25 minutes ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Well some folks can’t see the forest through the trees. Let’s get back to the real world.
 

Huge profits announced today by Meta and also Amazon. The market surges.   Then there’s this piece by Axios. 
 

Just a moment...

WWW.AXIOS.COM

The US clearly has performed better than the rest of the developed world since the onset of Covid. I’m actually concerned the economy is just too hot right now to consider interest rate cuts…even in March. Let’s see how things look once we get to March. 

Meta and Amazon do not represent the entire US economy.   What about all the tech layoffs going on?  What about the stress the banking system is now under?  What about the high cost of living?   These issues way override some revenue increases at Meta and Amazon.  BTW, who gives a hoot about Meta?

1 hour ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Just to help with comprehension.  No-one said a strike occurred.  The fact is that UPS lost a significant amount of business over concern there would be a strike in August 2023.  Even though a strike was avoided, UPS still has not recovered all the business that they lost to other shippers in 2023.  Therefore, Qtr4 results were still impacted negatively by events earlier in 2023.

  This was a quote from an analyst during the last seven days:

UPS lost business last year as customers concerned about a possible strike by the Teamsters shifted shipments to rival carriers, such as FedEx. Although UPS said it expects to get most of that business back, it had won back only about 60% of that lost business.

LOL.....can you cite that "analyst".  Might give you some credibility.   UPS 4th quarter 2023 revenue dropped 7.8% from 4th quarter 2022 revenue.  Has absolutely nothing to do with contract talks and a new labor agreement in mid 2023, as you so erroneously stated.   Talk about comprehension OMG. You really think customers were avoiding UPS in the 4th quarter of 2023 after a contract was negotiated in July 2023??

UPS Releases 4Q 2023 Earnings

ABOUT.UPS.COM

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UPS today announced fourth-quarter 2023 consolidated revenues of $24.9 billion, a 7.8% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2022.

1 hour ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

resistance to relocate for whatever reason is a barrier to wealth creation & economic opportunity.  thats the entire problem with the largely unsatisfied & angry groups constantly complaining in the US today - they just want to complain about their situation and ignore the real choices that are within their individual control.  I see it every time I go back to the small town where I grew up - same people doing the same thing for the last 50 years.

 

Most people just can't do that.  They have a job where they already are, so they don't have other real choices.  And moving children and elderly around like vagabonds is just horrible!  

And did you see the news about New York Community Bancorp?  Big real estate losses and much more to come!

6 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

The main dynamic at play for UPS in 2023 was them narrowly avoiding a strike by workers on August 1 over wages and other issues. Negotiations went on for months and many shipping customers started re-directing their shipments through other channels to ensure delivery. UPS lost customers during this period so revenue and profits fell substantially. They have since recovered some of, but not all, the lost business which explains the weak Q4 results  

 

WRONG.  An agreement was reached a week before the previous UPS contract expired.  There was no interruption of service. There was very little "re-directing their shipments" by customers and the size of UPS's reported drop in revenue would mean UPS would have moved NOTHING AT ALL for over a straight month, which obviously didn't happen.  

FURTHERMORE, the UPS contract negotiations were in July, 2023 which was the 3rd quarter.  UPS's latest report which showed a 7.8% drop in revenue was for the 4th quarter, 2023.  

2 hours ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

there’s always a less expensive option than what you have now & lower property taxes too.  choices have consequences- make them wisely

Disagree.  People have jobs, family, etc that confines them to a particular location.   Not everyone can move to a rural area at will to save on housing costs.  Furthermore, inflated real estate values causes harm and misery to anyone looking for housing.  Housing is a utility, like a car or pair of shoes.  You think it would be good if shoes cost $700 a pair?  Or a car cost 250k?  Soaring housing costs damage an economy.  They damage the standard of living, and it becomes a bubble supported by excessive debt which comes crashing down eventually. 

UPS reported its earnings yesterday.  They are laying off 12,000 employees.  Their revenue was DOWN 7.8% from the same quarter last year.  This is most definitely bad news and a sign of an impending recession.  

