Pandemic preparation? ?

[+ stevenkesslar]

Dr. Fauci is not an economist. But right now I think the scientists are the best economists around. I think his goal is to get Americans hunkered down, so that we can be like Shandong, or Jiangsu. They will take a heavy hit. They have already. But it won't be a Depression, as long as we take the steps that we know worked there, or in South Korea

 

I'm adding this as an amendment to the above. Again, I think if we want to know whether we are heading into a recession or a Great Depression, the best thing to do is ask a scientist, not an economist. I posted a different part of this long interview in a different thread.

 

Dr. Fauci is a straight shooter. The answer to whether we will have a Great Depression or not is ................... we don't know. But we know what we can do to tip the scale to the recession end. The good news is that other countries have proven they can suppress or mitigate this in a few months:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102777/south-korea-covid-19-daily-new-cases/

 

It's not great news that in the last few days the number of new cases in South Korea have inched up a little. But the US as a whole is now diagnosing over 1000 new cases a day, which was the peak in South Korea back in late February before they hunkered down.

 

HH: Now Dr. I want to close with you, and Senator Cotton’s coming up pretty quick. But the big unanswered question, because I don’t know that many members of the White House press corps have actually read The Great Influenza, is that between its appearance in Kansas in the spring of 1918 and its devastating second wave, it went through 12 iterations according to John Barry’s book. And the second and third and fourth, they got deadlier. The hardest question for me to answer is during the summer when the virus appears to disappear, will it be iterating into a more deadly virus? Is there any science to tell us if we’re like getting crowd immunity, or if it’s going to come back in a more virulent form?

 

AF: You know, we do not know. When we suppressed the SARS Coronavirus, it went away and never came back. We are hoping that if we can suppress this by mitigation and by containment over the next few months that when we get into the deep summer, that it will disappear. If it doesn’t and comes back, hopefully, that will give us more breathing room to develop therapies as well as a vaccine. But the direct answer to your question is we do not know if it will come back and how it will come back. It’s a possibility, but we just need to be prepared for it.

 

 

I'll springboard off what Dr. Fauci said and suggest an optimistic way to think about this. The worst case scenario is that there will be a second, and even deadlier wave, this Fall. But it pretty much can't get worse than Ebola or AIDS, as far as mortality to untreated individuals goes. So let's assume that happens.

 

We don't know when we will have "herd immunity", which is a term scientists generally use to describe the purpose of a vaccine. It's up to us whether we have herd intelligence. It's completely up to us. And that is exactly why South Korea was on this quicker than most. They've been through this before, fairly recently. In effect, the acquired herd intelligence.

 

If we can get this genie back in the bottle, the optimistic view is that like China and South Korea and Singapore we will be far better prepared to not let it back out.

[+ bashful]

Well it seems I won’t be going to Puerto Vallarta after all. United Airlines could and would guarantee my flight there on Saturday, the 21st but couldn’t and wouldn’t guarantee my flight home on the 28th. The agent on the United customer service line was great. She assured me that the flight would “most likely” be a go. However, on the Q.T. she told me that if she were in my place she wouldn’t take the chance – I cancelled. The condo owner of the place I rented has been fantastic and I am rescheduled for Saturday, November 7th – Saturday, November 14th. Tomorrow I will cancel my LAX valet parking.

 

As someone else said in retrospect 2019 is looking awfully good.

 

I have a travel certificate on UA that I got when I had to cancel a trip earlier. it will expire in September. In the next week or so, when the lock downs, and flight reductions continue, I’ll call and see what if anything can be extended. I hate to lose it as it’s over a grand. I’m hoping at the least, I don’t have to complete the travel by September, because, let’s face it, it‘s a big unknown what if any hotels will be open.

[+ tassojunior]

I have a travel certificate on UA that I got when I had to cancel a trip earlier. it will expire in September. In the next week or so, when the lock downs, and flight reductions continue, I’ll call and see what if anything can be extended. I hate to lose it as it’s over a grand. I’m hoping at the least, I don’t have to complete the travel by September, because, let’s face it, it‘s a big unknown what if any hotels will be open.

