TonyDown
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Posts posted by TonyDown
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I am not being snarky when I say you might need therapy. Sure it helps to get a reality check here, but with all you've described, your situation sounds super stressful and emotionally draining.
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Boeing is getting very unpleasant publicity this evening on Last Week Tonight.
In the meantime Boeing has been sued by passengers on that Alaska Airlines flight with door plug that blew out.
I honestly don't know how this might affect the stock tomorrow but I am certainly going to watch tomorrow's trading.
3 passengers on Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 where door plug blew out sue the airline and Boeing for $1 billion
WWW.CBSNEWS.COM
The lawsuit seeking $1 billion in damages was filed on behalf of... -
Anyone try Kent yet?
Now in Orange County.
His incall rate is higher than outcall rate
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https://www.masseurfinder.com/massage-therapists/46737/
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Joseph Gordon Levitt
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Hudson admitted Garlington was the only man he truly ever loved. Garlington was touched when he heard that was the case. He was not aware.
Hudson's persona was manufactured. That he was gay was known within the entertainment industry.
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On 2/9/2024 at 6:12 PM, stevenkesslar said:
I was curious. So I Googled his name and "Boeing" and came up with this post from Jan. 29 in which he lays out his concerns about Boeing. As you say, all his investment advice sounds spot on.
Buy defense stocks
GOL, one of Brazil's largest airlines, did just go bankrupt. They were actually doing okay in terms of operating costs, given the global recovery. But their problem was all the debt they got loaded up with during the pandemic. Boeing is somewhat in the same ballpark, according to FT. Fitz-Gerald sounds right in saying the pain probably is not over.
One thing I did learn is that when I read the word "bankruptcy" in print, I should believe it. Some Brazilian financial newspaper leaked that GOL was considering filing for bankruptcy, which led to an immediate huge intraday drop. The company issued a statement saying they were in negotiations, blah blah blah, and nothing would happen in January. So the stock recovered to pretty much where it had been. During that brief recovery, I sold half my shares at a small profit. I figured I had a few weeks to sell the rest for a little more, if the recovery continued. Then they unexpectedly filed for bankruptcy on Jan. 25. They essentially admitted they lied about their timeline once the news leaked that bankruptcy was in fact imminent, to stay ahead of the curve. I'm kicking myself for not selling everything. But when I net out what I made in short term gains over several years riding that wave, I came out with only a small loss.
I like what Fitz-Gerald says about defense stocks. I bought RTX late last year and am up about 12 % as of today. Every once in a while going back half a century Raytheon's value drops 30 to 50 %. In this recent case, like Boeing, mostly due to their own errors. And it is always a good time to buy, because they always recover. Unlike GOL, which was a failed exercise in market timing, that is one I bought for the reason Fitz-Gerald said. It is a long cycle investment with a decent dividend.
Where he sounds particularly spot on is that all tech is not the same. And, mostly, the bigger the better: like AAPL and MSFT, which he mentions. It seems like this market is all tech, all the time. I got a big cash windfall when I sold a rental home last August. The shares of AAPL I bought then are up about 5 %. Not bad. The shares in FNGU and SOXL, which are 3x bullish ETFs, are both up about 75 %. It's all the big tech names, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA. What could possibly go wrong?
If you bought Boeing when the S & P 500 peaked in 2000, you would have done just as well as buying it or the S & P. Both are up a little more than 3x their 2000 high. RTX is more like 5x its 2000 value. Microsoft, one of the big winners of the 2000 tech bubble, is now worth 7x its 2000 value. Apple comes in at about 140x its 2000 value. Again, it seems like all tech, all the time.
That said, at some point the tech trip is going to get very bumpy. And when it goes bad it will feel like being on one of those Boeings when the doors blow out mid-flight. Happily, it's easier to parachute out of tech stocks than it is a Boeing jet. Meanwhile, enjoy the blue skies!
I agree that RTX is a solid company however it is not the same as Raytheon. Raytheon merged with UTC which ultimately is guiding the ship IMO.
That said, RTX seems agile and their products are impressive.
I'd buy RTX before Boeing, mostly because Boeing manages on the cheap IMO.
Driving costs down is important but has Boeing taken their eye off the ball?
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There are many more exceptional choices in Monterey Park and surrounding areas. Also, Cerritos.
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6 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:
So here is a very interesting chart from the latest report of the Conference Board on the leading economic index. The LEI is supposed to help indicate when a recession is ahead of us.
Bad news, and good news.
Bad news is that, in oversimplified terms, whenever the blue line meets the red line on the way down, we know a recession is imminent. So since we are under the red line, we are either now - or about to be - in a recession. in theory.
Good news: In fact, does anyone notice the problem?
In 2001, 2008, and 2020, the simple idea worked. When the LEI hit that red line, we were already in a recession in two of the three examples. In the 9/11 recession, by the time the LEI bottomed its "V" at about -12 the recession had started.
Yet this time, we hit that red line over a year ago, in 2022. Which is why we have heard so much about a recession coming. For over a year. And yet, where is it?
Meanwhile, the LEI appears to have bottomed and is back on its way up. The chart above slightly understates the case for optimism. I could not cut and paste the Dec. 2023 image from the report. So that image above is from October 2023, which I found online and could cut and paste. The December chart shows the blue line kept rising at the end of 2023, and is now near the red line ON THE WAY UP. Meaning perhaps the danger has passed?
