Coronavirus Numbers

[BgMstr4u]

From The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html

 

At the end of the story, they say we just do not yet know for sure and why some places were hit and others spared comes down to “a roll of the dice.”

Thank you for this very helpful article.

[Guest]

... You didn't read The Hammer And The Dance, and you clearly won't. ...

these lock downs will lead to the worst possible outcome. Even though about 80 % or so of Americans seem to think that is not the case....

...

Tomas Pueyo, who predicted... over 10 million dead - was based on zero mitigation. ..

It's really not possible to have a sensible argument with someone who ignores known facts. When making a model, the model has to be based on certain assumptions. Pueyo wrote that article in early March, and information we've gleaned since then have proven, beyond any doubt, that these assumptions were incorrect. The only place where we have real, absolute, data on the actual prevalence of Covid-19 is New York, and that showed the case fatality rate to be 0.5%. This is a worst-case scenario, since that assumes, as I said previously, that (1) all strains of Covid-19 in the US are as deadly as the one in NYC (possible, but seems defy a certain amount of common sense), (2) Covid-19 will be as deadly in the warm months as the cold ones (I asked you in a prior post if you knew of any respiratory infection which is equally as deadly in warm months as in cold months, and you didn't respond, which leads me to guess that you either didn't read my response or the answer is no. Have you ever heard of someone dying from influenza in May to September? It probably happens, but is extremely rare), and (3) Antivirals will have no beneficial effect on case-mortality rates.

No serious health care leader believes, as you apparently seem to believe, that Covid-19 can be stopped in its tracks in the North America or Europe. Everyone talks instead about flattening the curve, which simply means not overwhelming the healthcare system and slowing the spread, NOT reducing the total number infected.

Not that we should be basing such important decisions on public opinion polls taken 2 weeks ago from people who largely have very limited knowledge of science and healthcare, but, for what it's worth, your statement that 80% want to stay the course is also factually incorrect:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-six-10-support-keeping-stay-home-restrictions-fight-coronavirus-n1187011

 

Even if it were correct, if 99% of people polled in Saudi Arabia believe that there is no God but Allah and Mohammed is his prophet, and you're not a Muslim, does that mean your religious beliefs are incorrect?

[samhexum]

Trump’s administration privately projects massive spike in coronavirus deaths amid his push for reopening

 

 

As President Trump pushes states to rev up their economies, his emergency officials are privately projecting that the U.S. coronavirus death toll will skyrocket over the next several weeks, reaching roughly 3,000 deaths per day by the end of the month.

 

A 19-page internal government document, compiled by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and first reported by The New York Times on Monday, projects that the daily U.S. death count will remain around the current level of 1,750 through May 15.

 

After that, the document, whose authenticity was confirmed by an administration official to the Daily News, projects a sharp spike bringing the daily death count to 3,000 by June 1. The document doesn’t project death tolls beyond June 1, but a graph included in the report points further upward.

 

In addition to the grim death projection, the intragovernment prediction suggests that the number of new COVID-19 infections per day will shoot up more than eightfold this month, reaching about 200,000 cases per day by the beginning of June, compared with the current level of 25,000.

 

 

A White House spokesman dismissed the data and said it had not been reviewed by Trump’s coronavirus task force.

 

“This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the coronavirus task force or gone through interagency vetting," the spokesman, Judd Deere, said Monday afternoon. “This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed.”

 

FEMA spokesmen did not immediately return requests for comment.

 

Despite the White House pushback, the alarming predictions signal that the government’s experts have a far grimmer view of the virus than Trump, who’s actively pushing for states to loosen social-distancing restrictions and reopen their economies.

 

In a Fox News-hosted town hall at the Lincoln Memorial on Sunday, Trump acknowledged that the U.S. death toll will likely reach 100,000.

 

Still, even as the horrific count approaches 70,000, Trump suggested states should start clawing back stay-at-home orders immediately. He also threw a bone to right-wing protesters.

 

“I think a lot of people want to go back. They just want to go back. You see it every day. You see demonstrations all over the country, and those are meaningful demonstrations,” Trump said.

 

Anti-social-distancing protesters in states like Michigan and Wisconsin have been seen toting Confederate flags and assault rifles during demonstrations outside their state capitols.

