More interesting data regarding Covid

[njr47]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?fbclid=IwAR1YF9KgRIiXgZEFUqvBrein81ryHG_AAACKV9KsHHunxhZkmwxm1EGA_iE

 

Yep, here's the article. To me, this is VERY good news!!

Sort of good news. The WHO researcher just backtracked a litlle about her conclusions

[Todd Jenkins]

Sort of good news. The WHO researcher just backtracked a litlle about her conclusions

I saw this - and I think she was PRESSURED into backtracking. She said what she said in the beginning. Fucking exhausting!

[Guest]

I have to hand it to the New York Times. They seem to be the most objective in their reporting. This was in their Thursday morning briefing, which was sent to my e-mail box:

"We journalists don’t always pay enough attention to good news. So I want to highlight some this morning: Across much of the United States and Europe, the coronavirus has been spreading less rapidly than many people feared.

 

Yes, the caseload is growing in some places, and they’re rightly getting a lot of attention. But the full story is more complex. Over the past six weeks — as communities have started to reopen, Americans have flocked to beaches and lakes and European schools have reopened — the number of new cases has continued falling in many places.

 

Across the Northeast and Midwest of the U.S., they’re down more than 50 percent, and often much more, since May 1. Nationwide, weekly deaths have fallen for six weeks in a row. And Europe “seems to have turned a corner,” Caitlin Rivers of Johns Hopkins University says.

 

How could this be?

 

I put that question to public health experts, and they gave two main answers. One, the virus spreads much less easily outdoors than indoors. “Summer — being outside, warmer weather, humidity — seems to help, and we may have underestimated how much it’s helped,” Ashish Jha, the incoming dean of Brown University School of Public Health, told me.

 

Two, many people are taking more precautions than they were in February and March. They’re wearing masks, remaining six feet apart and being careful about what they touch. “Even absent top-down health interventions” — like lockdowns — “people want to keep themselves safe,” Rivers said.

 

The combination appears to have eliminated most “superspreader events,” like parties, concerts and restaurant meals, where multiple people get sick. Such events may account for 80 percent of all transmissions, research suggests. (Read this Times Op-Ed for more.)

 

I recognize that this is a somewhat dangerous message. Transmission rates in the U.S. are higher than they need to be, and they have begun rising again in parts of the South and West. In Arizona, where the governor has played down the virus and hospitals are filling up, the situation looks especially bad. But many other places are showing what a responsible and effective reopening looks like.

 

One crucial caveat is that the virus will outlast the summer — everywhere. During the 1918-19 flu, transmission rates fell in the warmer months, only to soar again in the fall. “People thought it was over,” as Apoorva Mandavilli, a science reporter at The Times, said, “and stopped taking precautions.”

 

Where the news is worse: A few big countries where cases are still rising — India, Mexico, Russia, Iran and Pakistan — are nevertheless ending their lockdowns, citing economic reasons."

[RealAvalon]

I have to hand it to the New York Times. They seem to be the most objective in their reporting. This was in their Thursday morning briefing, which was sent to my e-mail box:

"We journalists don’t always pay enough attention to good news. So I want to highlight some this morning: Across much of the United States and Europe, the coronavirus has been spreading less rapidly than many people feared.

 

Yes, the caseload is growing in some places, and they’re rightly getting a lot of attention. But the full story is more complex. Over the past six weeks — as communities have started to reopen, Americans have flocked to beaches and lakes and European schools have reopened — the number of new cases has continued falling in many places.

 

Across the Northeast and Midwest of the U.S., they’re down more than 50 percent, and often much more, since May 1. Nationwide, weekly deaths have fallen for six weeks in a row. And Europe “seems to have turned a corner,” Caitlin Rivers of Johns Hopkins University says.

 

How could this be?

 

I put that question to public health experts, and they gave two main answers. One, the virus spreads much less easily outdoors than indoors. “Summer — being outside, warmer weather, humidity — seems to help, and we may have underestimated how much it’s helped,” Ashish Jha, the incoming dean of Brown University School of Public Health, told me.

 

Two, many people are taking more precautions than they were in February and March. They’re wearing masks, remaining six feet apart and being careful about what they touch. “Even absent top-down health interventions” — like lockdowns — “people want to keep themselves safe,” Rivers said.

 

The combination appears to have eliminated most “superspreader events,” like parties, concerts and restaurant meals, where multiple people get sick. Such events may account for 80 percent of all transmissions, research suggests. (Read this Times Op-Ed for more.)

 

I recognize that this is a somewhat dangerous message. Transmission rates in the U.S. are higher than they need to be, and they have begun rising again in parts of the South and West. In Arizona, where the governor has played down the virus and hospitals are filling up, the situation looks especially bad. But many other places are showing what a responsible and effective reopening looks like.

 

One crucial caveat is that the virus will outlast the summer — everywhere. During the 1918-19 flu, transmission rates fell in the warmer months, only to soar again in the fall. “People thought it was over,” as Apoorva Mandavilli, a science reporter at The Times, said, “and stopped taking precautions.”

