation is caused by price increases - but there is no doubt greedflation is a thing and a large contributor. 

https://fortune.com/2024/01/20/inflation-greedflation-consumer-price-index-producer-price-index-corporate-profit/

Edited May 6 by FrankR

[+ augustus]

8 minutes ago, FrankR said:

but there is no doubt greedflation is a thing and a large contributor. 

No doubt.  But this is caused by excess money printing and debt that stokes demand.  All this excess liquidity is causing excess demand that pushes up prices.  You want to call it greedflation.  It's people doing things to make money, like the idiot house flippers that have brought up 30% of the nation's housing stock and caused housing and home costs to skyrocket and cause widespread misery.  The origin of all this mess is irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies. 

[KeepItReal]

On 4/9/2024 at 2:19 PM, augustus said:

Just read on Bloomberg News that the government does not include home insurances costs in the CPI numbers, and a lot of other things too.  Taking into account the rise in home insurance rates would have added, by itself, 0.8 % to 2023's inflation rate.  

Test is not entirely accurate. CPI does include renters insurance and home insurance but excludes life insurance. An argument can be made that insurance cost is over represented since the cost of insurance is calculated by surveying insurance providers in each area (basically equal weighting of both high and low insurance rates from all providers) while in real life consumers tend to be skewed to providers with lower insurance cost.  🤓

#MastersInEconomics

[KeepItReal]

On 5/4/2024 at 10:24 AM, Thelatin said:

Over the past 2 years the average cost of groceries is up 20%, gas 22%, new cars 19%, utilities 20%, rent 20%.  I've never really paid that much attention to prices, just swipe the debt card and go.  But I find myself pausing...going, huh?

I don't know where you live, but I live in NYC and that is not my experience. Yes, prices are up but not nearly that much.  Maybe I am just lucky? Highest price increase in my basket has been the cost of lube! It's outrageous! 🤭

[BSR]

18 minutes ago, KeepItReal said:

I don't know where you live, but I live in NYC and that is not my experience. Yes, prices are up but not nearly that much.  Maybe I am just lucky? Highest price increase in my basket has been the cost of lube! It's outrageous! 🤭

"supermarket prices are now 25% higher than in January 2020, while inflation has increased 19% over that same time"

If food prices had increased at 2% per year from Jan 2020 to Feb 2024, that would be a total increase of 8.24%.  So yeah, 25% more at the supermarket is a heckuva jump.

[Luv2play]

On 4/26/2024 at 3:01 PM, Welshman said:

Here in the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister came to office after the disaster of the Liz Truss mini budget (that saw Uk gilts increase from a 3.1% yield to a 5.1% yield in less than 24 hours) and as one of his priorities he announced that he would halve inflation within a year of coming to office.

UK inflation was 11.1% in October 2022, therefore to meet his target inflation needed to be 5.6% or lower by October 2023. That month's inflation figure was 4.6%, more than meeting that requirement, however most people in the UK do not believe it was due to the Prime Minister coming to office.

I find that to be a dog in the manger attitude. The guy pledged something concrete and then delivered in spades. Even if other factors were at play to help him achieve his inflation goal, at least he didn’t do something stupid to result in failure to meet his promises. 

[Atyla]

Inflation in the United States has eased recently, but organics and grass fed/wild caught will continue to be not that accessible to most. While the inflation today at 3% is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the trend suggests that inflation might continue to cool, as the dollar has gotten stronger compared to most currencies. Wall Street investors are optimistic, hoping for a “soft landing” where inflation gradually returns to the target without causing a recession. People are not having kids as much as they used to or at all, which used to be a big expense for most households, so they're still splurging in stuff, travelling, and indulgent purchases as this money isn't going towards an offspring like in the past. However, prices are still rising, albeit at a slower rate than before, so it's important to contribute to society and prosperity will find a way to you. 1 pound of organic brussel sprouts can cost $4.99 in most cities...

[pubic_assistance]

On 5/12/2024 at 3:04 PM, KeepItReal said:

don't know where you live, but I live in NYC and that is not my experience. Yes, prices are up but not nearly that much.  Maybe I am just lucky? Highest price increase in my basket has been the cost of lube! It's outrageous! 🤭

You must never leave your apartment.

