The Impending Pandemic

[+ Lucky]

The World Health Organization has again issued a warning that the bird-flu epidemic could turn, and turn soon, into a world-wide pandemic. Why isn't this being taken more seriously? Millions could die, making the tsunami look like a minor thing.

 

WHO issues alert over flu pandemic fears

By Frances Williams in Geneva

Published: January 21 2005 02:00 | Last updated: January 21 2005 02:00

 

The World Health Organis-ation yesterday warned a global influenza pandemic based on the deadly bird flu virus "may be imminent" and again called on countries and drug companies to develop a vaccine.

 

 

The warning came as Vietnam reported the death of an 18-year-old girl from the virus and said it had confirmed the first case of human infection in the north of the country. Up to 10 more suspected human cases are under investigation. In a report to this week's meeting of its executive board, WHO said the H5N1 bird flu virus was endemic in poultry in east Asia and appeared to be evolving "in ways that increasingly favour the start of a pandemic".

 

There were similarities with the virus that caused the 1918 flu pandemic, in which more than 40m people died, WHO noted. It cited the severity of the illness, its concentration among young, healthy people and the occurrence of primary viral pneumonia which cannot be treated with antibiotics.

 

A mutated virus that transmitted easily between humans would probably be less pathogenic than bird flu, which has killed 38 people in Vietnam and Thailand since the outbreaks of the H5N1 virus in poultry were reported last year.

 

However, since no one is immune to this virus, even on a best-case scenario WHO experts believe there could be up to 7m deaths, and at worst up to 100m could die, with up to a third of the population falling ill. The two most recent pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, together claimed more than 3m lives.

 

WHO, which is urging its 192 member governments to draw up plans to cope with a flu pandemic, said efforts to develop a vaccine had made progress "but not with a speed appropriate to the urgency of the situation". Since there would not be enough vaccine supplies to meet global needs, countries should consider quarantine and travel restrictions. "Each day gained could mean an additional 5m doses of vaccine," it said.

 

Yesterday's death brings to 26 the human death toll from bird flu in Vietnam. There have also been 12 deaths in Thailand, which this week confirmed the first outbreaks of the virus in poultry in two months.

[+ Lucky]

Last Saturday President Bush quietly issued an order allowing for individuals suspected to have bird flu to be quarantined, and yesterday the Times reported that stocks of Tamiflu are shockingly low. Tamiflu may or may not provide relief in the absence of anything else to combat the virus. Meanwhile, the bird flu in North Korea was found to be of a different strain than the bird flu in Vietnam and Thailand. The Korea strain transfers to humans easier, but is less dangerous.

 

Hoarding Tamiflu is discouraged in the Times article.

[mercury40]

Meanwhile, the

>bird flu in North Korea was found to be of a different strain

>than the bird flu in Vietnam and Thailand.

 

I guess that shoots down the old adage that "birds of a feather flock together".

 

Thanks for bringing this important health alert to our attention.

[Guest msclonly]

Mutation

 

Viruses mutate from species to species, and transfer from species to species. None of them are good to get infected by, since there is a time lag before effective vaccines and medications are determined and manufactured. Resistence to therapy is not uncommon.

 

}( ;( ;(

[+ Lucky]

Well, I guess we can't rest too easily on this news:

 

WHO Expert: Bird Flu Strains Could Combine

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

Published: April 6, 2005

 

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) -- Two strains of bird flu in Asia may combine to create a highly lethal and easily transmissible virus, a U.N. health official warned Wednesday, amid widespread fears that the disease could cause the next human pandemic.

 

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization on Tuesday confirmed that birds in North Korea were infected with the H7 bird flu strain that sickened nearly 90 people and killed one in the Netherlands two years ago. It is distinct from the H5N1 strain that has decimated poultry populations across Asia since December 2003 and killed at least 50 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

 

Both strains can jump from birds to humans but only the H7 virus has been shown to spread from person to person, raising concern that it could unite with the deadlier H5N1 strain and cause a global pandemic.

 

``The fact that two viruses -- one with a proven track record of transmitting easily into people and another with a mortality rate of between 50 and 80 percent -- are circulating in Asia at the same time is something to keep a very close eye on,'' William L. Aldis, the World Health Organization representative in Thailand, told The Associated Press.

