SpaceX IPO June 30th! Any takers?

[marylander1940]

OP note: Thanks, but no thanks! Besides the company depends too much in "personal connections". 

 

SpaceX Is Going Public at a $1.75 Trillion Valuation. Here Is 1 Stock to Buy Before It Does. | The Motley Fool

Edited April 27 by marylander1940

[Kevin Slater]

In general, it's not a great idea to take part in IPOs.  Wait at least until the lock-up period is over (when all the insiders are allowed to sell their shares, which often tanks the stock).  

Kevin Slater

[+ JamesB]

SpaceX is definitely not a typical IPO. I would avoid jumping into it immediately and consider waiting past the lock-up period

This is likely to be a “hot” IPO, with intense media coverage, strong retail demand and Elon Musk’s brand potentially driving a sharp first-day surge. If it were to list in June, the lock-up period would typically expire around December 2026. At that point, insiders, early investors, employees and venture backers, many of whom hold substantial stakes, would be able to sell, which often puts downward pressure on the stock as supply increases.

There’s also some speculation that SpaceX could implement a staggered or more flexible lock-up, allowing certain holders to sell earlier, which might add to short-term volatility. At a valuation around $1.75T, the company would be priced for near-perfect execution. Any setbacks, whether delays in Starship, increased competition in satellite services, regulatory hurdles, or a broader market pullback, could lead to a significant correction after the IPO.

[Kevin Slater]

I hate that they're considering altering the rules for S&P inclusion to get SpaceX in earlier than it otherwise would be.

Kevin Slater

[+ FrankR]

11 hours ago, Kevin Slater said:

I hate that they're considering altering the rules for S&P inclusion to get SpaceX in earlier than it otherwise would be.

Kevin Slater

Indeed - it is adding to some of the concerns I have been nursing about Cap based index funds.  Specifically, concentration risk.  I have started to de-risk by shifting to Equal weight index funds. (Instead of ending up with SpaceX at 4% of the fund projected at entry, it will only be 0.2%) 

Edited April 28 by FrankR

[Kevin Slater]

1 hour ago, FrankR said:

Indeed - it is adding to some of the concerns I have been nursing about Cap based index funds.  Specifically, concentration risk.  I have started to de-risk by shifting to Equal weight index funds. (Instead of ending up with SpaceX at 4% of the fund projected at entey, it will only be 0.2%) 

Ticker symbol GSEW with a .09% expense ratio for those interested.

Kevin Slater

[+ FrankR]

10 hours ago, FrankR said:

Indeed - it is adding to some of the concerns I have been nursing about Cap based index funds.  Specifically, concentration risk.  I have started to de-risk by shifting to Equal weight index funds. (Instead of ending up with SpaceX at 4% of the fund projected at entry, it will only be 0.2%) 

 

9 hours ago, Kevin Slater said:

Ticker symbol GSEW with a .09% expense ratio for those interested.

Kevin Slater

Thank you @Kevin Slater.  Just to be clear: this is not a recommendation or financial advice. I am simply sharing what I am doing based on my circumstances.  Always a good idea to consult a licenses professional that knows your circumstances before making big financial decisions.  (And no, you cant afford me!! Haha) 🤓

[marylander1940]

Example of a previous IPO and how long it took to back to its original value:

[+ SundayZip]

Why risk buying shares of SpaceX when you could invest the money in an S&P 500 index fund? You'd own some SpaceX while offsetting the risk by owning shares in 500 companies instead of one. Of course you might be hooked on gambling but that's an entirely different discussion. 

Edited May 3 by SundayZip

[Your Man in Arlington]

My take is that this IPO is partly a strategy to satisfy exit/liquidity needs for investors in X and xAI (including Saudi-run funds), both of which were terrible financial failures. Hard pass for me.

[jeezifonly]

This is interesting. King Elon

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/report-spacex-ipo-gives-musk-unchecked-power-and-forbids-investor-lawsuits/

[jayjaycali]

So 14 days and it's in the NASDAQ 100 .

Index funds are forced to rebalance to include it.  Maybe that spikes the price.  New rules also let VCs exit earlier when it's at those peaks. That might drop the price. 

