Airfare Rate Question

[guptasa1]

Hey folks,

 

I'm planning a little weekend trip about a week before Christmas (just to make the holidays a little brighter), and had a curious question about airfare rates.

 

I was checking out airfare rates to my destination, and in the last day, the rate went up ~$40. I wasn't really expecting this, mostly because when I checked the previous week as a "benchmark, it was also at that rate, so I assumed I had a few days to make my decision. (Whoops.)

 

What I'm wondering is, is that rate likely to go down again? (Maybe they raise them on weekends since a lot of people probably book then?) Or should I book now for fear of it going up again! lol.

 

I'm still trying to get good at predictions, and I'm not sure if rates ever go down, or if they only tend to go up. Thanks!

[+ deej]

Book airfare not less than 14 days before travel.

 

Fares go up at 14 days (because you're a last-minute traveler, of course -- they can gouge you because you're desperate). Fares MAY (or may not) come down at the very last minute. That's a pretty big gamble.

 

If you're returning on a Sunday, see what happens if you try a Monday return. The weekend rate can kick in. And, often, if you can add an overnight in a "middle" destination, the price drops like a rock.

 

Airfares are a huge game. I recently saw one flight from LAX->ORD->FLL->LAX go from $1500 to $180 just because I added 1 night extra in Lauderdale.

 

You have to "play" with it when it's late in the game.

[guptasa1]

Hehe. Thanks. Guess I'll play around a bit, but I really don't think I better stay an extra day. (Might consider it though - be nice if I could; lol.) We're not talking about a huge increase - just irked me. =oP

 

And the 14 day rule I thought I knew about, but like I said, the previous week's rate was the same, so I figured I was safe. Guess not - maybe that was just a fluke.

 

Anyways, thanks much for the tips. =o)

[ted]

The rates can change almost at a moments notice-they've been running quite a few "sales" so if one of the promotions expired the rate would go up overnight. If you notice on the websites too, they will not hold the rate with the reservation, you have to actually book the ticket. That being said, the rates in the US are still relatively low in the major markets, but the fares can rise exponentially if you're going to a small city with little competition.

[Guest bighugbearphx]

And be aware that many popular sites don't include airfares from discount carriers, such as Southwest or Jet Blue. Check them out as well, especially for last-minute travel. While early booking fares may be competitive with them, last minute fares are almost always cheaper on discount carriers.

[eastbayguy]

Hi,

>I was checking out airfare rates to my destination, and in the

>last day, the rate went up ~$40. I wasn't really expecting

>this, mostly because when I checked the previous week as a

>"benchmark, it was also at that rate, so I assumed I had a few

>days to make my decision. (Whoops.)

>

>What I'm wondering is, is that rate likely to go down again?

>(Maybe they raise them on weekends since a lot of people

>probably book then?) Or should I book now for fear of it

>going up again! lol.

 

Air fares lately are increasingly unpredictable. As Deej notes, if you are within the 14 day window, the price is more apt to increase. Check the inventory on the flights you want, see if they're full or not. If the flights are pretty full, don't expect the price to drop.

 

If your itinerary allows some flexibility, try Priceline. Use biddingfortravel.com as a guide for the strategy to use on Priceline. You may end up with a less than ideal route or times, but you'll likely get something close to the price you want. There is a link above to Hooboy's Discount Travel. I've gotten better results via Priceline using biddingfortravel as a guide.

 

What with Christmas looming, don't expect the price to drop. Families are increasingly willing to adjust their Christmas celebrations around the weirdness of airfares.

 

Good luck.

 

--EBG

[nate_sf]

The risk in waiting any longer is not only may the rate not go back down, but the flight could get booked up and/or the rate could climb even more. But then again, it could go back down...! x( It really does vary minute by minute... the airlines have whole departments of people whose job is to make these continual adjustments, so you never know where things will turn out.

 

One of the oddest fares I booked recently involved a trip to Honolulu via Portland for me and my boss at my day job. Our ulitmate destination was Honolulu but we had to go up to Portland first for an interview; however, there are no direct flights from Portland to Honolulu so we had to return to SF after our interview in Portland and catch an evening flight to Honolulu. But believe it or not, the Portland-Honolulu flight, with a stop in SF to change planes, was actually CHEAPER than flying from SF to Honolulu on the EXACT SAME evening flight. I guess someone somewhere figured out that there was a stonger market demand for flying to Hawaii from San Francisco than from Portland, so the prices were set accordingly.