[+ tassojunior]

Newsom's closing of Orange County beaches just pushed people onto the sidewalk and bikepath by the beach. Evidently there's no mask requirement in public and this is worse than before.

 

[+ bigjoey]

Interesting numbers:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html

 

First, ALL 370 showed no symptoms! That means none knew they were infected. Think about that 17% of the people working in that factory are walking around infecting others with no knowledge of what they are doing.

 

Second, while it shows the importance of testing and tracing, there is no “treat” but only self-quarantine. The “test-trace-treat” mantra is really “test-trace-quarantine.” It does show the importance of continuing to pay the people while at home.

 

Third, it raises the question of why does the virus hit so differently. These workers are mostly young if they are line employees but there could be supervisors and others who are presumably older. But still we know that young people do get sick from the virus and some need hospitalization and some the ICU and some die. But I find this group interesting in that none of them are “sick” (at least yet). Will they ever get sick or is there something in their system that protects them?

 

Finally, how often should an employer test his/her employees. If it is a nursing home, would every shift need to be tested because the risk is so high? Would a meat packing plant need to test every few days? If things open up, before going into a crowded venue, or a cruise or an airplane flight would everyone need testing? These carriers with no symptoms are the wild card in trying to return to normal. In addition, logically there should be a large number of people who were sick with no symptoms but now over the virus and whose body should carry the antibodies to be immune; in two weeks, these 370 people will be added to the growing number of people who should be immune (we do not know for how long). We need to know the number of people who are immune in total; we could be working our way unknowingly toward herd immunity.

 

There is still much more to learn about the strange behavior of this virus.

Edited May 5, 2020 by bigjoey

[samhexum]

California to close all beaches after crowds ignore social distancing rules

Some 3,000 people held a raucus May Day demonstration at Huntington Beach Friday, protesting the closure of California beaches and the state’s stay-at-home mandate.

 

The protesters — many wearing no masks and some carrying surfboards and American flags — massed in throngs despite Gov. Gavin Newsom directing all state and local beaches to close Friday to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

And NOW a word from your President:

President Trump on Sunday sought to reassure Americans that it is safe for states to reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic, offering support to protesters who have railed against the lockdowns across the country.

“I really believe that you can go to parks, you can go to beaches . . . [if] you stay away a certain amount,” Trump said

Newsom's closing of Orange County beaches just pushed people onto the sidewalk and bikepath by the beach. Evidently there's no mask requirement in public and this is worse than before.

 

Miami Beach park closes after nearly 9,000 Covidiots violate face mask policy

 

A popular Miami Beach green space was reportedly closed Monday — five days after reopening — because nearly 9,000 people were caught violating the park’s mask policy.

 

South Pointe Park had initially opened back up Wednesday, along with other green spaces in Miami-Dade County, after being closed for over six weeks to help curb the spread of the coronavirus.

 

With the reopening, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez ordered parkgoers to wear facial coverings, a policy largely ignored by those at South Pointe Park.

 

From Wednesday to Sunday, park rangers issued 8,880 verbal warnings to people at South Pointe Park for going maskless, according to the Miami Herald, citing police.

 

The majority of those warnings — 5,261 — occurred over the weekend — even after the city closed the parking lot Sunday in an effort to control the crowds.

 

City Manager Jimmy Morales told the paper in a statement that other city parks reopened successfully, but South Pointe Park “is the most egregious exception.”

 

“We have had city staff in the park to encourage people to comply, but they were met with hostility and non-compliance,” he said.

 

“There is no way to effectively enforce social distancing when hundreds of individuals refuse to do so. The best way to protect our residents and first responders is to keep it closed until further notice.”

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by samhexum

[Guest]

Interesting numbers:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html

 

First, ALL 370 showed no symptoms! That means none knew they were infected. Think about that 17% of the people working in that factory are walking around infecting others with no knowledge of what they are doing.

....

There is still much more to learn about the strange behavior of this virus.