On 1/20/2024 at 7:59 PM, stevenkesslar said:

Meanwhile, 2 in 3 Americans own homes.  Most with no mortgage or a low fixed rate mortgage.  That is bedrock.  Again, this helps explain why the recession has gone missing.

I disagree with this conclusion.  Because as a member of that 2/3, I'm not a whit "wealthier" from the increase in my property valuation. In fact, I'm actually POORER, since this means increased local and state property taxes, maintanence, insurance etc. on my now-more-valuable home.  I wouldn't even be technically wealthier because to SELL my house I would have to get into the group having to buy another one in this higher prices/higher interest rate/low supply environment.  How is it an increase in wealth if you can’t sell it or monetize it?  This is the fundamental problem with that view. 

1 hour ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

wow.  it’s absolutely dehumanizing to think human beings can be financially taken advantage of bc of their economic or immigration status.  especially in context of sex work.

You really believe paying someone $250 an hour instead of $300 an hour is being "financially taken advantage of"???  Are these migrants burdened with taxes like the rest of us, or rent, or health insurance costs, etc.  ??   I think it's the migrants that are laughing their asses off.

9 hours ago, mike carey said:

Like @Luv2play my pension is CPI indexed, biannually in my case, and my house has increased in value but I'm not planning to sell it so its value is, for now, immaterial. So whether it's real, an illusion or just that I have settled into a new pattern, I feel better off now than I did in 2020.

But an Australian told me the pensions there are not really generous.  Like $2000 a month for an individual and $3000 a month for couples.  In US dollars that's 30% less.

13 hours ago, Walt said:

I remember a very high stakes prediction similar to this involving Henny Penny, Foxy Loxy, Goosey Loosey, and Turkey Lurkey. They KNEW.

What utter nonsense.  Government spending fueled by debt and consumer spending fueled by credit cards...tick tock tick tock = boom.   Even Robert Rubin, treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, warned about this looming disaster a couple of days ago.  

Some people might notice the looming disaster of the federal debt as the interest payments on the debt approach the highest category of federal spending.  This is going to lead to double digit inflation.   I have to ask, how do you deal with all this spin and not get dizzy? The people KNOW the economy is not good and inflation is ravaging the majority of Americans!  

People are not being fooled by this propaganda.  The economy is a long explanation of vague measurements.  If you've maintained your same lifestyle for years you know at the end of the month after bills if you've got anything left over or not and how that compares to what you had before.   Words can't cover up the fact that you can't afford the same stuff you could before.  Too many people are 2 weeks out from bankruptcy and the soaring costs of EVERTHING does not help the average person!  

Federal government deficit spending for 2023 was 6% of GDP, almost double the GDP "growth."  Smoke and mirrors.  Did anyone read the report and how much Government accounted for GDP? How is that sustainable? The only way it can be sustained is if Government investment spurs economic growth outside of government generating tax revenue to fund the government, and that is NOT happening.  In fact, during the last Federal Budget year tax revenue was down 10% from the year before.

I've read details of this morning's report and things are not good.  Nearly all of this growth came from government deficit spending and consumers going into more debt.   This avoided a recession, but it isn't remotely sustainable, and we'll pay for it in the long run.  There will be catastrophic results from all this debt!  Also, initial jobless claims are rising rapidly. This whole deck of cards is being held up by massive spending by the Federal Government which is not sustainable by the opinion of any reputable economist.

3 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

...and the crowd goes wild!!

No one is going wild, with the price of goods and services up 30-40%.  

On 1/20/2024 at 8:07 PM, BeamerBikes said:

Any advice on how to get a 49yo teenager to wisen up and stop spending excessive unneeded things?  

Been there.  Done that.   They will NEVER change.  Worst of all, they will rationalize things so that it becomes YOUR fault.  They are entitled to their share of the estate, as was given them, but you are not obliged to give them any of your portion.   Let them do as they do.  

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

Actually, no.  There is data.  

Americans' net worth grew 37% after pandemic hit: Fed survey

Real median net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 between 2019-2022

Auggie, it's horrible that the price of cereal has gone up.  It's a wonder that people with $50,000 more in net worth aren't starving to death.  How do they even get by?  And worse, a recession is coming!