 

If H7 and H5N1 came into contact and exchanged genetic material, it could create an ``organism with H5 lethality and H7 transmissibility,'' said Aldis.

 

H7 caused eye inflammation and flu-like symptoms in dozens of people in the Netherlands, but there have been no reports of human infections of any strain of bird flu in secretive North Korea. Health workers have killed some 219,000 birds on three farms near the capital, Pyongyang.

 

Governments of 10 Asian countries have slaughtered millions of fowl to arrest the spread of H5N1.

 

Based on the number of humans infected with H7 in the Netherlands, ``one would have to assume that this H7 is not very lethal ... but it's highly transmissible,'' Aldis said.

[FrancoDiSantisxxx]

RE: Mutation

 

>Viruses mutate from species to species, and transfer from

>species to species. None of them are good to get infected by,

>since there is a time lag before effective vaccines and

>medications are determined and manufactured. Resistence to

>therapy is not uncommon.

 

Actually, viruses cannot transfer that easily, from one animal species to another animal species, or from an animal species to a human one and, vice versa. Bird Flu has existed for centuries, perhaps since the dawn of time, and it is thought that viruses are becoming more prevelant and deadlier in the current times (and thus, the current panic and real concern) because of the practice in the last 50 to 75 years of placing birds (most commonly, although not always, chickens) in large, enclosed environments, where their food and the birds themselves can come in easy contact with their own refuse and feces and where close quarters also can create an easy environment for viral transfer. This close quarters and confinement of birds is also taking place in proximity to large urban areas of human, which are themselves in crowded and less than ideal settings as far as sanitation and health, which is creating an environment where a more pathogenic and virulent form of a bird flu virus can be transferred, in whole or in part, to humans.

 

A cold is a virus, for example, and one that mutates easily, which is why taking antibiotics for colds is reckless and harmful, since there is no baterial agent to "kill." The fact that it mutates easily (as with flus) is why there is no "cure" and one can contract a viral cold or a viral flu year after year. However, as the newspapers always suggest, there are a number of easy steps which people can take during flu season and cold season, such as avoiding close proximity and washing ones hands, etc.

 

For those who are interested, although I do not recommend the web site in whole, there is a good and thorough discussion of viruses, their history, etc., to be found here: http://library.thinkquest.org/23054/basics/index.html

[+ Lucky]

RE: UnBelievable Mistake

 

Scientists rush to destroy pandemic flu strain

WHO concerned samples may set off global epidemicThe Associated Press

Updated: 7:36 p.m. ET April 12, 2005Thousands of scientists were scrambling Tuesday at the urging of global health authorities to destroy vials of a pandemic flu strain sent to labs in 18 countries as part of routine testing.

 

The rush, urged by the World Health Organization, was sparked by a slim, but real, risk that the samples, could spark a global flu epidemic. The vials of virus sent by a U.S. company went to nearly 5,000 labs, mostly in the United States, officials said.

 

“The risk is relatively low that a lab worker will get sick, but a large number of labs got it and if someone does get infected, the risk of severe illness is high and this virus has shown to be fully transmissible,” WHO’s influenza chief, Klaus Stohr, told The Associated Press.

 

It was not immediately clear why the 1957 pandemic strain, which killed between 1 million and 4 million people — was in the proficiency test kits routinely sent to labs.

 

It was a decision that Stohr described as “unwise,” and “unfortunate.”

 

That particular bug was “an epidemic virus for many years,” Stohr said from the U.N. health agency’s headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. “The risk is low but things can go wrong as long as these samples are out there and there are some still out there.”

 

The 1957 strain has not been included in the flu vaccine since 1968, and anyone born after that date has no immunity to it.

 

Dr. Nancy Cox, chief of the influenza branch at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said her agency was notified of the situation Friday morning. She also said officials strongly doubt someone deliberately planted the dangerous germ or that this was an act of bioterrorism.

 

“It wouldn’t be a smart way to start a pandemic to send it to laboratories because we have people well trained in biocontainment,” she said.

 

The concern over the shipment of pandemic flu virus to thousands labs renews questions about the safe handling of deadly germs — an issue that led to toughened U.S. rules after anthrax was sent in the mail in 2001, killing five Americans.

