Question to financial anaylst/economist members:

[+ sync]

My paranoia has been at work again. It seems suspicious and all too timely to me that, repeatedly, whenever the Dow tanks, money seems to come from somewhere. My suspicion is that Trump's dark-money cronies carefully watch the Dow, and whenever it seriously tanks, they pump it back up just enough to save Trump's ass. I would like to get opinions on two fronts: (1) how likely/possible is it that my suspicion could be valid; (2) have any of you had similar suspicions?

Thanks.

[Kevin Slater]

The amount of money it would take to move the DJIA is far too huge to be attributable to political motivation.

 

Kevin Slater

[+ ArVaGuy]

Trust @Kevin Slater on this issue. The financial resources necessary for such action would have to be into the hundreds of billions and perhaps trillions. Further, it would require such coordinated effort and timing as to be blatantly obvious and quickly exposed.

 

Even the Working Group on Financial Markets otherwise known as “The Plunge Protection Team” wouldn’t be able to pull off such and it’s mandate is to triage serious stock market volatility to prevent a collapse. It’s track record is questionable.

 

Wall Street is a bipolar, schizophrenic, paranoid, alcoholic addicted to low interest rates.

[Beancounter]

Simple advice that had always worked for me.....buy the dips in the market. Invested heavily back in the 2007-2009 years. Has made my life much easier these days. This will make sense to long-term investors.

 

The market is what it is. Trump and his policies are only one of a multitude of things that impact the market.

[+ bigjoey]

Simple advice that had always worked for me.....buy the dips in the market. Invested heavily back in the 2007-2009 years. Has made my life much easier these days. This will make sense to long-term investors.

 

The market is what it is. Trump and his policies are only one of a multitude of things that impact the market.

 

I always believed in the future of America and treated dips as buying opportunities. Over the long run, at age 73 that turned out to be a very successful strategy.

[down_to_business]

I find it much more likely that Trump's cronies are profiting on the markets dips and fluctuations than spending their own money to artificially prop it up. After all, what harm in some leaked economic data or pre tweet notification between friends

 

Whatever you do, never panic sell. By then, it's usually too late and the damage is done. The very best thing you can do is invest in low fee index funds, never try to time the market, and if you are really bothered by the volatility - try to avoid looking at the daily market results.

[+ VictorPowers]

I find it much more likely that Trump's cronies are profiting on the markets dips and fluctuations than spending their own money to artificially prop it up. After all, what harm in some leaked economic data or pre tweet notification between friends

 

Whatever you do, never panic sell. By then, it's usually too late and the damage is done. The very best thing you can do is invest in low fee index funds, never try to time the market, and if you are really bothered by the volatility - try to avoid looking at the daily market results.

VANGUARD!!!

[+ azdr0710]

VANGUARD!!!

 

yes!!....Vanguard is legendary for low-fee index funds......they practically pioneered them........though a huge company now, there is something about Vanguard that's trusty and home-spun.....the John Bogle aura and all that.......

[+ oldNbusted]

The robots know a deal when they see one...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading

[Kevin Slater]

VANGUARD!!!

Fidelity!

 

Kevin Slater

[jawjateck]

Alot of NYSE volume is program trading. It has not been a good thing, since it routinely spooks nervous retail investors out of the market, while the big boys swoop in and pick up the pieces for profit.

[+ ArVaGuy]

Alot of NYSE volume is program trading. It has not been a good thing, since it routinely spooks nervous retail investors out of the market, while the big boys swoop in and pick up the pieces for profit.

 

Agreed. That’s why the big boys refer to retail investors as “dumb money”.

[JayCeeKy]

Fidelity! More options, great research tools, automatic bill pay, downloaded tax info into your Turbo Tax software, personal financial advisor. Vanguard is good, but Fidelity is better - I've been with them for 30 years.

 

As far as Trump's buds pumping money into markets to save his fat ass, I think it's more likely that Trump lets them (probably his kids) know about a tweet (e.g. imposing more tariffs on China) that he will send out the next day that will rock the market - and provide huge gains for investors who "shorted" the market the day before.

 

Unless you have insider information (a crime which hardly ever gets caught/punished except for Martha S.), trust the "market efficiency theory" - market prices reflect all available, relevant information. If markets are efficient, then all information is already incorporated into prices, and so there is no way to "beat" the market because there are no under- or overvalued securities available. That's why "experts" in market forcasting are no more accurate (over time) than throwing darts at a list of NYSE securities. Put your money (every month) into low expense, no-load Index funds and then check them every six months or yearly.

[+ keroscenefire]

I think volatility of the stock market is actually a pretty rational response to Trump's irrational economic plans. His random tariffs simultaneously help some companies while hurting others so they become kind of a wash. His corporate tax cuts were great overall, but the profit effect of them is now wearing off for many companies. International events also are sometimes good and sometimes bad for different companies (Brexit, China's currency manipulation, Iran oil disruptions) and Trump's response is so random, company's have a hard time catching up. Same to be said for the Federal Reserve...which is having to lower interest rates at time of very low unemployment. That is quite unusual and sends very mixed messages to the stock market (low rates are good but does this mean we're about to have a recession?). The fact that the yield curve has inverted is also a bit scary but also hard to assess short-term.

 

It's not a conspiracy..it's the market trying to figure out how the fuck to respond to a irrational president who doesn't really know what he is doing along with international events that one can barely make heads or tails of.

[+ bigjoey]

I think volatility of the stock market is actually a pretty rational response to Trump's irrational economic plans. His random tariffs simultaneously help some companies while hurting others so they become kind of a wash. His corporate tax cuts were great overall, but the profit effect of them is now wearing off for many companies. International events also are sometimes good and sometimes bad for different companies (Brexit, China's currency manipulation, Iran oil disruptions) and Trump's response is so random, company's have a hard time catching up. Same to be said for the Federal Reserve...which is having to lower interest rates at time of very low unemployment. That is quite unusual and sends very mixed messages to the stock market (low rates are good but does this mean we're about to have a recession?). The fact that the yield curve has inverted is also a bit scary but also hard to assess short-term.

 

It's not a conspiracy..it's the market trying to figure out how the fuck to respond to a irrational president who doesn't really know what he is doing along with international events that one can barely make heads or tails of.

 

Markets like predictability and stability. Trump is so irrational and unpredictable that positions can change from one tweet to another in minutes. Trump seems not to listen to any advisers or read anything longer than a tweet to gain knowledge beyond what he thinks he already knows.

 

The workings of an economy are very complex and understanding anything complex seems to be beyond his capacity of comprehension. He only listens to his gut to make a decision.

 

The markets like a steady hand on the wheel. It is hard enough to predict what may happen with an economy but having an irrational person at the helm just makes it harder and results in a market’s wild fluctuations.

 

“fasten your seatbelts....”