So, wouldn't it be good to buy in, then sell right before the new early VC exit timeline when VCs sell  (or front run their front running or do some shorting)

Edited May 22 by jayjaycali

[marylander1940]

Will Blue Origin's rocket failure give some contracts to Elon's SpaceX? 

 

Moment Blue Origin rocket explodes during test in Florida

[+ JamesB]

I would say yes, at least in the short term. While setbacks like this are both common and expected in a field as complex as spaceflight, they serve as a reminder of just how difficult reliable access to orbit remains, even for well-funded organizations.

SpaceX has certainly had its own share of spectacular test failures over the years but the timing of this setback is significant. For the foreseeable future, it further reinforces SpaceX’s position as the dominant U.S. launch provider and leaves the government with fewer viable alternatives for critical orbital missions.

[Kevin Slater]

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  

Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).

I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.

Kevin Slater

[+ FrankR]

21 hours ago, Kevin Slater said:

So yesterday, S&P announced SpaceX won't be ramrodded into the index; it'll need to be four quarter GAAP profitable and meet other hurdles prior to inclusion.  So indexes that follow the S&P 500 specifically won't be picking up any SpaceX and time soon.  

Various other etfs and funds have tweeted the rules to include SpaceX much sooner and at various points in time.  Within the first few weeks, it will be around .5% of QQQ, FTEC and ONEQ for example, and ~.1% of VTI and FNILX (Fidelity's no-fee 500 large cap fund).

I'm thrilled not to be forced into participating in a meaningful way as I am skeptical of SpaceX's governance.

Kevin Slater

Good news in my book.  Call me old fashioned if you will…but profits and cashflows are still key metrics in my way of thinking. 

[rojjodc]

4 hours ago, FrankR said:

Good news in my book.  Call me old fashioned if you will…but profits and cashflows are still key metrics in my way of thinking. 

Unfortunately, the market has gone haywire over all things AI, so SpaceX will probably end up in the S&P sooner than later.  The indexes are super-concentrated with Tech and the average PE ratio of the US market is near all time highs.  Equal weighted indexes seem interesting, but maybe value funds may be a good bet for the patient as they have lagged tech dominated tech like forever.  And maybe an actively managed fund that has a long history of good performance with moderate fees for a portion of the portfolio.  And some foreign funds, which have started to out-perform the US a bit that still badly lag over a 5 or 10 year period.  But I now see that foreign markets is now caught up in the AI mania, with Tiawan and South Korea having huge gains because they are dominated by chip stocks.   So any US tech correction will wallop foreign, at least for a while, as what has happened on 6/5/26.

[DMonDude]

Me personally, and like others up thread have mentioned, i will not be partaking in SpaceX any time soon (outside of the automatic exposure from indexes). SpaceX IPO is just so early inside investors can cash out because Elon's lost so much value for them after having them help him buy Twitter and xAI. Both of which are highly unprofitable money furnaces and are now worth a fraction of what he had investors help him buy them for. They both also have been bought by and rolled into SpaceX (Elon just passing money around his own accounts basically) and that's what the IPO is actually selling to retail investors under the guise of finally being able to get in on SpaceX.

xAI in particular are actively throwing billions of dollars into a furnace https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/xai-burned-6-4b-last-222608682.html with plans to spend more and no actual path to profitability in the foreseeable future (OpenAI who also are racing toward a rushed IPO via the same indexes bent rules has the same problem). SpaceX itself, in the past Elon had publicly said he wanted to keep SpaceX private specifically to not have to deal with the pressures and influences of running the company publicly like he does with Tesla. And he could afford to keep SpaceX private if he wanted to.

He's only changed up on this now because he's doing this to bail out Twitter/xAI investors. I do think SpaceX itself has some potential as a long term business, but it's carrying the ball and chain of Twitter and xAI in the short term. And before you see any benefit of how SpaceX as a rocket company will perform, you have to carry the Twitter/xAI ball and chain first. I think retail investors will be left holding the bag when Twitter/xAI investors cash out. Then that potential crash in SpaceX stock price would be the actual preferred buy in point for people who think SpaceX will do well in the future.

Everything about this IPO screams crypto style rug pull to me, personally. You can spot all the tells from that kind of thing in this from a mile away.

Edited Tuesday at 05:12 PM by DMonDude
correction, by to buy