 

Most of the flu samples — 3,747 — were sent starting last year at the request of the College of American Pathologists, which helps labs do proficiency testing. The last shipments were sent out in February.

 

Dr. Jared Schwartz, an official with the pathology college, said a private company, Meridian Bioscience Inc. of Cincinnati, Ohio, is paid to prepare the samples. The firm was told to pick an influenza A sample and chose from its stockpile the deadly 1957 H2N2 strain.

 

Stohr said U.S. health officials also reported to WHO that some other test kit providers besides the college used the 1957 pandemic strain in samples sent to labs in the United States. Schwartz identified them as Medical Lab Evaluators, the American Association of Bioanalysts and the American Association of Family Practitioners.

[tedbear]

>There were similarities with the virus that caused the 1918

>flu pandemic, in which more than 40m people died, WHO noted.

 

People think that an epidemic like the one caused by the "Spanish Flue" in 1918-21 couldn't happen today with our modern medicine. But back then, some people would leave work when they first felt sick and would be dead before they arrived at home. There were storied of four women playing cards one night, and three of them became sick and died before the night ended. How could today's medicine combat that except with a vaccine?

 

Over 25% of Americans were ill with the disease. Worldwide, 20 million people died in four months. In one Eskimo settlement in Alaska, 80% of the adults died. Although none of my direct ancestors died, many of their families died. One of my ancestors with a family with 18 children had all but 5 of them die due to the Spanish flu!

[Guest msclonly]

Viruses do mutate from species to species!

 

SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN had a very informatiive article several years ago with the pathway, that the swine flu takes to mutate until it it is able to infect humans. Notice how many people are infected, when Swine Flu travels around the globe in Winter, when resistence to it is low from a low immune system in humans.

 

Have you noticed how many of the annual winter flus start in the orient?

One of the prime reasons is the IDEAL conditions, that exist for their origination from the close proximity of the 3 species needed to mutate and infect. It was clearly pointed out that the virus goes from the hogs to the chickens to humans, especially children.

If you visit CHINA, you will see for yourself how the hogs and chickens roam freely around the children, adults and home, where the garbage is simply tossed out the windows or open doors into the yard for them to feed. Needless to say, that makes for easy access for the viruses to infect the humans living in the house! And the carried on the planes to other continents.

I wouldn't be asurprise, if this is more of the reason that bird-flus originate in similiar conditions. UNhygenic conditions to be sure!

 

Now, if your ideas of unhygenic conditions for chickens is the main cause, I doubt it, since both the chickens and hogs room freely unlike those in the United States where they are penned into their manure. So logically, the origin of viruses would be more likely right here in the States. I know what hog pens and chicken coops are like from experience on my Grandfather and Uncles' farms. In fact, I fell into the muddy manure outside the cow barn next to the hog pen, once! YUCK!

 

But I am convinced, that we are seeing more deadly viruses originating in cow's from the fact, that they are kept in feed lots, where they live for a time before market, and stand in their own urince and feces 24 hours a day. Als you have to do is drive past Harris Ranch off the Freeway I-5 near Fresno area to understand how 'gastly' it is. You can smell it for miles before and after driving by. I shut off all outside air to the car at that time. I can also get the same smell after cooking the Harris Ranch meat at home whick makes it impossible to 'stomach'. The smell of the manure gets into the fat and stays there.

SO I am sticking to grass fed cows, that roam the pristine pastures in a more natural way. Add Free Range Chickens instead of the peened unhealthy ones. Better Organic! I would recommend, that you do also, if you wish to build up your Immun System, and avoid the possibility of Mad Cow Disease, etc. That is inspite of how safe, we are told things are in the U.S.

 

For another side thought, last month, I had the chance to enjoy Argentiine Beef in Buenos Aires. It is a true joy to taste grass raised beef. It is sweeter in taste with a very tender texture and easier to digest. Remember grain fed penned animals can have ground animal parts added, which in itself is possibly a source of contamination and weakening of the animals AND downline consumers, like you and me. The healthy lifestyle press is loaded with information about this abuse!

 

There is a lot more, but enough for this post.

