Jump to content

Is Florida real estate bubble about to burst?


Recommended Posts

LOL - Welcome to Florida 


'We do not have insurance. We have an insurance bill': Condos hit with 563% rate increase
Tom Baker has written to all 160 Florida state lawmakers as well as 15 news organizations about condo owners dealing with huge insurance rate hikes.

Read in USA TODAY: https://apple.news/ANAoDU0JKSfuT2a22MM0OnQ


Shared from Apple News

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...
On 11/22/2023 at 9:27 PM, Bokomaru said:

Unlike most of the country, South Florida has a bright line beyond which it cannot develop. It’s called the Everglades and it’s the reason that Ft Laud is now building UP. The lack of property for development will very much help support the market there, which has a supply shortage. Prices might be inflated, but the days of a huge, cyclical crash are nowhere to be seen.  
Insurance increases are certainly a real issue. But please note that home owners are protected from large increases in their  property taxes. A 3% max increase for your primary residence has been state law for decades. So no one is getting priced out of their home due to tax increases from increasing valuations.

Unless I'm reading incorrectly, the 3% cap is annual so property taxes could go up 3% each year forever. That is still good for existing homeowers of course. I wouldn't own property in Florida because of insurance issues, storms/flooding (there's no point buying inland in that state) and the unmentionable topic. 

Edited by Frequentflier
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...
On 4/26/2024 at 11:57 AM, samhexum said:

I've been eyeing properties for sale in Fort Lauderdale, and I'm happy to find lower asking prices.  However, properties on my wish list and in my price range are still very hard to find.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd be so nervous about buying in Florida right now.  Even if you find a great price on a property, you never know how much your homeowners might increase in the future or if the insurance company will require you to make costly improvements (like replacing your roof).  Condo owners are doubly at risk because their individual homeowners premium might increase as well as the building's policy, which will cause the HOA to shoot up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I live in Ft.Lauderdale and this all caught up to me this year.    My car and condo insurance bundle increased 30%.   The condo association was hit with 50% insurance increase.   Our fees went up $200.      There is no reason to believe these kind of increases won’t happen again next year.  That’s the scary part.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, BSR said:

I'd be so nervous about buying in Florida right now.  Even if you find a great price on a property, you never know how much your homeowners might increase in the future or if the insurance company will require you to make costly improvements (like replacing your roof).  Condo owners are doubly at risk because their individual homeowners premium might increase as well as the building's policy, which will cause the HOA to shoot up.

I'm the type of guy to make sure I have a safe roof, hurricane windows, etc., even before an insurance company tells me.  Regular home maintenance is a priority.  Paint before it needs it, proactively clean out the sewers, replace all the smoke detectors and bathroom fans every decade (too many fires are started by overheated bathroom fans), replace plumbing fixtures at the first sign of corrosion, etc.

Life is too short to not live in a place I like and can afford.  My priority for my next home is a water view and a swimming pool and warm weather.  I know that I need to budget to pay the pool man, the landscape man, and the insurance man.  But that's what I'm working hard for now... To afford those things in my next home.

Right now I live in Las Vegas, with some of the lowest insurance premiums, property taxes, and maintenance costs in the country.  (Thank you for no snow, hurricanes, or wild fires).  But life's too short to live in a desert all my life.  I'm saving and investing money now while I live in a low cost area, to be able to afford a nicer view and location and amenities when I'm retired and spend more time at home.

Edited by Vegas_Millennial
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Parts of Florida are like buying gold bars:  New property isn't being created and existing prices are only going up.

That said, you always run the risk of it being wiped off the map during hurricane season.

There's also coming to grips with what it'll cost to insure and upkeep.

But...  If you can swing all of that, Florida can be a spectacular investment.

I just wouldn't want to live there full-time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I keep reading and hearing horror stories about Florida real estate.  My cousin owns a condo in Naples and his monthly charges (HOA, property taxes, insurance) has gone from 2k a month to 4k a month in the last year.  It's a shame.  Florida is beautiful in the fall and winter months.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, augustus said:

Florida is beautiful in the fall and winter months.  

not anymore.  the times of year when the weather was beautiful (December - April) now routinely get storms, heat & high humidity.  It seems like July/August 
There are the occasional perfect days, but not months of beautiful weather.

plus, the traffic in S Florida is about the worst in the entire country.  the regular flooding of certain areas now makes it worse 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0u0yXNkEUg

Edited by SouthOfTheBorder
Link to comment
Share on other sites

the Florida real-estate situation is deteriorating quickly. 