 

And yes, the fares can change by the minute. On another trip, again for me and the boss, I booked the first ticket but forgot to indicate two tickets instead of the default 1 ticket, so after I finished booking the first ticket I went back to book the other ticket, and the price had already gone up... all within about two minutes of booking the first ticket.

 

Needless to say this all crazy-making. I'd say if you can find a halfway decent fare and you've looked around at the discount flights as well, better just book it and don't look back!

[+ Oliver]

>Needless to say this all crazy-making. I'd say if you can

find a halfway decent fare and you've looked around at the

discount flights as well, better just book it and don't look

back!>

 

Had a similar experience early this year - I had a voucher from America West so I thought I would use it to fly first class from Columbus to San Francisco and back. $1100 for the round-trip through Las Vegas - only paid $100 with the voucher. Just for the heck of it I checked to see what a similar flight to just Las Vegas would be. $1900 for the same flight on the same plane!!! And not going as far!

 

It is crazy - I don't want to buy stock in the company, I just want a reasonable ticket!

[Boston Guy]

It's almost impossible to give a good answer to your question without knowing more information, especially the route you are looking to fly.

 

Airfares used to be very predictable but that simply isn't true anymore. For example, lower fares used to be available for most routes 14 days in advance, with even lower fares 21 days in advance. And most discount fares have required a Saturday night stay for quite some time now. None of that holds now, at least on some routes.

 

For example, you can walk up to the US Air counter at LaGuardia on any day of the week and buy a round-trip ticket to Fort Lauderdale for roughly $150, with no restrictions. You could fly down one day and fly back the next if you wanted. This is an example of US Air's "GO Fares", but similar rates now exist at all of the metropolitan NYC airports on a variety of carriers as they try to compete with US Air. Even lower airfares are available between Philadelphia and Fort Lauderdale.

 

The carriers are trying to survive and are using lots of different strategies in different markets, so where you want to fly to and from will make a difference. Great last-minute fares, especially on weekends, seem to be available on lots of routes these days. And anyone who wants to fly over a weekend at the last minute should definitely check out the E-Fares available at the different carriers, especially United. United posts efares (including domestic and international efares) on their Website most weeks (except holiday periods) or will email them to you. They're generally available early Wednesday morning and can represent real bargains for people with the desire to travel and some flexibility.

 

Finally, there's so much code-sharing going on now that the same seats can be for sale simultaneously at several different airlines, often for radically different prices. For example, suppose you want to fly from New York to LA. United and Continental (among others) have nonstops. But those United flights are also sold by US Air, using US Air flight numbers, often for substantially different prices. And the Continental flights will be sold by Northwest and Delta, using Northwest and Delta flight numbers. The prices will often be the same, but I've seen US Air sell United seats for 60% less than United was asking for the same flights. So checking multiple airline Web sites is definitely worth the effort if you're seeking a lower fare. Simply bookmark the different sites and then price the same route on each. You'll probably be quite surprised at what you see.

 

And don't make the mistake of only using Orbitz or other similar sites. Orbitz is great and often shows up real bargains. But I've often seen the lowest fare quoted by Orbitz be undercut by the airline's actual Web site, sometimes by a subtantial amount. Orbitz will generally give you a good ballpark in terms of the kinds of prices available on a route and I often check it first. But spending five minutes looking at actual airline sites will usually be fruitful.

 

BG

[OneFinger]

You've had some very good answers. But, for the best air fares, I'll usually go through a travel agent. There's no fee for me to use an agent (they are paid by the airlines).

 

A major travel agency usually has what are known as "consolidator" fares. These are blocks of seats that the agency buys at a great discount - usually much, much lower than any advertised prices. I've found that these consolidator fares are generally $50 to $100 less than the lowest advertised fares.

 

You can also get better deals through the travel agency on travel packages. Once I got the cheaper airfare because it was bundled with hotel and rental car. I had no intention of using the car and didn't even pick it up. But they couldn't get me the best airfare/hotel rates without the car reservation. The price I paid for airfare, hotel, and the unused rental car was $150 cheaper than the price of airfare and hotel separately.

[guptasa1]

Thanks for all the tips, folks. =o) I may have to consider the travel agent route eventually if it can really save that much money. Didn't realize that.

 

As to the other tips, I usually do check multiple sites (Orbitz, Expedia, the airline, etc.) and do my research before booking.

 

What I finally ended up doing after wrestling with it is going ahead and booking it. If it goes back down, I lose a few bucks, but if it goes up, hey - I'm alright. =oP And since it IS so close to Christmas, don't think I dare gamble.

 

Crazy about how routes can affect price and shorter routes are more expensive. I never realized that.

 

Thanks for all the great tips. Learned a lot. =o)