You can say that again. Every day we learn something, which offers a new opportunity to adjust our thinking on how best to confront this situation. For example, that article states "The state of Missouri has reported 8,386 cases and 352 deaths statewide as of Sunday night, according to the Health Department Website." 352/8386 would lead to a case fatality rate of about 0.4%, except most people who are asymptomatic aren't tested, and we now know that it's VERY common to be infected and asymptomatic. So that would lead one to infer a case fatality rate of under 0.4%, lower than NY's case fatality rate of 0.5%. More facts that (1) imply that the catastrophic scenarios some have suggested are unlikely, and (2) our efforts really need to be target to those at highest risk, especially the elderly, and chronically ill.

Given the added knowledge we've gained recently, and the availability of rapid testing, a wiser way to save lives is to carefully protect seniors and the chronically ill. Anyone working in a nursing home, assisted living facility, etc., should only be allowed to work if tested daily with negative results. There should be careful bubbles placed around those at risk, and their contacts carefully screened (until we have a vaccine). I know I haven't visited my octogenarian step-mother, and might not see her until there's a vaccine (she lives alone).

We still don't know for sure the degree to which infection provides protection against re-infection, which is another important key to the puzzle and to policy-making. In most infections, antibodies provide pretty good protection for at least one year (in many cases, such as measles, it's a lifetime), so that's likely, if not guaranteed. Among the tens of millions infected so far, I haven't heard of anyone infected twice, so that's a pretty promising sign. If it proves that antibodies provide at least temporary protection, those people could be recruited to assist the elderly safely.

[samhexum]

our efforts really need to be target to those at highest risk, especially the elderly, and chronically ill.

On the other hand... A happy # ... 104

 

This isn’t Ida Acconciamessa’s first rodeo.

 

The 104-year-old Brooklyn resident has lived through the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and both World Wars. Plus, she’s survived Stage 4 melanoma, two broken hips, an infection that affects the colon called Clostridioides difficile, and now, the coronavirus.

 

“She always used to say, ‘I was born under a lucky star.’ That was her mantra in life,” her daughter Barbara Senese, 77, told CBS News. “And you know what? To be able to get through this virus, those words often come to my mind.”

 

Senese and Johann Giordano, 75, have visited their mother every day at her residence at the Sheepshead Nursing and Rehabilitation Center until March, when the nursing home stopped letting in visitors. The doting daughters were forced to make their visits through their mother’s first-floor window, gloved and masked up for extra protection against COVID-19.

 

During a visit on March 26, their normally engaged mother didn’t seem like herself, and on April 4, the women received word that their mother had tested positive for the coronavirus. Acconciamessa’s symptoms began with a very bad cough before going “strictly downhill,” Senese said.

 

“We really didn’t think she was going to be able to pull through this,” Senese told CBS News. “She wasn’t even able to speak. She was lifeless.”

 

Although they expected the worst, they knew she was a “fighter” with “an underlying strength to conquer things.”

 

By April 24, Senese said the nursing home reported that Acconciamessa was doing “much, much better” and by May 1, she became “very chatty” once again.

 

Marco Perrone, a nurse at the facility where Acconciamessa battled COVID-19, calls her recovery nothing short of a “miracle,” considering the higher fatality rate among older Americans, especially in nursing homes.

 

The secret to longevity according to this perennial survivor? Stick to red. Senese said her mother was known to down a glass of red wine, plus a red McIntosh apple, every day until the age of 102.

 

Barbara Senese, 77, and Ida Acconciamessa, 104 Talk about good genes!

Edited May 6, 2020 by samhexum

[JulianLondon]

A great comment posted on the superb NY Times article below.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html#commentsContainer

 

Times Pick

The important question is are we going to be better prepared the next time an epidemic/pandemic strikes, and if not, why not? If the US can get through this outbreak, it will be thanks to the under-equipped hard-working, self-sacrificing doctors, nurses, health professionals, research scientists, epidemiologists and public health experts. And, NO thanks to the incompetent, misinforming, make-matters-worse President Trump and a Republican Party that cater to the rich and big business, and value money and partisan power over honesty, human decency, and the well being of people, society, and the planet. The best way to prepare for another epidemic, which is made more likely by climate change, is to have a strong public health system, decent affordable health insurance for all citizens, and a healthy food supply made possible by responsible agricultural methods, processing, and delivery systems. Also key is keeping our immune systems strong by choosing a healthy lifestyle; governments assuring clean water, soil, and air; dealing with homelessness and constructing effective caring, supportive communities and neighborhoods. Which is more important to society in the long run? A redundant and very expensive military (that can't win wars even against third world countries), or a high quality, healthy society, people, and environment that is planned for future generations as well? Is it guns, or health?