 

Where the news is worse: A few big countries where cases are still rising — India, Mexico, Russia, Iran and Pakistan — are nevertheless ending their lockdowns, citing economic reasons."

Not a lot of that is new information. More a summary of what's been reported from many different media sources over the last four weeks or so.

 

The worst areas are getting it under some control, while there are new spikes in other areas. The elimination of "super spreader events" was part of the restrictions put in place since mid-March.

 

From various media sources it does seem like, in hindsight, the best strategy is to have an immediate lockdown (in the USA that would have been in February, when China and Europe were already demonstrating what would happen) to prevent the community spread, and then the gradual opening could happen much more quickly. The delayed opening currently, is the result of completely botched planning and coordination by your federal government.

 

If spread is slower during warm weather, when people are more outside, that doesn't explain the new spikes in the South and the Southwest.

[+ Charlie]

Not a lot of that is new information. More a summary of what's been reported from many different media sources over the last four weeks or so.

 

The worst areas are getting it under some control, while there are new spikes in other areas. The elimination of "super spreader events" was part of the restrictions put in place since mid-March.

 

From various media sources it does seem like, in hindsight, the best strategy is to have an immediate lockdown (in the USA that would have been in February, when China and Europe were already demonstrating what would happen) to prevent the community spread, and then the gradual opening could happen much more quickly. The delayed opening currently, is the result of completely botched planning and coordination by your federal government.

 

If spread is slower during warm weather, when people are more outside, that doesn't explain the new spikes in the South and the Southwest.

It has turned unusually hot early in parts of the south and southwest, which means that people who were outside in April and May could be retreating back into air conditioned insides.

[Populist Fury]

I put that question to public health experts, and they gave two main answers. One, the virus spreads much less easily outdoors than indoors. “Summer — being outside, warmer weather, humidity — seems to help, and we may have underestimated how much it’s helped,” Ashish Jha, the incoming dean of Brown University School of Public Health, told me.

 

 

Those of us following international scientific studies (ignoring the mass hysteria on TV) have been saying that for months about weather & humidity levels playing a major role. That's why closing down beaches, parks, & other outdoor venues was always an unnecessary/hysterical move by our government.

[+ purplekow]

Those of us following international scientific studies (ignoring the mass hysteria on TV) have been saying that for months about weather & humidity levels playing a major role. That's why closing down beaches, parks, & other outdoor venues was always an unnecessary/hysterical move by our government.

Except that in Florida when the beaches were open for spring break, they followed the cell phones students on one beach and found spikes in cases in most places that those students went back to. There were dozens of beaches open and all you need is one case, like in New Rochelle, to create a spike. Or have you forgotten, in November there were a few cases in China and now eight months later from those few, really from that one, all these that have followed. What do you not understand about that?

Edited June 13, 2020 by purplekow

[MikeBiDude]

Except that in Florida when the beaches were open for spring break, they followed their cell phones and found spikes in cases in most places that those students went back to. All you need is one case, like in New Rochelle, to create a spike.

That video showing the cell phone tracking was chilling for me...and led me to be very strict about self isolation and preaching it.

[+ purplekow]

I really do not understand deniers. Say flat out you do not care is thousands of people die as long as you are not one of them and your IRA looks good and move on. The rhetoric that is put out by them is repetitive, inaccurate and self serving

[MrMattBig]

Those of us following international scientific studies (ignoring the mass hysteria on TV) have been saying that for months about weather & humidity levels playing a major role. That's why closing down beaches, parks, & other outdoor venues was always an unnecessary/hysterical move by our government.

Nothing is ever so clear cut. Outside can possibly and most likely be less of a risk, still depending on spacing. What about public restroom use, handrail use for stairs, promoting carefree behavior to share/trade beverages, supplies, etc.

[RealAvalon]

I really do not understand deniers. Say flat out you do not care is thousands of people die as long as you are not one of them and your IRA looks good and move on. The rhetoric that is put out by them is repetitive, inaccurate and self serving

It's also illogical. Or perhaps, being generous, very inconsistent with the logic.

[RealAvalon]

Nothing is ever so clear cut. Outside can possibly and most likely be less of a risk, still depending on spacing. What about public restroom use, handrail use for stairs, promoting carefree behavior to share/trade beverages, supplies, etc.

The virus spreading less outdoors isn't new information, it's been talked about on here for months by lots of different people @Corporate Shill.

 

Even in the midst of a complete shut down, our Provincial Medical Health Officer was telling people daily to go outside (exercise is good for your body and mind whatever the circumstances) - and while you are doing that, maintain physical distancing, wear a mask, wash your hands and don't touch your face. We've had one death over the last week, with a population of 5.1 million. Quick immediate lock down, and a monitored staged reopening. Schools, personal services, restaurants, offices are re-opened, with logical public health standards that need to be met in this re-opening.

 

It is possible for most people to do two things at once, caring about yourself and caring about other people at the same time. I think that's basic human nature.

Edited June 13, 2020 by RealAvalon

[MrMattBig]

Nothing is ever so clear cut. Outside can possibly and most likely be less of a risk, still depending on spacing. What about public restroom use, handrail use for stairs, promoting carefree behavior to share/trade beverages, supplies, etc.