Here is what the report itself says about a 2024 recession:
So we are not out of the woods yet, according to the Conference Board. But we have heard this song before. And what they are talking about now - two quarters of slightly negative growth - is the shortest and shallowest of recessions imaginable. in theory. If it actually happens.
What's interesting is that the strongest indicators for both optimism and pessimism are pretty subjective. The most bullish indicator is that the stock market is on a tear. The most pessimistic indicator is that public opinion about the economy is, and has been, so pessimistic. Yet it is clear that, right now, both the stock market and public opinion about the economy are going up - not down. So on both a leading indicator for optimism and a leading indicator for pessimism, the bulls seem to winning.
I will mention again a key fact I cited above: when asked about their personal financial prospects in 2024, 2 in 3 Americans say they think they will be better off financially this year. That may be telling us something, too.
I've been dissecting this with my stock geeky nephew, and we have two different theories. Both of which are plausible. He thinks it's all that COVID stimulus money and "forced savings" that is still not spent out. I think it's the fact that, as I have posted repeatedly, consumer debt as a percentage of disposal income is at a relative low, not a high. Whether you like the idea or not, consumers have a lot more credit they could take on to fuel an expanding recovery. Maybe the stock market knows this.
I agree with your nephew that COVID money was a factor. I assumed it was one factor why prices rose. But yeah it makes sense the economy would hum with COVID money being spent.
I see Jamie Dimon has altered his "recession is coming, there are bad things ahead" language to "the US is driving towards a cliff due to the national debt." I suppose that helps his image by letting go of the "recession" word.
The US "driving off a cliff" sounds more like the great, terrible unknown. Could be a recession, but who knows?
I wish Jamie Dimon would end his interviews that way, saying "Who really knows?", with an exaggerated shoulder shrug.
- + stevenkesslar and EZEtoGRU
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I couldn't tell you one song by Usher or Taylor Swift, but I do know much about Brock Purdy.
My favorite Super Bowl halftime....
Katy Perry
https://youtu.be/ZD1QrIe--_Y?si=Z_cjIKocMjI_ph31
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I found much of the show was shallow, pretentious, disrespectful and/or long winded. What the hell is up with these people?
But I'd rather focus on the good. Loved all of the following.
Joni Mitchell
Tracy Chapman/Luke Combs Fast Car
Miley Cyrus won twice. She is awesome. She ought to cover What Was I Made For at the Oscars.
Billy Joel
Celine Dion
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Operawire.com reported LA Opera scrapped their plan to premier The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier & Clay due to financial challenges. The ambitious production became too expensive.
I'm sad to hear this.
Anyone that has read the Micheal Chabon novel might not be surprised. Quite an epic, complicated story.
- thomas, Marc in Calif and sydneyboy
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On 2/2/2024 at 1:54 PM, g56whiz said:
So in episode 1 (which I just finished) Truman Capote, towel clad, swishes drunkenly down the stairs into a steam room. And who should he espy? The only other towel clad occupant: Russell Tovey [SWOON}. R rated amusement follows. I may actually have to watch this thing.
Russell Tovey was a pleasant surprise for me. First time I recall him doing an American accent. He's awesome.
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On 12/9/2023 at 4:43 PM, Ali Gator said:
I always liked him. I DVRd his show every weekend if I wasn't home to watch him, and enjoyed when he guest hosted for other shows when the host was off that night / week. Like many other viewers, I thought it was rather peculiar - if not obvious - that MSNBC yanked him out of his chair the weekend of October 7. Everyone else was doing full coverage of what was happening overseas, but he was notably missing. There has been plenty of discussion about this on other message forums over the past two months.
I liked him too and was disappointed when was taken off.
NBC News shut down Ronan Farrow for investigating Harvey Weinstein, so there is that history. Not the best.
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On 1/27/2024 at 7:38 PM, TonyDown said:
Can someone please share what is the name of this music and where it's from.
It's very familiar.
Have you ever visited the Faye Sarkowsky Sculpture Garden? Open every...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM
Have you ever visited the Faye Sarkowsky Sculpture Garden...Was on the tip of my tongue.
Finally got it!!
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He posted once on the other Forum not long ago.
- + azdr0710 and + Lucky
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Can someone please share what is the name of this music and where it's from.
It's very familiar.
Have you ever visited the Faye Sarkowsky Sculpture Garden? Open every...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM
Have you ever visited the Faye Sarkowsky Sculpture Garden... -
Financially yes. My job kept rolling along.
Socially, not, e.g. some social events I used to attend never re-started. Casual gatherings like going to the cinema don't seem to happen like they used to either.
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21 hours ago, Walt said:
According to my reliable source who is actually the person who told her reliable source, Abraham Lincoln was also there with his "roommate" as was that uber-hot Dothraki warrior, Khal Drogo, and several of the newest hunky Hollywood stars that are so new you wouldn't even know their names yet. 😉
Seriously though, she has a reliable source" who doesn't share address or phone number???? That's not even as good as the reliable source I had in pre-school who confided in me that the moon was made out of green cheese.
My neighbor Carmine tells me that two southern Senators are know to patronize a certain men's club in NYC that he visits during business trips to the Big Apple.
I shouldn't name names other than how other patrons refer to them as Aunt Pittipat and Evil Kinevil.
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Friday Funnies
in The Lounge
Posted
There are interviews on YouTube of the cast of Taxi remembering his antics. Highly recommended. He was one of a kind.