More interesting data regarding Covid

[+ WilliamM]

The president of Brazil has tested positive for coronavirus.

[Bucky]

The president of Brazil has tested positive for coronavirus.

 

 

Do we want him to get as sick as Boris Johnson to teach him a lesson? Or is that just mean?

[dcman]

Was at the bathouse yesterday afternoon and there were fifty 70s-years-old, and at least ten 90yrsold there. If they ever catch covid I'd love to be a fly when the doctor ask "do you know where your got it?"

Most will likely be too sick to talk or already expired.

[mike carey]

This is posted as part of the ABC Radio National's 'Fictions' feature but it was aired as an account of the experiences of a paramedic in these times. It sounds authentic but it fits into the style of short audio pieces that they post in Fictions. It certainly sounds like a realistic representation of the sort of situations a paramedic would face.

https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/lifematters/corona-tales-%E2%80%94-d-is-for-danger/12336230

[thickornotatall]

Do we want him to get as sick as Boris Johnson to teach him a lesson? Or is that just mean?

Just Desserts...full on!

[+ bigjoey]

Article on why the infections are going up faster than the deaths:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/08/four-theories-about-why-americas-second-covid-wave-isnt-quite-as-deadly-as-the-first-yet/

[RealAvalon]

What's the phrase ... necessity is the mother of invention. Georgia Tech students have come up with a county by county map, so you can calculate your risk of infection from attending a public event, considering the local COVID infection rates.

 

https://cos.gatech.edu/news/georgia-tech-researchers-release-county-level-calculator-estimate-risk-covid-19-exposure-us?utm_medium=email&utm_source=dailydigest&utm_campaign=july8&utm_content=map&fbclid=IwAR00E5chYbjvyRza1F9M1ik4aQYCOuRm37od3SwDroHeWO0n7DVVXnDo39k

[RealAvalon]

Article on why the infections are going up faster than the deaths:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/08/four-theories-about-why-americas-second-covid-wave-isnt-quite-as-deadly-as-the-first-yet/

That would be expected. Health systems actively learn and adapt treatment protocols to improve health outcomes, e.g. we've learned that having a patient on his/her/their stomach rather than back, improves outcomes.

Edited July 9, 2020 by RealAvalon

[Ajac]

Unlike Sweden we are dealing with a bat shit crazy leader who doesn't know what the fuck he is doing. He tries to pretend he knows better than medical experts. I am also getting sick of this pandemic being compared to the yearly flu. Sure people die of that every year, not in these numbers. They are finding out now when some people have been showing no terrible symptoms e-xrays actually show lung damage. How does that play out long term? Yes CS I am so glad you are not brainwashed by our hysterical "news" media. Which news media? CNN, Fox, Britebart? All that being said I just had my Niece diagnosed with Covid so if any of you send a shitty response be forewarned I am not in the mood.

[RealAvalon]

Unlike Sweden we are dealing with a bat shit crazy leader who doesn't know what the fuck he is doing. He tries to pretend he knows better than medical experts. I am also getting sick of this pandemic being compared to the yearly flu. Sure people die of that every year, not in these numbers. They are finding out now when some people have been showing no terrible symptoms e-xrays actually show lung damage. How does that play out long term? Yes CS I am so glad you are not brainwashed by our hysterical "news" media. Which news media? CNN, Fox, Britebart? All that being said I just had my Niece diagnosed with Covid so if any of you send a shitty response be forewarned I am not in the mood.

And, whatever complaints people might have about masks, the economic shut down, schools etc. remember, there is another pandemic coming, we don't know from where and we don't know when. But it is coming. Are we better prepared for the next one, than we were/are with this one?

[former lurker]

Unlike Sweden we are dealing with a bat shit crazy leader who doesn't know what the fuck he is doing. He tries to pretend he knows better than medical experts. I am also getting sick of this pandemic being compared to the yearly flu. Sure people die of that every year, not in these numbers. They are finding out now when some people have been showing no terrible symptoms e-xrays actually show lung damage. How does that play out long term? Yes CS I am so glad you are not brainwashed by our hysterical "news" media. Which news media? CNN, Fox, Britebart? All that being said I just had my Niece diagnosed with Covid so if any of you send a shitty response be forewarned I am not in the mood.

 

First off, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your niece. Second, I agree with everything you've said. The concerted campaign in the media to demonize the science and medical experts, and to trivialize the pandemic, is frightening. We now live in a world where facts are spun for political purpose into oblivion. It's the modern equivalent of the Nazi's propaganda -- "the big lie", if told often enough and insistently becomes reality for so many people. Trump has been an obstacle to dealing productively with the pandemic, and his minions are working overtime to demonize anyone who points out that he's talking bullshit.