It's also illogical. Or perhaps, being generous, very inconsistent with the logic.

If benign enough without bias, to my point about conditions and situations related to and around outdoor public venues, I think people are fine with, and unfortunately only thinking if A-B, B-C, then A-C, instead of the possibility and reality of an entire alphabet of possibilities and causes and effects.

 

However I do think a wide variety of people choose purposefully to only look at things only through their biased view.

[+ stevenkesslar]

Powell's pessimism about recovery is a 'recipe for profit taking:' Liz Ann Sonders

 

I thought that was an interesting article in terms of the point I've been hammering: if you don't want the virus to kill small businesses, you need to stop the virus from killing people. And if all you care about is whether the virus kills people, good for you. Because by stopping it from killing people, you are also stopping it from killing small businesses.

 

First, let's dismiss one thing, which that article mentions. On any given day, much of what happens in the US stock market is noise and speculation. I would never argue that the only way or the best way to understand the real US economy is to look at the stock market. I bring it up here because the people who do make all the points about so-called "wealth v. health" tend to be people that have money in the stock market, and think it matters.

 

So there are two points that Sonders makes that I think are broadly shared by American economists, and the American people.

 

First, a broad and deep second wave of infection will screw everything up. The fact that important people have to speak out, as recently as today, to dismiss or deny this concern proves only one thing. That the concern is deep, and real.

 

Second, this idea of a broad and quick recovery relies on a lot of simplistic thinking. It doesn't factor in lots of "secondary order economic effects", to quote Sonders. How many restaurants can even break even at 75 % of capacity? As she states, whatever government does or doesn't tell us we can do is different than what consumers or businesses will do to protect themselves. Even if we don't have an out of control second wave, there's no evidence that a huge chunk of the consumer economy is anywhere near jumping back in.

 

Jeffery Sachs was on Morning Joe this AM, and he just reinforced all this thinking. Anyone who is expecting a V-Shaped recovery is just dreaming, unless and until we get the virus under control, he thinks.

 

There's a few other points he made, about how COVID-19 has simply accelerated trends that were proceeding at warp speed anyway.

 

First, the digitalization of the US economy, and jobs. This is great news for Amazon. But millions of the jobs we lost are likely never coming back, even under the best case scenario. Sachs didn't say it. But anyone who believes in "creative destruction" might argue that's a good thing. What Sachs did say is we don't have a plan. We certainly don't have a government plan. And, again, for those who see less government as a plus, we also won't have a private sector plan. Corporations can't plan well when they have a huge amount of uncertainty. Right now uncertainty is probably at a century-long high.

 

Second, he talked about how Asia was gradually taking more of an economic leadership role, anyway. And COVID-19 accelerates it.

 

He made a comment that surprised me, but that is correct. He kept saying Asia has basically contained the virus, whereas Europe has been much harder hit and has more problems. I've trained my mind to not even mention China, and downplay Japan or South Korea, since deniers will say, "Oh, that's China. They lie. That's an island. That's ........... whatever." It seems more relevant to mention that every country in Europe, except Sweden, has caseloads down maybe 95 %. And some of them are publicly talking about putting the virus out of business, even without a vaccine.

 

That's all true. But on reflection, Sachs is right. First, Asia was in better shape than Europe before COVID-19, anyway. A lot of Europe was on the verge of recession. Second, they were harder hit. Of the 10 countries with the most infections, none are what Americans tend to think of as "Asian". Russia is # 3 and India is # 4. To Sachs' point, 4 of the top 10 are countries we think of as "Europe": Spain, Italy, Germany and the UK. The "Asian" country with the most cumulative infections is China, # 18, which has 96 % fewer cases than the US. If that means the US is a leader, it's not the kind of leadership we want.

 

I mostly agree with what @purplekow said above about "deniers" who are "inaccurate, repetitive, and self serving."

 

The only question I would add is this: how "self serving" is denial, or even wishful thinking? My sense is that there is a lot of that going on here.

 

By the way, I'm not suggesting the sky is falling. I agree with the middle of the road public health experts, who are saying that a spike in infections was to be expected, and prepared for - with testing, tracing, and treating. I'll keep repeating that that was in fact part of the goal of the lockdown: to stop its exponential growth, and create the infrastructure to contain the virus and beat it back gradually. I'm still hopeful that, like Asia and Europe, we can reopen schools this Fall.

 

If there is a plan to make certain that happens, to the best of our ability, I am completely missing it. It sounds more like we are simply gambling, and wishfully thinking that the bet will work out well for us. The numbers very much suggest we are leaving this to a roll of the dice.

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[former lurker]

Powell's pessimism about recovery is a 'recipe for profit taking:' Liz Ann Sonders

 

I thought that was an interesting article in terms of the point I've been hammering: if you don't want the virus to kill small businesses, you need to stop the virus from killing people. And if all you care about is whether the virus kills people, good for you. Because by stopping it from killing people, you are also stopping it from killing small businesses.