Again, there is data.  Y

While its true that the average person with $50,000 more in net worth by 2022 and higher real wages in 2023 can barely afford a bowl of cereal, the fact that we made it past the global inflation and supply chain squeeze might explain why people are feeling better.  Ya think?  The US had lower inflation than most of the rest of the West.  Even though inflation sucks.  And our economy came out the strongest on the planet.  Maybe that helps explain why this recession has gone missing for so long???

It does help explain why my stock nerd nephew's net worth went up hundreds of thousands of dollars........... in the last few day!   He bought SOXL at about $7 a share in Fall 2022 and just kept buying more.  Which speaks to why we might not have a recession.  All that investment in tech and chips is paying off.  The US is the global leader.  I followed my nephew's lead, but own a lot less SOXL.  So my net worth only went up tens of thousands in the last few days.  It's horrible!  A recession must be coming!  

That said, opinions do matter.

😉

That mostly applies to a small percentage of the population, and that figure (which is not out of this world BTW) is concentrated in housing and stock prices, which may, and most likely will, decline.   For the majority of people, things are horrible!  People are fleeing your state left and right because of inflation in housing.  It's all over the news. 

California was bragging about a $100 billion SURPLUS in their state budget a year ago and now California has a $60 billion DEFICIT!  Out of nowhere.  You can't see the forest for the trees.  

American dream far from reality for most people: POLL - ABC News

ABCNEWS.GO.COM

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In a dispiriting sign of the times, barely more than a quarter of Americans say the American dream still holds true, about half as many as said so 13 years ago

So many more people are broken and dispirited than after the 2008-2009 Great Recession and financial crisis.  This is horrible.

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

After a brief break to catch something to eat, we now return you to your regularly scheduled recession.

Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey show

• On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director.
• Consumer sentiment has improved amid a drop in gasoline prices and solid stock market gains.

 

This is horrible.  Doesn't anybody realize a recession is coming?

 

Actually, we don’t feel better about the economy, it’s just taken awhile to adjust our budgets to the inflation shock.  Anybody who shops for groceries know this story is bunk!  

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics.....“The index for cereals and bakery products rose 16.1 percent over the year. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 7.7 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs) to 15.3 percent (dairy and related products)".   And now 2024 insurance premiums are rising at double digit percentages... medical, auto, home, etc. have all skyrocketed.  And real wages have fallen the past 3 years.  This is just straight up gaslighting.  A snow job, just opinions and no data.

On 1/13/2024 at 1:42 PM, Luv2play said:

I would have to go back and look but the most expensive month was over $600 for an 8 room very old house built in 1866. For the season it cost just under $2000.

That's outrageous for an energy rich country.

9 hours ago, Walt said:

Am I misreading?

Yes.  That's as of January 16, 2024.  More are closing now than opening.  It's terrible!

Over 40 Restaurants Have Closed This Month So Far: Here’s Why

NY.EATER.COM

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Dozens of New York restaurants have closed since the start of the year. Five owners explain why.

5 minutes ago, Walt said:

NYC New Restaurant Openings, December 2023 - Eater NY
https://ny.eater.com/2023/12/7/23983007/nyc-restaurant-openings-december-2023

NYC’s Most Anticipated Restaurant Openings of 2024 - Eater NY
https://ny.eater.com/2024/1/10/24023017/nycs-anticipated-restaurant-openings-2024

 

 

NYC Restaurant Closings, December 2023 - Eater NY

40 New York Restaurants Closed in January: Here’s Why - Eater NY

More are closing than opening.  It's terrible!

Look, if she would have just tried to run the school in a neutral way that took the needs of the students first, she'd still be there.  Unfortunately, that's not where society is right now.  

BMO Alto Bank is offering 5.50% for a 1-year CD no minimum and can be opened online.  BMO Alto is a fairly large bank.  It is a subsidiary of Bank of Montreal and FDIC insured.  

Food banks are swamped all over the country because of inflation.  It's all over the news.