 

There are reports on the frequent traveler blogs that they will extend them . Best experiences seem to be contacting them on social media. They are very slow communicating right now.

[Guest]

One Las Vegas strip club is staying open amid a 30-day shutdown recommended by Gov. Steve Sisolak and taking social distancing to another level by offering drive-through strip shows.

 

Little Darlings strip club will begin offering drive-through strip shows for those who want to indulge in some adult entertainment, but do not want to enter the building, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending people keep 6 feet in distance between themselves and others.

 

“We’re going to offer drive-up window strip shows,” said Ryan Carlson, director of operations for Little Darlings. “Guests can drive up to the front door and we’re going to have dancers separate by the 6-foot separation rule and they can enjoy a totally nude show right from the seat of their car.”

 

 

The 10 minute drive-up peep-shows will run a patron $100 — tips encouraged — and are expected to begin at 8 p.m. Saturday and continue as demand warrants.

 

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/las-vegas-strip-club-to-offer-totally-nude-drive-through-peep-show-1985402/

[+ tassojunior]

One Las Vegas strip club is staying open amid a 30-day shutdown recommended by Gov. Steve Sisolak and taking social distancing to another level by offering drive-through strip shows.

 

Little Darlings strip club will begin offering drive-through strip shows for those who want to indulge in some adult entertainment, but do not want to enter the building, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending people keep 6 feet in distance between themselves and others.

 

“We’re going to offer drive-up window strip shows,” said Ryan Carlson, director of operations for Little Darlings. “Guests can drive up to the front door and we’re going to have dancers separate by the 6-foot separation rule and they can enjoy a totally nude show right from the seat of their car.”

 

 

The 10 minute drive-up peep-shows will run a patron $100 — tips encouraged — and are expected to begin at 8 p.m. Saturday and continue as demand warrants.

 

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/las-vegas-strip-club-to-offer-totally-nude-drive-through-peep-show-1985402/

 

 

In DC they used to have live nude shows in rooms with windows and booths. The booths were not very sanity. Cars are better.

[+ goosh69]

Population density, the holy grail of the Smart Growth crowd, has a lot to do with a pandemic's spread. High rises with common doors and elevators and subways and buses and crowded sidewalks make a pandemic 100x worse. The US will do better in our sparsely-populated areas and suburbs and with people who drive cars. It may not even hit most people there.

 

It's weird that we are now in semi-shutdown in dense population centers. My desire would be to get out of a dense center to a rural area for the duration of a pandemic.

 

so many of the less dense places are not taking this seriously AND have few tests in hospitals. So in the end Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas will get hit much harder than places like SF or NY or the entire state of Ohio. This post will age well. I will reply in a month.

[Walker1]

I'm adding this as an amendment to the above. Again, I think if we want to know whether we are heading into a recession or a Great Depression, the best thing to do is ask a scientist, not an economist. I posted a different part of this long interview in a different thread.

 

Dr. Fauci is a straight shooter. The answer to whether we will have a Great Depression or not is ................... we don't know. But we know what we can do to tip the scale to the recession end. The good news is that other countries have proven they can suppress or mitigate this in a few months:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102777/south-korea-covid-19-daily-new-cases/

 

It's not great news that in the last few days the number of new cases in South Korea have inched up a little. But the US as a whole is now diagnosing over 1000 new cases a day, which was the peak in South Korea back in late February before they hunkered down.

 

HH: Now Dr. I want to close with you, and Senator Cotton’s coming up pretty quick. But the big unanswered question, because I don’t know that many members of the White House press corps have actually read The Great Influenza, is that between its appearance in Kansas in the spring of 1918 and its devastating second wave, it went through 12 iterations according to John Barry’s book. And the second and third and fourth, they got deadlier. The hardest question for me to answer is during the summer when the virus appears to disappear, will it be iterating into a more deadly virus? Is there any science to tell us if we’re like getting crowd immunity, or if it’s going to come back in a more virulent form?