 

First, let's dismiss one thing, which that article mentions. On any given day, much of what happens in the US stock market is noise and speculation. I would never argue that the only way or the best way to understand the real US economy is to look at the stock market. I bring it up here because the people who do make all the points about so-called "wealth v. health" tend to be people that have money in the stock market, and think it matters.

 

So there are two points that Sonders makes that I think are broadly shared by American economists, and the American people.

 

First, a broad and deep second wave of infection will screw everything up. The fact that important people have to speak out, as recently as today, to dismiss or deny this concern proves only one thing. That the concern is deep, and real.

 

Second, this idea of a broad and quick recovery relies on a lot of simplistic thinking. It doesn't factor in lots of "secondary order economic effects", to quote Sonders. How many restaurants can even break even at 75 % of capacity? As she states, whatever government does or doesn't tell us we can do is different than what consumers or businesses will do to protect themselves. Even if we don't have an out of control second wave, there's no evidence that a huge chunk of the consumer economy is anywhere near jumping back in.

 

Jeffery Sachs was on Morning Joe this AM, and he just reinforced all this thinking. Anyone who is expecting a V-Shaped recovery is just dreaming, unless and until we get the virus under control, he thinks.

 

There's a few other points he made, about how COVID-19 has simply accelerated trends that were proceeding at warp speed anyway.

 

First, the digitalization of the US economy, and jobs. This is great news for Amazon. But millions of the jobs we lost are likely never coming back, even under the best case scenario. Sachs didn't say it. But anyone who believes in "creative destruction" might argue that's a good thing. What Sachs did say is we don't have a plan. We certainly don't have a government plan. And, again, for those who see less government as a plus, we also won't have a private sector plan. Corporations can't plan well when they have a huge amount of uncertainty. Right now uncertainty is probably at a century-long high.

 

Second, he talked about how Asia was gradually taking more of an economic leadership role, anyway. And COVID-19 accelerates it.

 

He made a comment that surprised me, but that is correct. He kept saying Asia has basically contained the virus, whereas Europe has been much harder hit and has more problems. I've trained my mind to not even mention China, and downplay Japan or South Korea, since deniers will say, "Oh, that's China. They lie. That's an island. That's ........... whatever." It seems more relevant to mention that every country in Europe, except Sweden, has caseloads down maybe 95 %. And some of them are publicly talking about putting the virus out of business, even without a vaccine.

 

That's all true. But on reflection, Sachs is right. First, Asia was in better shape than Europe before COVID-19, anyway. A lot of Europe was on the verge of recession. Second, they were harder hit. Of the 10 countries with the most infections, none are what Americans tend to think of as "Asian". Russia is # 3 and India is # 4. To Sachs' point, 4 of the top 10 are countries we think of as "Europe": Spain, Italy, Germany and the UK. The "Asian" country with the most cumulative infections is China, # 18, which has 96 % fewer cases than the US. If that means the US is a leader, it's not the kind of leadership we want.

 

I mostly agree with what @purplekow said above about "deniers" who are "inaccurate, repetitive, and self serving."

 

The only question I would add is this: how "self serving" is denial, or even wishful thinking? My sense is that there is a lot of that going on here.

 

By the way, I'm not suggesting the sky is falling. I agree with the middle of the road public health experts, who are saying that a spike in infections was to be expected, and prepared for - with testing, tracing, and treating. I'll keep repeating that that was in fact part of the goal of the lockdown: to stop its exponential growth, and create the infrastructure to contain the virus and beat it back gradually. I'm still hopeful that, like Asia and Europe, we can reopen schools this Fall.

 

If there is a plan to make certain that happens, to the best of our ability, I am completely missing it. It sounds more like we are simply gambling, and wishfully thinking that the bet will work out well for us. The numbers very much suggest we are leaving this to a roll of the dice.

 

 

And, consistent with this analysis, we're witnessing a spike in new cases in Florida, North Carolina and elsewhere. Here in Massachusetts, the pace of new cases has leveled off, but remain persistent rather than significantly declining. It's particularly harsh in several of the crowded poorer cities just outside of Boston. Places like Lynn, Chelsea, Revere, etc., are densely populated, have large immigrant populations living in cramped quarters in older housing stock with multiple families in each of three apartments in three-family houses, and the houses closely bunched. All of these places share another characteristic that promotes spread of the virus -- they have older common ventilation systems so the virus passes through the ducts from one residence to the next.

 

It's having a big effect on the housing market here, too. A lot of young professionals are looking to move out of the city to the burbs in order to live with more space between homes and in single family buildings. Sellers are concerned about moving from single family settings to condos and apartments.

[+ stevenkesslar]

- they have older common ventilation systems so the virus passes through the ducts from one residence to the next.

 

That's a new one. Is there any proof of that?

 

Three things come to mind. 1) The restaurant in China where people get infected, because of air flow. But only at the adjacent tables next to where the carrier sat. There was no impact on other tables in the same physical space of a large dining room. 2) The call center in South Korea where many people on one floor sitting close together got infected. The office space was big, but there was lots of person on person closeness and interaction. 3) The bus in China where people sat for hours on a long distance trip. No one wearing a mask was infected. A ahndful with masks did, and that was also blamed on air flow in the bus, which is of course a relatively small and open space.