[RealAvalon]

First off, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your niece. Second, I agree with everything you've said. The concerted campaign in the media to demonize the science and medical experts, and to trivialize the pandemic, is frightening. We now live in a world where facts are spun for political purpose into oblivion. It's the modern equivalent of the Nazi's propaganda -- "the big lie", if told often enough and insistently becomes reality for so many people. Trump has been an obstacle to dealing productively with the pandemic, and his minions are working overtime to demonize anyone who points out that he's talking bullshit.

Reminder to Trump/GOP - you are dealing with the SAME virus that everyone else is.

 

Other countries are opening up with out massive death counts. Coordinated planning and implementation of testing and tracing and treatment programs have worked other places work.

 

"Learning to live with community spread" is the white flag of defeat.

[Ajac]

First off, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your niece. Second, I agree with everything you've said. The concerted campaign in the media to demonize the science and medical experts, and to trivialize the pandemic, is frightening. We now live in a world where facts are spun for political purpose into oblivion. It's the modern equivalent of the Nazi's propaganda -- "the big lie", if told often enough and insistently becomes reality for so many people. Trump has been an obstacle to dealing productively with the pandemic, and his minions are working overtime to demonize anyone who points out that he's talking bullshit.

First off, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your niece. Second, I agree with everything you've said. The concerted campaign in the media to demonize the science and medical experts, and to trivialize the pandemic, is frightening. We now live in a world where facts are spun for political purpose into oblivion. It's the modern equivalent of the Nazi's propaganda -- "the big lie", if told often enough and insistently becomes reality for so many people. Trump has been an obstacle to dealing productively with the pandemic, and his minions are working overtime to demonize anyone who points out that he's talking bullshit.

Not to mention his minions using this horrible situation to line their pockets.

[SirBillybob]

What's the phrase ... necessity is the mother of invention. Georgia Tech students have come up with a county by county map, so you can calculate your risk of infection from attending a public event, considering the local COVID infection rates.

 

https://cos.gatech.edu/news/georgia-tech-researchers-release-county-level-calculator-estimate-risk-covid-19-exposure-us?utm_medium=email&utm_source=dailydigest&utm_campaign=july8&utm_content=map&fbclid=IwAR00E5chYbjvyRza1F9M1ik4aQYCOuRm37od3SwDroHeWO0n7DVVXnDo39k

This is also exactly how I have been calculating it for a few posts here related to pubs and planes. Multiplying the rolling daily average per 100,000 by 10 for ascertainment bias and again by 15 for contagion period, yielding a proportion infected out of 1. Subtract from 1 to get proportion uninfected. To calculate probability of one infected: 1 minus [uninfected to the power of number of people in gathering]. Multiply by 100 to get standard percentage.

 

Obviously it is not exactly infection risk. It is probability of someone in attendance infected. Mingling would mean greater risk than if everyone is basically stationary.

 

I had arbitrarily chosen the ascertainment bias as 10-fold. Now I feel more anchored in that.

[SirBillybob]

Brazil just edged out USA for population-adjusted daily new cases.

[Todd Jenkins]

It seems that no one is mentioning the protests/riots. Surely those have contributed to the rise in cases...

[former lurker]

It seems that no one is mentioning the protests/riots. Surely those have contributed to the rise in cases...

 

Perhaps, but likely not a serious factor given that the most significant surges in cases are in states with less of the protests and smaller crowds at those protests.

[Islesguy]

It seems that no one is mentioning the protests/riots. Surely those have contributed to the rise in cases...

If this were true, where is the spike of cases in the Northeast and DC?

[Todd Jenkins]

If this were true, where is the spike of cases in the Northeast and DC?

So. if there WAS NOT a spike with THOUSANDS screaming – some with masks, some without – it is time to open up things that you can do OUTSIDE: concerts, festivals, etc.

[RealAvalon]

It seems that no one is mentioning the protests/riots. Surely those have contributed to the rise in cases...

Apparently not very much.

 

If people would agree to take personal responsibility and wear masks, there are lots of things that could be done to bring life more back to normal. Other than big crowded indoor events, things are (mostly) back to normal - in a socially distanced sort of way - where I am.

Edited July 13, 2020 by RealAvalon

[+ keroscenefire]

It seems that no one is mentioning the protests/riots. Surely those have contributed to the rise in cases...

 

There is evidence that the protests did not contribute to a rise in cases. A study done in more than 300 cities compared cities with large protests to "control" cities without large protests and found that there was no increase in COVID in the cities with protests. Partially the study shows that generally people stayed home in cities with protests in part to avoid potential violence. This was confirmed using cell-phone tracking data. So even though there were obviously large groups outdoors protesting, even more people stayed home to avoid the protests and the overall effect was no increase in COVID cases.