Doesnt  matter if you attribute the insurance crisis to climate change or litigation - it’s happening, and it’s affecting home prices

seems to be far worse for condo owners as they really aren’t in control of their own properties - they are controlled by HOAs.  The HOAs are under new legal requirements to keep reserves at levels to deal with catastrophes and double-digit increases for HOA insurance costs.  Then personal homeowners insurance that may be required by any mortgage holder which is also increasing double digits.  All combined it’s a nightmare scenario.  Lots of older people with paid off condos are getting priced out of their units as they can no longer afford HOA fees & assessments- and nobody wants to buy those units either as the numbers don’t make any sense.

Single family homes under same pressure if a bank has a mortgage - insurance must be in place. 
The Florida legislature doesn’t appear capable of any effective litigation/insurance reform as they’re too busy on other things - and it may not be fixable at all if litigation is not the core problem.

 https://apple.news/AsxX77qsnQQydRDuIKGYU0w
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

the Florida real-estate situation is deteriorating quickly. 

Doesnt  matter if you attribute the insurance crisis to climate change or litigation - it’s happening, and it’s affecting home prices

seems to be far worse for condo owners as they really aren’t in control of their own properties - they are controlled by HOAs.  The HOAs are under new legal requirements to keep reserves at levels to deal with catastrophes and double-digit increases for HOA insurance costs.  Then personal homeowners insurance that may be required by any mortgage holder which is also increasing double digits.  All combined it’s a nightmare scenario.  Lots of older people with paid off condos are getting priced out of their units as they can no longer afford HOA fees & assessments- and nobody wants to buy those units either as the numbers don’t make any sense.

Single family homes under same pressure if a bank has a mortgage - insurance must be in place. 
The Florida legislature doesn’t appear capable of any effective litigation/insurance reform as they’re too busy on other things - and it may not be fixable at all if litigation is not the core problem.

 https://apple.news/AsxX77qsnQQydRDuIKGYU0w
 

 

Whew... At least something is happening to put less pressure on home and condo prices, and to encourage some people to leave the state.  There's just so many people moving to Florida from California and New York that there's not enough middle class or upper class housing for everyone who wants to live there.

Edited by Vegas_Millennial
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

there's not enough middle class or upper class housing for everyone who wants to live there.

true - there are lots of stupid people

the only people who think Florida is great are people who have never lived in Florida

lots of places other than California, Florida & Texas - that don't have the same problems
when insurance is no longer available and/or cost-prohibitive - the bottom drops out on housing that is based upon bank lending.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

lots of places other than California, Florida & Texas - that don't have the same problems
when insurance is no longer available and/or cost-prohibitive - the bottom drops out on housing that is based upon bank lending.

Thankfully, the share of all-cash buyers in January 2024 was at its highest since 2014, accounting for 32% of home sales.

California, on the other hand, has the least share of all-cash buyers and is the most suspectable to the risks of bank lending.

"All-cash purchases are most prevalent in Florida, least prevalent in the Bay Area" (Forbes).

Florida cities of West Palm Beach (52%), Jacksonville (45.3%), Miami (45%), and Fort Lauderdale (43.5%) accounted for 4 of the 5 cities with the highest share of all-cash home sales in 2023.

WWW.NAR.REALTOR

Since October 2022, all-cash home buyers who did not finance their recent home purchase...

 

WWW.FORBES.COM

Expensive West Coast metros dominate the list of places with the lowest share of all...
NATIONALMORTGAGEPROFESSIONAL.COM

A new report from Redfin shows nearly one third (31.4%) of U.S. home purchases were paid with...

 

 

 

Edited by Vegas_Millennial
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

There's just so many people moving to Florida from California and New York that there's not enough middle class or upper class housing for everyone who wants to live there.

Florida has plenty of options for the wealthy.