 

I've not heard that you could get this from breathing your neighbor's air, as in the condo or apartment next door. Logically, it undercuts the whole idea of six feet of social distancing and masks. If we can get this from somebody 50 feet away, in the unit next door, that's a whole different ball game.

 

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

 

Coronavirus: Can it spread through air conditioning?

 

So far, the answer seems to be NO.

 

I know on the Princess ship they found RNA of the virus weeks later. That is the scary thing that still gets mentioned all the time, about how long the virus lasts. But there is no evidence that RNA residue found weeks later was itself capable of infecting people. My impression is the reason it was all over the ship is that people who were infected spread it everywhere. As opposed to it spread through the air ducts, like The Mist.

 

Am I missing something?

[RealAvalon]

That's a new one. Is there any proof of that?

 

Three things come to mind. 1) The restaurant in China where people get infected, because of air flow. But only at the adjacent tables next to where the carrier sat. There was no impact on other tables in the same physical space of a large dining room. 2) The call center in South Korea where many people on one floor sitting close together got infected. The office space was big, but there was lots of person on person closeness and interaction. 3) The bus in China where people sat for hours on a long distance trip. No one wearing a mask was infected. A ahndful with masks did, and that was also blamed on air flow in the bus, which is of course a relatively small and open space.

 

Legionnaires disease; remember that one? It was traced back to the AC tank on the roof and the Legionnaires that were infected had all been outside the hotel near the outflow valve for the tank.

[former lurker]

That's a new one. Is there any proof of that?

 

Three things come to mind. 1) The restaurant in China where people get infected, because of air flow. But only at the adjacent tables next to where the carrier sat. There was no impact on other tables in the same physical space of a large dining room. 2) The call center in South Korea where many people on one floor sitting close together got infected. The office space was big, but there was lots of person on person closeness and interaction. 3) The bus in China where people sat for hours on a long distance trip. No one wearing a mask was infected. A ahndful with masks did, and that was also blamed on air flow in the bus, which is of course a relatively small and open space.

 

I've not heard that you could get this from breathing your neighbor's air, as in the condo or apartment next door. Logically, it undercuts the whole idea of six feet of social distancing and masks. If we can get this from somebody 50 feet away, in the unit next door, that's a whole different ball game.

 

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

 

Coronavirus: Can it spread through air conditioning?

 

So far, the answer seems to be NO.

 

I know on the Princess ship they found RNA of the virus weeks later. That is the scary thing that still gets mentioned all the time, about how long the virus lasts. But there is no evidence that RNA residue found weeks later was itself capable of infecting people. My impression is the reason it was all over the ship is that people who were infected spread it everywhere. As opposed to it spread through the air ducts, like The Mist.

 

Am I missing something?

 

It's one factor in some places with older ventilation systems. In most condo/apartment set ups, you're not breathing air common from your neighbor's apartment. There's separate ducts, filters, etc. But some of the older housing in the places I'm discussing above are quite old, and haven't been updated. They're in depressed areas, and haven't been "renewed" and upgraded. I haven't seen any detailed studies, but I've heard it discussed as a factor on local news.

 

A quick point and counterpoint on that theory. First, there is some reason to believe common ventilation has an effect. The propagation of the virus in the Boston area is widely thought to have resulted from a scientific convention at the South Port convention center, in part because people were in close proximity and in part because the same air was re-circulating. Second, the housing stock I'm describing is overcrowded, so there's not only the common ventilation issue, but people coming in close contact in narrow hallways on a regular basis.

 

The common ventilation issue is a theory, and one that we probably can't rule in or out at this point.

 

And, I should note the ventilation issue isn't necessarily about how long the virus persists in ducts and remains transmissible. The air is circulating constantly.

[+ stevenkesslar]

Legionnaires disease; remember that one? It was traced back to the AC tank on the roof and the Legionnaires that were infected had all been outside the hotel near the outflow valve for the tank.

 

And one of those articles I posted mentions that SARS is believed to have been transmitted that way - literally from one housing unit to another in multi-family structures.

Studies conducted after the SARS outbreak in 2003 suggest that some infections occurred in high-rise buildings as contaminated air rose through the buildings’ airshafts into different apartments. COVID-19 is from the same family as SARS, known as coronaviruses, and the two share many similarities.

 

“So far, we have not seen any evidence that the virus that causes COVID-19 can be spread through air conditioning systems. The virus is spread through droplets that can be suspended in air for short periods of time before settling on surfaces,” said Dr. Maher Balkis, associate staff physician of infectious diseases at Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi.

 

With COVID-19, it's just a theory at this point, I think. On the list of risk factors, it's way down there.

 

If we actually had contact tracing up and running, we'd probably learn quickly. If someone in a dense apartment building tested positive, in theory you could test everyone on their floor. If you did that 20 times and no one else tested positive, you can pretty much rule that theory out.