 

AF: You know, we do not know. When we suppressed the SARS Coronavirus, it went away and never came back. We are hoping that if we can suppress this by mitigation and by containment over the next few months that when we get into the deep summer, that it will disappear. If it doesn’t and comes back, hopefully, that will give us more breathing room to develop therapies as well as a vaccine. But the direct answer to your question is we do not know if it will come back and how it will come back. It’s a possibility, but we just need to be prepared for it.

 

 

I'll springboard off what Dr. Fauci said and suggest an optimistic way to think about this. The worst case scenario is that there will be a second, and even deadlier wave, this Fall. But it pretty much can't get worse than Ebola or AIDS, as far as mortality to untreated individuals goes. So let's assume that happens.

 

We don't know when we will have "herd immunity", which is a term scientists generally use to describe the purpose of a vaccine. It's up to us whether we have herd intelligence. It's completely up to us. And that is exactly why South Korea was on this quicker than most. They've been through this before, fairly recently. In effect, the acquired herd intelligence.

 

If we can get this genie back in the bottle, the optimistic view is that like China and South Korea and Singapore we will be far better prepared to not let it back out.

Perhaps. But everything is at a peak. Housing, stocks just a month ago. Housing hasn't even started its descent and it does a lot slower. Is the DOW done or just a half way down? I am lucky I sold my rental property-horrible property taxes, no appreciation and everyone fleeing the state and this was before this pandemic. But worldwide, it is a bit different. Travel between Europe and the US had been shut down and many countries have instituted travel bans to other countries. India for example has banned everybody but their citizens-because they have very few cases-mostly from people returning from abroad and want to keep it that way. At the very least it will impact a few quarters. Will it just go back up or if housing starts going down-who knows. My entire company is working remote-bar extremely essential personal -who knows for how long. Companies might enjoy this curtailment of business travel and may eye smaller workspaces and make it semi permanent. Restaurants that are closed for a month or two still have to pay rent, loans etc -just a mess. It is not the old days of WWII where cash was king. Now everything is credit and our country is borrowing trillions. Who knows how this ends.

 

Or we may become like Europe or Japan with no growth and who really knows? Of course one point is usually when I panic the bottom is near and when I get comfortable the top is near !

[+ GregM]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/B95SeYdAlRg/?igshid=1sm35ov0ffqhf

[Guest]

I am just wondering if this is going to be another Great Depression?

 

+1

[Guest]

so many of the less dense places are not taking this seriously AND have few tests in hospitals. So in the end Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas will get hit much harder than places like SF or NY or the entire state of Ohio. This post will age well. I will reply in a month.

 

Texas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and Wyoming.

Every official in these gawd awful states, were elected by the folks who live there. Never forget that.

[+ stevenkesslar]

Perhaps. But everything is at a peak. Housing, stocks just a month ago. Housing hasn't even started its descent and it does a lot slower. Is the DOW done or just a half way down? Travel between Europe and the US had been shut down and many countries have instituted travel bans to other countries. At the very least it will impact a few quarters. Will it just go back up or if housing starts going down-who knows. My entire company is working remote-bar extremely essential personal -who knows for how long. Restaurants that are closed for a month or two still have to pay rent, loans etc -just a mess. Who knows how this ends.

 

I own a bunch of real estate. I'll tell you my personal take on that. It is a crap shoot. Mostly, our fate depends on things you and I have no control over.

 

I know my fate depends in part on national leadership. By that I mean: 1) the money I have in the stock market, a big chunk of which just evaporated; 2) the real estate I own, which is most of my net worth, 3) if I am unfortunate enough to contract Coronavirus, and then doubly unfortunate to get really sick and require hospitalization. If I lived in China in anyplace other than Wuhan, the third point would not be a concern. The death rate was between 0 % and 1 % in each province. I'm pretty sure the issue was not inadequate care, but just being really old and sick. In Italy, the death rate looks to be closer to 10 %. Including some younger people. I'm not in a risk group, but I don't really like those odds.

