augustus

Personally I don't want to know who is on the list.  That list will get you killed more often than rich depending on who you are.  I'm not powerful enough for the latter so it would be the former as most of us would.

11 hours ago, TonyDown said:

Some real world data, be it limited, was a news piece this week about businesses closing in LA including several along Melrose.  

One factor is high rents for leased commercial space.

Does this point to a recession coming?  Even though employees are finding new jobs, how will rising commercial vacancies affect local economies?

 

 

All over the country.  In NYC restaurants are closing left and right.  TGIF just closed 37 locations.  Consumers have run out of purchasing power.

8 hours ago, BSR said:

Not really an analysis, more just telling the whole story.  I started noticing that month after month the government would publish a stellar jobs report with great fanfare, only to very quietly revise it downward a week later.

You are right.  The government has been way overstating job growth.  I'm sure the inflation numbers are fudged too.

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023

WWW.FOXBUSINESS.COM

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Increased government spending and hiring have padded 2023 year-end unemployment numbers by over 400,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

On 1/5/2024 at 9:59 AM, EZEtoGRU said:

Let's get back to facts and the real world.  The December jobs report came in today and blew past expectations indicating that the US economy remains strong and resilient. there is no recession in sight.   Facts actually do matter.

Let's..........THE REAL WORLD:

16 hours ago, BSR said:

Some facts about that rosey jobs report ...

US Labor Market Summarized:

1. 10 out of the last 11 jobs reports revised lower

2. ~25% of jobs gains in 2023 ultimately revised away

3. Government jobs accounted for 25% of December jobs gains

4. Part time jobs UP 762,000, full time jobs DOWN 1.5 million in December

5. Full-time job gains are FLAT for 2023 while part-time is up sharply

6. Inflation adjusted earnings ~3% BELOW 2021 levels

But still, the initial jobs number beats expectations and prints headlines before being revised lower.

Source:  The Kobeissi Letter

This analysis is shocking and speaks volumes about what really is happening.  Things are not well!

I have a very difficult time comparing 2024 to past business cycles as people like to do here.  Big bloated federal government back then compared to unbelievably huge monstrous bloated federal government in every aspect of our lives. I think it is like comparing a stick of dynamite to a hydrogen bomb.  It’s only matter of time before this debt fueled growth comes to an end.

Total Treasury debt at end of 2000 was approx. $5.7T and is now over $33T. Federal budget deficit is over 6% of GDP now during an economic EXPANSION. OMB forecasts over $2T in annual deficits WITHOUT a recession over next 10 years.

Things are just peachy!

The California Teachers Pension fund announced they are seeking a loan for "liquidity purposes" so that they don't have to sell their assets at "fire sale prices"........Translation: their private equity portfolio has turned to crap.

The people have less spending money because prices have come up much faster than most people's pay. This is why we are seeing expansion in poverty for the first time in decades and a shrinking of the middle class. The number of jobs doesn't matter when they are working poor jobs.   My Big Mac meal has gone from $8 to $13 in just 3 years.  That's an increase of 60%!

Synchrony Bank is offering 5.50% on a 15-month CD with no minimum balance.  You can open it online.

Holy Smokes....Google is going to lay off 30,000 employees and replace them with AI.

Kids have always been rotten.  The law is not dealing with them effectively.  

For God's sake, make sure you have a bathtub mat.  I slipped and fell a few years ago and broke my humerus.  Hurt like hell.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/ozempic-patients-are-going-to-the-er-over-severe-side-effects/ar-AA1lUyqn?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=d91cc8a0ef9744f5aec6d96e6b7488c2&ei=15

Here's another interesting article about Ozempic.

On 12/15/2023 at 5:46 PM, pubic_assistance said:

These comments make me thankful that i grew up in a culture that values dedication to others. Especially your elders.

We lived in my grandparents house.

They helped with the bills when we were young.

When my grandparents aged and my grandmother was widowed, my parents took over the caretaking and all the grandchildren participated from time to time. Even if it was just to take my grandmother for a walk when she was in her 90s.

(I used to RACE her down the street when she was in her 60s) and although I did allow her to keep up as not to humiliate her..she WAS pretty damn.fast for her age.

 

"On 9/27/2023 at 9:42 AM, pubic_assistance said:
Too many people live past a true active life.

My own father has been sitting in a chair waiting to die for far too long. Keeping his heart beating with dozens of pills, but devoid of any ability to do anything but watch TV, eat and shit.

I find it rather ridiculous and sad.

It's not a life to live."

There is a conflict between these 2 of your posts.

On 12/19/2023 at 4:44 PM, stevenkesslar said:

That's just not true.  We are actually closer to record lows.  Please fact check.

Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

You may or may not like the fact that two Presidents in a row sent most Americans free money.  Factually, it did help drive consumer debt levels to record lows.  Factually, we have recovered to average low levels of debt, rather than average high levels of debt.  I'm talking about consumer debt, not federal government debt.  So relatively low consumer debt and relatively high consumer net worth would all drive economic growth, not recession.

That's true.  Household debt in nominal dollars is at a record high, but it is not at a record high in inflation adjusted terms or as a percentage of GDP (although it's pretty close).  What definitely is out of control in any terms is the Federal Government's debt level.  It's horrendous.  Worse than 1945 coming out of World War II.  

4 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

Inflation drops below 3% in November. Recession likely avoided. 
 

Inflation finally dips below 3 percent as U.S. economy nears 'soft landing'

STOCKS.APPLE.COM

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A key annual inflation metric fell below 3 percent in November, the latest sign that the U.S. is coming...

 

Inflation slowing from an excessive rate does not mean a recession is likely avoided.  It is not necessarily a direct corollary. 

3 hours ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

the biggest threat to the American economy is political instability.  If something happens where the US is no longer regarded as the safe-haven for global investment & deposits, then all bets are off.  Be careful what you wish for.

Unfortunately for your theory, it wasn't political instability that caused the Euro Crises of 2009.  It was excessive national debt levels.  You see, when people begin to suspect that their savings won't be paid back, they head for the exists.  

1 hour ago, BSR said:

I am on topic.  If/when a recession hits, something will have caused it.  I think that cause will be unprecedented and unsustainable levels of debt.

Exactly. That is the cause of most recessions.  Even the IMF said recently when the recession hits in the US it will have been caused by the excessive debt levels here, particularly the Federal Government.  It really has already started.  The last Federal Fiscal Budget that ended this past October saw tax revenue DROP by 10% compared to the previous fiscal year.  And this is happening when things are supposedly going swimmingly.  

2 hours ago, EZEtoGRU said:

So funny to see how some posters want to transition this thread discussion from a potential recession (that still hasn't happened) to being a discussion about personal and national debt.  I guess if you can't win the one argument then...presto chango...switch to a different topic.   

The national debt has been many decades in the making...under many administrations.  Neither the current nor the prior administration have been nor were concerned with the ever-burgeoning national debt. Shame on both of them.  I think the last time we had a balanced budget in the US was during the Clinton years.

In any case, let's stay on topic.  This thread is a discussion about if a recession is coming.

OMG!   Most recessions are caused by asset bubbles fueled by debt creation.  ECO 101.  The only thing "off topic" to you here are the posts you don't like.  YOU bring up Jaime Dimon and then decide you don't want to hear about anything he said.

2 hours ago, BSR said:

What has far outpaced inflation is debt levels.  Not just federal govt debt, every form of debt has hit record highs:  credit cards, home equity loans, school loans, commercial loans, you name it.  Eventually and inevitably when our economy hits a point where we just can't borrow any more, a gigaton of sh*t will hit the fan.

Exactly.  What these people don't seem to understand is that economic growth built on debt is unsustainable and very dangerous.  The results are always disastrous. That is what Jaime Dimon was talking about!

2 hours ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

of course the keyboard warriors here are much better informed. This is exactly what has been discussed here: perception vs statistical reality 

perhaps the naysayers here aren’t experiencing the same robust economy - personal choices have consequences

Are you serious??   70% of the population think the economy sucks.  There are reasons for that.   

Besides that, many of your previous posts describe an America in decline, according to you. 🤔 

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

This is one of the main reasons median net worth increased from $141,100 in 2019 to $192,900 in 2022.  Sucks, huh?  I know from past posts that you'll now pivot from "The sky is falling!" to "It's a bubble!"  Which one is it? 

That has barely kept pace with inflation.  

Consumers are running on fumes. They are running out of credit.  Inflation has been devastating to our standard of living. My Big Mac meal is now $13 from $8 three short years ago.   Inflation is driving older workers out of retirement into permanent retail and leisure workers until life ends.  Millions of Americans are still struggling: Just look at wage growth, housing ownership rates among young people, white collar job creation, skyrocketing homelessness and the like.

2 hours ago, BSR said:

Some troubling signs loom today.  The one that worries me most is the total amount of debt:  personal (credit cards, school loans, home mortgages, etc.), commercial, and of course government (just checked the National Debt Clock, $33.9 Trillion!).  If you add up all the debt and set it relative to GDP, the multiple is at a record-shattering high and is accelerating like it's racing for pinks.

 

Its prosperity built on debt and people don't or can't see the real picture.

Of course, a recession is coming and a serious one too!   All the “good” economic growth is due to government spending.  Look at the National Debt.  Every household in the country owes $250,000.  Look at California's $68 billion deficit ALL OF A SUDDEN!

For the last quarter, the jobs are ALL in government and healthcare (much of which is funded by government.  The government is running a $2T deficit).  This isn't healthy at all!