 

It is implicit, but let's spell it out. A lot of what we know about transmission - like that restaurant and bus trip in China, and churches and call centers in South Korea - is thanks to good contact tracing by other countries. Why we are not all over contact tracing as a massive national priority - if only to save small businesses - is beyond comprehension to me.

[RealAvalon]

And one of those articles I posted mentions that SARS is believed to have been transmitted that way - literally from one housing unit to another in multi-family structures.

 

 

With COVID-19, it's just a theory at this point, I think. On the list of risk factors, it's way down there.

 

If we actually had contact tracing up and running, we'd probably learn quickly. If someone in a dense apartment building tested positive, in theory you could test everyone on their floor. If you did that 20 times any no one else tested positive, you can pretty much rule that theory out.

 

It is implicit, but let's spell it out. A lot of what we know about transmission - like that restaurant and bus trip in China, and churches and call centers in South Korea - is thanks to good contact tracing by other countries. Why we are not all over contact tracing as a massive national priority - if only to save small businesses - is beyond comprehension to me.

Our Centre for Disease control did a genomic analysis of the various strains of the virus found in people that tested positive. From the slight mutations in the viral strains they were able to determine how much of the viral spread was from Asian, European or North American sources/contacts. (Most of the viral spread came from Europe and the East Coast, probably from an international dental convention, with thousands of people, in early March.)

 

It's amazing the information that could be available, which opens the door for a wide-range of public health policy to contain the spread, and minimize economic impacts. If a jurisdiction will act on the science.

[Guest]

Again, we have to look beyond media hysteria. The media love to focus on what keeps things in the headlines. Arizona has had the worst increase of "cases" of all the 50 states. But we have to bear in mind that "cases" just means people who've tested positive, not those seriously ill, and not the death rate. If they've increase testing 5-fold and have a 50% increase in "cases," is that a cause for panic in the streets? On the news today, they discussed the graduation at the military academy at West Point. 20 cadets tested positive for active Covid-19. Not a single one even symptomatic, let alone seriously ill. And that doesn't include any cadet that has gotten infected and recovered (they didn't test for antibodies).

If being outdoors in crowded situations is dangerous, we're going to find out really soon, because there have been massive numbers of enormous demonstrations on the George Floyd matter over the last 2 weeks (I was in a smaller one myself, but cautiously kept my distance). If there isn't an exponential increase in hospitalizations quite soon, we can get over the fear of massive outdoor transmissions. Of course, it's quite possible that the shit is really going to hit the fan in the Fall. Who knows. My sense is that we really need to concentrate on protecting seniors and other vulnerable populations. If I were the one making decisions, anyone working in a nursing home, assisted-living facility, etc., would either have to demonstrate antibodies to Covid-19 or be tested daily before being allowed into work.

[+ stevenkesslar]

My sense is that we really need to concentrate on protecting seniors and other vulnerable populations. If I were the one making decisions, anyone working in a nursing home, assisted-living facility, etc., would either have to demonstrate antibodies to Covid-19 or be tested daily before being allowed into work.

 

I don't disagree with your point. We should of course be most concerned about seniors, and nursing homes.

 

I wouldn't disagree with a fire fighter saying that the priority in fighting a wildfire is to save human lives and homes. That said, the best thing is to either prevent the wildfire, or put it out.

 

Some of the public statements being made about the virus just don't sound factually correct. I heard a statement today that nationally the number of cases is only growing by one percent. Actually, there were 27,211 cases on July 12th. The day before, there were 23,300 cases. Three days before there were 19,506 cases. The day in June that was the highest other June 12th was June 5th, when there were 25,393 cases. So no matter how you count it, that's not a one percent increase.

 

Again, I'm not ready to say that the sky is falling. But when the message I hear is that this is less than a one percent increase, and this is just an isolated local problem, that's just not factually correct. Whatever the intent, the effect is to make it seem like we don't really know what is going on. So of course we don't have a clear strategy, either, other than to think wishfully.

 

The same goes for nursing homes.

 

Here's a math question. Which number is higher: 1) 50 % of 30,824; or 2) 80 % of 8,049?

 

The second number is the number of deaths in Canada, where about 80 % of the deaths have been seniors in nursing homes. The first is the number of deaths in New York, and the ballpark percentage of those deaths that took place in nursing homes.

 

If there's a place that sounds like it allowed nursing homes to become a death trap for seniors, it's Canada. I mean that in the sense that 80 % sounds high. And the Canadian military, who was called in to help due to a lack of adequate staffing, did blast some of those nursing homes. I'm using New York as an example because several people here have blasted New York for policies that they think contributed to the high number of senior citizens deaths.

 

As it turns out, New York had over 7 times the number of deaths relative to population (1,584 per million) than Canada (213 per million). So while 80 % may sound bad (as @RealAvalon keeps saying, that's mostly in two provinces), Canada actually did a much better job of minimizing the number of dead seniors. They did it simply by not letting the virus get anywhere close to them. Like wildfires, once it gets close it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to contain. Sweden is now having loud public debates about their miscalculations in this regard.