 

If we have a tidal wave of death like Italy, it's going to further undermine confidence. Our economy is built on consumer confidence. People won't go to movies and plays if they think that puts them in a hospital without beds or respirators. So the scientists are now the economists. If we want to avoid a Depression, we should do exactly what the scientists say. They are unanimous.

 

Before this hit, I figured when the recession came it would be like a "9/11 recession". In the US, that actually lasted from March 2001 to November 2001. It came after a decade long bull run. It was past due, but an unexpected crisis helped it along. Take away killer airplanes, add a killer bug, and it's kind of the same thing. During that entire time period, home prices mostly went sideways.

 

 

There was no big housing slump around 2001, like there was in the stock market. The S & P 500 lost about half its value. If the question is how far the S & P might plummet, losing half its peak value in this recession might not be a bad bet.

 

Average home prices now, in real dollar terms, are as high as they have ever been. My house is worth $400,000. That's actually the same or a bit lower than you could have sold it for 15 years ago, at the height of the California bubble. When you adjust for inflation, that means it's actually much cheaper than it was at the height of the predatory lending bubble. So it's not cheap. But it would have to go up a lot to get back to 2006 levels. My best guess until a month ago was we'd go through a modest recession, like in 2001. Like in the chart above, around 1999 to 2001, we'd just have a housing market that went sideways. So far, that is actually what's been happening.

 

I also figured if I'm wrong, this won't be like the predatory lending crisis. There may be a bubble, but not like 15 years ago. In fact, there is massive unmet demand - by Millennials, in particular. They are old enough to want to actually own homes to raise families in. Spending a few months stuck in a crappy little apartment, maybe with a sick partner or kid they can't isolate, will only reinforce their desire to own a larger home with a guest bedroom. If prices go down a little, and are a bit more affordable in 2021 or 2022, so much the better for them. They'll buy.

 

If we can do what China and South Korea and even Kuwait managed to do, and get this virus under control in two months, this will not be a Great Depression. The idea that we can eradicate it, now that it is all over the globe, is probably wishful thinking. That said, if it can be controlled in China and South Korea, it can be controlled here. 9/11 is probably actually a very good psychological model. We didn't eradicate terrorism. We did learn to live with it. To extend the analogy, we did prevent any other attack that killed 3000 people in one city. We did not stop an attack in Paris or London, that killed a fraction of that number. Our biggest mistake was we overreacted with the Iraq War. So, if we are smart, we can control this if it pops back up in Paris or London, or Chicago or Atlanta. Hopefully, we will be on top of it immediately. Let's just avoid going to war with Iran or China, okay?

 

The good news is that everything I am saying is based on science. The really good news is that nothing I am saying is rocket science. Right now, we desperately need some honesty. And some clear rules on public health that we will all want to follow. For our own good and for the nation's good. Yes, I'm talking Dr. Fauci. He's my hero right now. (Well, him and @purplekow, who is literally in the trenches.)

 

Now, this next part is NOT science. But it is what I think will determine whether we have a recession, or a Great Depression. It involves two communications with two of my tenants. Next week I'll communicate with all my tenants, to see how this is impacting them. But these two reached out to me. I suspect in part because they are scared, and want reassurance.

 

The first is a youngish couple with two kids. It was no surprise that they have no income right now, and are sheltering at home. They told me they are fine, and they have enough money to pay April rent and maybe May rent. I told them I'm fine, and will be giving all my tenants some sort of temporary partial rent credit. But I don't know what it is yet. If they get $2000 or $4000 in checks in the next few weeks (they are talking about $1000 or maybe $2000 per adult) that would help a lot. I will probably cut their rent $500 a month or so for the next few months. As long as they can go back to work by June, they'll be fine. That scenario sounds to me like a V-shaped recession. China's unemployment rate just went up 1 %. That's not a Depression, if the world comes back with them.