I used to take my wife and kids out to dinner for about $120 in 2019. Now the same meal at the same restaurants are closer to $200

[ShortCutie7]

2 hours ago, pubic_assistance said:

You must never leave your apartment.

I used to take my wife and kids out to dinner for about $120 in 2019. Now the same meal at the same restaurants are closer to $200

Agreed, restaurant prices in NYC have skyrocketed, especially in the last couple of years.  The other day, a basic dinner for two in a casual Chinese restaurant was $80!  Two years ago, the exact same meal was less than $60.  Since food is where I spend the bulk of my income, I have been hit particularly hard.

[EZEtoGRU]

Inflation cooled slightly again in April.  As I posted before, its going to be slow-going now to get from 3.4% to the 2% target.  That's just how it works.  Were doing quite well having gone from the peak of 9% to the current level.  It may take a year or more to get from the current level to 2%. 

[pubic_assistance]

10 minutes ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Were doing quite well having gone from the peak of 9% to the current level

There is nothing "well" about the Fed callously printing new cash and depleting the value of everyone's savings.

The Covid emergency was four years ago. There is no reason to still be printing money.

[KeepItReal]

10 hours ago, pubic_assistance said:

You must never leave your apartment.

I used to take my wife and kids out to dinner for about $120 in 2019. Now the same meal at the same restaurants are closer to $200

I get out quite a bit, but thank you for your concern!   Will take your comments to heart: will marry rich!

[KeepItReal]

8 hours ago, ShortCutie7 said:

Agreed, restaurant prices in NYC have skyrocketed, especially in the last couple of years.  The other day, a basic dinner for two in a casual Chinese restaurant was $80!  Two years ago, the exact same meal was less than $60.  Since food is where I spend the bulk of my income, I have been hit particularly hard.

Everyone agrees: prices have gone up. They always do. More now than in recent years, but let's not get too dramatic about "sky rocketing".  It's been far worse in other countries and they have not benefitted from wage increases like most Americans. Take a moment to count your blessings. 

[Rudynate]

Restaurant prices in San Francisco are absurdly high - last week lunch for two at a mid-price restaurant in Novato set me back over $70 with tip.  But restaurant prices are just a reflection of food prices in general.  I admit, I buy upscale groceries - but come on - a pound of hamburger for $12.00 - really???

[EZEtoGRU]

Same old posters pushing the same old nonsense. Sheesh…it’s like a broken record. The reality is that huge headway has been made on the inflation front.  The rest will be slow-going. 
 

Anyone that thinks the economic consequences of COVID are over with is clueless about what’s gone on.   Supply chain problems continue in a big way. Millions left the workforce either by choice or cause they died of COVID. Many places are still not fully staffed.  Think hotels, restaurants, retail stores, etc. Even factories continue to be understaffed. Nearly every place I drive by here in Michigan still has “Now Hiring” signs out. 
 

When there is a shortage of workers, wages go up. Our local Burger King is paying $18/hr for full time workers and $16/hr for part time. This is much higher than the state-mandated minimum wage.  It’s just what they have to pay to get applicants. Otherwise, prospective employees feel it’s not worth their time. 
 

We are still feeling the economic fallout from COVID…so making that final move down to 2% inflation will be slow-going. 
don’t expect restaurant prices to fall as long as we continue to have a worker shortage in our country. 

[ShortCutie7]

3 hours ago, KeepItReal said:

Everyone agrees: prices have gone up. They always do. More now than in recent years, but let's not get too dramatic about "sky rocketing".  It's been far worse in other countries and they have not benefitted from wage increases like most Americans. Take a moment to count your blessings. 

You don’t think a 33% increase over the span of two years qualifies as “sky rocketing”?  How much do you think wages have gone in that same span of time?  Per the US inflation calculator, the increase from 2022 from 2024 should be 7.1%.

[Rudynate]

14 minutes ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Same old posters pushing the same old nonsense. Sheesh…it’s like a broken record. The reality is that huge headway has been made on the inflation front.  The rest will be slow-going. 
 

Anyone that thinks the economic consequences of COVID are over with is clueless about what’s gone on.   Supply chain problems continue in a big way. Millions left the workforce either by choice or cause they died of COVID. Many places are still not fully staffed.  Think hotels, restaurants, retail stores, etc. Even factories continue to be understaffed. Nearly every place I drive by here in Michigan still has “Now Hiring” signs out. 
 