I can link a dozen properties in Orlando, Jupiter, the Keys, Palm Beach and Miami that are $8+ million and ready to move into.  

Middle-class homes, a little less so, but they're still there.  $500k-$2m.  All depends on where you want to live in FL.  The further north you go, the bigger and better the deals.

The real problem is for those who bought into the condo life with the HOA issues to match.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BenjaminNicholas said:

I can link a dozen properties in Orlando, Jupiter, the Keys, Palm Beach and Miami that are $8+ million and ready to move into

perspective - to afford an $8M house, you have to be worth $30M in reality, an "ultra high net-worth" individual. And typically, these people own several homes. 

there are 129,750 people worth $30M in the US.  Or, .00039% of the population - way beyond the 1%.

I get Florida as a tax-haven if you really don't want to live there.  As an investment- those days are over.  

i sold last year at a very good time for sellers.  Between rising carrying costs, increase in equity & the general decline of quality of life - it was a very easy decision.   Basically, take the money & run.  The new buyer of my place will have $50,000 in HOA & property taxes in year 1, after a cash purchase - and it wasnt anything considered high-end.  the buyer just wrote a blank check for spiraling fees & taxes

owning real estate in Florida in Florida is like owning a boat - there are 2 good days, the day you buy it & the day you sell it.

Edited by SouthOfTheBorder
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I retired to Florida after 35 years in San Francisco.   My property taxes are far less than 1k per year.  No state income taxes.  HOA fees 75% less than I was paying for rent in California.  Yes, Insurance is an issue for many, but not everyone.  Call me stupid if you want, but I’m very happy with my decision to live here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, paulsf said:

My property taxes are far less than 1k per year.

thats pretty much unheard of - but not impossible.  It doesn’t reflect current prices for sales of single-family homes or condos.  A very low HOA means either no amenities or hundreds of apartments w few amenities.  Probably also means an older building. 

Broward County (Ft Lauderdale) property taxes are about 1.985% of assessed value.  Assessed value is depending on when you bought the property, at what price & whether it’s homestead or not.  

Median listing price for a condo in Ft L is $500,000.  That means $9,928 in property taxes.  There are a few coops in Florida and those may have much lower property taxes. 

At the end - it’s all about quality of life and what you’re willing to put up with & pay. 

FYI - you can browse property taxes at the Broward County Tax Assessor website with only an address - you’ll also get complete sales history with prices & ownership, same with any other county in Florida.  They also have a tax calculator to show what your estimated property taxes will be on any new purchase w any deductions that may apply. 

google “Florida Zombie Condos” & see what comes up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

and then there is the weather -

Miami just experienced its 2 hottest days ever recorded in May. the heat index was (heat & humidity) was 112 on both Saturday & Sunday. Key West was 115 on May 15.  Those type temps are unusual even in August. 

Not going to be a good summer down there.  

‘Insane’ Heat Has Been Scorching Miami. It’s Not Even June.
 

WWW.NYTIMES.COM

The hottest May on record for the city has experts worried about the summer — and hurricane season — to come.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Yea…Florida just isn’t the place to be anymore. Summers have gotten way too hot and winters are seeing increasing amounts of rain and cloudy weather. South Florida used to be reliably lovely from November through April. No longer the case. 
 

I still go to South Florida for Johnson’s…but I really don’t like spending my gay dollars in a state that doesn’t respect or value me. I wish there were more options elsewhere. 
 

weather and politics aside, I don’t know how an average Joe can even afford to live in South Florida now.    Who’s going to wait on and provide services to all the people with multi million dollar homes if an average person can no longer afford to live there?   Inflation has been running higher in Florida than any other state for a while now. 
 

I’m glad I lived in Florida when I did (the 1990’s) and got to experience the lovely winters. I would hate to be stuck there now given the plethora of horrors going on now. 

Edited by EZEtoGRU
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The salaries there need to keep growing to match those prices... Those who bought before 2019 and sold in 2022-2023 made a lot of money. Btw - you can browse property taxes at the Broward County Tax Assessor website with only an address - you’ll also get complete sales history with prices & ownership, same with any other county in Florida.  They also have a tax calculator to show what your estimated property taxes will be on any new purchase w any deductions that may apply

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...