 

The second tenant is a good friend and escort buddy. During this phone conversation he told me he had only one appointment scheduled this week for $300. He asked me whether I thought he should take it. I told him emphatically if it were me I would cancel it. Apart from the fact that we both have a local order to shelter in place, I think it would be nuts to maybe get sick, or maybe get someone else sick, for $300. I did tell him if this was any number of clients that used to hire me years ago for a week or two, and one of them wanted me to hunker down with him on the clock for a week, I might do that. I'm not morally opposed to COVID-19 whoring between two consenting adults. That said, my inner Dr. Fauci tells me it's probably a bad idea. The longer we have new cases of people infecting yet more new people, the longer this once in a century crisis goes on. If the government will pay me $2000 for a vacation from whoring, I'm happy to watch porn and jack off, personally.

 

He is also my tenant. If he follows my advice I know he doesn't have enough cash to pay rent for two months and still have money for food and anything else. Again, $1000 or $2000 from the government would help him a lot. To me, this is a no brainer. The more people that say, "Ah, fuck it" the more people get infected. The more people that get infected, the more people end up in hospitals. The more people end up in hospitals, the more stress it puts on a medical house of cards. And the more people die. At some point, it's a very ugly downward spiral. Aka "Italy".

 

If this goes on for six months, which it could, we're all fucked. None of my tenants will be able to pay me rent. I won't be able to pay my mortgages. I've just revealed something I never did before: Steven Kesslar's Secret Recipe For A Great Depression. I'm a shitty cook, folks. I'd suggest we give this recipe a pass.

 

China and South Korea did figure out how to contain this virus in two months. If we can all just stay home and get tested and treated as needed, we SHOULD be able to go back to work by June. I have zero confidence that our current leader will ever be ahead of the curve. But we are moving out of denial, I hope. So it will probably take more like three months. I'll figure it out as I go, as I always do.

 

But there is no question what will keep us out of a Depression. We have to all agree that we are all in this together. And we have to agree that we will just wait a few months to touch, or kiss, or fuck. If we can do that, we'll just have a recession. Think of the recovery as makeup sex, or a deferred orgasm. We just need to stay home and stay well. That is what I'm telling all my tenants.

 

There are millions of small businesses that I suspect are thinking pretty much like me. They are trying to be both smart, and compassionate. That doesn't have a partisan bias, or a party label. I do believe this is America's finest hour. We'll pull together, just like we pulled together after 9/11. If we do this right, it will be like the 9/11 recession. If we fuck it up, or if the virus just turns out to be smarter than we are, all bets are off.

Edited March 19, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[+ stevenkesslar]

so many of the less dense places are not taking this seriously AND have few tests in hospitals. So in the end Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas will get hit much harder than places like SF or NY or the entire state of Ohio. This post will age well. I will reply in a month.

 

And anybody in the US with a brain or a calculator would think, "That might be why we need to stop domestic travel, and perhaps have a national one month quarantine."

 

A week ago we could be excused for thinking that it's okay to go to a place with few infections. We should now realize that by doing so, we are just digging our hole deeper. We'll leave California to go to Kansas. By doing so, we'll turn Kansas into California. And by the time we get home, California will look like Italy. And if you do happen to get sick along the way, good luck with that. There is no Glinda, and no Wizard Of Oz. Better to just jack off and think, "There's no place like home."

 

This problem will solve itself. If @goosh69 is right, we'll be under martial law. Gov. DeWine thinks there's 100,000 infected people in Ohio. If he is right, and they keep infecting more people, we're into Great Depression.

 

Sanjay Gupta said the theory is that once you get past 1 % of the population, you just can't do containment anymore. So basically you then jump to 20 %, or 40 %, or 60 %. Maybe that's just a theory, and maybe it's wrong. But it scares the shit out of me.