When there is a shortage of workers, wages go up. Our local Burger King is paying $18/hr for full time workers and $16/hr for part time. This is much higher than the state-mandated minimum wage.  It’s just what they have to pay to get applicants. Otherwise, prospective employees feel it’s not worth their time. 
 

We are still feeling the economic fallout from COVID…so making that final move down to 2% inflation will be slow-going. 
don’t expect restaurant prices to fall as long as we continue to have a worker shortage in our country. 

Once they go up, prices don't fall. That, after all, would be deflation, which is an even dirtier word than "inflation" to those who make monetary policy.  But at some point, we can hopefully expect that they will stop rising with such energy.

[KeepItReal]

9 minutes ago, ShortCutie7 said:

You don’t think a 33% increase over the span of two years qualifies as “sky rocketing”?  How much do you think wages have gone in that same span of time?  Per the US inflation calculator, the increase from 2022 from 2024 should be 7.1%.

Nope, it is not. Hyperinflation is what most economists and accountants would consider "sky rocketing." Hyperinflation is 50% increase every month. Now THAT is sky rocketing! 🤓

[+ augustus]

30 minutes ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Same old posters pushing the same old nonsense. Sheesh…it’s like a broken record. The reality is that huge headway has been made on the inflation front.  The rest will be slow-going. 

Yeah, and asteroids slow down right before they slam into the earth.  The damage is still significant.  

[+ augustus]

5 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Inflation cooled slightly again in April.  As I posted before, its going to be slow-going now to get from 3.4% to the 2% target.  That's just how it works.  Were doing quite well having gone from the peak of 9% to the current level.  It may take a year or more to get from the current level to 2%. 

Inflation is rising 1/10 of a point slower, than last month, at least until the numbers are adjusted up.

Wow! Let's throw a party. That totally cancels out gas up 50%, food up nearly 40%, electricity up 30%, housing costs up 50%, etc etc the last 3 years.

[ShortCutie7]

24 minutes ago, KeepItReal said:

Nope, it is not. Hyperinflation is what most economists and accountants would consider "sky rocketing." Hyperinflation is 50% increase every month. Now THAT is sky rocketing! 🤓

Now I see what you mean!  They are both significant differences but not comparable to each other.

[edinbrooklyn]

I don’t have a problem with people in lower end service jobs making more. To me, the idea that someone in a full time job needs welfare to survive seems perverse. 

[+ augustus]

Then the media and government reports that "Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, logged their lowest increase since April 2021".... So the measure of inflation excludes food and energy (and a lot of other things)  The two items that impact consumers most.  Any wonder why the public says "BS".  

[marylander1940]

On 5/5/2024 at 7:56 PM, augustus said:

It is astonishing how people believe the propaganda that inflation is the result of the greedy farmers and the greedy businessmen and supply side disruptions and whatever crap is told them.  Inflation is caused by excess money printing to finance large government deficits and it continues unabated to this day.  

I remember once we had a surplus... After that 8 years of spending like a drunk sailor... 

Did we try to print our way out of Covid-19? Wasn't that in 2020?

[BSR]

5 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Same old posters pushing the same old nonsense. Sheesh…it’s like a broken record. The reality is that huge headway has been made on the inflation front.  The rest will be slow-going. 
 

Anyone that thinks the economic consequences of COVID are over with is clueless about what’s gone on.   Supply chain problems continue in a big way. Millions left the workforce either by choice or cause they died of COVID. Many places are still not fully staffed.  Think hotels, restaurants, retail stores, etc. Even factories continue to be understaffed. Nearly every place I drive by here in Michigan still has “Now Hiring” signs out. 
 

When there is a shortage of workers, wages go up. Our local Burger King is paying $18/hr for full time workers and $16/hr for part time. This is much higher than the state-mandated minimum wage.  It’s just what they have to pay to get applicants. Otherwise, prospective employees feel it’s not worth their time. 
 

We are still feeling the economic fallout from COVID…so making that final move down to 2% inflation will be slow-going. 
don’t expect restaurant prices to fall as long as we continue to have a worker shortage in our country. 

Blaming inflation all on Covid is a lie of omission.  We also printed $trillions out of thin air, which for obvious reasons causes inflation.  Just look at the inflation rate of Switzerland, which maintained fiscal discipline.