 

And while the study doesn't show this, there is probably some truth to the virus not being able to as easily spread outdoors and with many people wearing masks. I went out to one day of protests in Denver and was pretty amazed by the mask-wearing and social distancing I saw. I would say at least 75-80 percent of people wore masks and the protest went down a major city street so people generally were able to keep a bit of distance from each other.

[former lurker]

So. if there WAS NOT a spike with THOUSANDS screaming – some with masks, some without – it is time to open up things that you can do OUTSIDE: concerts, festivals, etc.

 

Not quite. A lot depends on the approach taken in the particular locale. In those areas where the local officials and the public have taken the virus seriously, and consistently practiced the mitigation efforts (distancing, wearing masks, self-quarantining when warranted), there have not been spikes associated with large-scale protests. That is in part because the protest organizers and attendees are not denying the seriousness of the virus, and are acting to mitigate the risks. In contrast, the large gatherings in settings where denial of the virus and the threats it poses is part of the thinking (i.e., Trump rallies, reopening bars in states where the elected officials have downplayed the seriousness of the virus) have been accompanied by increased incidents of the virus.

 

Can largescale outdoor events occur in a responsible way, with masks and distancing practiced? Yes. Are they likely to happen without a spike in cases, especially if the attending population are looking to make a point that the virus's threat is not real and act as if it's not, probably not.

[Todd Jenkins]

There is evidence that the protests did not contribute to a rise in cases.

 

And, there is absolutely NO political agenda behind the fact that 'evidence that the protests did not contribute to a rise in cases' ??? I find it extremely hard to believe.

 

It is hypocritical for 'outdoor gatherings to be limited to 25' yet allow thousands to march together.

 

Don't get me wrong, I 100% SUPPORT the BLACK LIVES MATTER movement and the movement to end racism. HOWEVER, you can't have it one way for this reason and other way for this reason.

 

Either we CAN HAVE large public gatherings with proper mask wearing, etc. or we CAN'T HAVE large public gatherings with proper mask wearing. And, for the record, the people protesting in my state were about half wearing masks and absolutely NOT practicing social distancing.

[Islesguy]

And, there is absolutely NO political agenda behind the fact that 'evidence that the protests did not contribute to a rise in cases' ??? I find it extremely hard to believe.

 

It is hypocritical for 'outdoor gatherings to be limited to 25' yet allow thousands to march together.

 

Don't get me wrong, I 100% SUPPORT the BLACK LIVES MATTER movement and the movement to end racism. HOWEVER, you can't have it one way for this reason and other way for this reason.

 

Either we CAN HAVE large public gatherings with proper mask wearing, etc. or we CAN'T HAVE large public gatherings with proper mask wearing. And, for the record, the people protesting in my state were about half wearing masks and absolutely NOT practicing social distancing.

I'm no expert, but I think of there is currently low community spreading, appropriate mask wearing and capacity topped at 30-40%, I don't see an issue with allowing for open air concerts and sports attendance. I would also probably want to restrict loud cheering but with proper distancing, it might be fine.

 

The biggest problem is still the number of places in the US where the virus is spreading rapidly and where testing isn't sufficient/fast enough to trace and isolate new cases. Until positivity rates are <\=2% for a sustained period, there likely too many undiagnosed or asymptomatic people to have large gatherings where everyone is in one place for multiple hours.

[+ keroscenefire]

And, there is absolutely NO political agenda behind the fact that 'evidence that the protests did not contribute to a rise in cases' ??? I find it extremely hard to believe.

 

It is hypocritical for 'outdoor gatherings to be limited to 25' yet allow thousands to march together.

 

Don't get me wrong, I 100% SUPPORT the BLACK LIVES MATTER movement and the movement to end racism. HOWEVER, you can't have it one way for this reason and other way for this reason.

 

Either we CAN HAVE large public gatherings with proper mask wearing, etc. or we CAN'T HAVE large public gatherings with proper mask wearing. And, for the record, the people protesting in my state were about half wearing masks and absolutely NOT practicing social distancing.

 

The study is a real study that uses epidemic data and cell-phone tracking and sophisticated mathematical modeling. It is a pre-print but has been submitted for peer-review. The study was written by five respected health economist professors. You can see it here. I think their conclusions that the protests in many large cities caused many non-protestors to stay home makes a lot of sense. I mean in Denver, downtown and Capitol Hill were basically ghost towns except for the protestors. People didn't want to go out because they feared violence. And the cell-phone tracking data shows that while obviously the protestors were out protesting, many more people stayed in, containing the COVID pandemic overall.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with your assessments. I too still don't think it's a great idea to have large gatherings of any kind, but you also have to be open to the evidence that in the case of the recent BLM protests, there is evidence that they did not increase COVID-19 transmission. Whether that would be true now that the virus has spread more widely, I am not sure.