 

The evidence is completely clear. The biggest thing that contributes to seniors dying is the spread of the disease, period. If you have over 400,000 people infected in New York, you're going to end up with way more dead seniors than if you have 100,000 people infected in Canada. That's the way the math works in every country, every time. It really is the same principle as wildfires. In the middle of the worst wildfire ever, of course it makes sense to talk about which homes can be saved, and how you get everybody out alive. But it makes even more sense to talk about putting the wildfire out.

 

Nobody actually says that 100,000 dead seniors are less important than the US economy. But you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that some of the thinking goes that way. That we have to accept certain costs for the greater good of the US economy.

 

Given that, I'd rather talk about how many dead small businesses are acceptable. 10,000? 100,000? How much of the US economy are we willing to kill? Especially the small business part people identify with so much? Because all the evidence is that while Disney and GM and United Airlines may have a bad year, they will likely survive. Many small businesses won't. Because consumers won't patronize them.

 

All it took was a dozen or so dead seniors in one nursing home outside Seattle to shut down much of the Seattle consumer economy. By early March some Seattle high end restaurants were saying 90 % of their business was just gone. So all the evidence suggests that a virus that kills a lot of seniors is also going to be very effective at killing a lot of small businesses.

 

What I find even more mind boggling is that when you get off the 30,000 foot level, and bring it to ground level, the specific pragmatic steps you need to keep seniors and small businesses from dying are the same. Testing and tracing are at the top of the list.

 

Hopefully, people now know enough that anyone with flu symptoms who works in a nursing home will call in sick. Hopefully, anyone who owns a hair salon or a cafe will do the same. But that does nothing for the 1 in 3 or maybe even 1 in 2 who have no symptoms - yet, or ever. So the most likely way to stop an employee at a nursing home from unintentionally killing seniors is to test her. Even better, the best step would be to trace her from the person that infected her, so that before she even gets a test she stays home from work. (Something like half of all people in Iceland who tested positive where already in isolation by the time they were tested, due to contact tracing.)

 

The exact same steps are what we now know, from dozens of countries of all sizes, ranging from Iceland to China, will help small businesses keep their workplaces safe. How do we know this will work in America? Talk to anyone who owns a meat packing plant in North Dakota, or South Dakota, or Texas. They'll tell you why they had to shut down. And what they had to do to safely reopen - test, and trace. At the ground level, there is not a huge difference between the specific practices that keep meat packing plants open, and that keep nursing homes from turning into morgues.

 

I'm just going to repeat myself. I'm not saying the sky is falling. But some of what I hear sounds like wishful thinking. And some just sounds like denial. When I hear that the number of cases is only growing one percent, which I heard on the news today, it is just wrong. It doesn't increase my confidence. It just creates confusion, which undermines consumer confidence.

Edited June 13, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[+ bigjoey]

Again, we have to look beyond media hysteria. The media love to focus on what keeps things in the headlines. Arizona has had the worst increase of "cases" of all the 50 states. But we have to bear in mind that "cases" just means people who've tested positive, not those seriously ill, and not the death rate. If they've increase testing 5-fold and have a 50% increase in "cases," is that a cause for panic in the streets? On the news today, they discussed the graduation at the military academy at West Point. 20 cadets tested positive for active Covid-19. Not a single one even symptomatic, let alone seriously ill. And that doesn't include any cadet that has gotten infected and recovered (they didn't test for antibodies).

If being outdoors in crowded situations is dangerous, we're going to find out really soon, because there have been massive numbers of enormous demonstrations on the George Floyd matter over the last 2 weeks (I was in a smaller one myself, but cautiously kept my distance). If there isn't an exponential increase in hospitalizations quite soon, we can get over the fear of massive outdoor transmissions. Of course, it's quite possible that the shit is really going to hit the fan in the Fall. Who knows. My sense is that we really need to concentrate on protecting seniors and other vulnerable populations. If I were the one making decisions, anyone working in a nursing home, assisted-living facility, etc., would either have to demonstrate antibodies to Covid-19 or be tested daily before being allowed into work.

 

At the senior facility where I volunteer, every employee is tested every morning before being allowed to work. So far, not one resident has been infected with Covid19.

 

Even more surprising to me was that construction workers who are working on a wing of the building and not entering the main building where residents are located are tested before starting. The constitution area has been kept completely separated and yet they are doing that testing. (I am working on fundraising for the renovation and wanted to take a donor through the almost finished construction before any residents or staff was brought back in and the wing was connected back to the main building. I was told I could not do that. I have put in a request again but said we would submit ourselves to the same daily testing as the construction workers.)

 

I had dinner (outside on a home patio with proper distancing) with a donor to the project. I was told their family foundation funded a full time person dedicated to infectious disease control at another senior facility two years ago! That facility has had no Covid19 cases. As I have pointed out, infections normally kill hundreds of thousands of seniors a year in nursing homes. The places that have been successful today with Covid19 have been successful for years in fighting infections. This is not a new situation. It puzzles me how hundreds of thousands of seniors can die each year if infections without the hysterical headlines we see today; that should be a big story.

 

Yes, it would be easier if the virus was not in the general population. Yes, a lot of things in life would be better if one thing or another happened but that is not our reality. The reality is that we know what best practices are for fighting infections in nursing homes but many places ignore them.