[+ bigjoey]

Interesting numbers:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html

 

First, ALL 370 showed no symptoms! That means none knew they were infected. Think about that 17% of the people working in that factory are walking around infecting others with no knowledge of what they are doing.

 

Second, while it shows the importance of testing and tracing, there is no “treat” but only self-quarantine. The “test-trace-treat” mantra is really “test-trace-quarantine.” It does show the importance of continuing to pay the people while at home.

 

Third, it raises the question of why does the virus hit so differently. These workers are mostly young if they are line employees but there could be supervisors and others who are presumably older. But still we know that young people do get sick from the virus and some need hospitalization and some the ICU and some die. But I find this group interesting in that none of them are “sick” (at least yet). Will they ever get sick or is there something in their system that protects them?

 

Finally, how often should an employer test his/her employees. If it is a nursing home, would every shift need to be tested because the risk is so high? Would a meat packing plant need to test every few days? If things open up, before going into a crowded venue, or a cruise or an airplane flight would everyone need testing? These carriers with no symptoms are the wild card in trying to return to normal. In addition, logically there should be a large number of people who were sick with no symptoms but now over the virus and whose body should carry the antibodies to be immune; in two weeks, these 370 people will be added to the growing number of people who should be immune (we do not know for how long). We need to know the number of people who are immune in total; we could be working our way unknowingly toward herd immunity.

 

There is still much more to learn about the strange behavior of this virus.

 

 

Update in figures:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/495946-pork-processing-plant-in-missouri-confirms-373

 

Apparently, some did have symptoms

[mike carey]

352/8386 would lead to a case fatality rate of about 0.4%

I think that's just over 4%. You are, of course correct that the actual rate is certain to have been far lower if wider testing had taken place.

[+ Archer]

352 deaths out of 8386 confirmed infections is 4.197%, not .04%.

[MscleLovr]

What is Germany doing differently, assuming its statistics are reported on the same basis as the others?

 

This question interested me too @BgMstr4u. I did look into it and there is no easy answer. What I can say definitely is that the numbers reported are NOT on the same basis.

 

Each EU country seems to use different definitions. For instance, the UK reports all deaths where Covid19 is mentioned on the death certificate (as in Covid19 may have been a factor) and doctors have been urged to include any death where they even have a suspicion of Covid19. Deaths in UK hospitals are reported daily while care-homes and elderly residential-homes report deaths weekly; deaths at home are reported within 72 hours.

 

France and Spain have taken a very different stance and only count deaths in hospital. In France, media pressure caused this policy to change about 4 weeks ago - such deaths are now counted but the French director-general of Health says it’s not possible to report deaths in care- or residential-homes in a timely manner. The French union of primary care physicians estimates that at least 9000 people have died of Covid19 “in the wider community” since the start of the epidemic. Spain has of course had a scandal where some elderly care homes were simply abandoned with residents inside. Spain does record deaths at home usually but seems to be having difficulty doing so currently.

[+ honcho]

Interesting numbers:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html

 

First, ALL 370 showed no symptoms! That means none knew they were infected. Think about that 17% of the people working in that factory are walking around infecting others with no knowledge of what they are doing.

 

Second, while it shows the importance of testing and tracing, there is no “treat” but only self-quarantine. The “test-trace-treat” mantra is really “test-trace-quarantine.” It does show the importance of continuing to pay the people while at home.

 

 

Underscoring what @bigjoey said, quoting from the cited article:

 

Those with positive test results have been asked to stay home and self-isolate. They will be paid under the company's Covid wage continuation policy, according to Campbell.

The company is also providing care packages, including hand sanitizer and face masks, to infected workers. In an effort to slow the spread, the company continues to deep clean, sanitize and disinfect the facility, Campbell said.

[Guest]

Update in figures:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/495946-pork-processing-plant-in-missouri-confirms-373

 

Apparently, some did have symptoms

I think that's just over 4%. You are, of course correct that the actual rate is certain to have been far lower if wider testing had taken place.

