Pandemic preparation? ?

[Guest]

I suggest reading this trenchant analysis by engineer Liz Specht. She calculates that the US will be facing collapse of our health care system by mid-May.

 

[MEDIA=twitter]1236095180459003909[/MEDIA]

[BSR]

I suggest reading this trenchant analysis by engineer Liz Specht. She calculates that the US will be facing collapse of our health care system by mid-May.

 

[MEDIA=twitter]1236095180459003909[/MEDIA]

 

Thanks for that tweet thread. Her analysis sounds spot-on. Even in the most conservative scenario, our healthcare system will be overwhelmed in just 2-3 months.

[+ oldNbusted]

I suggest reading this trenchant analysis by engineer Liz Specht. She calculates that the US will be facing collapse of our health care system by mid-May.

 

[MEDIA=twitter]1236095180459003909[/MEDIA]

 

How about by the end of March?

[Epigonos]

Do let's keep in mind that "Chicken Little" just might proved to be correct after all!

[MikeBiDude]

Do let's keep in mind that "Chicken Little" just might proved to be correct after all!

[KeepItReal]

Bunch of Debbie Downers. Now daddy needs a stiff drink!

[+ tassojunior]

What ?

Angela Merkel estimates that 60% to 70% of the German population will contract the coronavirus

 

https://news.yahoo.com/angela-merkel-just-estimated-60-184506028.html

 

Of course no wonder with the safety instructions they're putting out:

 

[+ FrankR]

Bunch of Debbie Downers. Now daddy needs a stiff drink!

A stiff “something” for sure - if a drink is the best you can do...

[Guest]

Italy has reported 10,000 cases and about 600 deaths. That's a 6% mortality rate.

[BSR]

Italy has reported 10,000 cases and about 600 deaths. That's a 6% mortality rate.

 

Doesn't that assume that all people infected have been tested? If you're young & healthy, you might have had it & recovered without ever getting tested.

[+ tassojunior]

Italy has reported 10,000 cases and about 600 deaths. That's a 6% mortality rate.

 

South China Post from Hong Kong has several articles staring at this link that don't sound good. Merkel may be right in that 70% prediction.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

[+ Charlie]

Right now we are dealing with all sorts of incomplete statistics: 1) we don't know how many people are currently infected but have no symptoms; 2) we don't know how many people are ill, but haven't been tested to confirm a diagnosis; 3) we don't know how many people were ill but have already recovered; 3) we don't know how many people became infected but did not become ill; 5) we don't know how many people became infected and died, but the cause of death was attributed to something else; 6) we don't know how many people who have been tested and diagnosed will actually die in the near future; 7) we don't know if there are long term effects of infection, which may contribute to death in the more distant future. In other words, it is much too soon to make firm conclusions on the death rate of COVID-19 vs. influenza, a disease on which we have many years of reliable information. The one certainty is that both diseases are potentially lethal to a significant number of people who are exposed to them.

[+ tassojunior]

Right now we are dealing with all sorts of incomplete statistics: 1) we don't know how many people are currently infected but have no symptoms; 2) we don't know how many people are ill, but haven't been tested to confirm a diagnosis; 3) we don't know how many people were ill but have already recovered; 3) we don't know how many people became infected but did not become ill; 5) we don't know how many people became infected and died, but the cause of death was attributed to something else; 6) we don't know how many people who have been tested and diagnosed will actually die in the near future; 7) we don't know if there are long term effects of infection, which may contribute to death in the more distant future. In other words, it is much too soon to make firm conclusions on the death rate of COVID-19 vs. influenza, a disease on which we have many years of reliable information. The one certainty is that both diseases are potentially lethal to a significant number of people who are exposed to them.

One of the wonderful things about a police state/surveillance state like China is we do have detailed statistics just now being compiled. Whether a free society can take the measures they did to stop the pandemic is the question. And it's hard to verify their "facts".

[Guest]

How about Lockdown Preparation ??

That's right, imagine the entire US under lockdown? (Not to mention the infections / deaths that we know are coming.) The socio-economic fallout would make the Great Depression pale in comparison.

[RealAvalon]

One of the wonderful things about a police state/surveillance state like China is we do have detailed statistics just now being compiled. Whether a free society can take the measures they did to stop the pandemic is the question. And it's hard to verify their "facts".

Canada, which has a public health care 'system,' has taken the tact of testing as many people as possible. Both to determine the extent of the spread of the infection and also to be able to identify individuals affected. Then action can be taken to contain the virus spread, self-quarantine, testing people that the infected person has been in contact with, determining where the possible source of the infection. Anyone showing up to hospital with flu symptoms, across the country, is tested.

 

It's all covered under that national public health insurance program (no wasted time on determining coverage through a myriad differing private insurance companies).

 

I don't know if you consider that 'surveillance state' - but it's organized, thought through, and so far seems to be effective. One death reported so far, a man in his 80's with numerous underlying conditions beyond COVID19. One community contact. All the rest, so far, are from overseas travel.