 

}( :+

[Guest msclonly]

Preventing Illness requires PREVENTIVE action!

 

The best way to prevent illness from WEAK viruses is to build up the immune system, that can resist the effects of the infections.

People with good immune systems are not as prone to getting the flu.

There are many articles on phytochemicals in foods that help the body stay healthy. Vitamin C in large doses would be the cheapest and maybe the best to take as a First Step on a daily basis.

Vit C helps prevetn the viruses from spreading from cell to cell in the body at the cellular membrane level. A WHOLESOME DIET of FRESH fruits and Vegetables contain many of the nutients nnede to protect the body from many of the top killers like heart disease, strokes and cancer, in addition to the protection against viruses.

 

There are many more preventive supplements and foods to take to inprove health and years to life.

Just start getting educated.

But the way this BBS can only give you the basics!

 

:+

[samhexum]

I came across this old thread whilst searching for something else and thought others might find it interesting in light of covid.

 

WHO issues alert over flu pandemic fears

The World Health Organization yesterday warned a global influenza pandemic based on the deadly bird flu virus "may be imminent" and again called on countries and drug companies to develop a vaccine.

 

There were similarities with the virus that caused the 1918 flu pandemic, in which more than 40m people died, WHO noted. It cited the severity of the illness, its concentration among young, healthy people and the occurrence of primary viral pneumonia which cannot be treated with antibiotics.

Last Saturday President Bush quietly issued an order allowing for individuals suspected to have bird flu to be quarantined, and yesterday the Times reported that stocks of Tamiflu are shockingly low. Tamiflu may or may not provide relief in the absence of anything else to combat the virus. Meanwhile, the bird flu in North Korea was found to be of a different strain than the bird flu in Vietnam and Thailand. The Korea strain transfers to humans easier, but is less dangerous. Hoarding Tamiflu is discouraged in the Times article.

Meanwhile, the bird flu in North Korea was found to be of a different strain than the bird flu in Vietnam and Thailand.

 

I guess that shoots down the old adage that "birds of a feather flock together".

April 12, 2005 Thousands of scientists were scrambling Tuesday at the urging of global health authorities to destroy vials of a pandemic flu strain sent to labs in 18 countries as part of routine testing.

 

The rush, urged by the World Health Organization, was sparked by a slim, but real, risk that the samples, could spark a global flu epidemic. The vials of virus sent by a U.S. company went to nearly 5,000 labs, mostly in the United States, officials said... It was not immediately clear why the 1957 pandemic strain, which killed between 1 million and 4 million people — was in the proficiency test kits routinely sent to labs... The 1957 strain has not been included in the flu vaccine since 1968, and anyone born after that date has no immunity to it.

People think that an epidemic like the one caused by the "Spanish Flue" in 1918-21 couldn't happen today with our modern medicine. But back then, some people would leave work when they first felt sick and would be dead before they arrived at home. There were storied of four women playing cards one night, and three of them became sick and died before the night ended. How could today's medicine combat that except with a vaccine?

 

 

Edited March 23, 2021 by samhexum

[+ WilliamM]

@samhexum

 

This discussion/thread is 16 years old. Someone born then would be a junior and in highschool now!!

[samhexum]

This discussion/thread is 16 years old. Someone born then would be a junior and in highschool now!!

 

Not necessarily... I started my senior year 3 weeks after my 16th birthday.

[wsc]

I remember a rumor from those early days that the Pope had contracted the bird flu. It was thought he'd caught it from a Cardinal.

[wsc]

I'm also reminded of an earlier health threat from the Swine Flu in the 1970s. President Ford led an aggressive effort to develop a cure, and one was developed. However, Swine Flu seemed to dissipate on its own, and the cure was soon labeled by critics as "a cure for which there was no known disease."

 

Of course, hindsight is typically 20/20.

[+ Charlie]

You can't say we weren't warned!

[marylander1940]

@samhexum

 

This discussion/thread is 16 years old. Someone born then would be a junior and in highschool now!!

 

He @samhexum knows! We all can see the dates in this thread.

 

You can't say we weren't warned!

 

Unfortunately some missed the point...

[+ WestGuy]

Of course, hindsight is typically 20/20.

Nice pun given that the current pandemic started in 2020.