My bad, MC. However, according to the article, very few had symptoms: "More than 90 percent of samples of the positive test results were collected from asymptomatic patients." I think one can conclude that asymptomatic infection is very common, perhaps the most likely consequence of infection. The findings in this group also support the hypothesis that the virus may be less dangerous as the weather gets warmer.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Unicorn

[mike carey]

My bad, MC. However, according to the article, very few had symptoms: "More than 90 percent of samples of the positive test results were collected from asymptomatic patients." I think one can conclude that asymptomatic infection is very common, perhaps the most likely consequence of infection. The findings in this group also support the hypothesis that the virus may be less dangerous as the weather gets warmer.

I agree with all of that, and although it may be unusual the order of magnitude difference in the percentage in the MO numbers makes little difference to your thesis. We are about to see in both hemispheres whether the change in weather has an effect. Here, the PM seems to be rushing the relaxation of precautions, but not by much. Oh, and don't fret about the percentage, it's incredibly easy to mess up converting a fraction into a percentage, and I speak from experience!

[BgMstr4u]

This question interested me too @BgMstr4u. I did look into it and there is no easy answer. What I can say definitely is that the numbers reported are NOT on the same basis.

 

Each EU country seems to use different definitions. For instance, the UK reports all deaths where Covid19 is mentioned on the death certificate (as in Covid19 may have been a factor) and doctors have been urged to include any death where they even have a suspicion of Covid19. Deaths in UK hospitals are reported daily while care-homes and elderly residential-homes report deaths weekly; deaths at home are reported within 72 hours.

 

France and Spain have taken a very different stance and only count deaths in hospital. In France, media pressure caused this policy to change about 4 weeks ago - such deaths are now counted but the French director-general of Health says it’s not possible to report deaths in care- or residential-homes in a timely manner. The French union of primary care physicians estimates that at least 9000 people have died of Covid19 “in the wider community” since the start of the epidemic. Spain has of course had a scandal where some elderly care homes were simply abandoned with residents inside. Spain does record deaths at home usually but seems to be having difficulty doing so currently.

Thank you very much, @MscleLovr. I was not aware of these differences. They obviously make statistical comparisons more difficult. Do you know how Germany does its counting? Is there a convenient and reliable description of how different countries do their reporting?

 

Thanks for good work!

[+ bigjoey]

This question interested me too @BgMstr4u. I did look into it and there is no easy answer. What I can say definitely is that the numbers reported are NOT on the same basis.

 

Each EU country seems to use different definitions. For instance, the UK reports all deaths where Covid19 is mentioned on the death certificate (as in Covid19 may have been a factor) and doctors have been urged to include any death where they even have a suspicion of Covid19. Deaths in UK hospitals are reported daily while care-homes and elderly residential-homes report deaths weekly; deaths at home are reported within 72 hours.

 

France and Spain have taken a very different stance and only count deaths in hospital. In France, media pressure caused this policy to change about 4 weeks ago - such deaths are now counted but the French director-general of Health says it’s not possible to report deaths in care- or residential-homes in a timely manner. The French union of primary care physicians estimates that at least 9000 people have died of Covid19 “in the wider community” since the start of the epidemic. Spain has of course had a scandal where some elderly care homes were simply abandoned with residents inside. Spain does record deaths at home usually but seems to be having difficulty doing so currently.

 

 

There are some differences that may give Germany its lower numbers.

 

One is Germany still gives the BCG vaccine shots whereas most places like the US stopped long ago. It is uncertain that this could have an effect but I have seen this pop up a number of times.

 

Germany does not have as big a percentage of multigenerational households as Italy as thus seniors are more segregated.

 

Germany is one of the cleanest places I have been. Part of this is that almost all buildings were destroyed in WWII and rebuilt within the last 70 years. Italy, France and other places have buildings that are hundreds of years old and not only harder to clean but often are famous for rats. Every morning on the way to work I would see German housewives out sweeping the sidewalks. I commented once to a German business associate how clean everything was; he smiled and said only Switzerland is cleaner (the Germans seem to hold the Swiss and their numbered bank accounts in high esteem?).