 

Ohio has just under 12 million people. So if DeWine is right, they are pushing 1 % already. That alone means maybe 10,000 hospitalizations and 1,000 deaths.

 

Try doing the math if it jumps to 20 % or 60 % of the population, pretty much all at once.

[+ augustus]

@stevenkesslar Sorry to hear about your money troubles. But, if you're desperate for cash and have something of real value you're willing to sell, contact me and don't expect to get anything near what you think it's worth.

[+ stevenkesslar]

@stevenkesslar Sorry to hear about your money troubles. But, if you're desperate for cash and have something of real value you're willing to sell, contact me and don't expect to get anything near what you think it's worth.

 

Thanks for the offer, Auggie. You're such a sweetie. It's one of the reasons I have so much respect for you.

 

That said, Nancy's got my back. More importantly, she has my tenants' backs, which was of course the point of my rant. But then, you knew that, already. Can't say more than that in this forum. But we're good.

 

And thank you for exposing your altruism. Not to mention your fangs. They're adorable.

 

Let me me know if you need a hand with anything, though, Auggie. Like toilet paper. I'll just make sure to wear gloves.

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[MrMattBig]

Didnt know where else to post this.

Flying home from Boston to Vegas right now.

Airport is EMPTY! Probably close to a dozen TSA agents on their phones. Very stark contrast to what the scene must have been for international arrivals a few days ago.

[+ Charlie]

A friend who is an airline stewardess operating out of LAX says most of her flights are almost empty now.

[MikeBiDude]

A friend who is an airline stewardess operating out of LAX says most of her flights are almost empty now.

Good....people are paying attention!

[+ E.T.Bass]

Rather than joining together with my buddies for coffee, we did a WebEx meeting last night.

 

Was good to see familiar faces and chat. Relieved some stress.

[+ tassojunior]

Airplanes are pretty antiseptic these days. Amazing how scrubbed down seats etc are with strong anti-virals and then there's the air-purifier system. Those flight attendants who work in them make damn sure.

 

OTOH grocery stores and voting lines are the most contagious spots probably. And if you're unlucky enough to have to use subways or buses.....

[+ bigjoey]

There may be a drug:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/

 

If expanded tests work.....

[Mjonis]

There may be a drug:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/

 

If expanded tests work.....

Isn’t that what the Chinese used along with Kaletra or something in experimental treatment?

[MikeBiDude]

Isn’t that what the Chinese used along with Kaletra or something in experimental treatment?

Did you read the article or just the headline?

[Guest]

[+ FreshFluff]

I decided to fly back home to NY today. I was supposed to go back in February but had to stay for a few more weeks. I’m at greater risk there, but I’d rather put myself at risk than my parents. Plus, we keep different hours, which gets hard when we’re all locked down. Wish me luck.

[MidwestCoastal]

Day 3.5 working from home.... and we're going to be working from home until, at a minimum, mid-April..... my Fortune 50 company is doing a decent job with support functions..... but everyone is freaked out and stressed out..... people with kids, especially small kids, look just haggard on every video conference call.

 

The urban grocery stores are Soviet scary with no bread, no pasta, no rice, no meat, limited dairy, limited canned foods..... still decent fresh fruit and veggies..... Amazon, Fresh Direct, and Instacart have no deliveries unless you order 4-5 days out.

 

I have 1%-er guilt.... I miss my delivery services, laundry service, cleaning service, and service services. I definitely now understand how ridiculously privileged I am when I look at what millions of Americans are facing - 20% unemployment!? I'm worried if the economy tanks beyond the summer, my group may be hit with layoffs.

 

The biggest question I'm facing - Should I buy a Peloton? I just got into a semi-good groove with diet and starting to workout again and now literally no options.

 

My 76yo mother is fine; my sister is having a nervous breakdown having to home school the kids.

 

I have got to stop watching the news. I'm depressed that I am single and alone.

 

Any gamers out there? I wouldn't mind a gaming buddy or buddies.