[hypothetically]

The CDC estimates that during the 2019 flu season 30,000 Americans will have died. If one divides that number by 365 it come out that on average 82.19 Americans died on a daily basis. Now how many Americans have thus far died from the coronavirus? Furthermore I would like to know the AGE of all those who have died. I would also like to have a brief description of the medical condition, of those who died, at the time they contracted the virus.

 

this website breaks it down case by case and mentions who had underlying health conditions, as well as number of those who have recovered, etc

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[BSR]

this website breaks it down case by case and mentions who had underlying health conditions, as well as number of those who have recovered, etc

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Thanks for the link; it provides a lot of very interesting information. Coronavirus definitely affects the elderly disproportionately. The death rate of those 80+ is 14.8% whereas the death rate for those 10-39 is just 0.2%. It also has a disproportionate death rate for those with other preexisting health issues. People with heart disease die of coronavirus at a 10.5% rate whereas those with no preexisting conditions at just 0.9%. Also interesting that to date no children under 10 have died of coronavirus whereas many children die of the flu each year, although contamination of the flu is far more widespread than coronavirus is so far.

[JulianLondon]

[Also interesting that to date no children under 10 have died of coronavirus whereas many children die of the flu each year, although contamination of the flu is far more widespread than coronavirus is so far.]

 

They have yet to develop the receptor in the lungs that the virus is attaching itself to.

[hypothetically]

Thanks for the link; it provides a lot of very interesting information. Coronavirus definitely affects the elderly disproportionately. The death rate of those 80+ is 14.8% whereas the death rate for those 10-39 is just 0.2%. It also has a disproportionate death rate for those with other preexisting health issues. People with heart disease die of coronavirus at a 10.5% rate whereas those with no preexisting conditions at just 0.9%. Also interesting that to date no children under 10 have died of coronavirus whereas many children die of the flu each year, although contamination of the flu is far more widespread than coronavirus is so far.

 

..exactly, I wish more people would pay attention to the details because all of this mass hysteria (mostly coming from people who are disproportionately unaffected( is unwarranted, and exhausting. Everyone thinks you just get COVID-19 and immediately die, and that’s so aggressive abs untrue.

[+ Pensant]

Went to a nearby CVS over the weekend for few items. Checked the aisle with miniature hand sanitizer. All gone completely empty. At the counter, mentioned to the associate of being sold out. She said two guys came in and bought ALL the sanitizer in stock.

 

I bet serious money these guys plan to resell the hand sanitizer on Amazon or EBay. No doubt they hit other stores and bought every hand sanitizer they could grab.

 

The Pandemic of Fear is going to be very profitable for some people.

I had to restock batteries at the local hardware store. While I was there, I picked up a box of 10 3M N95 respirators for $20. When I checked on Amazon later, the same box was selling for almost $400! I know they’re of limited effectiveness, but that should give you an idea of the panic.

[+ Pensant]

I am supposed to go to London in August to celebrate a big birthday. I will be severely depressed if I can't go.

I’m glad I haven’t booked my late August travel yet. I imagine, if it’s possible to travel then, that I should be able to get a pretty good biz class fare.

[+ Pensant]

Canada, which has a public health care 'system,' has taken the tact of testing as many people as possible. Both to determine the extent of the spread of the infection and also to be able to identify individuals affected. Then action can be taken to contain the virus spread, self-quarantine, testing people that the infected person has been in contact with, determining where the possible source of the infection. Anyone showing up to hospital with flu symptoms, across the country, is tested.

 

It's all covered under that national public health insurance program (no wasted time on determining coverage through a myriad differing private insurance companies).

 

I don't know if you consider that 'surveillance state' - but it's organized, thought through, and so far seems to be effective. One death reported so far, a man in his 80's with numerous underlying conditions beyond COVID19. One community contact. All the rest, so far, are from overseas travel.

In times of panic, people are accepting of a firm hand.

[+ Pensant]

If this continues to cascade out of control, should we be worried that the elections will be postponed? I know it’s unthinkable now, but would Trump place the country under martial law? I’m just speculating on all possibilities. The military is probably the most trusted institution in the country right now.

[+ Keith30309]

If this continues to cascade out of control, should we be worried that the elections will be postponed? I know it’s unthinkable now, but would Trump place the country under martial law? I’m just speculating on all possibilities. The military is probably the most trusted institution in the country right now.

That would not surprise me.

(Completely unrelated to a potentially unified Democrat party, of course.)

[+ tassojunior]

Canada, which has a public health care 'system,' has taken the tact of testing as many people as possible. Both to determine the extent of the spread of the infection and also to be able to identify individuals affected. Then action can be taken to contain the virus spread, self-quarantine, testing people that the infected person has been in contact with, determining where the possible source of the infection. Anyone showing up to hospital with flu symptoms, across the country, is tested.

 

It's all covered under that national public health insurance program (no wasted time on determining coverage through a myriad differing private insurance companies).

 

I don't know if you consider that 'surveillance state' - but it's organized, thought through, and so far seems to be effective. One death reported so far, a man in his 80's with numerous underlying conditions beyond COVID19. One community contact. All the rest, so far, are from overseas travel.

 

I was thinking of the Chinese study in the link where they have surveillance cameras in buses and have facial recognition of every resident. They tracked an infected man and everyone on his bus ride and summized which people in which seats he infected.