[Guest]

...And what they had to do to safely reopen - test, and trace. At the ground level, there is not a huge difference between the specific practices that keep meat packing plants open, and that keep nursing homes from turning into morgues.

 

I'm just going to repeat myself. I'm not saying the sky is falling. But some of what I hear sounds like wishful thinking. And some just sounds like denial. When I hear that the number of cases is only growing one percent, which I heard on the news today, it is just wrong. It doesn't increase my confidence. It just creates confusion, which undermines consumer confidence.

.....

Yes, it would be easier if the virus was not in the general population. Yes, a lot of things in life would be better if one thing or another happened but that is not our reality. The reality is that we know what best practices are for fighting infections in nursing homes but many places ignore them.

I know you're just going to repeat yourself, SK, as you have done verbosely for months now. Don't looks at the facts. Just repeat yourself regardless of what the latest data show. You hear factual data on the news, and it just confuses you because it doesn't fit in with your tightly-held but disproved suppositions. Just put your hands over your ears and say "La-la-la, I don't want to hear it, la-la-la".

While your mantra of "Test, trace,..." (at least you stopped saying "treat", presumably because you've come to accept that there is no effective treatment, at least when it comes to slowing spread) can work in isolated countries with very low burdens of infection, it obviously can't happen in places like the US, Europe, and China. The fact of the matter is that it's probably impossible to do that with an illness that we now know is asymptomatic in most people who contract it (and that can be spread, apparently, by asymptomatic carriers). There are probably millions of Americans unknowingly walking around with this.

Millions are being left impoverished, jobless, and homeless by strict lockdowns. Although the original actions were the wise thing to do at the time, we now know that it's not necessary at this time. We now know that the virus thrives in closed, indoor environments such as meat packing plants, airplanes, etc.. If there isn't a massive increase in illness over the next several days, we'll know that the virus is currently doing poorly in outdoor environments, even with tens of thousands of people gathered together (at least in the Summer).

This does not mean business as usual. It does mean we should adapt and target our actions to the new knowledge as it comes in. As @bigjoey said, it is feasible and imperative to make nursing homes and senior care facilities much safer. Protecting our seniors and vulnerable should be the key to keeping down hospitalizations and deaths.

As a physician, I use science to help guide my recommendations. As new data becomes available, I change my recommendations accordingly. I recommend post-menopausal estrogen a lot less than I used to, along with, for example, daily aspirin, because of new studies and data which dispelled previously-held beliefs. It is not a weakness to admit that your prior suppositions were wrong. On the contrary, it shows strength, maturity, and wisdom. I'm proud to be able to say "You know, I used to believe this, but I have acquired new knowledge which has made me look at things another way."

[former lurker]

I know you're just going to repeat yourself, SK, as you have done verbosely for months now. Don't looks at the facts. Just repeat yourself regardless of what the latest data show. You hear factual data on the news, and it just confuses you because it doesn't fit in with your tightly-held but disproved suppositions. Just put your hands over your ears and say "La-la-la, I don't want to hear it, la-la-la".

While your mantra of "Test, trace,..." (at least you stopped saying "treat", presumably because you've come to accept that there is no effective treatment, at least when it comes to slowing spread) can work in isolated countries with very low burdens of infection, it obviously can't happen in places like the US, Europe, and China. The fact of the matter is that it's probably impossible to do that with an illness that we now know is asymptomatic in most people who contract it (and that can be spread, apparently, by asymptomatic carriers). There are probably millions of Americans unknowingly walking around with this.

Millions are being left impoverished, jobless, and homeless by strict lockdowns. Although the original actions were the wise thing to do at the time, we now know that it's not necessary at this time. We now know that the virus thrives in closed, indoor environments such as meat packing plants, airplanes, etc.. If there isn't a massive increase in illness over the next several days, we'll know that the virus is currently doing poorly in outdoor environments, even with tens of thousands of people gathered together (at least in the Summer).

This does not mean business as usual. It does mean we should adapt and target our actions to the new knowledge as it comes in. As @bigjoey said, it is feasible and imperative to make nursing homes and senior care facilities much safer. Protecting our seniors and vulnerable should be the key to keeping down hospitalizations and deaths.

As a physician, I use science to help guide my recommendations. As new data becomes available, I change my recommendations accordingly. I recommend post-menopausal estrogen a lot less than I used to, along with, for example, daily aspirin, because of new studies and data which dispelled previously-held beliefs. It is not a weakness to admit that your prior suppositions were wrong. On the contrary, it shows strength, maturity, and wisdom. I'm proud to be able to say "You know, I used to believe this, but I have acquired new knowledge which has made me look at things another way."

 

And what, pray tell, is novel about your "data" and reasoning? It's the same mantra that the Trump and his acolytes in right wing media and blogs have been arguing since the pandemic hit the U.S. It boils down to arguing that the costs to the economy outweigh the costs from the disease. Steven, for his part, consistently updates with new data and findings. You stumble across a derivative rehash of the same counterposition and post it, and reiterate (that is, repeat) your previous position.