 

The German healthcare system is good but it is a mixed system with private healthcare and insurance in addition to their public system.

 

Germany is a wealthy country and can afford better everything from food, housing, healthcare, etc. Bottom line, wealthier countries will do better than poorer ones. As bad as we think our death totals are, wait until some of the poor countries like Brazil or India feel the full force of Covid19.

 

I think it is still too early to make clear judgements. Unfortunately, we need to wait before taking a look to make firm judgements. Clearly, different countries are experiencing different rates of hospitalization and deaths and infections; eventually, the puzzle pieces will fall into place.

[+ bigjoey]

More mystery. It has now been discovered that the virus arrived in Europe in December rather than January. It was quietly circulating before being discovered. This could account for the surprising number of people who have the antibodies in their blood.

 

The mystery to me is why didn’t it flare up earlier. As contagious as it is, it seems many people had it but either showed no symptoms or might have had mild symptoms that made them think they had a cold or light flu. What changed?

[RealAvalon]

A graphic representation of numbers of dead from the various pandemics over the centuries:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/?fbclid=IwAR2kBC0ZST1Yfkqg30v2Yox4OYm26PZjc1jzaI6BH17g1x_mhy9YFjjYVhY

[LivingnLA]

More mystery. It has now been discovered that the virus arrived in Europe in December rather than January. It was quietly circulating before being discovered. This could account for the surprising number of people who have the antibodies in their blood.

 

The mystery to me is why didn’t it flare up earlier. As contagious as it is, it seems many people had it but either showed no symptoms or might have had mild symptoms that made them think they had a cold or light flu. What changed?

 

Yes, it was in Europe in December or even possibly November. It was in the US in January or possibly December. The US saw earliest cases on the West Coast based on the strain directly from China. The East Coast was infected by a strain from Europe that appears to be more contagious and became the dominant global strain by mid March.

 

Something else to consider, the 2019-2020 flu season was bad compared to previous years. Perhaps many early coronavirus cases were missed and misdiagnosed. We'll never know for sure because so many cases are asymptomatic and testing remains very limited in the USA. Heck, it'll be a year or more before we have a solid understanding of how many humans actually died because of this coronavirus.

 

https://slate.com/technology/2020/01/flu-season-a-strain-b-strain-deadly.html

[MscleLovr]

Do you know how Germany does its counting? Is there a convenient and reliable description of how different countries do their reporting?

 

No, I don’t know how Germany does the count. As it has a federal government, much is devolved to the states or regional governments. A very recent example of how Germany differs is that two regions with few cases pushed hard for easing while Bavaria with the highest number of cases was opposed; Chancellor Merkel resisted easing lockdown but has just now agreed; individual states are to reimpose controls if the infection rate increases rapidly.

 

And No, there is no easy nor reliable way to understand what all the various countries do. Being locked down in London and unable to travel to Spain, I spent time looking into how those two countries record infections and deaths. Because I have friends in France who work in medical science, I asked about the French system of reporting which turned out to be rather bureaucratic.

[+ bigjoey]

Interesting statistics from Cuomo:

66% of hospitalization cases were people who were staying home and sheltered in place plus 18% were from nursing homes. That is 84% of the people who needed hospitalization were not out and about but still the virus found them.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

 

More evidence that the total lockdown may not have been necessary. A partial lockdown of “older” populations and those most at risk could possibly done as well without all the collateral damage to the economy and people.

[BgMstr4u]

Thank you so much, @bigjoey, for this Cuomo article. Very interesting, very helpful. I wonder if comparable data are available from other states.

[+ bigjoey]

Thank you so much, @bigjoey, for this Cuomo article. Very interesting, very helpful. I wonder if comparable data are available from other states.

 

If you look at the chart, when you add the assisted living and congregate facilities where people are NOT out and about and working in groceries, drug stores, hospitals, on the subways and buses that get you to 90% of the hospitalization cases! This one population cohort should be ones not getting the virus.

 

To this figure, we really need to know what percentage of the population is/was quarantined and what percentage was working or otherwise out and about. However, it indicates that the virus is finding its victims and as noted, “flattening the curve” just allows for a more controlled access to the hospitals.

 

The numbers will eventually be analyzed when this is all over before definite conclusions can be drawn.